Half Year Results 2010/11
18 November 2010
Half Year Results 2010/11 18 November 2010 Cautionary Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Half Year Results 2010/11 18 November 2010 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward- looking statements within
18 November 2010
Cautionary Statement
This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward- looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements include information with respect to National Grid's financial condition, results of operations and businesses, strategy, plans and objectives. Words such as 'anticipates', 'expects', 'intends', 'plans', 'believes', 'seeks', 'estimates', 'targets', 'may', 'will', 'continue', 'project' and similar expressions, as well as statements in the future tense, identify forward-looking statements. These forward- looking statements are not guarantees of National Grid's future performance and are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond National Grid's ability to control or estimate precisely, such as such as changes in laws or regulations and decisions by governmental bodies or regulators; breaches of, or changes in, environmental, climate change and health and safety laws or regulations; network failure or interruption, the inability to carry out critical non-network operations and damage to infrastructure; performance against regulatory targets and standards, including delivery of costs and efficiency savings; customers and counterparties failing to perform their obligations; and unseasonable weather affecting energy demands. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in this presentation include fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, commodity price indices and settlement of hedging arrangements; restrictions in National Grid's borrowing and debt arrangements; changes to credit ratings of National Grid and its subsidiaries; adverse changes and volatility in the global credit markets; National Grid's ability to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner and other sources of credit on acceptable terms; deflation or inflation; the seasonality of National Grid's businesses; the future funding requirements of National Grid's pension schemes and other post-retirement benefit schemes, and the regulatory treatment of pension costs; the loss of key personnel or the inability to attract, train or retain qualified personnel; new or revised accounting standards, rules and interpretations, including changes of law and accounting standards that may affect National Grid's effective rate of tax; incorrect assumptions or conclusions underpinning business development activity, and any unforeseen significant liabilities or other unanticipated or unintended effects of such activities and the performance of National Grid's subsidiaries. In addition National Grid's reputation may be harmed if consumers of energy suffer a disruption to their supply. For a more detailed description of some of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties, together with any other risk factors, please see National Grid's filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (and in particular the Risk Factors and Operating and Financial Review sections in its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F). The effects of these factors are difficult to predict. New factors emerge from time to time and National Grid cannot assess the potential impact of any such factor on its activities or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause its results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Except as may be required by law or regulation, National Grid undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation
Steve Holliday
Agenda
Operational performance Financial results Update on priorities
Operational performance
Safety
Reliability
Customer satisfaction
Efficiency
Strong financial results
Operating profit up 31% Operating cash flows up 20% Earnings up 18% EPS up 5% Interim dividend up 8%
Steve Lucas Finance Director
Strong financial results
Operating profit up 31% Operating cash flows up 20% Earnings up 18% EPS up 5% Interim dividend up 8%
£6m £(16)m £109m £(14)m £724m £639m
2009 Net regulated income US Timing Depreciation Net other 2010
Transmission
Operating profit at constant currency
Transmission
(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Operating profit
at constant currency share of group
£59m £(27)m £24m £18m £324m £250m
2009 Net regulated income US Timing Bad debts Net other including £(19)m depreciation 2010
Gas Distribution
Operating profit at constant currency
Gas Distribution
(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Operating profit
at constant currency share of group
£129m £(13)m £66m £5m £360m £173m
2009 Net regulated income Timing Bad debts Net other 2010
ED & G
Electricity Distribution and Generation
(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Operating profit
at constant currency share of group Operating profit at constant currency
Non-reg. & other
£90m £1m £8m £101m £2m
2009 Grain LNG Property Metering 2010 Operating profit at constant currency
Non-regulated and other
(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Operating profit
at constant currency share of group
Group operating profit
Operating profit
£1,509m
Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results (when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Operating cash flow
Net operating cash flow
at actual FX
£1,607m £1,933m
2009 2010
1,607 1,933 Net operating cash flow 282 (28) Working capital &
(409) (167) Pensions 585 619 Depreciation & amortisation 1,149 1,509 Operating profit 30 September 2009 £m 30 September 2010 £m Six months ended
Net Debt
Closing net debt
£m Net debt at 1 April 2010 (22,139) Operating cash flow (a) 1,933 Interest & tax (652) Cash investment (1,585)* Dividends (472) Proceeds from rights issue 3,218 Other (b) 38 Net debt before FX (19,659) FX movements 413 Net debt at 30 September 2010 (19,246)
£(22.1)bn £(19.2)bn
'1 April 2010 30-Sep-10
(a) Operating cash flow from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation (b) Includes cash flows relating to exceptional operating items, stranded cost recoveries and other non cash items *Including JVs and disposals
1 April 2010 30 September 2010
Effective cash management
£731m £182m £619m 2010
Debt buybacks Debt maturities Bank loans prepaid
50 debt repurchases in period
10 individual bonds 2 bank loans prepaid Debt maturities not refinanced
Cost savings and efficiency
KeySpan synergy savings on track for $200m 1% reduction in controllable costs* Efficiency metric** set to improve at the full year
* Controllable costs excluding bad debts, pension and other post employment benefits ** Regulated controllable costs excluding bad debts on a constant currency basis divided by mid-year UK regulatory asset value plus US rate base at constant currency.
