Glo$%l Trend, in .le%n /ner0y %nd Tr%n,2ort%tion 4%t5r0y67/8/ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Glo$%l Trend, in .le%n /ner0y %nd Tr%n,2ort%tion 4%t5r0y67/8/ /ner0y 9ro,2e:ti;e, <%drid= >? <%r:h AB>9 Michael Liebreich Founder and CEO Liebreich Associates

.le%n ener0y neD, EloD LIEBREICH Associates 0o1rce: Independent; Cleantechnica, <ilprice.com, B1sinessgreen; FT; Bloomberg; BBC > 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

/F neD, EloD LIEBREICH Associates 0o1rce: Telegraph; <ilprice; Bloomberg; Economist; A1tocar; The C1ardian A 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

8ol%r %nd Dind %re not t%Hin0 o;er LIEBREICH Associates the Dorld The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking. Faclav 0mil Histing1ished IroJessor Emerit1s in the Fac1lty oJ Environment at the Lniversity oJ Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada Image: Wikimedia Commons G 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Wind %nd ,ol%r %re not t%Hin0 o;er LIEBREICH Associates the Dorld Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8P of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4P of global energy BNørn Lomborg visiting proJessor at the Copenhagen B1siness 0chool Iresident oJ the Copenhagen Consens1s Center 4 Febr1ary QRST Image: Lomborg.com ? 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World LIEBREICH Associates 1/3 of electricity 1/3 of vehicles will be Economy will be 1/3 more electric energy productive will be wind and solar Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica J 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World LIEBREICH Associates 1/3 of electricity 1/3 of vehicles will be Economy will be 1/3 more electric energy productive will be wind and solar Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica 6 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Wind %nd ,ol%r ex2erien:e :5r;e, LIEBREICH Associates Wind – le%rnin0 r%te >JR 8ol%r – le%rnin0 r%te A?-A9R €/MWh (real 2018) $/W (real 2018) 1,000 100 1976 1985 10 2003 2008 100 1 2018 2018 10 0.1 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1 100 10,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Note: LC<E in real QRSZ 0o1rce: BNEF 8 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

8ol%r ,:%le-52 ABBJ – AB>8 LIEBREICH Associates 200T 2018 Images: Nissan; Enel Fillan1eva solar plant 9 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

/;ol5tion oE Dind t5r$ine hei0ht, %nd LIEBREICH Associates o5t25t 13U1T MW GBBL 9 MW ABBL S MW 4 MW 2 MW >BBL 1.2 MW 0.T MW 1U12kW >9 th . AB>J >99B >99J ABBB ABBJ ABAJ AB>B 0o1rces: Fario1s; Bloomberg New Energy Finance >B 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, LIEBREICH Associates AB>> 8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind UEE,hore Dind Country: Spain Country: YSA Country: Y[ Bidder: Various Bidder: Various Bidder: SSE Signed: 2010 Signed: 2010 Signed: 2009 Construction: 2012 Construction: 2012 Construction: 2011 T8V >7.B :6HWh T8V >7.B :6HWh T8V 8.B :6HWh Note: images are ill1strative only 0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers >> 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, LIEBREICH Associates AB>J 8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind UEE,hore Dind Country: YAE Country: YSA Country: Horns Rev, aenmark Bidder: AQWA Bidder: Various Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: January 201T Signed: 201T Signed: Feb 201T Construction: 201S Construction: 2016 Construction: 201S T8V J.8 :6HWh T8V >A.> :6HWh T8V ?.J :6HWh Note: images are ill1strative only 0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers >A 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, LIEBREICH Associates AB>8 8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind UEE,hore Dind Country: Mexico Country: Mexico Country: aenmark Bidder: Enel Bidder: Neoen Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: Nov 201S Signed: Nov 201S Signed: 2016 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2022 T8V >.97 :6HWh T8V J.G :6HWh T8V >.77 :6HWh Note: images are ill1strative only 0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers >G 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

R/ 2ro2ortion oE 2oDer 0ener%tion LIEBREICH Associates ABB7 – AB>7 UK China Germany Canada 66% 61% 33% 36% 27% 15% 14% 5% Japan 17% 9% Spain US Italy 34% 19% Australia 52% 17% 8% 16% Brazil 88% 81% India 20% 8% Australia 19% 18% Wind & solar Other renewables 20% 8% Note: Calc1lated as CWh renewable prod1ction \ CWh cons1mption 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BI >? 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

7/Y ,ol%r :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion LIEBREICH Associates Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e ,ol%r in,t%ll%tion, Ynn5%l ,ol%r %ddition, GW GW per year 2,000 3,000 120 1,500 2,000 80 1,000 500 1,000 40 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Note: QRRQ-QRR9 ReJerence, QRSR-QRST New Iolicies 0cenario 0o1rce: IEA World Energy <1tlook >J 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

/7Y ,ol%r :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion LIEBREICH Associates Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e ,ol%r in,t%ll%tion, Ynn5%l ,ol%r %ddition, GW GW per year 3,000 120 2,000 2,000 1,500 80 1,000 1,000 40 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Historical 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 Note: ReJerence scenario 0o1rce: EIA International Energy <1tlook >6 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

7/Y Dind :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion LIEBREICH Associates Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e Dind in,t%ll%tion, Ynn5%l Dind %ddition, GW GW per year 2,000 2,000 80 80 1,500 1,500 60 60 1,000 1,000 40 40 500 500 20 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Note: QRRQ-QRR9 ReJerence, QRSR-QRST New Iolicies 0cenario 0o1rce: IEA World Energy <1tlook >7 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Trillion cubic feet 2004 8 2005 6 2006 2007 4 2008 2009 2 2010 2012 0 2013 T8 9roZe:ted net iL2ort, oE [4G LIEBREICH 2014 -2 Associates >997-ABGB 2015 2016 -4 2017 Trillion cubic feet Trillion cubic feet -6 Actual 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004 8 8 2005 2006 6 6 Importer 2007 4 4 2008 2009 2 2 2010 2012 0 0 2013 Exporter 2014 -2 -2 2015 2016 -4 -4 2017 2018 -6 -6 Actual 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 0o1rce: EIA AE<; BNEF >8 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

TWh 950 2008 2009 2010 900 9J< net ener0y Eore:%,t, LIEBREICH 2011 2012 2013 Associates 850 2014 2015 2016 800 2017 2018 Historical 8 750 TWh TWh 700 Historical 9 Historical 10 Historical 11 950 950 2008 650 Historical 12 Historical 13 Historical 14 900 900 2009 600 2010 850 Historical 15 Historical 850 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2011 800 800 2012 2013 750 750 2014 700 2015 700 2016 650 650 2017 600 2018 600 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Note: Excl1des AT0I, HE<a and EaIC 0o1rce: I_M >9 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich

Y5,tr%li%n ele:tri:ity deL%nd LIEBREICH Associates TWh TWh 300 300 2010 Historical 2011 2010 250 250 2011 2012 200 200 2012 2013 2013 2014 150 150 2015 2014 100 100 2015 2016 2017 2016 50 50 2017 Historical 0 0 FY06 FY06 FY08 FY08 FY10 FY10 FY12 FY12 FY14 FY14 FY16 FY16 FY18 FY18 FY20 FY20 FY22 FY22 FY24 FY24 0o1rce: AEM< AB 14 March 2019 Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich