Impact on Florida and its Infrastructure Investments JOEL DUBOW, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hurricane Matthew: Impact on Florida and its Infrastructure Investments

JOEL DUBOW, PH.D., CISSP FULCRUM CO, CENTREVILLE VA, 20120 JDUBOW@FULCRUMIT.COM

Outline

• 1. Hurricane Matthew summary;
• 2. Impacts on Florida
• 3. Utilities Impact
• 4. Emergency Response Infrastructure
• 5. Technical Developments
• 6. Future Issues
• 7. Questions and awards presentation

1.Hurricane Mathew Summary

WITH A FOCUS ON FLORIDA

It was bad, but we expected worse

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Major Impacts

• 603 deaths, 47 in the United States
• Est. $15 billion in damages, $10 billion in US-

costliest Hurricane since Sandy in 2012

• Extensive power outages and flooding
• Loss would have been much higher had the

hurricane path been 20 miles further west

• Extensive warning and preparation helped

reduce losses

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Damage proportional to Category

• Category (Florida hurricane loss index)
• Most Hurricanes strike Florida, around 50%

probability per year.

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Category

• Est. loss (2005 $US)

1 $250-500 million 2 $500 million-1.5 billion 3 $1.5 billion-7.9 billion 4 $ 8. billion -50 billion 5 Over $ 50 billion

What are key lessons

• We dodged a MOAB hurricane, but that isn’t

the smart way to live

• A coordinated and cost-effective approach is

needed to improve detection, preparation and response to hurricanes

• Short term horizons, financial profitability and

political imperatives act to shift costs to consumers and impede the upgrades and hardening needed to mitigate future disasters

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• 2. Impacts on Florida

STATE SPECIFIC IMPACTS

Damage in Florida

• 12 deaths
• Estimated $2.75 billion in damages
• Many facilities damaged by water intrusion (i.e.

Kennedy Space Center, beaches etc.)

• Petroleum ports were closed.
• Most deaths were caused by drowning (direct,

vehicular and indirect accident causes)

• Disney World, NASCAR and LSU-Florida football

game etc. were cancelled or closed!!

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Physical Damages

• Shorelines, beaches
• Roads
• Trees
• Coastline infrastructure

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• 3. Utilities Impact Issues

STATEWIDE ISSUES MOVING FORWARD

Energy Supply Damage

• Hurricanes estimated annual property damage is

around $250 million, followed by Tornados ($180 million and Flooding ($115 million). All others at $50 million and below

• Petroleum is supplied through72 terminals and 44

miles of pipeline but direct losses are relatively small (a few million/year)

• Natural Gas is dominating electrical power
• generation. But direct losses are still in the low

millions per year

• Natural disasters cause the bulk of electrical
• utages

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Florida Energy Infrastructure

• Total energy production supplemented by out
• f state energy, electrical and natural gas
• Energy consumption dominated by residential

consumers since industry is relatively small

• Florida is improving transmission systems
• US ASCE (Am. Soc. Civil Engineers) grades

Florida at C— for infrastructure

• Suggest smart grid, better forecasting and

infrastructure hardening to raise its grade

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Energy Infrastructure issues(EPA)

• Restructured electrical industry (unbundle supply

and distribution since distribution is a natural monopoly, supply isn’t)

• Joining a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO)
• r Independent System Operator(ISO) for regional

coordination and cooperation and long term planning

• Institute Statewide Energy planning and Integrated

Resource/procurement planning

• Institute Statewide energy efficiency and clean

energy policies

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• 4. Emergency Response

Infrastructure

There are a number of resources

• FEMA has offices all over Florida and elsewhere

and provides significant emergency services (6 million meals, 4.5 million liters of water, 500 generators, over $100 million relief funds etc.)

• Florida Division of Emergency Management (DEM)

worked with FEMA and used its HAZUS software to develop emergency standard operating procedures and assess impacts

• Department of Energy ISER coordinates restoration
• f power with other agencies and other regions

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Emergency Response Teams

• DHS National Planning Frameworks (6/2016)

coordinates prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery

• FEMA CERT’s (Community Emergency Response

Teams) Statewide

• Department of Energy ESF #12, responds with

restoration efforts when activated by Secretary of Homeland Security

• Florida Division of Emergency Management

coordinates State Emergency Response Teams (SERTS)

• Local Law enforcement and first responders

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Is technology making emergency response smart or just confused?

• Agile combination sensing, data fusion and decision

support sounds terrific.

• Comparing fairy tales and war stories
• Yet the technology is emerging and will pervade

emergency response

• Our job is to avoid it taking down too many people

with it in the process

• ASIS Utilities Security Council is working with the

US Government to help ensure that their research focuses on helping the people doing the work

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Monitored: model trends Analytic: model process prediction success Proactive : Real time monitoring and control Adaptive: change model as situation evolves Optimizing: Develop new response tactics in real time

Output findings from cyber tools

This Figure shows how unmonitored processes is projected to evolve. Infrastructure is connected, by networks and data transformed into information emergency response managers need for resource allocation

Smart Systems evolution

Ponce de Leon

Are we looking in the wrong direction?

