Motivation Objective Conceptual Framework Methodology Results Conclusions Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on respiratory health in Brazil Alexandre Nicolella Department of Economics University of S˜ ao Paulo, Ribeir˜ ao Preto MGG n.7 University of Kent 2010 Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Biofuel: Brazil and World Renewable sources: sugar-cane, corn, cellulose and woody crops etc Projections 5 % of the liquid fuels by 2025 Brazil: 34% of the world ethanol production in 2009 Brazil consumption: Ethanol 22 , 823 10 3 m 3 Gasoline 19 , 057 10 3 m 3 (2009) Sugar-cane products: 18 . 1 % of the Brazilian energy matrix Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil 30 years of investment in R&D for industrial and agricultural ethanol sector Productivity: from 34 t . ha − 1 in 1960 to 69 t . ha − 1 in 2006 Ethanol cost: from US$ 980 m 3 in 1975 to US$ 260-305 m 3 in 2004 Rise of oil prices and the decline of ethanol prices Producer price: ethanol US$ 301 m 3 and gasoline US$ 502 m 3 (2009) Flex fuel technology Flex-fuel light-cars sold: from 39% in 2005 to 87% in 2009 Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Two System of Production Sugar-cane area: from 4.9 (2000) to 8.2 million ha (2008) = ⇒ g.r. 6.7% a year Sugar-cane is a semi perennial culture Mechanical harvest of the raw sugar-cane Manual harvest with previous burning of sugar-cane State of S˜ ao Paulo: 56% of the sugar-cane area was harvested raw (2009) Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Labor market Water pollution Green house gases emission Soil degradation Health Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Sugar-cane on air pollution: Andrade et al. (2010); Lara et al (2005) and Allen et al (2004) ⇑ Fine particulate matter (PM 2 . 5 ) ⇑ Coarse particulate matter (CPM) ⇑ Black Carbon concentration (BC) ⇑ Nitrite, sulfite, oxide of carbon Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Biofuel: Brazil and World Objective Reasons for Ethanol Demand in Brazil Conceptual Framework Two System of Production Methodology Consequences of Sugar Cane Production Results Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Conclusions Health Consequences of Sugar-Cane Production Sugar-cane and health Arbex et al (2000) and Arbex et al (2007) City of Araraquara (SP) using data from 1995 and 2003 (respectively) found a positive impact of sugar cane on inhalation and asthma admission Canc ¸ado (2006) City of Piracicaba (SP) using data from 1997/98 found a positive impact of sugar cane burning and child and elderly admission due to respiratory diseases Uriarte et al (2009) State of S˜ ao Paulo using data from 2003 found a positive impact of fire occurrence on child and elderly admission due to respiratory diseases Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Conceptual Framework Objective Methodology Results Conclusions Objective and contribution Objective Measure the impact of the increasing of raw sugar-cane harvesting area on inpatient and outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases on the state of S˜ ao Paulo” Contribution Raw sugar-cane harvested area Other sources of pollution as car and industries Incorporating socio-economics variables Health system supply Control for health private sector Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Conceptual Framework Conceptual Framework Methodology Results Conclusions Human Capital Model - Grossman (1972) and Cropper (1981) For a municipality the average health capital variation will be: ∆ H t + 1 = H t + 1 − H t = I t − δ t Ht (1) The average rate of decay or depreciation of health capital in a municipality: δ t = f ( S t , Ψ t ) (2) The municipality per capita investment in health capital: I t = f ( t h t , M t , E t , Υ) (3) The mean marginal cost to invest in health: π t = f ( W t , P M t ) (4) Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Conceptual Framework Conceptual Framework Methodology Results Conclusions Human Capital Model - Results Model results Individuals in polluted area will choose to keep a lower level of health capital and will present more incidences of illness Model results Individual in long term polluted areas can undertaken some behaviors to minor the effect of this externality. Pollution can be endogenously determined. Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Study Region Conceptual Framework Data Base Methodology Econometric Specification Results Conclusions Region: S˜ ao Paulo State State of S˜ ao Paulo: 60% of total Brazilian sugar-cane production in 2007/2008 More detailed socio-economic data base for municipalities State Law N. 11.241 of 2002 - gradually diminish the sugar cane burning 2007 Protocol that anticipate the abolishment of pre harvest burning of sugar-cane (2014/17) Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Study Region Conceptual Framework Data Base Methodology Econometric Specification Results Conclusions Data Base H t : Inpatient visits per 1000 habitants and local of residence due to respiratory diseases; Outpatient visits due to inhalation procedure per 1000 habitants; Length of stay per local of residence due to respiratory diseases. S t population density; percentage of population above 60 years; weather considered time invariant variable. Ψ o t total fleet 1000 units (2002) total industrial energy consumption 1000 MWh (2001) Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Study Region Conceptual Framework Data Base Methodology Econometric Specification Results Conclusions Data Base Ψ c t Raw sugar cane area in 1000 hectare. t h t and Υ Considered time invariant variable. M t and P M t Health professionals and nurses per 1000 habitants registered in the regional council for the municipalities; Percentage of population that is beneficiaries of private health plans E t and W t Average of real salary for formal workers. Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
Motivation Objective Study Region Conceptual Framework Data Base Methodology Econometric Specification Results Conclusions Panel Model The impact of increase raw sugar-cane harvested area on population respiratory health can be estimated as follow: h it = β 1 Ψ c it + β 2 Ψ o it + β 3 S it + β 4 M it + β 5 W it + ε it ε it = u it + θ i (5) u it ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) This model can control for the endogeneity caused by the individual (behavior) and municipality (weather) heterogeneity. Alexandre Nicolella 2010 c � Impact of reducing the pre harvest burning of sugar-cane area on
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