Housing Choices Assessing Market Trends in the Rockies (and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Housing Choices Assessing Market Trends in the Rockies (and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 02, 2023 127 likes •759 views

Housing Choices Assessing Market Trends in the Rockies (and Glenwood Springs?) Community Development Academy Session 4 Clark Anderson, Sonoran Institute canderson@sonoraninstitute.org Is the housing market shifting? National Assn of

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Housing Choices Assessing Market Trends in the Rockies (and Glenwood Springs?)

Community Development Academy Session 4

Clark Anderson, Sonoran Institute canderson@sonoraninstitute.org

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  • National Assn of Realtors
  • National Assn of Home Builders
  • Robert Charles Lesser Co.
  • PriceWaterhouseCoopers
  • Urban Land Institute
  • Harvard Center for Housing

Policy

Is the housing market shifting?

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Is the housing market shifting?

Growing Demand (nationally) for:

  • Walkable homes / neighborhoods
  • Convenience and access
  • “Sense of place” or “community”
  • Core areas - access to a range of

amenities

  • People will “trade’ for these qualities
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Is the housing market shifting?

Growing Demand (nationally) for:

  • Walkable homes / neighborhoods
  • Convenience and access
  • “Sense of place” or “community”
  • Central locations; access to a broad

range of amenities

  • Smaller lots & home sizes
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Who is the future market?

Source: RCLCO

GEN Y MAKES UP THE LARGEST SHARE OF U.S. POPULATION, FOLLOWED BY BOOMERS, & GEN X

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Who is the future market?

Seeking: lifestyle, convenience, health & activity, low-maintenance, staying engaged Safety and proximity medical services are also priorities Other attractors : amenities, entertainment, culture, and education Source: RCLCO

Gen Y Boomers

Seeking: convenience, sense of community, work-life balance, coolness… 1/3 will pay more for housing walkable to shops, work, and entertainment 2/3 say living in a walkable community is very important to their location decision

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Smaller Households

Source: RCLCO

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Shrinking Household Income

$54,841 $52,788 $54,489 $50,054

$49,000 $50,000 $51,000 $52,000 $53,000 $54,000 $55,000 $56,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems

U.S. Real Wages, 2000-2011 This affects a wide variety of housing decisions including tenure, size, and location

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How are these trends unfolding in Rocky Mountain communities?

Purpose and Approach

  • Examine national trends in our region
  • Examine six sub-markets
  • Assess Market Performance
  • Survey Consumer Preferences
  • What will drive demand?
  • How do communities and the private

sector respond?

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No single housing type “owns” the market…

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Survey Background

  • Built on National Assn. of Realtors study
  • 327 returned out of 3000 sent (11%)
  • Distributed to different neighborhood

types in six communities

  • Respondents fairly diverse
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Which considerations are most important?

  • Location: a home in preferred community / neighborhood
  • Price: most affordable for preferred size; best value
  • Size: more space / larger home
  • Type: the type and design of the house
  • Resource efficiency: a home that minimizes resource consumption
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Which is more important, neighborhood or size of home?

  • 89 percent of respondents picked neighborhood over home size.
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88% 80% 7% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Sonoran Institute (Overall) National Association

  • f Realtors (2011)

Preference for Housing Type

Single-family detached Single-family attached Other [1]

Note [1]: Other includes townhomes, apartments, condominiums, mobile homes. Source: Economic & Planning Systems

 Similar to National

  • Assn. of Realtors

 Single family product

needs to evolve

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Asked to rank key neighborhood qualities

90% 57% 54% 66% 53% 34% 57% 23% 14% 24% 16% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Within an easy walk of other places / things in the community Living in a place that's away from it all Living in a place that's the center

  • f it all

Within an easy walk of other places / things in the community Living in a place that's away from it all Living in a pl that's the center

  • f it all

Sonoran NAR

Somewhat and Very Important Very Importan

Somewhat and Very Important Very Important

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38% 62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Houses farther apart; larger lots; drive to parks, playgrounds, and recreation Houses closer together; smaller lots; easy walk to parks, playgrounds, recreation

42% 58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Houses farther apart; larger lots; drive to schools, stores, restaurants Houses closer together on smaller lots; easy walk to schools, stores, restaurants

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63% 37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Own or rent a detached single-family house; drive to get downtown. Own or rent an apartment , condo, or townhouse; easy walk to downtown

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Asked about importance of various factors that influence choice in where to live?