• James Clapper, Mike Rogers and Marcel Lettre

testified at the House Intelligence Committee (Jan 5, 2107) that we need to manage risk since we can no longer erect walls that can keep hackers out.

• Should we be focusing on risk management

(loss minimization) rather than damage prevention?

• The answer will impact new development

strategies

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The Dieters Dilemma

• The better we do emergency response the more

society will make future disasters even more damaging based on discounting future loss (wmw?)

• Delaying investment or saving money tends to

increase risk

• Emergency infrastructure is based on “Hierarchical

Reductionism” (i.e. stove piping)

• The sooner vulnerability is addressed the higher

the impact on a disaster

• We don’t know true state of grid until we have a

disaster (Hurricane Sandy and 1938 RI hurricane )

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• 5. Technical Developments

Social Media played a role

• Individuals served as storm trackers
• Meteorologists posted viral, and often useful

images (Stu Ostro, Weather Chan. “Skull” etc.)

• FEMA and other agencies have Twitter and

Facebook feeds to inform the public

• Some Twitter feeds created public alarm
• Online media and radio were a mixed bag
• Potential is just being tapped

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Integrated Data Collection and improved Models

• FEMA Hazus Hurricane Model, now in v 4
• NASA Earth Observing System Data and

Information System (EOSDIS). Latency decreasing to a couple of hours for use in disaster response

• Use of drones and robots for monitoring
• Life-cycle electrical and fuel interruption models
• What do the improved forecast models mean

for the “price of tea in China”?

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Useful data from forecast Models

• There is a gap between making better forecasts

and making better decisions

• How do better forecasts provide first

responders with actionable information?

• How do they provide decision support for policy

makers?

• How do they assist society in general answer

the questions that are most generally important?

• This is another job that WE needs to tackle.

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Ubiquitous Sensing and IOT

• Sensors are becoming much cheaper and have

integrated data processing and communication

• Sensor networks can provide 3-d and real time

information for all stakeholders

• There are many issues to resolve before they

realize their potential

– Tsunami of data that is makes it all but useless – Determining what needs sensing and how to combine data into decision support information – Ensuring data quality and sensor functionality

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Cybersecurity is a threat

Converged IT Security

Physical security and emergency response were not typically considered an internet of computer security issue, but is becoming one since alarms and surveillance systems are now digital and networked. Cross domain attacks on electrical grid and industrial systems wreak physical as well as data loss assets (Stuxnet, Ukraine Power Grid, Air vehicles)

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Information Security and networks

Internet of things: Cyber physical Security Physical security and emergency response Information Security and networks

evolving Being Studied Being Studied

Internet of things: Cyber physical Security

emerging evolving emerging

Physical security and emergency response

Being Studied emerging evolving

Coordinated Emergency Response: Cloudy Weather ahead

• Cloud computing (distributed, centrally managed

data centers) is emerging to take the place of data

• centers. It has advantages of lower cost and

flexibility as well as centralized security

• But many organizations use a number of clouds

from suppliers such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, IBM, Rackspace etc

• With applications moving to the cloud a number of

issues arise: common interfaces, interoperability, secure communications and common management

• Federation (a common management as at a mall)

can help organizations manage multi-clouds)

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If you had a Dream

• What is your response to the new technology for

hurricane and disaster response?

• If you had three wishes that you could make for

new technology, policies or processes, what would they be?

• Please email me at jdubow@fulcrumit.com or Tony

Hurley aenergyman@aol.com

• We will include it in our ASIS Utilities/Government

subpanel to help make things better.

• Anything come to mind now?

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• 6. Future Issues

We need an emergency manhunt to locate “We”

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. Everyone agrees we ought do invest more in infrastructure resilience Yet when it comes time to write checks, “we” is nowhere to be found

Context of Risk Mitigation Investments

• Many are predicting that atmospheric and

geoclimactic changes will result in increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes

• Infrastructure hardening and wetlands

restoration will improve infrastructure resilience

• It is suggested that WE ought to invest in this
• It isn’t be done because the return on

investment isn’t positive, or soon enough

• Social factors aren’t given much weight in

decisions

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Example: Florida DOT

• Has an “adopted work program” that was studied

in 2016

• Metric is (increase in state revenue-state

investment)/state investment

• Greater than 1 is good, less than zero is bad
• Aviation and Seaports are between 1 and 2

because of tourism and total economic activity

• Roads, rails and public transport have cost savings

to consumers and business, but don’t translate into State Revenue. Thus Uncle We is assigned the job.

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• 7. Questions and awards

presentation

Its time for the quiz

• How effective was emergency response for

Hurricane Matthew?

• Are there any critical preparations that need to

be made?

• What are the individual responders needs?
• Please write Tony or me.
• If you write us we will send you the

presentation award.

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