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Improve Hyundai Home Shopping (Hyundai) Normalize Capital Allocation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Improve Hyundai Home Shopping (Hyundai) Normalize Capital Allocation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Improve Hyundai Home Shopping (Hyundai) Normalize Capital Allocation www.daltoninvestments.com Disclaimer This presentation is published by Dalton Investments solely for informational purposes and is not, and may not be construed as, investment,
Jan 2019 Page 1
This presentation is published by Dalton Investments solely for informational purposes and is not, and may not be construed as, investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice. This presentation has been compiled based on publicly available information (which has not been separately verified by Dalton Investments) and does not: (i) purport to be complete or comprehensive; (ii) constitute an agreement, offer, a solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation to enter into or conclude any transaction or take or refrain from taking any other course of action (wheth er on the terms shown herein or otherwise); or (iii) constitute proxy solicitation or any other similar form of activity, or any advice or recommendation to take or refrain from taking any action or do or refrain from doing any act which would otherw ise constitute proxy solicitation or any other similar form of activity. The market data contained in or utilized for the purposes of preparing this presentation is (unless otherwise specified) as at the end of trading hours on December 31, 2018. Changes may have occurred or ma y occur with respect to such market data and we are not under any obligation to provide any updated or additional information or to correct any inaccuracies in this presentation. The information herein contains “forward-looking statements.” Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include, witho ut limitation, words such as “may,” “will,” “expects,” “believes,” “submits,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “estimates,” “projects,” “targets,” “forecasts,” “seeks,” “could” or the negative of such terms or other varia tions on such terms or comparable terminology. Similarly, statements that describe objectives, plans or goals are forward-looking. Any forward-looking statements are based on current intent, belief, expectat ions, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actua l results to differ materially. Accordingly, you should not rely upon forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results and actual results may vary materially from what is expressed in or indicated b y the forward-looking statements. Many of the statements in this presentation are our beliefs, which are based on its own analysis of publicly available information. Any representation, statement or opinion expressed or implied in this presen tation is provided in good faith but only on the basis that no reliance will be placed on any of the contents herein. You should obtain your own professional advice and conduct your own independent evaluati
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Disclaimer
Jan 2019 Page 2 This document is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute a solicitation of any shares in any investment vehicle managed by Dalton Investments LLC. Such solicitations can only be made to qualified investors by means of the private placement memorandums, which describe, among other things, the risks of making an investment. Additionally, this presentation does not constitute
investment advice of any kind. All of the information in this document relating to Dalton Investments LLC or its affiliates (collectively, “Dalton” or the “Firm”) is communicated solely by Dalton, 1601 Cloverfield Boulevard, Suite 5050 N, Santa Monica, CA 90404, regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). SEC registration does not imply SEC endorsement. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information, or with respect to the terms of any future offer of transactions conforming to the terms hereof. Certain assumptions may have been made in the analysis which resulted in any information and returns/results detailed herein. No representation is made that any results/returns indicated will be achieved or that all assumptions in achieving these returns have been considered or stated. Additional information is available on request. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on market conditions. Unless otherwise indicated, figures presented are preliminary, unaudited, subject to change and do not constitute Dalton’s standard books and records. Any estimates, projections or predictions (including in tabular form) given in this communication are intended to be forward-looking statements. Although Dalton believes that the expectations in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Such estimates are subject to actual known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this communication. Dalton expressly disclaims any
- bligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in its expectations or any change in circumstances upon which such statement is based.
