Half Year Results 2010/11 18 November 2010 Cautionary Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Half Year Results 2010/11 18 November 2010 Cautionary Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Half Year Results 2010/11 18 November 2010 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward- looking statements within


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SLIDE 1

Half Year Results 2010/11

18 November 2010

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SLIDE 2

Cautionary Statement

This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward- looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements include information with respect to National Grid's financial condition, results of operations and businesses, strategy, plans and objectives. Words such as 'anticipates', 'expects', 'intends', 'plans', 'believes', 'seeks', 'estimates', 'targets', 'may', 'will', 'continue', 'project' and similar expressions, as well as statements in the future tense, identify forward-looking statements. These forward- looking statements are not guarantees of National Grid's future performance and are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond National Grid's ability to control or estimate precisely, such as such as changes in laws or regulations and decisions by governmental bodies or regulators; breaches of, or changes in, environmental, climate change and health and safety laws or regulations; network failure or interruption, the inability to carry out critical non-network operations and damage to infrastructure; performance against regulatory targets and standards, including delivery of costs and efficiency savings; customers and counterparties failing to perform their obligations; and unseasonable weather affecting energy demands. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in this presentation include fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, commodity price indices and settlement of hedging arrangements; restrictions in National Grid's borrowing and debt arrangements; changes to credit ratings of National Grid and its subsidiaries; adverse changes and volatility in the global credit markets; National Grid's ability to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner and other sources of credit on acceptable terms; deflation or inflation; the seasonality of National Grid's businesses; the future funding requirements of National Grid's pension schemes and other post-retirement benefit schemes, and the regulatory treatment of pension costs; the loss of key personnel or the inability to attract, train or retain qualified personnel; new or revised accounting standards, rules and interpretations, including changes of law and accounting standards that may affect National Grid's effective rate of tax; incorrect assumptions or conclusions underpinning business development activity, and any unforeseen significant liabilities or other unanticipated or unintended effects of such activities and the performance of National Grid's subsidiaries. In addition National Grid's reputation may be harmed if consumers of energy suffer a disruption to their supply. For a more detailed description of some of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties, together with any other risk factors, please see National Grid's filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (and in particular the Risk Factors and Operating and Financial Review sections in its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F). The effects of these factors are difficult to predict. New factors emerge from time to time and National Grid cannot assess the potential impact of any such factor on its activities or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause its results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Except as may be required by law or regulation, National Grid undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation

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SLIDE 3

Half Year Results 2010/11

Steve Holliday

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SLIDE 4

Agenda

Operational performance Financial results Update on priorities

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SLIDE 5

Operational performance

Safety

  • 16% improvement in Injury Frequency rate
  • Improved process safety

Reliability

  • On track to meet UK reliability performance
  • US may be impacted by extreme weather events

Customer satisfaction

  • UK Gas Dx up 2% since last year
  • US Gas Dx residential up from 3rd to 2nd quartile

Efficiency

  • Delivering KeySpan efficiency savings
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SLIDE 6

Strong financial results

Six months to Sep 2010

Operating profit up 31% Operating cash flows up 20% Earnings up 18% EPS up 5% Interim dividend up 8%

  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results (when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
  • Prior year reported EPS of 22.5p has been restated to 19.4p reflecting scrip dividends and the impact of the bonus element of the rights issue
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Operating cash flow from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation
  • Prior year dividend rebased reflecting the impact of the bonus element of the rights issue
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SLIDE 7

Half Year Results 2010/11

Steve Lucas Finance Director

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SLIDE 8

Strong financial results

Six months to Sep 2010

Operating profit up 31% Operating cash flows up 20% Earnings up 18% EPS up 5% Interim dividend up 8%

  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results (when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)
  • Prior year reported EPS of 22.5p has been restated to 19.4p reflecting scrip dividends and the impact of the bonus element of the rights issue
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Operating cash flow from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation
  • Prior year dividend rebased reflecting the impact of the bonus element of the rights issue
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SLIDE 9

£6m £(16)m £109m £(14)m £724m £639m

2009 Net regulated income US Timing Depreciation Net other 2010

Transmission

  • perating profit

48%

Operating profit at constant currency

Transmission

  • Visual representation only – not to scale
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results

(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

Operating profit

13% up

at constant currency share of group

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SLIDE 10

£59m £(27)m £24m £18m £324m £250m

2009 Net regulated income US Timing Bad debts Net other including £(19)m depreciation 2010

Gas Distribution

  • perating profit

21%

Operating profit at constant currency

Gas Distribution

  • Visual representation only – not to scale
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results

(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

Operating profit

30% up

at constant currency share of group

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SLIDE 11

£129m £(13)m £66m £5m £360m £173m

2009 Net regulated income Timing Bad debts Net other 2010

ED & G

  • perating profit

24%

Electricity Distribution and Generation

  • Visual representation only – not to scale
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results

(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

Operating profit

108% up

at constant currency share of group Operating profit at constant currency

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SLIDE 12

Non-reg. & other

  • perating profit

7%

£90m £1m £8m £101m £2m

2009 Grain LNG Property Metering 2010 Operating profit at constant currency

Non-regulated and other

  • Visual representation only – not to scale
  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results

(when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

Operating profit

12% up

at constant currency share of group

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SLIDE 13

Group operating profit

Operating profit

31% up

£1,509m

Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results (when the average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

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SLIDE 14

Operating cash flow

Net operating cash flow

20% up

at actual FX

£1,607m £1,933m

2009 2010

  • Operating cash flow from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation.
  • Further details on pensions including IAS19 data and regulatory recovery principles available in the Appendix

1,607 1,933 Net operating cash flow 282 (28) Working capital &

  • ther

(409) (167) Pensions 585 619 Depreciation & amortisation 1,149 1,509 Operating profit 30 September 2009 £m 30 September 2010 £m Six months ended

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SLIDE 15

Net Debt

Closing net debt

£2.9bn lower

£m Net debt at 1 April 2010 (22,139) Operating cash flow (a) 1,933 Interest & tax (652) Cash investment (1,585)* Dividends (472) Proceeds from rights issue 3,218 Other (b) 38 Net debt before FX (19,659) FX movements 413 Net debt at 30 September 2010 (19,246)

£(22.1)bn £(19.2)bn

'1 April 2010 30-Sep-10

(a) Operating cash flow from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation (b) Includes cash flows relating to exceptional operating items, stranded cost recoveries and other non cash items *Including JVs and disposals

1 April 2010 30 September 2010

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SLIDE 16

Effective cash management

£731m £182m £619m 2010

Debt buybacks Debt maturities Bank loans prepaid

Debt buybacks reduce cost of carry

50 debt repurchases in period

10 individual bonds 2 bank loans prepaid Debt maturities not refinanced

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SLIDE 17

Cost savings and efficiency

KeySpan synergy savings on track for $200m 1% reduction in controllable costs* Efficiency metric** set to improve at the full year

* Controllable costs excluding bad debts, pension and other post employment benefits ** Regulated controllable costs excluding bad debts on a constant currency basis divided by mid-year UK regulatory asset value plus US rate base at constant currency.

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SLIDE 18

Interest, tax, and exchange rates

Net finance costs

£70m up

(574) 2010 (504) Net finance cost, actual FX (£m) 2009 6 months ended 30 September

Effective tax rate

29.7%

Full year rate expected to be c.30%

(279) 2010 (93) Tax (£m) 2009 6 months ended 30 September

Net currency impact

£(3)m

  • n earnings

1.60 1.57 Closing $/£ rate 1.52 2010 1.55 Average $/£ rate for the period 2009 6 months ended 30 September

  • Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations

at actual FX

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SLIDE 19

£760m £542m £204m £175m

Capital investment

£1.7 billion

Capital investment

Capital investment to significantly increase over 2009/10 Further increase in Transmission investment during second half

Non-regulated & other (including joint ventures) Electricity Distribution & Generation

  • Capital investment including investment in joint ventures

Transmission Gas Distribution

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SLIDE 20

Capital investment

September 2010: 24km Easington gas transmission pipeline

~£63m

October 2010: New Tilbury 400kv Substation & up rating of 15km of power cable

~£62m

October 2010: 44km Wormington gas transmission pipeline

~£89m

September 2010: GIS substation connection for Dong Energy

~£56m

Completed Completed

Completed Completed

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SLIDE 21

Summary

Strong results Interim dividend up 8% Well positioned for 2010/11

  • Prior year dividend rebased reflecting the impact of the bonus element of the rights issue
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SLIDE 22
  • This slide has been intentionally left blank
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SLIDE 23

Half Year Results 2010/11

Steve Holliday

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SLIDE 24

Update on priorities

US regulatory progress UK regulatory update Capital investment programme

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SLIDE 25

Average annual US electric and gas rate filing submissions 31 54 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

US industry rate filings

Rate case filings

Increasing

*2010 figure year to date

*

Source: SNL Regulatory Research Associates

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SLIDE 26

Rate case outcomes

269 14 66 58 44 23 39 14 6 5

50 100 150 200 250 300

Narr Gas Long Island Gen Energy- North NM PC Gas Narr Elec M ass Elec NM PC Gas* Energy North** M ass Gas Total to date NM PC Elec Future Rate Filings

