Grandview School District No. 200 Capital Facilities Planning November 7, 2016
JONGORES MANAGING DIRECTOR (206) 389-4043
JGORES@DADCO.COM
Grandview School District No. 200 Capital Facilities Planning - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Grandview School District No. 200 Capital Facilities Planning November 7, 2016 J ON G ORES M ANAGING D IRECTOR (206) 389-4043 JGORES @ DADCO . COM 1 Discussion Topics Election Results Capital Facilities Financing Tax Rate Projections
JONGORES MANAGING DIRECTOR (206) 389-4043
JGORES@DADCO.COM
1
* February 9, 2016 and April 26, 2016 election results only. Source: Washington Secretary of State: Election and Voting website and individual County Auditor websites
2014
M&O Levies 160 Passed and 3 Failed Capital Project Levies 49 Passed and 3 Failed Transportation Levies 1 Passed and 1 Failed Bond Authorizations 13 Passed and 27 Failed
2015
M&O Levies 46 Passed and 2 Failed Capital Project Levies 16 Passed and 2 Failed Transportation Levies 2 Passed and 1 Failed Bond Authorizations 23 Passed and 22 Failed
2016*
M&O Levies 131 Passed and 3 Failed Capital Project Levies 27 Passed and 2 Failed Transportation Levies 2 Passed and 0 Failed Bond Authorizations 21 Passed and 19 Failed
2
Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction
3
– Voted – Unlimited Tax General Obligation Bonds (UTGO) – Non-voted – Limited General Obligation Bonds (LGO)
– Repaid with property taxes – Approved with a 60% yes vote, 40% validation – 5% Debt Capacity = $38,689,489 – $5,010,000 (Outstanding Debt)* = $33,679,489
– Repaid with existing revenue – Can’t be used for “new” construction – 3/8 of 1% Debt Capacity = $2,901,712 – $1,600,000* = $1,301,712
*Voted debt reflects amount after 12/1/16 payment. Non-voted debt as of 9/1/15.
4
– Simple majority – Two to six year collection – No interest cost
– Cash is generated upfront – Payments can be spread over time – Districts have some control over taxpayer impacts
5
– UTGOR Bonds, 2015
6
$1,729,700 $1,762,300 $1,802,500
$1,550,000 $1,600,000 $1,650,000 $1,700,000 $1,750,000 $1,800,000 $1,850,000 $1,900,000 $1,950,000 $2,000,000 2016 2017 2018
Grandview School District - Existing Debt Service
Year Historical Bond AV Bond Levy Rate/$1000 2003 $453,842,679 3.43 2004 480,593,787 3.27 2005 536,253,129 2.88 2006 571,738,801 2.69 2007 580,960,148 2.69 2008 664,112,392 2.38 2009 679,478,418 2.37 2010 665,219,106 2.48 2011 708,718,599 2.36 2012 678,139,798 2.54 2013 699,498,925 2.52 2014 711,431,949 2.53 2015 732,593,880 2.53 2016 760,257,838 2.49 2017* 773,789,784 2.29 *Preliminary value. 7
8
9
Interest Rates § Lower interest rates result in lower tax rates for bonds. § Interest rates are determined when bonds are actually sold. § Assumption: 2017 Bond Sale Current rates plus 1.25% (125 basis points). 2018 Bond Sale Current rates plus 1.50% (150 basis points).