Jan 2019 Page 3
Executive Summary
Our Recommendations to the Directors of Hyundai Home Shopping (“Hyundai”)
Normalize Capital Allocation and Align Interests
- Buyback and cancel shares (preferred) and/or increase dividends;
- $200M and $165M one-off for Hyundai and its de facto subsidiary Hyundai HCN (“HCN”), respectively – which is
approximately half of each company’s net cash equivalents
- Even if Hyundai pays out approximately $200M, it is estimated that Hyundai still would have approximately $200M of
net cash equivalents and that Hyundai annually would generate approximately $180M of operating cash flow
- Even if HCN pays out approximately $165M, it is estimated that HCN still would have approximately $165M of net
cash equivalents and that HCN annually would generate approximately $85M of operating cash flow
- Hyundai is the largest shareholder of HCN with an approximately 38% ownership, and other Hyundai Department
Store affiliates additionally hold an approximately 30% ownership
- If HCN pays out $165M, it is estimated that Hyundai’s share of the payout would be approximately $63M
- Increase annual, regular total payout ratio to 60-80% for Hyundai and 80-100% for HCN
- If the company faces a good investment opportunity that can create “economic value added” even after already making
significant investments, the company may obtain the necessary capital through other means, such as the usage of remaining net cash equivalents, issuance/exchange of stock and/or capital increase or adopting a temporary and flexible approach with capital return to shareholders (share repurchase and cancellation)
- Pay 40-70% of senior management’s annual compensation in restricted shares to align interests of management with
those of minority shareholders;
- Evaluate senior management’s performance primarily based on “economic value added”; and
- Split and merge companies to unlock value and streamline. (But this cannot substitute better capital allocations).
Jan 2019 Page 4
Table of Contents
- Background: Where did the Value Go?
- Root Cause: Poor Capital Allocation
- Our Recommendations
Jan 2019 Page 5
Since Listing in 2010*, Hyundai’s Shareholders Have Lost Approx. 17% (Share Price Change + Dividend Yield)
Source: Bloomberg; *From Sep. 13, 2010 to Nov. 30, 2018
₩80,000 ₩100,000 ₩120,000 ₩140,000 ₩160,000 ₩180,000 ₩200,000 9/13/2010 9/13/2011 9/13/2012 9/13/2013 9/13/2014 9/13/2015 9/13/2016 9/13/2017 9/13/2018
Hyundai’s Share Price (Sep. 13, 2010 to Nov. 30, 2018)
Total Shareholder Return
- 17.0%
Price Change
- 23.5%
Assuming Dividends Reinvested in the Security 6.5%
Jan 2019 Page 6
…..While Hyundai Has Been Making Profits
100% 70% 40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Market Value Right After Listing (Sep. 13th, 2010)** Cumulative Net Income from 2010 4Q to 2018 3Q
Cumulative net income of 70% since listing*
Net cash equivalents*** Cumulative Net Income since listing Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART-Annual Reports, etc. *From Sep. 13, 2010 to Nov. 30, 2018 **MV was approx. $1.4B ($1 = ₩1,120 applied for the entire presentation) based on share price of ₩130,500 at Sep. 13, 2010. ***We estimate that most has not been used.
If net cash (40%) and cumulative net income (70%) were paid out to shareholders, total return would have been > 100%
Jan 2019 Page 7
Korea National Pension Service Has Suffered Estimated Losses of $22M (-14%) Over the Last 6 Years
First holding date of recent major ownership
- Oct. ‘12
Current position (% of outstanding number of shares) 12.0% Estimated average cost basis per share 122,191 Current share price (as of Nov. 30th, 2018) 99,800
₩80,000 ₩100,000 ₩120,000 ₩140,000 ₩160,000 ₩180,000 ₩200,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 12/4/2012 12/4/2013 12/4/2014 12/4/2015 12/4/2016 12/4/2017
NPS’ holding of Hyundai Home Shopping
Position (Left) Share Price (Right)
Source: Bloomberg; Based on Nov. 30, 2018; Gain/Loss = ((Current share price – Estimated average cost basis per share) x Current number of share holdings) + (Dividend per share of each year from first year of purchase to 2017 x number of share holdings at each Sep. 30 from first year of purchase to 2017)), If first year purchase was done after Sep. 30, applied Dec. 31 number of share holdings for that year.
Jan 2019 Page 8
Minority Shareholders Own Approx. 60% of Hyundai
41% 32% 27%
Hyundai Ownership Estimate (As of Dec. 31, 2018)
Foreign Investors Korean Investors Hyundai Department Store Group
Minority Shareholders
Source: FN Guide – Company Guide; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Report, etc.
