IMPROVISED INFECTIOUS DEVICES (IID): The Next Generation Terrorist - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IMPROVISED INFECTIOUS DEVICES (IID): The Next Generation Terrorist - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 17, 2023 48 likes •178 views

IMPROVISED INFECTIOUS DEVICES (IID): The Next Generation Terrorist Threat? James R. Campbell, Ph.D., M.P.H. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Natural disaster Likelihood Explosives Bio by Chemical mother

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IMPROVISED INFECTIOUS DEVICES (IID): The Next Generation Terrorist Threat?

James R. Campbell, Ph.D., M.P.H. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

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Likelihood Magnitude of harm Nuclear Chemical Natural disaster Explosives Bio agents Bio by mother nature

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An Influenza“Explosion”

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IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES (IED)

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What is an Improvised Infectious Device?

  • An Improvised Infectious Device (IID) is a

person who “weaponizes” his body by willfully infecting him/herself with a highly communicable infectious disease, and then knowingly infects other people, with the intent of causing mass mortality, morbidity and panic.

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Typical Flu Disease Features

  • Incubation period 1-4 days (average = 2 days)
  • Period of illness 3-7 days
  • Infectious period (virus able to spread person

to person)

– 1-2 days prior to developing symptoms – 3-5 days after developing symptoms (adults)

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Days Required to Circumnavigate the Globe.

Rodrigue, J. (2009) The Geography of Transport Systems

World Population Increase.

Wikipedia (2011)

1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

Millions of People

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Days 24 HRS

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Plausible Improvised Infectious Device Threats

ORGANISM DISEASE CASE FATALITY RATE (%) PRE-PATENT PERIOD (DAYS) PERIOD OF INFECTIVITY Ro MODE OF INFECTION Variola virus smallpox 40 10-14 7-10 days 20 respiratory droplets Yersinia pestis plague 50-100 1-3 18-48 hrs 1.3- 4.4 respiratory droplets SARS virus severe acute respiratory syndrome 15 2-10 8-24 days 3 respiratory droplets H5N1 virus avian influenza >50 1-5 2-10 days unk respiratory droplets Ebola, Marburg virus hemorrhagic fever 25-90 2-21 1-3 weeks var. blood or mucous secretions

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IID?

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“Take-Home Points”

  • Emerging infectious diseases, including bioterrorism, are

transnational, and threaten global health security

  • Weak public health surveillance and poor information

sharing jeopardize global health security

  • Transparency is essential in responding to public health

emergencies of international concern

  • Multilateral, multisectoral cooperation is mandatory
  • Education, education, education!

“By framing infectious diseases as a matter of national security, governments and their people would be better prepared to handle sudden outbreaks that endanger human lives and threaten the existence and survival of nation-states”

  • Caballero-Anthony, 2005
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QUESTIONS?