$m

Nov 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Dec 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2010 May 2009 Apr 2009 Feb 2009 Rates Effective

Revenue Increases Post KeySpan Merger

* Year 2 re-opener of existing rate case to update recovery of pension/OPEB, property tax and environmental expenses ** Temporary rates, effective June 1 2010

TBD

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SLIDE 27

Update on Massachusetts Gas

$331m $338m O&M expense 50% equity 53.6% equity Capital structure

  • Commodity bad

debt true up

  • Pension true up
  • Capital tracker
  • Decoupling

9.75% 11.3% Return on Equity $58m $104m Revenue Increase Granted Requested

Overall revenue increase

$58m

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SLIDE 28

Changing features of rate plans

% Decoupled % Capital trackers % Pension true ups % Bad debt commodity trackers Dec 2007 Nov 2010

Percentage figure relates to proportion of rate base (at 31 Dec 2009) affected (excluding stranded costs)

% of business with feature or not exposed to risk* % gap

11% 12% 64% 24% 67% 64% 95% 71%

*Businesses that have a full or partial tracker or some other equivalent mechanism are included along with, for decoupling and bad debts, our transmission & generation rate plans which have no exposure to volumes or bad debts

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SLIDE 29

Update on US regulatory progress

Decoupling, commodity bad debt, pensions, capital $11m EnergyNorth rate filing Features request Revenue request To be filed Decoupling, capital tracker Rhode Island Electric Decoupling, capital tracker Rhode Island Gas Decoupling, commodity bad debt, pensions, capital $361m NMPC Electric rate filing Features requested Revenue requested Filings in progress

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SLIDE 30

Continuing strong UK performance Delivering attractive returns Ahead on incentives Delivering on investment plans

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SLIDE 31

RIIO - Supporting UK investment

Innovation Retain ex ante control Incentives RIIO component 8 year price controls Outputs led through enhanced engagement

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SLIDE 32

UK regulation timeline

RIIO TPCR4 roll over RIIO-T1 & RIIO-GD1 Business plans submitted Initial Strategy Conclusions Initial Strategy Consultation Mar 2011 Initial Proposals July 2011 Final Proposals Dec 2011 Dec 2010

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SLIDE 33

2010/11 forecast capex spend and remuneration

1500 300 600 400 400 500

Non-reg & other* ED&G Gas Distribution US Gas Distribution UK Transmission US Transmission UK

Within year

1 year lag

2 year lag Non-reg customer contracts

Capex remuneration commences

More than

99%

  • f capex remunerated

Not fully remunerated

£3.7bn*

in 2010/11

Up £0.4bn

Capex split

  • Assumes an average exchange rate of $1.60 to £1.00 for the year

* Includes investment in joint ventures

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SLIDE 34

Major UK investment projects

London cable tunnels £800m Currently in pre-engineering phase Currently in construction phase Thames Estuary connection and reinforcement works £100m Western HVDC link between Scotland & north Wales £650m Sizewell new generation connection works £450m Hinkley Point C nuclear power station connection works £400m

UK investment

£16bn*

  • ver 5 years

Projects due to incur significant spend before March 2012

*Includes non-regulated investment & JVs

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SLIDE 35

Regulated asset growth

Group assets CAGR 2010 - 2015

7% p.a.

Capex – 5 year spend £22bn Total £2bn Other, including

  • ffshore transmission,

Grain, interconnectors £6bn US regulated £14bn UK regulated

UK RAV estimated using depreciation methodology, regulatory asset lives and treatment of mains repex as per price controls starting in 2007 and 2008 and assuming inflation of 3.7% p.a. in 2010/11 & 2011/12 & 3% p.a. thereafter US rate base estimated using existing methodology as stipulated under current regulatory agreements

Asset annual growth rate 2010-2015 ~4% US regulated businesses ~4% UK Gas Distribution ~7% UK Gas Transmission ~13% UK Electricity Transmission

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SLIDE 36

Outlook next 6 months

NMPC electric outcome RIIO strategy consultation £3.7bn full year forecast investment Continued push on cost efficiency Well positioned for full year

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SLIDE 37

Appendix 2010/11

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SLIDE 38

Investment and UK RAV Growth

Business £bn

UK regulated onshore electricity transmission £9bn UK gas transmission £2bn UK gas distribution £3bn US transmission £2bn US gas distribution £2bn US electricity distribution £2bn Other, including offshore transmission, Grain, interconnectors £2bn Total £22bn

Group capex

2010/11 to 2014/15

UK RAV*

*UK RAV estimated using depreciation methodology, regulatory asset lives and treatment of mains repex as per price controls starting in 2007 and 2008 and assuming inflation of 3.7% p.a. in 2010/11 & 2011/12 & 3% p.a. thereafter