Jan 2019 Page 9
Hyundai is Valued at Less Than the Sum of Its Net Cash Equivalents and Equity Portfolio
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Reports, etc. *Enterprise Value / Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization; Subtracted all net cash equivalents and equity stake values on parent basis to calculate Enterprise Value
- 3x
- 2x
- 1x
0x 1x 2x
Hyundai Parent EV/EBITDA* Valuation (‘18 Nov. 30)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Market Value Estimated Net Cash Eq. & Stakes Value
Hyundai Market Value vs Estimated Net Cash
- Eq. & Equity Stakes
Value (‘18 Nov. 30)
Net Cash Eq. Stakes Value
Valued at Negative Value. LESS THAN FREE! 0.5x 0.7x 0.9x 1.1x 1.3x 1.5x 1.7x 1.9x 2.1x 2.3x 2.5x
Hyundai Price to Book Ratio
Jan 2019 Page 10
We Believe Hyundai is Valued at Approx. 60% Discount to Its Estimated Intrinsic Value*
Source: Korea Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Reports, etc. *We did not apply a holding discount because Hyundai has de facto control in most of the cases and also has the capacity to narrow the discount (e.g., spin-off). Selling at premium may be possible because some appear undervalued (e.g., below the tangible book value). Moreover, calculating a holding discount can be very arbitrary.
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Market Value Intrinsic Value
Hyundai Home Shopping Estimated Intrinsic Value vs Market Value ($ M, as of Nov. 30, ‘18)
MV Net Cash (Equivalent) Hyundai HCN Net Cash Stake Hyundai HCN Stake Handsome Stake Hyundai Rental Care Stake Other Affiliate Stakes Core Business Value
- Parent Net Cash Equivalents (₩ 827B)
- Includes cash (₩ 29B), short term
financial assets (₩ 733B), available-for- sale financial assets (₩ 34B), treasury stocks (₩ 31B) and debt (0)
- Hyundai HCN Net Cash Stake (₩ 130B)
- Hyundai Home Shopping owns 35%
- Hyundai HCN has net cash equivalents
(₩ 356B) and treasury stocks (₩ 12B)
- Hyundai HCN Stake (₩ 182B)
- Hyundai HCN’s operation valued at ₩
400K per cable subscriber with 1.3M
- subscriber. This equals to 9x ‘17 FCF
- Handsome Stake (₩ 326B)
- Hyundai Home Shopping owns 35%
- Applied share price of Nov. 30th, 2018
- Hyundai Rental Care Stake (₩ 111B)
- Applied book value (3Q ‘18)
- Core Business (₩ 1,332B)
- Applied 12x on Parent ‘17 NOPAT of ₩ 111B
60%
Net cash Equivalents & equity stakes
Jan 2019 Page 11
Table of Contents
- Background: Where did the Value Go?
- Root Cause: Poor Capital Allocation
- Our Recommendations
Jan 2019 Page 12
Hyundai’s Overall Capital Efficiency Declined Severely Despite Core Business Strength
106%
Hyundai**
Return on Capital Employed*
(5 year Average, Estimated, ‘13-’17, Parent)
Source: Bloomberg *Return on capital employed = Net Operating Profit After Tax / (Account Receivables + Inventories – Account Payables + Fixed Assets + Intangibles excluding goodwill) **For Hyundai, Net Working Capital (Account Receivables + Inventories – Account Payables) was negative and therefore calculated excluding NWC
Core business generates ≥ 100% return 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Hyundai Return on Equity (Parent)
Jan 2019 Page 13
Hyundai’s Core Business Needs Very Little Capital to Operate and Grow
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc.; Hyundai IR Materials
1% 18% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% CapEx OP Net Revenue
Hyundai Operating Profit and CapEx as % of Net Revenue (Average from ‘08 to ’17, Parent)
₩0 ₩500 ₩1,000 ₩1,500 ₩2,000 ₩2,500 ₩3,000 ₩3,500 ₩4,000 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Hyundai Gross Revenue vs Fixed & Intangible Assets (KRW B, Parent)
Net Revenue Fixed & Intangible Assets
Jan 2019 Page 14
Since 2012, Hyundai Has Invested approx. $1B in Non-Core Businesses
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports & Public Filings, etc.