Interest, tax, and exchange rates
Net finance costs
(574) 2010 (504) Net finance cost, actual FX (£m) 2009 6 months ended 30 September
Effective tax rate
Full year rate expected to be c.30%
(279) 2010 (93) Tax (£m) 2009 6 months ended 30 September
Net currency impact
1.60 1.57 Closing $/£ rate 1.52 2010 1.55 Average $/£ rate for the period 2009 6 months ended 30 September
at actual FX
£760m £542m £204m £175m
Capital investment
Capital investment
Capital investment to significantly increase over 2009/10 Further increase in Transmission investment during second half
Non-regulated & other (including joint ventures) Electricity Distribution & Generation
Transmission Gas Distribution
Capital investment
September 2010: 24km Easington gas transmission pipeline
~£63m
October 2010: New Tilbury 400kv Substation & up rating of 15km of power cable
~£62m
October 2010: 44km Wormington gas transmission pipeline
~£89m
September 2010: GIS substation connection for Dong Energy
~£56m
Completed Completed
Completed Completed
Summary
Steve Holliday
Update on priorities
US regulatory progress UK regulatory update Capital investment programme
Average annual US electric and gas rate filing submissions 31 54 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010
US industry rate filings
Rate case filings
*2010 figure year to date
*
Source: SNL Regulatory Research Associates
Rate case outcomes
269 14 66 58 44 23 39 14 6 5
50 100 150 200 250 300
Narr Gas Long Island Gen Energy- North NM PC Gas Narr Elec M ass Elec NM PC Gas* Energy North** M ass Gas Total to date NM PC Elec Future Rate Filings
$m
Nov 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Dec 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2010 May 2009 Apr 2009 Feb 2009 Rates Effective
Revenue Increases Post KeySpan Merger
* Year 2 re-opener of existing rate case to update recovery of pension/OPEB, property tax and environmental expenses ** Temporary rates, effective June 1 2010
TBD
Update on Massachusetts Gas
$331m $338m O&M expense 50% equity 53.6% equity Capital structure
debt true up
9.75% 11.3% Return on Equity $58m $104m Revenue Increase Granted Requested
Overall revenue increase
Changing features of rate plans
% Decoupled % Capital trackers % Pension true ups % Bad debt commodity trackers Dec 2007 Nov 2010
Percentage figure relates to proportion of rate base (at 31 Dec 2009) affected (excluding stranded costs)
% of business with feature or not exposed to risk* % gap
11% 12% 64% 24% 67% 64% 95% 71%
*Businesses that have a full or partial tracker or some other equivalent mechanism are included along with, for decoupling and bad debts, our transmission & generation rate plans which have no exposure to volumes or bad debts
Update on US regulatory progress
Decoupling, commodity bad debt, pensions, capital $11m EnergyNorth rate filing Features request Revenue request To be filed Decoupling, capital tracker Rhode Island Electric Decoupling, capital tracker Rhode Island Gas Decoupling, commodity bad debt, pensions, capital $361m NMPC Electric rate filing Features requested Revenue requested Filings in progress
Continuing strong UK performance Delivering attractive returns Ahead on incentives Delivering on investment plans
RIIO - Supporting UK investment
Innovation Retain ex ante control Incentives RIIO component 8 year price controls Outputs led through enhanced engagement
UK regulation timeline
RIIO TPCR4 roll over RIIO-T1 & RIIO-GD1 Business plans submitted Initial Strategy Conclusions Initial Strategy Consultation Mar 2011 Initial Proposals July 2011 Final Proposals Dec 2011 Dec 2010
2010/11 forecast capex spend and remuneration
1500 300 600 400 400 500
Non-reg & other* ED&G Gas Distribution US Gas Distribution UK Transmission US Transmission UK
Within year
1 year lag
2 year lag Non-reg customer contracts
Capex remuneration commences
More than
Not fully remunerated
in 2010/11
Up £0.4bn
Capex split
* Includes investment in joint ventures
Major UK investment projects
London cable tunnels £800m Currently in pre-engineering phase Currently in construction phase Thames Estuary connection and reinforcement works £100m Western HVDC link between Scotland & north Wales £650m Sizewell new generation connection works £450m Hinkley Point C nuclear power station connection works £400m
UK investment
Projects due to incur significant spend before March 2012
*Includes non-regulated investment & JVs
Regulated asset growth
Group assets CAGR 2010 - 2015
Capex – 5 year spend £22bn Total £2bn Other, including
Grain, interconnectors £6bn US regulated £14bn UK regulated
