Global demands-Local needs Widening the scope of Forest-based - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Global demands-Local needs

Widening the scope of Forest-based Climate Mitigation Options in the Tropics

Gerhard Dieterle Forest Adviser, The World Bank September 14, 2011

Rondonia Brazil 1975 (NASA Visible Earth website

Rondonia Brazil 1986 (NASA Visible Earth website

Rondonia Brazil 1992 (NASA Visible Earth website

Rondonia Brazil 2001 (NASA Visible Earth website

But how pervasive is deforestation??? Global forest cover and deforestation hotspots.

Sources of emission in selected Sources of emission in selected Carbon rich Countries Carbon rich Countries . .

Indonesia a significant emitter due to forestry and land use change

Source: PT P.E.A.C.E., 2007 compiled from IEA’s 2005 annual statistics, US EPA 2006, and Houghton 2003. If EU included, Indonesia stands 4th. Estimate subject to uncertainty.

Energy emissions lower, but growing fast

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Poverty and agricultural conversion are the main causes

• f deforestation

Deforestation causes 16 - 20% of carbon emissions, but Account for the majority of emissions in Least Developed Countries Forests could provide 33% of the GHG abatement required

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Forests play a central role in GHG Abatement in Developing Countries

Impacts of large scale farming on forest plantations, Riau, Indonesia

Source: Uryu, Y. et al. 2008 (used with permission

Erosion and water quality reduction due to deforestation and forest degadation

Slash and burn agriculture Shifting Agriculture

Forest-based climate change mitigation potential

• Substitution

not included -

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Opportunity: Landscape Restoration and Climate-Smart Agriculture

Restoration potential is high: at least 2 billion hectares (WRI 2011) There are plenty of successful examples of restored landscapes Productive landscapes benefit local livelihoods, improve food security, create jobs and income, improve environmental services Combining Agriculture + Agriculture + Forestry Growing momentum at international level:

Global Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative Meeting of African Ministers (Sept 2011) The Hague Conference Hope to include in UNFCCC agenda

Climate ‘Smart’ Agriculture

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Opportunity: Addressing Energy demand and Supply

• 95 % of total bioenergy supply from solid biomass
• 60-80 % of total energy supply in developing

countries from solid biomass

• Massive expansion of solid biomass needs in Africa

up to 2030 and beyond

• massive expansion of liquid biofuel feedstock in

developing countries could compete with energy and food supply needs for local populations

• additional land pressure from increased demand for

modern solid biomass (pellets) in Europe and North America

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Africa South Asia Middle East and North Africa Latin America and Caribbean Europe and Central Asia East Asia and Pacific Australia, Japan, New Zealand European Union (27) + 3 North America Primary energy supply in MTOE Traditional uses (wood) Traditional uses (agricultural residues) Production of heat and power Internal use in forestry and agricultural processing

2005 2030

Competition between biofuel and traditional bioenergy uses

• Total primary

energy supply from primary solid biomass by region and type in 2005 and 2030 -

Opportunity: Addressing large scale investments and “land grab” for:

biofuels commodities fiber

18 Land acquisitions: Verified area for selected countries 2000- 2010

Potential land use competition from first- generation biofuel expansion in developing countries

Increased Demand for Biofuels Likely to Lead to Considerable Conversion of Forest Land

Projected increase land for biofuels, 2030 Land Classified as Suitable for feedstocks

Source: IIASA, 2009

1.4 m ha intersections; 418 overlaps

Large Scale Investments in Mozambique

Global environmental effects

• f selected

biofuel feedstocks

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Commodity Roundtables can complement REDD+ in avoiding deforestation Standards for land conversion within major commodity roundtables “Zero Deforestation Targets”

Commo dity 2010 Global Production 2010 Sustainable Production % of Total Certifie d % Pledg e Stand ard Timber 1,567 M m3 (round wood equi.) 132.8 M m3 (round wood equi.) 8.4% FSC Pulp and Paper 380 Million Mt 200 M Mt (FSC & recycled) 5.6% FSC 47% (Rec) FSC Soy 251.7 Million Mt 0.5 M Mt 0.2% RTRS Palm Oil 47 Million Mt 3 M Mt 6.3% RSPO Cotton 24 Million Mt (cotton lint) 0.1 M Mt 0.4% BCI Sugar 164 M Mt 0% BSI Biofuels Bioethanol: 6.5 M Mt Biodiesel: 6 M Mt; Biomass (pellet production): 100 M Mt 0% RSB Tuna 4 Million Mt 0.02 M Mt 0.5% MSC Whitefis h 8 Million Mt 3.5 M Mt 43% MSC Salmon Aq. 1.2 Million Mt 0% ASC Shrimp Aq. 2.5 Million Mt 0% ASC

Beef Coco a Coffee Palm Oil Sugar Soy Cotton Shrimp White Fish

• Laws- that are consistent across countries and favour legal and sustainable
• trade. E.g.
• The US Lacey Act and the EU Due Diligence Legislation both fully ban

the import of illegal forest products,

• The EU’s Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) action

plan discourages illegal logging

• Bilateral agreements and MOUs- that directly promote legal and sustainable
• trade. E.g.
• The EU’s Voluntary Partnership Agreements with tropical wood

exporting countries aim to support improved forest governance and to ensure EU imports from these countries are legal

• Public procurement policies -that require legal and sustainably sourced
• products. Such policies should recognize credible voluntary certification

schemes

• Promotion of credible certification schemes- needs to be expanded and

scaled up.

• The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), along with multi-stakeholder

roundtables are initiatives that help companies progress toward certified production of commodities such as timber, cotton, sugar, soy and palm oil.

Opportunity: Promoting Sustainable Forest Management and Good Governance through consumer demand and the Value Chain

Promoting legal logging through forest certification

Globally Certified Area by FSC by forest type

Development of carbon stocks in

• soil
• living biomass

and

• product

substitution Scenario A, B

Multiple- benefits of common forestry practices

Opportunity: Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in the Forest Production Chainector

Transportation About 9% of emissions in FPI Limited opportunities Plantations

Huge opportunities.

Key is previous land-use. Biofuel & Cogeneration: Energy > ½ all emissions.

Large opportunities.

Conversions Limited emissions Limited opportunities Waste Management i) Post-consumer recycling. ii) Utilization of waste wood.

Large opportunities.

SFM Natural Forests

Huge opportunities.

Carbon in wood harvested & avoided deforestation.

Opportunity 6: REDD+ and Biodiversity

Risks for biodiversity REDD+ Activity Opportunities for biodiversity conservation Displacement of land use change to non-forest or low carbon ecosystems Reduced deforestation Spatial planning for biodiversity Continued extractive pressures Reduced forest degradation Slowed habitat loss and fragmentation Low tree diversity Conservation of forest carbon stocks Recovery of forest structure Non-native or non-local species Sustainable management of forest Recovery of forest composition Afforestation of valuable non-forest ecosystems or natural forests Enhancement of forest carbon stocks Increased forest area Increased forest connectivity

Typical

Depends strongly on approach

• Thank You!

www.worldbank.org/forests