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Investments
Hyundai Home Shopping’s Major Non-Core Investments ($ M)
Hanwha L&C Thailand Vietnam China Hyundai HCN Hyundai Rental Care Handsome
Jan 2019 Page 15
Hyundai’s Assessment of Investment Opportunities Appear to be Based on Beating the Bank Deposit Rate
*During 1:1 calls with Hyundai. Its affiliate, Hyundai Department Store, also stated that it generally targets approx. 5% ROE for new investments.
Hyundai’s Comment on Investment Return Target “We target to generate returns at least equal to or greater than bank deposit interest rate for our new investments.” Hyundai Home Shopping*
- However, business projects, especially non-core & new projects, require much higher cost
- f equity
- No debt in most cases
If Return on Investment < Cost of Capital
Value Destruction!
Jan 2019 Page 16
Hyundai’s Acquisition of 35% Stake of Handsome (a fashion company) Has Performed Poorly
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 Handsome Share Price
After 7 years, current market value of Handsome Acquisition shows $86M (23%) loss
Acquisition Price (Feb. '12) MV (Nov. 30th, '18)
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc. *Cumulative
- 100%
5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4%
- 120%
- 100%
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% '12 Feb '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 3Q*
Equity Income Return from Handsome Stake contributed 3%-5% ann.
Initial investment Equity income
- $86M
3-5% return is too low
Jan 2019 Page 17
Hyundai Had to Write Off 90% of Its China Joint Venture (JV) Business; JVs in Vietnam and Thailand Have Lost Money
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 China JV Stake
Hyundai Home Shopping’s China JV Value ($ M)
Initial Investment ('11) Current Book Value ('18 3Q)
Had to write-off $10M due to business difficulty
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc. *Cumulative
- $8
- $6
- $4
- $2
$0 '15 '16 '17 '18 3Q*
Equity Income from Thailand JV Stake ($ M)
Initial Investments Equity Loss
- $15
- $10
- $5
$0 '15 '16 '17 '18 3Q*
Equity Income from Vietnam JV Stake ($ M)
Initial Investments Equity Loss
Jan 2019 Page 18
$135M Investment in Hyundai Rental Care — Pre-tax IRR* is Estimated at a Modest 9%
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
# of Domestic Rental Accounts as of
- Sep. 30, 2018 (1,000)
- 40%
- 60%
- 4%
- 14% -16% -13%
- 7%
0% 2% 4% 7% 10% 13% '15 '16 '17 '18E '19E '20E '21E '22E '23E '24E '25E
Hyundai Rental Care ROI Projection
Initial Investments Return (Reflects Hyundai's Forecast) Looks like a long time to pay
- back. Even if we assume a
- ptimistic 20% return on initial
investment annually from 2025 for the 20 years thereafter, the total 30-year pre-tax IRR will be
- nly 9%. But this might not be
possible with intensifying competition, and it may become harder to generate “value.”
Source: Bridge Economy; Hyundai IR; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc.; Dalton Estimates *Internal Rate of Return based on optimistic assumptions
Jan 2019 Page 19
Hyundai Paid $330M to Acquire 100% Stake in Hanwha L&C; We Believe Price Paid is High
Source: Hyundai IR; Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports & public filings, etc.; Dalton Analysis; Invest Chosun; The Bell
Hanwha L&C KCC LG Hausys PB (’17) 2.6x 0.5x 0.7x EV/EBITDA (‘18E) 10.5x 0.3x 7.9x
Purchase Price Appears Expensive to Peers Estimated Valuation Comparison (Based on 3Q ‘18 Share Price and trailing 4Q business performances for KCC & LG)
Jan 2019 Page 20
Hyundai Share Price Declined on News of Acquisition of Hanwha L&C
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports *Refer to pg. 12 for return on capital employed **Hyundai and HGF have very different businesses consolidated and therefore have calculated based on the parent
’15 ’16 ‘17
Hanwha L&C
11% 7% 5%
Hyundai Home Shopping** (Parent)
84% 104% 117%
Hyundai Green Food** (Parent)
15% 17% 13%
Hyundai Livart
13% 11% 10%
Hyundai HCN
