IC Requirements For Next Generation Systems Club Vivado Users Group – Malcolm Penn – Oct 2015 Chairman & CEO, Future Horizons Slide 1
Your Passport To Future Horizons Analysing The Facts The FUD, The Hype & Delusion Economy Perception Unit Demand Emotion Fab Capacity Fashion ASPs Sentiment The Global Semiconductor Industry Analyst “Making Sense Of The Industry Tea Leaves” (Google “Future Horizons” or “Malcolm Penn Semiconductors” For More Details) Slide 2
Chronology & Background 1989 – Company Founded (Apr 1) Worldwide Semiconductor Industry Focus European & Russia/CIS Semiconductor Industry Specialisation Full Spectrum – Advanced Research To Market Development Market Research, Industry Analysis & Training Custom Consulting & Marketing Studies Due Diligence & IP/Product Positioning Business Development Opportunities & 1-2-1 Contacts Start-Ups Through Large Corporations & NXD Support Off-The-Shelf Research Reports & Industry Intelligence/Analysis Bespoke Research Assignments - From Proof Of Concept To Full Market Development Due Diligence Analysis - From Seed Funding Through IPO Competitive Benchmarking & Positioning - From the Basic IC Design & Technology Up Unique Combination Of Chip Design Know-How With Market & Business Insight ~5 Decades Of Semiconductor Industry Experience Longer Than ANY Other Industry Analyst & Most Industry Execs (Google “Malcolm Penn Drums” For My Near Alternative & Formulative Early Career!) Slide 3
Ten Industry Mega-Challenges* New Start-Up Famine: Due to the high costs and loss of VC appetite driving Shift to IP Fabless Market Saturation: With all IDMs now fabless the fabless sector can no longer ‘outperform’ the market … it is the market Foundry Supply: With TSMC dominant, they can now only grow ‘with the market’ Fab-Tight Supply: Net new capacity now built to order not expectation Virtual OEM: The emergence of firms such as Amazon, Apple and maybe Google Market Opportunities: Need for more substantial research vs superficial opinions, blogs and over-hyped head-line grabbing articles (e.g. the IoT Fiasco) Technology Challenges: Every new node (and transistor design) here on out will be revolutionary not evolutionary Industry Consolidation: Reducing the overall market pie for the down-stream providers and supplier choice for the up-stream customers ‘More Than Moore’: Assuming deeper importance as systems become smarter, more intelligent, interconnected and communicative New Design Techniques: Addressing the increasing occurrence of errors in the logic execution * FH Research Report (Feb 2015) Subscribe To Our Regular Update Reports & Industry Briefings Slide 4
Three Patterns Of Semiconductor Innovation Disruptive Innovation Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947) Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959) Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971) Exponential Innovation Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965) Cyclical Innovation Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto*: 1991) * Previously GM of Hitachi SC (1959-2001); Spearhead of 6147 High-Speed CMOS Intel 2147 SRAM Replacement Slide 5
Three Patterns Of Semiconductor Innovation Disruptive Innovation Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947) Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959) Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971) What Next? Post-CMOS Scaling (Materials & Structures) Biological ICs/Systems (Grown Inside The Final Package) Quantum Computing (When We Finally Figure Out How) Slide 6
Three Patterns Of Semiconductor Innovation Exponential Innovation Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965) What Next? Moore’s Law Is Dead (It’s Over At 28nm, That Much We’ve Been Told!!) Slide 7
Shame No-One Told Samsung & TSMC Memory Logic 2006 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2009 With 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2,25nm, 1.8nm & 1.3nm Well Understood (Whether anybody can afford them is another matter altogether!) Slide 8 Slide 8
3D NAND … Tough But Getting There Slide 9
Supply’s Not An Issue Either (If Pre-Ordered*) Foundry Market By Feature Size “We Do Not Build Speculative Capacity” – Dr Morris Chang, Jan 2015* (FH Advisory … Net New Capacity Is A One-Year Lead Time Item) Slide 10
Three Patterns Of Semiconductor Innovation Cyclical Innovation Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto: 1991) What Next? Now This Question IS Interesting! (Not Just For Xilinx Either ) Slide 11
What Is Makimoto’s Wave?* ＊ Named by D. Manners Standardization (Electronics Weekly , Jan. 30,1991) Field Memories Program- Standard Micro- mability Discretes processors '67 '87 '97 '77 '07 '57 Custom LSIs for TVs, ASICs Calculators Standardized in Manufacturing but Customized in Application Customization Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto Slide 12
Semiconductor Pendulum (Custom vs Standard Enigma) Customization Standardization Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto Slide 13
Makimoto’s Wave Extension Standardization Highly Flexible Super Integration Field MPU & Standard Program- HFSI Memory '67 '77 '87 '97 '07 '17 Discrete mability ‘ ２ 7 '57 Custom SoC/SiP ASIC LSI Customization ● Why HFSI? Same Reason As Before … Increasing design cost, Fragmented market ● HFSI Technological Breakthroughs 1) Integration of multi-functions incl. FPGA 2) Emergence of high-performance NVRAM Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto Slide 14
Process Evolution Remains Key A9 A9X* *14nm A9 (Samsung) 96mm 2 / 16nm A9X (TSMC) 105mm 2 Slide 15 Slide 15
Except For … The Interconnect! 14/16nm >20 Million Transistors On A Pin Head SRAM Cell ~ 0.070µ 2 – TSMC / 0.059µ 2 - Intel 12-Layer Metal, Top Layer 0.1mm Wide (L1 Too Wide Also) For Many Chips Shrinks Below14/16nm Are ‘Irrelevant’ (No Gain) Chip Size Dominated By Interconnect Not Gates Probably Why Some Firms Skipping 10nm For 7nm Needs New Interconnect Techniques On-Chip Wireless vs Track? (1cm Range / Tens of GHz, Not ISM Bands) On-Chip Optical? (Alternative to Wireless) Network On Chip? (e.g. Dundee Spacewire Technology) Slide 16
Spacew ire Network On A Chip Source: Dundee University/Future Horizons Slide 17
(MEMS) Sensors Key Too Smartphone Automotive – Engine Management Automotive – Chassis & Safety Printers Home Automation Industrial Projection Displays Plus Low-Volume (High-Value ) Aerospace & Defence (enabling spin-off products such as commercial ‘drones’) ‘Wearables’’, Medical Products & Other ‘IoT’ Applications Gaming, Robotics & Toys (‘Other Sales’) Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report) Slide 18
MEMS Product Examples 10-Axis Gyroscope Microphone Pressure Sensor Source: Freescale Source: Knowles/ChipWorks Source: OmronD InkJet Print Head RF Switching Camera Focusing Source: STM Source: IOP Source: InvenSense Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report) Slide 19
Other Key Challenges Connectivity: Currently – Low Number Of High Bandwidth, Single Connections IoT – ‘Trillion’ Low Bandwidth, Unique IP Addresses (Router vs IPv6 Issue) Security: Currently – Firewall IoT – Built Into Device (From Thermostats To Dolls; From TVs To Cars) Processor: Currently – S’Ware Hackable MPU (Intel, PowerPC, ARM, XMOS …) IoT – Reverse-Engineer ‘Impenetrable’ FPGA Code Software: Currently – 1-10 Threads, Serial Code – Point-To-Point Network Centric IoT – Millions Of Threads, Parallel Code – Neural Network Centric SoC Design: Currently – Independent Design Teams, Chip Partitioning-Based IoT – Agile Development, Collaborative, Cross-Functional, 2-Week Sprints Slide 20
Chip Market Drivers Slide 21
Smartphone – Ubiquitous & Transformative From Jan 2007 Launch To ‘Planet Of The Phones’ To Phonosapiens … 21 st Century Oods? From Homosapiens Slide 22 Slide 22
From Automation To Design Services Slide 23 Slide 23
To The Much Over-Hyped ‘IoT’ Industry & Governments Talk About IoT As If It Were One Space, One Solution – It Is Of Course Not … It Represents A Wide Range Of Markets, Applications, Technologies & (Eventually Real) Opportunities Slide 24 Slide 24
Micro-Fluidics (Lab-On-A-Chip) Source: Berkeley Source: ElveFlow Similar Techniques To Inkjet-printer, Already Surprisingly Large Market (~$2b) Highly Specialised BUT Chemistry Dominates This Field NOT The MEMS Device Think Vitamins & ‘Voodoo’ Healthcare Sales … This Market Is Huge (But Not For The Chip Suppliers… Think Apple & Amazon!!) Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report) Slide 25
Data Explosion 2015 = 2x (only) Source: Intel Slide 26 Slide 26
Semiconductor Innovation So ‘No Pressure’ There Folks … !! Slide 27 Slide 27
Recommend
More recommend