UK RAV estimated using depreciation methodology, regulatory asset lives and treatment of mains repex as per price controls starting in 2007 and 2008 and assuming inflation of 3.7% p.a. in 2010/11 & 2011/12 & 3% p.a. thereafter US rate base estimated using existing methodology as stipulated under current regulatory agreements
Asset annual growth rate 2010-2015 ~4% US regulated businesses ~4% UK Gas Distribution ~7% UK Gas Transmission ~13% UK Electricity Transmission
Outlook next 6 months
NMPC electric outcome RIIO strategy consultation £3.7bn full year forecast investment Continued push on cost efficiency Well positioned for full year
Investment and UK RAV Growth
Business £bn
UK regulated onshore electricity transmission £9bn UK gas transmission £2bn UK gas distribution £3bn US transmission £2bn US gas distribution £2bn US electricity distribution £2bn Other, including offshore transmission, Grain, interconnectors £2bn Total £22bn
2010/11 to 2014/15
*UK RAV estimated using depreciation methodology, regulatory asset lives and treatment of mains repex as per price controls starting in 2007 and 2008 and assuming inflation of 3.7% p.a. in 2010/11 & 2011/12 & 3% p.a. thereafter
£7.5bn £14.1bn £4.5bn £6.4bn £7.0bn £8.6bn
2010 2015
UKET UKGT UKGD
Pensions & other post employment benefit
Annually Annually 2010 2010 Next actuarial valuation expected (no obligation to fund deficits – standard practice adopted) 100% 100% N/A N/A OPEB costs & deficits recoverable (true-up mechanisms / filings lead to timing variances only) (legacy non-regulated and some ERDC excluded) 100% 100% 63% 98% Deficits recoverable 100% 100% 90% 98% Ongoing pension costs recoverable OPEBs Pensions NGUK PS ESPS Regulatory recovery principles US UK
allowances, with the majority of rate plans also containing reconciliation / true up mechanisms. Actual pension costs for this purpose are as measured on a US GAAP basis, which includes the amortisation of deficits or surpluses.
US pensions & other post employment benefit
Proposed reconciliation mechanism in rate case filing in 2010, however, it was denied Rhode Island (electric) Mechanism Jurisdiction Pension / OPEBs are a component of cost of service used to set rates. Level remains in effect until next rate case with no true-up. Approach 2: Base rates reset annually based on current year actuarial expense LIPA Generation Formula Rate – monthly reconciliation of actual expenses FERC Annual reconciliation agreed in 2008 rate case Rhode Island (gas) Reconciliation with deferred amounts collected / credited over 3 years Massachusetts Reconciliation with deferred amounts collected / credited in CTC (deferral account) reset New York Mechanism Jurisdiction Periodic reconciliation of revenues to true-up actual pension / OPEB costs. Approach 1: Each of our five US regulatory commissions regulate the level of costs related to pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs) that are charged to customers.
* Deferred tax is calculated using the UK statutory tax rate and the US effective tax rate attributable to the pension and OPEBs balances at 30 September 2010.
Pensions and other post retirement benefit
5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% Discount rates (2,525) (1,169) (622) (284) (450) Deficit net of deferred tax 1,459 762 411 111 175 Deferred tax* (3,984) (1,931) (1,033) (395) (625) Deficit (23,503) (2,909) (4,457) (14,000) (2,137) Present value of liabilities 19,519 978 3,424 13,605 1,512 Market value of assets Total OPEBs Pensions NGUK PS ESPS At 30 September 2010 (£m) US UK
US Timing impacts
Over / (under) collections impact Over / (under) collections impact (117) 24 (143) 2 Closing balance at 30 September 2010 194 129 59 6 Period on period variance (11) 64 (81) 6 2010 timing (205) (65) (140)
Total
& Gen. US Gas Distribution US Transmission
* Restated for change in reporting methodology and at constant currency
average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
Bad debt
% write-off of billed revenue
1.69% 1.61%
2009 2010
Improved performance across the Group
Ready reckoner - weighted average number of shares
554 19.4p 656 20.3p Business performance earnings (£m) Business performance EPS (2009 restated) 2,850 3,238 Weighted average number of shares (2009 restated) 352 29
29 380 3 Bonus element of rights issue (1.1427 bonus factor) August 2010 dividend scrip shares Non bonus element of rights issue (weighted from issuance) Other share issuances (weighted from issuance) 2,469 2,473 2,458 11
Prior period as reported (weighted average) January 2010 dividend scrip shares Current period opening shares Number of shares (millions): Period ended 30 September 2009 Period ended 30 September 2010
days: 637.4 * (109/183) = 380m