Moody’s Investors Service – Founded 1860 Highest Quality Aaa Aa1, Aa2, Aa3 A1, A2, A3 Baa1, Baa2, Baa3 Lowest Quality NR (Nonrated)
10
Bond Rating § A higher bond rating results in lower interest rates. § Assumption: Aa1 (with State Guarantee) A1 District Rating (Pending)
Debt Factors Economy
Governmental Factors
Debt Factors Financial Performance
11
Bond Rating (Continued) § Bond raters consider the local economy, District finances, and other factors § Assumption: Aa1 (with State Guarantee) A1 District Rating (Pending)
12
Assessed Value
Year Historical Bond AV New Construction Bond Levy Rate/$1000 % change 2006 571,738,801 4,938,590 $2.69 6.6% 2007 580,960,148 12,496,824 $2.69 1.6% 2008 664,112,392 13,218,479 $2.38 14.3% 2009 679,478,418 10,490,250 $2.37 2.3% 2010 665,219,106 10,605,742 $2.48
2011 708,718,599 5,555,463 $2.36 6.5% 2012 678,139,798 3,503,900 $2.54
2013 699,498,925 4,063,400 $2.52 3.1% 2014 711,431,949 6,124,459 $2.53 1.7% 2015 732,593,880 6,537,500 $2.53 3.0% 2016 760,257,838 6,537,501 $2.49 3.8% 2017* 773,789,784 5,775,191 $2.29 1.8% *Preliminary value.
5 year Compound Annual Growth Rate (2012-2017): 2.7% 10 year Compound Annual Growth Rate (2007-2017): 2.9%
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50
200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000 700,000,000 800,000,000 900,000,000 Bond Levy Rate (per $1,000 AV)
Bond Assessed Value
Historical Assessed Value and Levy Rates for Bonds
Historical Bond AV Bond Levy Rate/$1000
13
Assessed Value (Continued)
*Preliminary value.
14
Assessed Value (continued) § Projected Assessed Value Growth ̶ Final 2016: 3.78% growth ̶ Preliminary 2017: 1.78% growth ̶ Projected 2018-2038: 1.50% annual growth § An individual’s taxes will be based on the assessed value for their property § Higher assessed values will lower the District’s tax rates (but not the overall payment ) § New construction vs. increase in value of existing property
15
Bond Structure § State law gives Districts great flexibility in determining bond structures § Options ̶ Level Debt ̶ Level Tax Rate ̶ Stepped Level Tax Rate
16 Interest Rates: 2017 Bond Sale current rates plus 125 basis points; 2018 Bond Sale current rates plus 150 basis points Bond Rating: Aa1 State Guarantee District Rating: A1 (pending) Assessed Value Growth: Final 2016: 3.78% growth; Preliminary 2017: 1.78% growth; Projected 2018-2036: 1.50%annual growth
Scenario #16 #17 Authorization Amount $37,250,000 $40,325,000 Bond Sale Dates and Amounts $5,000,000 $5,000,000 June 1, 2017 December 1, 2018 $32,250,000 $35,325,000 Bond and Capital Levy Tax Rates Actual 2016 $3.18 $3.18 Projected 2017 2.98 2.98 2018 3.25 3.50 2020 3.25 3.50 2025 3.25 3.50 2030 3.24 3.50 2035 3.25 3.50 Total Interest Cost $25,288,000 $27,209,000 Final Maturity 2038 2038 Term 20 years 20 years Projected 2018 Bond Tax Rate increase over 2017 Bond/Capital Levy Tax Rate $0.27 $0.52
17
Rating: Interest Rates: Assessed Value Increases at: Actual 2016 Preliminary 2017 2018-2035 Issue 1 Issue 2 Total Bonds Issued: 6/1/17 12/1/18 Issue Size: $4.70M $29.98M $34.68M Deposit to Capital Project Fund: $5.00M $32.25M $37.25M Term (years): 19.5 20.0 Year Bond AV Bond AV Growth Rate Capital Levy Prior Debt 2017 2018 Total New Bonds Debt Service Fund Incr/ (Decr) Total Bond Levy Bond Levy + Cap Levy Capital Levy Prior Debt 2017 2018 Total New Bonds Debt Service Fund Incr/ (Decr) Total Bonds Bond Levy + Cap Levy Year 2000 407,430 N/A
1,328 1,328
3.26 3.26 2000 2001 427,634 4.96%
1,376 1,376
3.22 3.22 2001 2002 461,471 7.91%
1,520 1,520
3.29 3.29 2002 2003 453,843
1,556 1,556
3.43 3.43 2003 2004 480,594 5.89%
1,574 1,574
3.27 3.27 2004 2005 536,253 11.58%
1,546 1,546
2.88 2.88 2005 2006 571,739 6.62%
1,540 1,540
2.69 2.69 2006 2007 580,960 1.61%
1,560 1,560
2.69 2.69 2007 2008 664,112 14.31%
1,580 1,580
2.38 2.38 2008 2009 679,478 2.31%
1,610 1,610
2.37 2.37 2009 2010 665,219
1,650 1,650
2.48 2.48 2010 2011 708,719 6.54%
1,675
2.36 2.36 2011 2012 678,140
1,725
2.54 2.54 2012 2013 699,499 3.15%
1,760
2.52 2.52 2013 2014 711,432 1.71% 1,800
1,800
2.53 2014 2015 732,594 2.97% 1,808
1,850 1,850
2.53 2.53 2015 2016 760,258 3.78% 528 1,730
1,890 2,418 0.69 2.28
2.49 3.18 2016 2017 773,790 1.78% 533 1,762
1,770 2,303 0.69 2.28
2.29 2.98 2017 2018 785,397 1.50% 539 1,803 369
(162) 2,010 2,549 0.69 2.30 0.47
(0.21) 2.56 3.25 2018 2019 797,178 1.50%
1,858 2,339 250 2,589 2,589
2.33 2.93 0.31 3.25 3.25 2019 2020 809,135 1.50%
1,990 2,602 26 2,628 2,628
2.46 3.22 0.03 3.25 3.25 2020 2021 821,272 1.50%
2,022 2,667 2,667 2,667
2.46 3.25
3.25 2021 2022 833,591 1.50%
2,508 2,709 2,709 2,709
3.01 3.25
3.25 2022 2023 846,095 1.50%
2,546 2,748 2,748 2,748
3.01 3.25
3.25 2023 2024 858,787 1.50%
2,586 2,787 2,787 2,787
3.01 3.25
3.25 2024 2025 871,668 1.50%
2,630 2,832 2,832 2,832
3.02 3.25
3.25 2025 2026 884,743 1.50%
2,674 2,876 2,876 2,876
3.02 3.25
3.25 2026 2027 898,015 1.50%
2,717 2,918 2,918 2,918
3.03 3.25
3.25 2027 2028 911,485 1.50%
2,758 2,960 2,960 2,960
3.03 3.25
3.25 2028 2029 925,157 1.50%
2,803 3,004 3,004 3,004
3.03 3.25
3.25 2029 2030 939,034 1.50%
2,845 3,047 3,047 3,047
3.03 3.24
3.24 2030 2031 953,120 1.50%
2,896 3,097 3,097 3,097
3.04 3.25
3.25 2031 2032 967,417 1.50%
2,943 3,144 3,144 3,144
3.04 3.25
3.25 2032 2033 981,928 1.50%
2,986 3,188 3,188 3,188
3.04 3.25
3.25 2033 2034 996,657 1.50%
2,106 3,237 3,237 3,237
2.11 3.25
3.25 2034 2035 1,011,607 1.50%
1,817 3,287 3,287 3,287
1.80 3.25
3.25 2035 2036 1,026,781 1.50%
1,839 3,332 3,332 3,332
1.79 3.24
3.24 2036 2037 1,042,183 1.50%
3,386 3,386 3,386
3.25
3.25 2037 2038 1,057,815 1.50%
3,434 3,434 3,434
3.25
3.25 2038 2039 1,073,683 1.50%
Total Debt Service $8,622 $51,342 $59,963 Total Interest $3,622 $19,092 $25,288 Bond Yield 4.22% 4.31%
Run Date: 10.24.16