18% 21% 22% Hanwha L&C est. ROCE lower than Hyundai & Affiliates Estimated Return on Capital Employed*
₩95,000 ₩100,000 ₩105,000 ₩110,000 ₩115,000 ₩120,000 8/1/2018 9/1/2018 10/1/2018
Hyundai Share Price
Rumor of Hyundai acquiring Hanwha L&C Hyundai confirms acquisition of Hanwha L&C “Negative on Hanwha L&C acquisition for Hyundai Home Shopping shareholders…” Yuanta Securities “We don’t manufacture interior materials in-house like Hanwha L&C. We don’t have any plans to do it in-house or acquire such companies” Hanssem (leader in Hyundai Livart’s industry)
Jan 2019 Page 21
Hyundai Has Abundant Cash on Its Balance Sheet
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Report *Includes cash, short-term financial assets, marketable available-for-sale financial assets, treasury stocks and debt, 35% stake in Hyundai HCN net cash equivalents; Recent $330M Hanwha L&C acquisition amount is not excluded
880 1041 1457
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Net Cash Equivalent Market Cap Total Equity (Book Value)
Hyundai Net Cash Equivalent*, Market Cap & Total Equity (Book Value), (Nov. 30, 2018, $ M)
Jan 2019 Page 22
Hyundai’s Payout Ratio is Extremely Low Compared to US peers, Liberty Interactive (LI) and Home Shopping Network (HSN)
Source: Bloomberg *Now Qurate Retail
10% 28% 71% 4% 11% 44% 121%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Hyundai Home Shopping GS Home Shopping Home Shopping Network Liberty Interactive
Average Total Payout Ratio (dividend + share repurchase out
- f net income) to Shareholders from ’10-’17
Dividend Share Repurchase
Net income already reflects investments thus High Payout Ratio ≠ Low Investments
4% buyback without cancellation = Not a direct return to shareholders
*
Jan 2019 Page 23
LI and HSN, Controlled by John Malone, a Renowned Capital Allocator in the US, Have Richly Rewarded All Shareholders
Value of $1 during John Malone (TCI*)’s Tenure
Source: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) and TCI annual reports *John Malone was CEO of TCI from 1973 to 1996; TCI was acquired by AT&T in 1999
Jan 2019 Page 24
High Payout Ratios Do Not Rule Out Investments
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Report
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 Common Equity ('18 3Q) Zulily (Cash & Stock) HSN (Stock)Trip Advisor (Cash)
Liberty Interactive Major Investments (2010 to 2018, $ M)
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 Common Equity ('18 3Q) Handsome (Cash) Hanwha L&C (Cash) Hyundai Rental Care (Cash)
Hyundai Major Investments (2010 to 2018, $ M)
Jan 2019 Page 25
Dalton Estimates of Investment Returns from Share Buybacks (and Cancellation)
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc. *Estimated returns based on methods described in this presentation. Hanwha L&C return is the expected return based on 2019 estimate, and Handsome stake return is based on current equity income yield.**Pre-tax IRR
150% 9%** 6% 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Share Repurchase & Cancellation Hyundai Rental Care Stake Hanwha L&C Handsome Stake
Estimated Hyundai Investment Return*
Jan 2019 Page 26
Has Hyundai’s Inadequate Capital Allocation Harmed Share Price Performance?
Source: Bloomberg *Assuming dividends reinvested in the stock **Until Dec. 29, 2017 as it was acquired by LI on Jan. 2, 2018 *** Subtracted all net cash equivalents and equity stake values on parent basis to calculate Enterprise Value ****As of Sep. 30, 2017, because it was acquired by LI on Jan. 2, 2018, and due to data availability
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Hyundai HSN** LI (Qurate Retail)
Total Shareholder Return* (Sep. 13, 2010 to Nov. 30, 2018)
- 4.0x
- 2.0x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x Hyundai*** LI (Qurate Retail) HSN****
EV/EBITDA (As of Nov. 30, 2018)
Jan 2019 Page 27
Broker Research Appears to Support This View
Broker Research Comments on Hyundai Home Shopping
“Share price was weak due to announcing acquisition of an interior company that doesn’t seem to have big synergy with its core business.”
