How much have things changed ? 2017 1887 1952 NI Ulster (NI) NI - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How much have things changed ?

1887 Ulster (NI) Population 1.7 mil (1.14 mil) Births 39,606 (31,188) Deaths 30,151 (23,983) Deaths under 1 3,101 measles 333 scarlet fever 243 whooping cough 652 diptheria 182 diarrhoea and dysentry 572 cancer 823

• ld age

5529 bronchitis 3637 croup 268 accidents/ negligence 542 1952 NI Population 1.37 mil Births 28,760 Deaths 14,812 Deaths under 1 1,117 measles 8 scarlet fever 1 whooping cough 22 diptheria diarrhoea and dysentry 116 cancer 2,101

• ld age

n/a bronchitis 400 croup accidents/ Negligence 423 2017 NI Population 1.87 mil Births 23,075 Deaths 16,036 Deaths under 1 88 measles scarlet fever whooping cough diptheria diarrhoea and dysentry 23 cancer 4,581

• ld age

n/a bronchitis 400 croup 1 accidents/ Negligence 1037

2018 15,922 deaths

What does that look like in actual numbers of deaths per year?

What are the major causes of death at different ages ?

N=276 N=2,485 N=7,261 N=5,772

Lif ife Exp xpectancy at bir irth in in Northern Ir Ireland by y gender 1900-02 to 2016-18 ( exp xpressed in in years and based on three year tim ime perio iods)

Northern Ir Ireland Lif ife Expectancy in in years at bir irth 1981-2018 by Gender in in sin ingle years (n (non zero axis)

Why do women live longer than men ? (2 (2015-17 data)

How do we compare within UK and is the same pattern visible ?

Male Life Expectancy at birth 1980-2 to 2016-18 Female Life Expectancy at birth 1980-2 to 2016-18

Male Li Life expectancy across Europe – 2017 or la latest

80.4 79.5 78.3 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

Within Northern Ir Ireland c change since 2012-14 14

Public Health England and Office of f National Statistics work 2018

• Since 2011 increases in life expectancy have slowed, and data from

2015-2017 indicates decreasing life expectancy for males in parts of the UK including in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

• Of concern are the significant discrepancies in life expectancy

between areas of high and low deprivation. The gap has increased for males and females in England, Wales and Scotland, whilst narrowing slightly for males in Northern Ireland.

Gap in life expectancy between most and least deprived males and females 2015-2017

What driving the changes ? – some sugg ggested reasons b by commentators / / research

• Data fallacy
• Bad winter / flu
• Older people starting to die –natural limit
• Increased elderly = more demand on services – lack of supply creates unequal

services to those worst off.

• Vaccine denial
• Impact of immigration
• Reaching the limit of improvements re heart disease and smoking reductions
• Impact of austerity policies – changes hitting most deprived areas harder
• Beginning to see the impact of sedentary lifestyles / obesity?
• US experience – ‘ deaths of despair’

Slowdown in male life expectancy growth: Cause of death changes between different periods

Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH

Slowdown in female life expectancy growth: Cause of death changes between different periods

Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH

Seasonality and more recent data

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 average 2006-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019P

Deaths per month

Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH

Potentially avoidable premature mortality 2001-5 to 2013-17 Standardised Death rate

Suicide and Undetermined In Intent deaths 2001- 2018 2018

Healthy life expectancy

BMJ editorial by Sir Michael Marmot

• A health crisis is a

social crisis

• BMJ 2019; 365 doi: http

s://doi.org/10.1136/b mj.l2278 (Published 24 May 2019)Cite this as: BMJ 2019;365:l2278

Sources :

• Slide 5 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death
• Slide 6 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death
• Slide 7 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death
• Slide 8

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2016to2018 ttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2016to2018

• Slide 9

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018

• Slide 10 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
• Slide 11

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018

• Slide 12 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
• Slide 13 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18

Sources ctd

• Slide 15 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019
• Slide 16 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
• Slide 18 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
• Slide 19 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
• Slide 20 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/monthly-deaths
• Slide 21 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019
• Slide 22 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death
• Slide 23 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death
• Slide 24 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/suicide-statistics
• Slide 25 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019