Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. and Washington Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional
Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar
January 20, 2010
The U.S. and Washington Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University
L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices
RECESSION > > > >
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012
% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > > > >
Initial Unemployment Claims
000s (4-week moving average)
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg Mfg
U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales
Existing
(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
THOUSANDS
Dec 09 =
Source: BLS Establishment Survey
000s
US Job Change
Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Dec
Source: BLS
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Nov, Dec = 10.0 %
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Forecast > > > > >
The Washington Economy
US GDP and Washington GRP
%
Washington GRP
US GDP
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC Suburban Maryland
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 08 – Nov 09
(000s)
Washington – 15,300
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change Washington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by Sector Nov 2008 – Nov 2009 Washington MSA
(000s) Total - 15,300
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate
November 2009
%
US 9.4
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.1
Total Active Listings Per Sale December Each Year
LDN PG FFX ARL
DC MONT
Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA
All Housing Types
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009
Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland
All Housing Types
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009
New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types
%
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Hanley Wood
9/2009 Pipeline (1) Totals Space Available (1) Demand (1) Vacancy 9/09 Vacancy 9/11
D.C. 127.5 5.8 133.3 17.5 1.3 10.2% 13.2% Sub. MD 88.2 0.8 89.0 12.9 0.8 14.6% 14.5%
175.9 1.7 177.6 23.4 2.0 13.5% 13.2% Metro 391.5 8.4 399.9 53.9 4.1 12.6% 13.5%
Office Market Outlook: 2009-2011 (millions of square feet)
Source: Delta Associates
(1) Projected for 9/11
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014
Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change)
%
DC SM MSA NV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D.C. D.C.
5.3 5.3 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 5.5 5.5 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.5
4.8 4.8 3.4 3.4 -
17.8 5.7 5.7 8.7 8.7 10.6 10.6 13.0 13.0 15.1 15.1
13.2 9.0 -11.2 13.7 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7
REGION
23.3 23.3 16.6 16.6 -
24.5 24.9 24.9 34.9 34.9 42.4 42.4 47.6 47.6 53.3 53.3
Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 20, 2010
On Behalf of The Real Deal
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010*
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2009-2010 data are projections
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009
Source: International Monetary Fund
Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2008 Growth
Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE 100
1 NYSE Group DJI A
12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market
9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite
2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite
8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General
6 Frankfurt SE DAX
4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225
5 Euronext CAC 40
11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index
10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel
7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2009 Growth
Rank Exchange Index Growth 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE 100 22.1% 5 Euronext CAC 40 21.5% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 16.6% 10* Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB NA
*Formerly MIBTel Index, Switched June 2009 (Up 52.2 percent from MIBTel January 2nd Value)
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch
as of May 2009
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2009Q3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2008Q3: -0.5%
U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales
January 2001 through November 2009
Source: Dismal.com
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store
December 2008 vs. December 2009
Source: Economy.com
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch
as of November 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
January 2001 through December 2009
12/09: -85k
Between December 2008 and December 2009, the U.S. lost 4.2 million jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups
December 2008 v. December 2009 Absolute Change
All Told
Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5%
Baltimore‐Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baltimore Total:
MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5%
Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
DC MSA Total:
US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
November 2009
Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.1 16 MINNESOTA 7.4 34 MISSISSIPPI 9.6 2 NEBRASKA 4.5 19 NEW MEXICO 7.8 36 NEW JERSEY 9.7 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 5.0 20 MAINE 8.0 37 GEORGIA 10.2 4 KANSAS 6.3 20 TEXAS 8.0 38 TENNESSEE 10.3 4 UTAH 6.3 22 CONNECTICUT 8.2 39 ALABAMA 10.5 6 MONTANA 6.4 22 WISCONSIN 8.2 40 KENTUCKY 10.6 6 VERMONT 6.4 24 WEST VIRGINIA 8.4 40 OHIO 10.6 8 VIRGINIA 6.6 25 DELAWARE 8.5 42 NORTH CAROLINA 10.8 9 IOWA 6.7 25 PENNSYLVANIA 8.5 43 ILLINOIS 10.9 9 LOUISIANA 6.7 27 NEW YORK 8.6 44 OREGON 11.1 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE 6.7 28 ALASKA 8.7 45 FLORIDA 11.5 12 COLORADO 6.9 29 MASSACHUSETTS 8.8 46 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 11.8 13 HAWAII 7.0 30 ARIZONA 8.9 47 CALIFORNIA 12.3 13 OKLAHOMA 7.0 31 IDAHO 9.1 47 NEVADA 12.3 15 WYOMING 7.2 32 WASHINGTON 9.2 47 SOUTH CAROLINA 12.3 16 ARKANSAS 7.4 33 MISSOURI 9.5 50 RHODE ISLAND 12.7 1 6 MARYLAND 7 .4 34 INDIANA 9.6 51 MICHIGAN 14.7
MD County Unemployment Rates
November 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 5.3 13 Kent County 7.7 1 Montgomery County 5.3 14 Baltimore County 7.8 3 Saint Mary’s County 5.9 15 Garrett County 8.0 4 Calvert County 6.0 16 Allegany County 8.6 5 Charles County 6.1 17 Wicomico County 9.0 5 Frederick County 6.1 18 Cecil County 9.3 7 Carroll County 6.3 19 Somerset County 9.5 8 Anne Arundel County 6.7 20 Caroline County 9.6 9 Queen Anne’s County 7.1 21 Washington County 10.0 10 Harford County 7.2 22 Baltimore City 10.9 11 Prince George's County 7.4 23 Dorchester County 11.9 11 Talbot County 7.4 24 Worcester County 14.6
Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA)
November 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 W ashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC, VA, MD, W V 6 .1 11
9.9 2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- WI 7.0 12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10.1 3 Baltim ore-Tow son, MD 7 .7 13 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 10.3 4 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 7.7 14 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10.3 5 Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX 7.9 15 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 10.3 6 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 8.1 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 10.6 7 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 8.2 17 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 11.5 8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD 8.5 18 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 12.3 9 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 8.8 19 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 14.2 10 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 8.9 20 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 15.4
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Commercial Real Estate Loans
January 2001 through November 2009
Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates
3rd Quarter 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Local Office Vacancy Rates
3rd Quarter 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis
15‐Year & 30‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
January 1995 through November 2009
Source: Freddie Mac
U.S. Existing Home Sales
September 2001 through November 2009
Source: Economy.com
U.S. New Home Sales
January 1999 through November 2009
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
U.S. New Residential Construction
January 1999 through November 2009
Source: Economy.com
Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction
December 2008 vs. December 2009
50 1,050 2,050 3,050 4,050 5,050 6,050 7,050 8,050
Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore County Harford Howard Carroll Queen Anne's
3,810 4,563 4,360 1,690 1,622 1,160 605 3,392 5,172 3,911 1,580 1,255 960 616
Active Inventory
Dec-08 Dec-09
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD December 2008 vs. December 2009
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150)
Annual Existing Single‐Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3
Source: National Association of Realtors
U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
Boston, MA: -7.0% New York, NY: - 14.1% Philly, PA: - 5.6% Baltimore, MD: -6.5% Washington, DC: -2.5%
Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150)
Annual Existing Single‐Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3
Source: National Association of Realtors
U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans
2005Q2 through 2009Q3
Source: Economy.com
The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.7 percent of Fixed Rate prime loans and 3.4 percent of all adjustable rate prime loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter.
National Mortgage Delinquency for … 2009 Q2: 6.41% 2009 Q3: 6.84%
Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates Subprime Mortgage Loans
2005Q2 through 2009Q3
Source: Economy.com
National Mortgage Delinquency for … 2009 Q2: 25.35% 2009 Q3: 26.42%
The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of fixed rate subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 2.6 percent while those with adjustable rates were 4.9 percent.
America’s Next Top Model
Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; We’ve seen the worst of it from a
broader economic perspective;
Too soon to tell if inflation will be
problematic;
U.S. dollar may be the economic
element to watch;
BRAC; Washington/Baltimore
region will continue to
probably surprise you;
This year represents a year of
moderate improvement but commercial . . .; &
2011????
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