Global Macro Survey Conducted with 700 investment professionals in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

European HY European IG Emerging Markets Global leveraged loans US HY US IG

Where do you see the best value in credit?

Q4 2017

Global Macro Survey

Source: M&G, Barclays, December 2017

Conducted with 700 investment professionals in Dec 2017

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Equities Commodities Emerging Markets (rates, credit, & FX) Credit Short-end, high quality bonds Long-end, high quality bonds

Which asset class will provide the best return in the next months?

Q4 2017

0% 50%

Other Worsening market liquidity conditions Further weakening in credit markets Deterioration in the pace of developed market growth Weak growth in China De-anchoring of inflation expectations Tightening policy by the Fed Worsening of Euro area tensions Geopolitical Developments

What is the biggest risk to markets over the 12 months?

Q4 2017

• 10%
• 5%

0% 5%

YTD 2018 Performance

Government bonds

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, June 2018

Corporate bonds

EMs Currencies Equities

Source: Bloomberg, June 2018. BAML indices for developed credit and government bonds; JPM indices for emerging markets

BONDVIGILANTES

YTD Performance of major bond markets

Total returns in local currency unless otherwise stated

• 0.3
• 0.85
• 0.39
• 1.48
• 0.32
• 2.23
• 3.33
• 7.31
• 1.05

0.48

• 0.27
• 5.07
• 2.79
• 0.16
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 Total Return % Return from duration effect Return from spread effect Total return Government bonds Corporate bonds Emerging Markets High Yield