HUMAN AND SOCIAL HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT HUMAN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HUMAN AND SOCIAL HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT HUMAN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HUMAN AND SOCIAL HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT HSRC, Pretoria. HSRC, Pretoria. HSRC, Pretoria 13 June 2012 13 June 2012 13 June 2012 The Youth Bulge and the future of South The Youth Bulge and

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HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

HSRC, Pretoria. 13 June 2012

HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

HSRC, Pretoria. 13 June 2012

The Youth Bulge and the future of South Africa

Monde Makiwane, PhD HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT HSRC, Pretoria 13 June 2012 The Youth Bulge and the Future of South Africa Presentation by Monde Makiwane, PhD

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Social science that makes a difference

Content Content

  • Introduction
  • History
  • Statistics
  • Youth Bulge, the Challenge
  • Pictures Indicating tensions and the Need to Act
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Social science that makes a difference

Introduction Introduction

  • The importance of Demographic transition to the

future of South Africa.

  • Conflicts and demographic transitions
  • Development prospects in the context of the

youth bulge.

  • Youth Bulge in South Africa curse or a blessing?:

An Asian economic miracle or an Arab spring?

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Social science that makes a difference

Historical Picture Depicting Youth Struggle Historical Picture Depicting Youth Struggle

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Social science that makes a difference

Size and Distribution

  • Youth in 15-24

estimated at 10.1m

  • Africans 83.7%
  • Indians 7.9%
  • Coloureds 2.2%
  • Whites 6.2%
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Social science that makes a difference

The Changing Structure of the World Population The Changing Structure of the World Population

Source: United Nations Population Division (2011).

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Social science that makes a difference

  • Fig. 1. The size of the youth population (millions)

1960-2009

3.1 4.2 5.7 7.4 9.1 10.1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

Year

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Social science that makes a difference

Household Residence

  • 59% of 15-19 group live

with biological parents

  • 50.2%of 20-24 group live

with biological parents

  • 2.9% of teens are heads
  • 11.5% of youth between

20-24 are heads

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Social science that makes a difference

Youth Bulge

20 15 10

5 5

10 15 20

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80 +

% of the population

A g e g r

  • u

p

1960

15 10

5 5

10 15

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 +

% of the population

A g e g r

  • u

p

2007 Male Female

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Social science that makes a difference

Youth Bulge by Population Group Youth Bulge by Population Group

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Social science that makes a difference

Dependency Burden Dependency Burden

Ratio ___________________________________________ All* Children** Old age*** __________________________________________________________________ 1960 81 74 7 1970 84 77 6 1980 81 75 6 1990 73 67 6 2000 56 49 6 2009 54 47 7 _________________________________________________________________ * (pop 0-14 + pop 65+)/pop15-64*100 ** (pop 0-14)/pop15-64*100 *** ( pop 65+)/pop15-64*100

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Social science that makes a difference

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Social science that makes a difference

2007

15 10

5 5

10 15

Population Projection 2007-2050 Population Projection 2007-2050

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Social science that makes a difference

Age Structure Age Structure

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Social science that makes a difference

Age Distribution of Migrants & Non-Migrants, 2007 in the Eastern Cape Age Distribution of Migrants & Non-Migrants, 2007 in the Eastern Cape

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Social science that makes a difference

Youths Demand Right to Decent Life (Employment) Youths Demand Right to Decent Life (Employment)

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Social science that makes a difference

Youth Protest a Sign of Tension Youth Protest a Sign of Tension

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Social science that makes a difference

Arab Uprising, Any Lesson to Learn? Arab Uprising, Any Lesson to Learn?

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Conclusion Conclusion

  • Youth bulge: the biggest

challenge in South Africa

  • Likely to take longer than in
  • ther parts of the world
  • Will it spell anarchy or

prosperity for South Africa?

  • Must we wait for “geriatric

peace”?

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Social science that makes a difference