- Nov. ‘18
Eugene Securities “Extremely low valuation with intrinsic price-earnings ratio (market value – net cash – equity stakes) at -1.3x.”
- Nov. ‘18
Hyundai Motor Securities “Negative on Hanwha L&C acquisition for Hyundai Home Shopping shareholders…Handsome acquisition was needed really for Hyundai Department Store Group and it wasn’t going to create lot of synergy with Hyundai Home Shopping…in reality, Hyundai Home Shopping was used as a cash dispenser for the group.”
- Oct. ‘18
Yuanta Securities Which companies will benefit from Hanwha L&C acquisition? If acquisition happens, Hyundai Livart will be the company that will see the biggest long-term fundamental improvement…..This acquisition should be also positive to Hyundai Green Food…..
- Aug. ‘18
Hanwha Securities “Hyundai Home Shopping should also consider increasing returns to shareholders…”
- Feb. ‘18
Hyundai Motor Securities “While net cash is 50% of its market value, we applied 50% discount to this net cash because of 1) no specific shareholder return policy and 2) weak operating performances by its acquired companies while generating low synergies with its core business.”
- Aug. ‘17
Yuanta Securities “Hyundai Rental Care’s weak operations and shareholder return policy need to be improved.”
- Mar. ‘17
Samsung Securities
Jan 2019 Page 28
Table of Contents
- Background: Where did the Value Go?
- Root Cause: Poor Capital Allocation
- Our Recommendations
Jan 2019 Page 29
Recommendations
- I. Buyback and cancel shares (preferred) and/or increase dividends
- $200M and $165M one-off payout for Hyundai and its de facto subsidiary Hyundai HCN (“HCN”),
respectively – which is approximately half of each company’s net cash equivalents
- Even if Hyundai pays out approximately $200M, it is estimated that Hyundai still would have
approximately $200M of net cash equivalents and that Hyundai annually would generate approximately $180M of operating cash flow
- Even if HCN pays out approximately $165M, it is estimated that HCN still would have
approximately $165M of net cash equivalents and that HCN annually would generate approximately $85M of operating cash flow
- Hyundai is the largest shareholder of HCN with an approximately 38% ownership, and other
Hyundai Department Store affiliates additionally hold an approximately 30% ownership
- If HCN pays out $165M, it is estimated that Hyundai’s share of the payout would be
approximately $63M
- Increase annual, regular total payout ratio to 60-80% for Hyundai and 80-100% for HCN
- If the company faces a good investment opportunity that can create “economic value added”
even after already making significant investments, the company may obtain the necessary capital through other means, such as the usage of remaining net cash equivalents, issuance/exchange of stock and/or capital increase or adopting a temporary and flexible approach with capital return to shareholders (share repurchase and cancellation)
Jan 2019 Page 30
Hyundai Can Easily Manage a $200M One-Off Payout and 60-80% (of net income) Regular Total Payout Ratio (Approx. $100M).
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Reports; Dalton Estimates *Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization
400 150
- 100
- $200
- $100
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Net Cash on Hand One-off Payout
Hyundai Estimated Net Cash Equivalents vs Recommended One-off Payout ($, M)
Hanwha L&C and Hyundai Rental Care Hyundai Parent
180 40 100
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 EBITDA CapEx Regular Payout
Hyundai Estimated EBITDA vs CapEx vs Recommended Regular Payouts ($, M)
Jan 2019 Page 31
Hyundai is the Largest Shareholder of Hyundai HCN (HCN)
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Reports *As of December 31, 2018, Hyundai’s ownership increased to approximately 38%
35%
11% 11%
6% 3% 34% Hyundai HCN
HCN Ownership (As of Sep. 30, 2018)*
Hyundai Hyundai Shopping Hyundai Department Store Hyundai Green Food Kyo-Sun Chung Others
Hyundai Department Store Group (66%)
Jan 2019 Page 32
HCN Also Has Ample Net Cash Equivalents and is Very Undervalued
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 Market Value Intrinsic Value
Hyundai HCN Estimated Intrinsic Value vs Market Value ($ M, as of Nov. 30, ‘18)
MV Net Cash (Equivalents) Core Business Value Market Value is similar to net cash equivalents. Therefore, you’re getting core business almost for FREE!
