in in sout uthern hern Portugal tugal un under r cl clim - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ADAP2CLIMA Crete 24/06/2019 Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Cincias da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal Cathy thy Kurz rz Be Besson* on* Vuln lnerab erabilit ility y of the he ma main in rai ainf nfed ed ag agrof

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SLIDE 1

Vuln lnerab erabilit ility y of the he ma main in rai ainf nfed ed ag agrof

  • forestr

estry spec ecies ies in in sout uthern hern Portugal tugal un under r cl clim imate ate ch chan ange ge sce cenarios narios RCP P 4.5 an and RCP P 8.5

Cathy thy Kurz rz Be Besson*

  • n*

Inês s Gomes mes Marques ues Rita a M. Cardoso doso Carlos los Resendes, endes, Pedro

  • M. M. Soares

es

Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

ADAP2CLIMA Crete 24/06/2019

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SLIDE 2

OBJECTIVES

  • Identify rainfed agroforestry systems

relying on resident groundwater to cope with extended droughts

  • Predict their evolution under climate

change cenários RCP 4.5 and 8.5

  • Focus on semi-arid Alentegio region

PIEZA IEZAGR GRO O PROJE OJECT PTDC/AAG-REC/7046/2014

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SLIDE 3

6th IFN (2010) GIS

MATERIAL & METODOS

Main rainfed agroforestry species Kernel density (Heatmap) Occurence | Tree cover %

Quercus ilex Pinus pinea Quercus suber

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SLIDE 4

PET modified Hargreave equation, review Talaee et al. 2014

  • AI = P / PET

(ye yearl arly y me means s 30-yr yr average age)

  • IOS = T / P

(mo month ths s M, J, J, A 30-yr average)

MATERIAL & METHODS |

Tested Predictors

  • SPE

PEI I drou

  • ught

ht index dex, ,

  • 4 omb

mbrot

  • thermic

rmic index dexes s

  • Aridit

idity y index dex

  • Grou
  • und

ndwat ater dept pth

  • Drainag

inage densit nsity

  • Sl

Slop

  • pe
  • Soil

il typ ype

  • Soil

il dept pth Climate Water storage Best predictors (R2= 0.99): Aridity and Ombrothermic índexes

Geographically Weighted Regression model (GWR)

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SLIDE 5

MATERIAL & METHODS | Flowchart

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SLIDE 6

MATERIAL & METHODS

  • 12 regional models,
  • Resolution 0.11º (~11km)
  • Tmin, Tmax, P => AI, IOS
  • 30

30-yr averag erages es

EuroCo

  • Cordex

dex Simulations Simulations

[https://www.euro-cordex.net/index.php.en]

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SLIDE 7

RESULTS | ARIDITY INDEX EVOLUTION

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 1971-2000

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5 Historic toric

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SLIDE 8

RESULTS | ARIDITY INDEX EVOLUTION

Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099

Average 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.44 %

  • 8
  • 16
  • 14

RCP 4.5 Average 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.34 %

  • 12
  • 22
  • 33

RCP 8.5

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SLIDE 9

RESULTS | OMBROTHERMIC INDEX

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 1971-2000

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5 Historic toric

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SLIDE 10

RESULTS | OMBROTHERMIC INDEX EVOLUTION

Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099

Average 3.23 2.56 2.02 1.88 %

  • 21
  • 38
  • 42

RCP 4.5 Average 3.23 2.29 1.80 1.36 %

  • 29
  • 44
  • 58

RCP 8.5

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SLIDE 11

RESULTS | CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION [UNEP

, 2010]

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 1971-2000

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5 Historic toric

HYPER HUMID HUMID DRY SUB-HUMID SEMI-ARID ARID HYPER-ARID

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SLIDE 12

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5 Historic toric

Calibration Simulated 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density

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SLIDE 13

Anomalies in reference to Historical 1971-2000

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5

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SLIDE 14

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density

Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099

Root square of Kernel Density

Average 20.3 17.0 15.3 15.4 %

  • 16
  • 24
  • 24

Median 19.8 16.5 13.5 13.4 %

  • 17
  • 32
  • 32

RCP 4.5 Average 20.3 16.1 14.9 14.8 %

  • 21
  • 26
  • 27

Median 19.8 15.1 13.0 11.7 %

  • 23
  • 34
  • 41

RCP 8.5

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SLIDE 15

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density

Density 0-5 0.005 0.13 0.29 0.33 % +13 +29 +33 Density 10-40 0.93 0.73 0.59 0.53 %

  • 22
  • 37
  • 43

RCP 4.5 Density 0-5 0.005 0.22 0.31 0.35 % +22 +31 +35 Density 10-40 0.93 0.65 0.55 0.47 %

  • 30
  • 41
  • 50

RCP 8.5

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SLIDE 16

SUMMARY & PERSPECTIVES

➢ Aridit idity index dex and and omb mbrot

  • thermic

rmic index dex evolut utio ion are coher herent ent with lite teratur rature ➢ We We iden identify tify mor more vulnerable vulnerable area eas wh where wate ater ma manag nagem ement ent sh should

  • uld be

be prior ioritized itized ➢ Regionally ionally, tree densit nsity predic edictions tions agree with expect ectati ations

  • ns and

and literat eratur ure ➢ Exclud ude extensi nsive ve crop

  • p agricu

cultu lture areas as from

  • m mo

mode del ➢ Es Estimate timate unce certai taint nty from

  • m 12

12 Euroc

  • corde

dex mo mode dels ls simu mulat ation ions ➢ Test est stewis stewise model modelling ling appr approach

  • ach with

with ne new clim limate ate ob

  • bser

ervation ation 0.10 10º of

  • f the

he Iberian rian Peninsul insula

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SLIDE 17
  • Cathy

thy Kurz rz Be Besson*

  • n*,

,

  • Inês

s Gome mes s Marques ues ,

  • Rita

a M. Cardoso doso ,

  • Carlos

los Resendes endes ,

  • Pedro
  • M. M. Soares

es

Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

THANK YOU...............

Research supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) through grants and projects

  • PIEZAGRO PTDC/AAG-REC/7046/2014,
  • SOLAR PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014
  • UID/GEO/50019/2019 (Instituto Dom Luiz)
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SLIDE 18

MATERIAL & METHODS

Criteria to build ENSEMBLE [Cardoso et al. 2018]

Eurocordex versus Eobs, AI and IOS

emphasize general errors emphasize distribution’s shape emphasize extreme values

Root mean square error Yule-Kendall skewness Willmott-D score

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SLIDE 19

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE, Aridity Index

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5

T Tests in reference to Historical 1971-2000

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SLIDE 20

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE, Ombrothermic Index

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099

RC RCP P 4.5 RC RCP P 8.5

T Tests in reference to Historical 1971-2000