Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. and Washington Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 20, 2010

U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov. 2006 – Nov. 2009 RECESSION > > > > L.I. C.I.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 Forecast > > > > > > > > > > % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight

Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average)

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg Non-Mfg

(000s) New & Existing Home Sales U.S. Housing Trends (Right Scale) New (left scale) Existing (000s)

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec 09 = - 4.1 Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey

US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s Dec -85 Source: BLS

U.S. Unemployment Rate % Nov, Dec = 10.0 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

The Washington Economy

Washington GRP US GDP US GDP and Washington GRP %

Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA 000s

Annual Job Change – MOTYC Suburban Maryland 000s

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 08 – Nov 09 (000s) Washington – 15,300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Nov 2008 – Nov 2009 Washington MSA Total - 15,300 (000s) Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2009 % US 9.4 6.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

Total Active Listings Per Sale December Each Year PG LDN DC MONT FFX ARL

Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Hanley Wood

Office Market Outlook: 2009-2011 (millions of square feet) 9/2009 Pipeline Totals Space Demand Vacancy Vacancy (1) Available (1) 9/09 9/11 (1) D.C. 127.5 5.8 133.3 17.5 1.3 10.2% 13.2% Sub. 88.2 0.8 89.0 12.9 0.8 14.6% 14.5% MD N. VA. 175.9 1.7 177.6 23.4 2.0 13.5% 13.2% Metro 391.5 8.4 399.9 53.9 4.1 12.6% 13.5% (1) Projected for 9/11 Source: Delta Associates

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 D.C. 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 D.C. 4.8 3.4 - -17.8 17.8 5.7 8.7 10.6 10.6 13.0 13.0 15.1 15.1 4.8 3.4 5.7 8.7 Sub. MD Sub. MD 13.2 9.0 -11.2 13.7 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7 No. VA No. VA 23.3 16.6 16.6 - -24.5 24.5 24.9 34.9 34.9 42.4 42.4 47.6 47.6 53.3 53.3 23.3 24.9 REGION Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

www.cra-gmu.org

The Amazing Race On Behalf of The Real Deal By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 20, 2010

Biggest Loser

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund *2009-2010 data are projections

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009 Source: International Monetary Fund

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE 100 -31.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 -41.5% 5 Euronext CAC 40 -42.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index Growth 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE 100 22.1% 5 Euronext CAC 40 21.5% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 16.6% 10* Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB NA *Formerly MIBTel Index, Switched June 2009 (Up 52.2 percent from MIBTel January 2 nd Value)

American Idle

Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody’s Economy

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2009Q3 2008Q3: -0.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through November 2009 Source: Dismal.com

U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store December 2008 vs. December 2009 Source: Economy.com

Recession Watch as of November 2009 Source: Moody’s Economy

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through December 2009 12/09: -85k Between December 2008 and December 2009, the U.S. lost 4.2 million jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2008 v. December 2009 Absolute Change -4,164k All Told Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore ‐ Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: -25.6K; -2.0% MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: -15.3K; -0.5% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) November 2009 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.1 16 MINNESOTA 7.4 34 MISSISSIPPI 9.6 2 NEBRASKA 4.5 19 NEW MEXICO 7.8 36 NEW JERSEY 9.7 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 5.0 20 MAINE 8.0 37 GEORGIA 10.2 4 KANSAS 6.3 20 TEXAS 8.0 38 TENNESSEE 10.3 4 UTAH 6.3 22 CONNECTICUT 8.2 39 ALABAMA 10.5 6 MONTANA 6.4 22 WISCONSIN 8.2 40 KENTUCKY 10.6 6 VERMONT 6.4 24 WEST VIRGINIA 8.4 40 OHIO 10.6 8 VIRGINIA 6.6 25 DELAWARE 8.5 42 NORTH CAROLINA 10.8 9 IOWA 6.7 25 PENNSYLVANIA 8.5 43 ILLINOIS 10.9 9 LOUISIANA 6.7 27 NEW YORK 8.6 44 OREGON 11.1 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE 6.7 28 ALASKA 8.7 45 FLORIDA 11.5 DISTRICT OF 12 COLORADO 6.9 29 MASSACHUSETTS 8.8 46 COLUMBIA 11.8 13 HAWAII 7.0 30 ARIZONA 8.9 47 CALIFORNIA 12.3 13 OKLAHOMA 7.0 31 IDAHO 9.1 47 NEVADA 12.3 15 WYOMING 7.2 32 WASHINGTON 9.2 47 SOUTH CAROLINA 12.3 16 ARKANSAS 7.4 33 MISSOURI 9.5 50 RHODE ISLAND 12.7 1 6 MARYLAND 7 .4 34 INDIANA 9.6 51 MICHIGAN 14.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • U.S. Unemployment Rate: November 09’ =10.0%

MD County Unemployment Rates November 2009 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 13 Kent County 5.3 7.7 1 14 Montgomery County Baltimore County 5.3 7.8 3 Saint Mary’s County 15 Garrett County 5.9 8.0 4 Calvert County 16 Allegany County 6.0 8.6 5 Charles County 17 Wicomico County 6.1 9.0 5 18 Frederick County Cecil County 6.1 9.3 7 Carroll County 19 Somerset County 6.3 9.5 8 Anne Arundel County 20 Caroline County 6.7 9.6 9 Queen Anne’s County 21 Washington County 7.1 10.0 10 Harford County 22 Baltimore City 7.2 10.9 11 23 Prince George's County Dorchester County 7.4 11.9 11 Talbot County 24 Worcester County 7.4 14.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics