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How to Get Accurate Forecasts for Reducing Weight Limits Wayne - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 20, 2023 •208 likes •625 views

How to Get Accurate Forecasts for Reducing Weight Limits Wayne Schoonover Mason CRC Manager/Director Sean Thorpe CTT Roadsoft Software Engineer Agenda Thaw weakening Thawcaster origin Walk through Questions Why Spring Load

  1. How to Get Accurate Forecasts for Reducing Weight Limits Wayne Schoonover – Mason CRC Manager/Director Sean Thorpe – CTT Roadsoft Software Engineer

  2. Agenda • Thaw weakening • Thawcaster origin • Walk through • Questions

  3. Why Spring Load Restrictions?

  4. Thaw Weakening! Strength Restrict Load Winter Spring Summer Fall From FHWA Guidelines for Spring Highway Use Restrictions

  6. Terms Freezing Index (FI) Thawing Index (TI) Thawing Index using Minnesota Method (TI*)

  7. Start Counting FI

  8. When to Put Restriction on Table 2 Thawing Index ( o F-days) Pavement BST/Asphalt Concrete Base Course Should Must Structure Thickness (inches) Thickness (inches) Level Level • Thin 2” or less 6” or less 10 40 • Thick Greater than 2” Greater than 6” 25 50 From FHWA Guidelines for Spring Highway Use Restrictions

  9. When to Take Restrictions Off Guidelines state when TI = 0.3 X FI 0.3 X FI is approximately when it is thawed

  10. Start Counting TI

  11. 0.3 X FI Is Not when it stops bleeding and settled back down! Use visual judgement and experience

  12. WEATHER FORECASTING: IN THE BEGINNING …

  21. Origin Program Overview Data collection Tools User setup Upcoming plans

  22. How did LTAP get involved?

  23. Thawcaster Basic Historic data and forecasts FI, TI, TI* web based tracking tool Data stored in cloud Desktop and mobile ready

  24. Thawcaster Advanced Worst case forecast scenarios Forecast site error rates Data exports for custom analysis

  25. What Thawcaster does Not Not do A perfect fit for all soil types Replace engineering judgement Replace experience

  26. Thawcaster Potential Data Sources Weather Underground Weather Unlocked NOAA Forecast IO Open Weather Map APIXU

  27. Thawcaster Data Collection Data initially collected from a single provider Eventually collected from multiple providers Collected via weather web API Stored in database

  28. Tools Thawcast Historical annual Thawcast Weather station error analysis

  29. Thawcast

  30. Thawcast Tracker

  31. Historical Annual Thawcast

  32. Weather Station Error Rate

  33. Weather Station Error Rate

  34. Weather Station Error Rate

  35. User Setup

  36. Station List

  37. Station Map

  38. Weather Stations • Create account • Request weather station by zip code • Data will automatically be gathered using available data providers (initially a single provider)

  39. Thawcaster Initial Release 2/20/17 • Request station by zip code • Thawcast for current weather forecast • FI/TI data for the current season • Data export • Add comments

  40. Additional Release Plans • Multiple data providers • Editable Thawcast or making custom projections • Annual historical Thawcast for years past • Comprehensive weather station error analysis

  41. Questions and Ideas? ctt@mtu.edu Phone: (906) 487-2102

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