Assessed Value Summary ($000's) Levy Amount Detail ($000's) Levy Rate Detail 2017: Current Rates plus 125 bps, 2018: plus 150 bps 3.78% 1.78% 1.50%
Grandview School District No. 200
Scenario 16: 2017 Bond Election, $37.25 million, 1.50% AV Growth, 3.25 Bond Rate
Calculation Factors Tax Rate Impact: A1 Rating
NOTES:
18
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Grandview School District Projected Tax Rates Levy / $1000 Assessed Value
Existing Bonds 2017 Bonds 2018 Bonds
19
Grandview School District No. 200 Projected Debt Capacity - Scenario 16 ($ In Thousands)
Unused Capacity Date Assessed Valuation Debt Capacity (5% of AV) Outstanding Debt 2017 2018 Amount Percent 12/1/2016 760,258 38,013 3,410 34,603 91.0% 12/1/2017 773,790 38,689 1,750 4,700 32,239 83.3% 12/1/2018 785,397 39,270
29,975 4,595 11.7% 12/1/2019 797,178 39,859
29,975 5,419 13.6% 12/1/2020 809,135 40,457
29,600 6,767 16.7% 12/1/2021 821,272 41,064
29,180 8,219 20.0% 12/1/2022 833,591 41,680
28,255 9,760 23.4% 12/1/2023 846,095 42,305
27,250 11,390 26.9% 12/1/2024 858,787 42,939
26,150 13,124 30.6% 12/1/2025 871,668 43,583
24,945 14,973 34.4% 12/1/2026 884,743 44,237
23,630 16,942 38.3% 12/1/2027 898,015 44,901
22,200 19,036 42.4% 12/1/2028 911,485 45,574
20,650 21,259 46.6% 12/1/2029 925,157 46,258
18,970 23,623 51.1% 12/1/2030 939,034 46,952
17,155 26,132 55.7% 12/1/2031 953,120 47,656
15,190 28,801 60.4% 12/1/2032 967,417 48,371
13,070 31,636 65.4% 12/1/2033 981,928 49,096
10,790 34,641 70.6% 12/1/2034 996,657 49,833
9,265 37,833 75.9% 12/1/2035 1,011,607 50,580
7,945 41,220 81.5% 12/1/2036 1,026,781 51,339
44,809 87.3% 12/1/2037 1,042,183 52,109
48,619 93.3% 12/1/2038 1,057,815 52,891
100.0% 12/1/2039 1,073,683 53,684
100.0%
20
21
22
Rating: Interest Rates: Assessed Value Increases at: Actual 2016 Preliminary 2017 2018-2035 Issue 1 Issue 2 Total Bonds Issued: 6/1/17 12/1/18 Issue Size: $4.71M $32.84M $37.55M Deposit to Capital Project Fund: $5.00M $35.325M $40.325M Term (years): 19.5 20.0 Year Bond AV Bond AV Growth Rate Capital Levy Prior Debt 2017 2018 Total New Bonds Debt Service Fund Incr/ (Decr) Total Bond Levy Bond Levy + Cap Levy Capital Levy Prior Debt 2017 2018 Total New Bonds Debt Service Fund Incr/ (Decr) Total Bonds Bond Levy + Cap Levy Year 2000 407,430 N/A
1,328 1,328
3.26 3.26 2000 2001 427,634 4.96%
1,376 1,376
3.22 3.22 2001 2002 461,471 7.91%
1,520 1,520
3.29 3.29 2002 2003 453,843
1,556 1,556
3.43 3.43 2003 2004 480,594 5.89%
1,574 1,574
3.27 3.27 2004 2005 536,253 11.58%
1,546 1,546
2.88 2.88 2005 2006 571,739 6.62%
1,540 1,540
2.69 2.69 2006 2007 580,960 1.61%
1,560 1,560
2.69 2.69 2007 2008 664,112 14.31%
1,580 1,580
2.38 2.38 2008 2009 679,478 2.31%
1,610 1,610
2.37 2.37 2009 2010 665,219
1,650 1,650
2.48 2.48 2010 2011 708,719 6.54%
1,675
2.36 2.36 2011 2012 678,140
1,725
2.54 2.54 2012 2013 699,499 3.15%
1,760
2.52 2.52 2013 2014 711,432 1.71% 1,800
1,800
2.53 2014 2015 732,594 2.97% 1,808
1,850 1,850