50%
Net Cash Equivalents
- Net Cash Equivalents (₩ 368B)
- Includes cash (₩ 8B), short term
financial assets (₩ 348B), treasury stocks (₩ 12B)
- Core Business (₩ 520B)
- Applied ₩ 400K per cable
subscriber with 1.3M cable subscriber
- This equals to 9x ‘17 FCF
Jan 2019 Page 33
HCN is Not Returning Capital to Shareholders but Simply Piling Up Cash
Source: Bloomberg
7% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
HCN Average Total Payout Ratio (2010 to 2017)
Dividend Share Repurchase
7% buyback without cancellation = Not a direct return to shareholders
4.79 46.98 84.03 121.77 175.79 207.99 251.45 284.69 333.04 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 3Q
HCN Net Cash ($, M)
Jan 2019 Page 34
HCN’s Free Cash Flows Have Been Higher Than Net Income
Source: Bloomberg
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
HCN CapEx vs Depreciation (2010 to 2017, $ M)
Depreciation CapEx $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
HCN FCF vs NI (2010 to 2017, $ M)
NI FCF
- Cable business has front-loaded capex, increasing free cash flow in later years
Jan 2019 Page 35
HCN Can Easily Manage a $165M One-Off Payout and an 80-100% Regular Total Payout Ratio (Approx. $35M)
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Quarterly Reports; Dalton Estimates *Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization
330 165
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 Net Cash on Hand One-off Payout
HCN Net Cash Equivalents vs Recommended One-off Payout ($, M)
85 25 35
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 EBITDA CapEx Regular Payouts
HCN Estimated EBITDA vs CapEx vs Recommended Regular Payouts ($, M)
Jan 2019 Page 36
Recommendations
- II. Pay 40-70% of senior management’s annual compensation in
time-vested restricted shares to align interests of management with those of minority shareholders
Jan 2019 Page 37
Hyundai’s Management Compensation has Held Steady or Increased despite Declining Shareholder Value
514 653 641 1038 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 '14 (10 months) '15 '16 '17
Hyundai Professional CEO’s Annual Compensation
Source: Bloomberg; Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports
₩80,000 ₩100,000 ₩120,000 ₩140,000 ₩160,000 ₩180,000 ₩200,000
Hyundai Share Price
Jan 2019 Page 38
Hyundai Management is Compensated Very Differently from Its US peer, Qurate Retail
Qurate Retail’s Management Compensation
Source: Qurate Retail Definitive Proxy Statement
Qurate Retail’s Senior Management appear to receive more than 50% of compensation through stock-based compensation.
Jan 2019 Page 39
Recommendations
- III. Evaluate senior management’s performance primarily based on
“economic value added.”
Jan 2019 Page 40
Evaluate Management Performances on Creation of Value to Shareholders
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports
Hyundai’s Comment on Profit Sharing from Annual Report
Profit Sharing: …Annual payments can differ depending on the after-tax profit (based on management accounting) which is our business performance indicator… Hyundai Home Shopping
Should be based on “economic value added”
Economic value added = Capital x (Return on Capital - Cost of Capital)
Jan 2019 Page 41
Recommendations
- IV. Split and merge companies to unlock value and streamline. (But
this cannot substitute better capital allocations).
Jan 2019 Page 42
Illustration of Hyundai & HCN Split and Merger
Hyundai Hyundai Hold Co Hyundai Op Co HCN HCN Hold Co HCN Op Co Hyundai Hold Co Hyundai Op Co
- Net cash equivalent
- Equity stakes
- Net cash equivalent
- Equity stakes
- Core business
- Core business
MERGE 100% 100%
List separately on the market List separately on the market
Jan 2019 Page 43
Hyundai’s Independent Directors have Not Opposed Any Proposals by Management
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service DART – Annual Reports, etc.
146
146
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Number of voting items Number of items which every attendant independent director voted for
Not a single opposing vote since 2010
Estimated Number of Hyundai Board of Directors Voting Items which Every Attendant Independent Director Voted For (2010 to 2018 3Q)
Jan 2019 Page 44