Dr David Connery and Colonel Andy Haebich IDEAS AND EVIDENCE FOR FORCE DESIGN THE ROLE OF FORCE ANALYSIS BRANCH F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 1
KEY MESSAGES Our Branch What our organisation needs to think about New Methods • Synthesising ideas and evidence to support force design. • Conceptual innovation, as well as technological innovation. • For industry, academia and FAB to work better together. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 2
Ideas are important Great change is possible through ideas 1. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 3
Ideas can be easy to smother F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 4
Evidence can be hard to fjnd What constitutes evidence about the future? 2. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 5
How do we gather that evidence? F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 6
And if you had evidence – would anyone listen? F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 7
What are our challenges? To be infmuential in Defence policy 3. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 8
To innovate in peacetime F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 9
Role of concepts, lessons, doctrine and experimentation 4. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 10
CONCEPTS Our joint concept section produces concepts in the 2035 timeframe, as well as the AJOC to guide current force development We are working towards building a community of experts and discussion groups on key topics across Defence – and eventually whole-of-government and other trusted partners We need to fjnd better ways to disseminate our core products across Defence and a wider audience F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 11
EXPERIMENTATION Joint Experimentation Directorate delivers experimentation support in 4 main study lines. • DCAP – HEADLIGHT • Futures – HEADSTART • Future Objective Force – Force Options and Integration Testing • Stream and Capability Manager - specifjc issues of a program, project, more tactical nature We need to maximise opportunities and leverage expertise for mutual benefjt We need to use better modelling, methods and tools (MMT) for Experimentation F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 12
DEFENCE LESSONS Must derive and apply lessons to (wicked and poorly defjned) problems that lie in the future Must look forward and outward Use the large quantities of information within Defence and industry which are yet to be analysed for a force design context F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 13
DOCTRINE Our challenge is to move earlier into the Capability Life Cycle Find new ways to deliver doctrine Find ways to test our doctrine F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 14
Working better together What we think we need to do How might we be able to work more closely? 5. F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 15
Conclusion 6. Peacetime military innovation occurs when respected senior offjcers formulate a strategy which has both intellectual and organisational components Peter Rosen F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H 16
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