  • 57 percent said proximity to transit is

important (24% said very important)

  • 89 percent said living within a 30min

commute was important

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Asked: When you chose your home, how broad were your choices?

  • 25% had many options in the price range

and neighborhood they wanted

  • 60% felt they had few or very few options
  • Growing demand on rental stock, lack of

quality units likely adding to the challenge

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How is compact walkable development faring in the market?

  • Analyzed premiums (MLS data) and market capture (building permits)
  • Looked at six different communities

What is a Premium?

  • Amount people will pay above market average
  • coffee = $0.99; cappuccino = $2.75

What is Market Capture?

  • How much a given product makes up of a larger market
  • Number of veggie pizza’s out of all pizzas sold…
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50% 40% 11% 13% 22% 15% 16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Carbondale, CO Eagle, CO Buena Vista, CO Bozeman, MT Teton Valley, ID Boise, ID Average (Weighted)

Smart Gr

Source: Local Building Departments; Economic & Planning Systems

Developer and realtor interviews suggest demand is growing. In CO, most estimates between 25%.and 30%, but higher in certain markets.

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People will pay more to live in walkable neighborhoods

Pre-recession Premium Average = 18.5% Post-recession Premium Average = 12.5% (not shown)

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Boise, ID Bozeman, MT

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What does it mean for Glenwood?

Are these trends are happening here? If so, what opportunities or challenges do they present? How should we respond?

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So what does this all mean?

Key themes and lessons

  • 1. The market is shifting. People have different needs/wants.
  • 2. Location, location, location…
  • 3. People will make tradeoffs.
  • 4. Walkablity commands a premium & occupies a growing niche in

the market.

  • 5. Choices limited… Much of today’s housing stock doesn’t match-

up with tomorrow’s demands. This is an opportunity.

  • 6. Change isn’t easy…
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Responding to Market Opportunities

  • 1. Prioritize pedestrian preferences…
  • 2. Allow & encourage expanded housing options
  • 3. Build better single- and multifamily housing
  • 4. Elevate opportunities for infill
  • 5. Set the table for desired development
  • Sound infrastructure investments
  • Invest in core areas and create new ones
  • Don’t cripple good projects, make it easier for

them to pencil out!

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Sense of Place

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Set the table for desired development

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Walkability Matters

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…but it is a challenge

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Amenities (Quality vs Quantity)

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Evolution of the Single Family Home

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Evolution of the Single Family Home

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Building Better Attached Housing

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Building Better Attached Housing

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Building Better Attached Housing

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Location: Core Assets

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Location: Core Assets

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Bringing Housing Downtown

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Transforming potential core areas Creating new “core” areas…

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Transforming potential core areas Creating new “core” areas…

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Transforming potential core areas Creating new “core” areas…

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The full package…

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 56 56

Current Conditions in Confluence Area

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 57 57

Current Conditions in Confluence Area

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Confluence Area Development Concept

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 59 59

Reorienting the Wye

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 60 60

8th Street Connection

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 61 61

9th Street Extension

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 62 62

School Land Swap

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 63 63

7th Street Extension and Defiance Ave

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 64 64

Glenwood River Trail Downtown Connection

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 65 65

Combined Infrastructure Elements

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 66 66

Design Concepts from Community Charrette

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 67 67

Development Program

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 68 68

Development Program

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Sonoran Institute – Community Builders Summit 69 69

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Confluence Vision from the Charrette

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Discussion Questions

  • What role can/should housing play in the Confluence

Area?

  • What type(s) of housing will work best?
  • What are the keys to market feasibility?
  • What are your reactions to the concept as presented?