2.53 2.53 2015 2016 760,258 3.78% 528 1,730
1,890 2,418 0.69 2.28
2.49 3.18 2016 2017 773,790 1.78% 533 1,762
1,770 2,303 0.69 2.28
2.29 2.98 2017 2018 785,397 1.50% 539 1,803 385
19 2,206 2,745 0.69 2.30 0.49
0.02 2.81 3.50 2018 2019 797,178 1.50%
2,117 2,709 81 2,790 2,790
2.66 3.40 0.10 3.50 3.50 2019 2020 809,135 1.50%
2,175 2,805 28 2,833 2,833
2.69 3.47 0.03 3.50 3.50 2020 2021 821,272 1.50%
2,205 2,873 2,873 2,873
2.69 3.50
3.50 2021 2022 833,591 1.50%
2,725 2,917 2,917 2,917
3.27 3.50
3.50 2022 2023 846,095 1.50%
2,770 2,962 2,962 2,962
3.27 3.50
3.50 2023 2024 858,787 1.50%
2,811 3,002 3,002 3,002
3.27 3.50
3.50 2024 2025 871,668 1.50%
2,855 3,047 3,047 3,047
3.28 3.50
3.50 2025 2026 884,743 1.50%
2,904 3,096 3,096 3,096
3.28 3.50
3.50 2026 2027 898,015 1.50%
2,951 3,143 3,143 3,143
3.29 3.50
3.50 2027 2028 911,485 1.50%
2,997 3,188 3,188 3,188
3.29 3.50
3.50 2028 2029 925,157 1.50%
3,045 3,236 3,236 3,236
3.29 3.50
3.50 2029 2030 939,034 1.50%
3,095 3,287 3,287 3,287
3.30 3.50
3.50 2030 2031 953,120 1.50%
3,142 3,334 3,334 3,334
3.30 3.50
3.50 2031 2032 967,417 1.50%
3,191 3,383 3,383 3,383
3.30 3.50
3.50 2032 2033 981,928 1.50%
3,241 3,432 3,432 3,432
3.30 3.50
3.50 2033 2034 996,657 1.50%
2,756 3,487 3,487 3,487
2.76 3.50
3.50 2034 2035 1,011,607 1.50%
1,955 3,537 3,537 3,537
1.93 3.50
3.50 2035 2036 1,026,781 1.50%
1,982 3,591 3,591 3,591
1.93 3.50
3.50 2036 2037 1,042,183 1.50%
3,648 3,648 3,648
3.50
3.50 2037 2038 1,057,815 1.50%
3,698 3,698 3,698
3.50
3.50 2038 2039 1,073,683 1.50%
Total Debt Service $8,497 $56,262 $64,759 Total Interest $3,497 $20,937 $27,209 Bond Yield 4.19% 4.31%
Run Date: 10.24.16
Assessed Value Summary ($000's) Levy Amount Detail ($000's) Levy Rate Detail 2017: Current Rates plus 125 bps, 2018: plus 150 bps 3.78% 1.78% 1.50%
Grandview School District No. 200
Scenario 17: 2017 Bond Election, $40.325 million, 1.50% AV Growth, 3.50 Bond Rate
Calculation Factors Tax Rate Impact: A1 Rating
NOTES:
23
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Grandview School District Projected Tax Rates Levy / $1000 Assessed Value
Existing Bonds 2017 Bonds 2018 Bonds
24
Grandview School District No. 200 Projected Debt Capacity - Scenario 17 ($ In Thousands)
Unused Capacity Date Assessed Valuation Debt Capacity (5% of AV) Outstanding Debt 2017 2018 Amount Percent 12/1/2016 760,258 38,013 3,410 34,603 91.0% 12/1/2017 773,790 38,689 1,750 4,710 32,229 83.3% 12/1/2018 785,397 39,270
32,840 1,740 4.4% 12/1/2019 797,178 39,859
32,840 2,679 6.7% 12/1/2020 809,135 40,457
32,430 4,087 10.1% 12/1/2021 821,272 41,064
31,975 5,604 13.6% 12/1/2022 833,591 41,680
30,980 7,215 17.3% 12/1/2023 846,095 42,305
29,895 8,925 21.1% 12/1/2024 858,787 42,939
28,710 10,744 25.0% 12/1/2025 871,668 43,583
27,415 12,683 29.1% 12/1/2026 884,743 44,237
26,000 14,752 33.3% 12/1/2027 898,015 44,901
24,460 16,956 37.8% 12/1/2028 911,485 45,574
22,790 19,299 42.3% 12/1/2029 925,157 46,258