£7.5bn £14.1bn £4.5bn £6.4bn £7.0bn £8.6bn

2010 2015

UKET UKGT UKGD

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SLIDE 39

Pensions & other post employment benefit

  • bligations: regulatory recovery principles

Annually Annually 2010 2010 Next actuarial valuation expected (no obligation to fund deficits – standard practice adopted) 100% 100% N/A N/A OPEB costs & deficits recoverable (true-up mechanisms / filings lead to timing variances only) (legacy non-regulated and some ERDC excluded) 100% 100% 63% 98% Deficits recoverable 100% 100% 90% 98% Ongoing pension costs recoverable OPEBs Pensions NGUK PS ESPS Regulatory recovery principles US UK

  • US pensions and OPEBs on going and deficit costs are typically 100% recoverable for regulated activities through base

allowances, with the majority of rate plans also containing reconciliation / true up mechanisms. Actual pension costs for this purpose are as measured on a US GAAP basis, which includes the amortisation of deficits or surpluses.

  • OPEBs = Other Post Employment Benefits.
  • ERDC = Early Retirement Deficit Contributions.
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SLIDE 40

US pensions & other post employment benefit

  • bligations: regulatory treatment by rate plan

Proposed reconciliation mechanism in rate case filing in 2010, however, it was denied Rhode Island (electric) Mechanism Jurisdiction Pension / OPEBs are a component of cost of service used to set rates. Level remains in effect until next rate case with no true-up. Approach 2: Base rates reset annually based on current year actuarial expense LIPA Generation Formula Rate – monthly reconciliation of actual expenses FERC Annual reconciliation agreed in 2008 rate case Rhode Island (gas) Reconciliation with deferred amounts collected / credited over 3 years Massachusetts Reconciliation with deferred amounts collected / credited in CTC (deferral account) reset New York Mechanism Jurisdiction Periodic reconciliation of revenues to true-up actual pension / OPEB costs. Approach 1: Each of our five US regulatory commissions regulate the level of costs related to pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs) that are charged to customers.

  • New Hampshire has not been included above as we are currently evaluating our options to allow us to exit these businesses.
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SLIDE 41

* Deferred tax is calculated using the UK statutory tax rate and the US effective tax rate attributable to the pension and OPEBs balances at 30 September 2010.

  • OPEBs = Other Post Employment Benefits.

Pensions and other post retirement benefit

  • bligations (IAS19 data)

5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% Discount rates (2,525) (1,169) (622) (284) (450) Deficit net of deferred tax 1,459 762 411 111 175 Deferred tax* (3,984) (1,931) (1,033) (395) (625) Deficit (23,503) (2,909) (4,457) (14,000) (2,137) Present value of liabilities 19,519 978 3,424 13,605 1,512 Market value of assets Total OPEBs Pensions NGUK PS ESPS At 30 September 2010 (£m) US UK

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SLIDE 42

US Timing impacts

Over / (under) collections impact Over / (under) collections impact (117) 24 (143) 2 Closing balance at 30 September 2010 194 129 59 6 Period on period variance (11) 64 (81) 6 2010 timing (205) (65) (140)

  • 2009 timing*

Total

  • Elec. Dist.

& Gen. US Gas Distribution US Transmission

* Restated for change in reporting methodology and at constant currency

  • Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2010 rate ($1.52 to £1.00) to 2009 results (when the

average rate was $1.55 to £1.00)

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SLIDE 43

Bad debt

% write-off of billed revenue

8 bps lower

  • n prior period

1.69% 1.61%

2009 2010

Improved performance across the Group

  • Bad debts write off as a percentage of 180 day lagged revenues on a 12 month rolling basis, for continuing operations.
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SLIDE 44

Ready reckoner - weighted average number of shares

554 19.4p 656 20.3p Business performance earnings (£m) Business performance EPS (2009 restated) 2,850 3,238 Weighted average number of shares (2009 restated) 352 29

  • 353

29 380 3 Bonus element of rights issue (1.1427 bonus factor) August 2010 dividend scrip shares Non bonus element of rights issue (weighted from issuance) Other share issuances (weighted from issuance) 2,469 2,473 2,458 11

  • 2,473

Prior period as reported (weighted average) January 2010 dividend scrip shares Current period opening shares Number of shares (millions): Period ended 30 September 2009 Period ended 30 September 2010

  • Total rights issue shares of 990.4m issued on 14th June 2010. Non bonus shares of 637.5m (990.4m – 353m) in issue for 109 days out of 183

days: 637.4 * (109/183) = 380m