20,980 21,793 47.1% 12/1/2030 939,034 46,952
19,020 24,447 52.1% 12/1/2031 953,120 47,656
16,905 27,266 57.2% 12/1/2032 967,417 48,371
14,625 30,261 62.6% 12/1/2033 981,928 49,096
12,170 33,441 68.1% 12/1/2034 996,657 49,833
10,065 36,823 73.9% 12/1/2035 1,011,607 50,580
8,645 40,410 79.9% 12/1/2036 1,026,781 51,339
44,219 86.1% 12/1/2037 1,042,183 52,109
48,264 92.6% 12/1/2038 1,057,815 52,891
100.0% 12/1/2039 1,073,683 53,684
100.0%
25
26
27
Mount Adams School District No. 209 154,375,727
Mabton School District No. 120 178,951,680
Sunnyside School District No. 201 1,262,953,670
Toppenish School District No. 202 621,862,689 0.9905 1.9703
Bickleton School District No. 203 8,837,568 2.7777 0.2950
Wapato School District No. 207 608,835,485 2.0531 1.6014
Union Gap School District No. 2 426,185,943 1.7598 2.3459
Zillah School District No. 205 396,663,725 1.8908 1.9603 0.3151
West Valley School District No. 208 2,520,836,155 1.7049 2.7364
Selah School District No. 119 1,491,160,745 1.1635 3.6142
Granger School District No. 204 292,428,458 2.6331 2.1679
Yakima School District No. 7 4,549,346,826 1.6816 3.1252
Highland School District No. 203 480,010,199 1.8738 3.1259
Grandview School District No. 200 697,198,482 2.4860 1.8632 0.6945
Naches School District No. 3 821,655,015 1.8146 3.3968
East Valley School District No. 90 1,385,354,035 2.5199 3.2951
(1) 2016 Assessed Value does not include TAV. (2) Yakima County values only.
Yakima County School Districts 2016 Total Tax Rates(1)
District Bonds ($) M&O ($)
Total ($) Assessed Value(2) ($) Capital ($)
Neither this materialnor any of its contents may be disclosed, sold, or redistributed, electronically or otherwise, without prior written consent ofDavidson Companies. The information presented herein is based on public information we believe to be reliable, prevailing market conditions, as well as our views at this point in time. We make no representation or w arranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Davidson Companies does not assumeany liabilityforany loss which may result from the relianceby any person upon such material. We make no representations regarding the legal, tax, regulatory, oraccounting implications of entering into a Transaction. Required Disclosure Pursuant to MSRB Rule G-23: An underwriter’s primary role will be to purchase as principal, or arrange for the placement of the securities in a commercial arm’s length transaction with the issuer, and mayhave financial and other interests thatdifferfrom those of the issuer. In its capacity as underwriter and not as financial advisor, an underwriter may provide incidental financial advisory services at the issuer’s request, including advice regarding the structure, timing, terms and other similar matters concerning the issuance. However, an underwriter does not assume any financial advisory or fiduciary responsibilities with respectto the issuer.