Glo$%l Trend, in .le%n /ner0y %nd Tr%n,2ort%tion 4%t5r0y67/8/ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Glo$%l Trend, in .le%n /ner0y %nd Tr%n,2ort%tion

4%t5r0y67/8/ /ner0y 9ro,2e:ti;e, <%drid= >? <%r:h AB>9

Michael Liebreich Founder and CEO Liebreich Associates

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Independent; Cleantechnica, <ilprice.com, B1sinessgreen; FT; Bloomberg; BBC

.le%n ener0y neD, EloD

A

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Telegraph; <ilprice; Bloomberg; Economist; A1tocar; The C1ardian

/F neD, EloD

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Wikimedia Commons

8ol%r %nd Dind %re not t%Hin0 o;er the Dorld The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking.

Faclav 0mil Histing1ished IroJessor Emerit1s in the Fac1lty oJ Environment at the Lniversity oJ Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Lomborg.com

Wind %nd ,ol%r %re not t%Hin0 o;er the Dorld Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8P of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4P of global energy

BNørn Lomborg visiting proJessor at the Copenhagen B1siness 0chool Iresident oJ the Copenhagen Consens1s Center 4 Febr1ary QRST

J

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World

1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of vehicles will be electric Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

6

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of vehicles will be electric Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

8

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

10 100 1,000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) €/MWh (real 2018) 2008 2018 1985 0.1 1 10 100 1 100 10,000 1,000,000 $/W (real 2018) 2003 1976 Cumulative capacity (MW) 2018

0o1rce: BNEF Note: LC<E in real QRSZ

Wind – le%rnin0 r%te >JR 8ol%r – le%rnin0 r%te A?-A9R

Wind %nd ,ol%r ex2erien:e :5r;e,

9

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

8ol%r ,:%le-52 ABBJ – AB>8

Images: Nissan; Enel Fillan1eva solar plant

200T 2018

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

/;ol5tion oE Dind t5r$ine hei0ht, %nd

• 5t25t

ABBB >99J >99B >9th . GBBL ABBL >BBL

1U12kW 0.T MW 1.2 MW 2 MW

ABBJ

4 MW

AB>B

S MW

AB>J

9 MW

ABAJ

13U1T MW

0o1rces: Fario1s; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, AB>>

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: YSA Various 2010 2012

8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind UEE,hore Dind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Spain Various 2010 2012 Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Y[ SSE 2009 2011

T8V >7.B :6HWh T8V 8.B :6HWh T8V >7.B :6HWh

0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers Note: images are ill1strative only

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, AB>J

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: YSA Various 201T 2016

8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind UEE,hore Dind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: YAE AQWA January 201T 201S Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Horns Rev, aenmark Vattenfall Feb 201T 201S

T8V >A.> :6HWh T8V ?.J :6HWh T8V J.8 :6HWh

0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers Note: images are ill1strative only

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Tn,5$,idi,ed :le%n ener0y Dorld re:ord, AB>8

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Neoen Nov 201S 2019

8ol%r 9F Un,hore Dind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Enel Nov 201S 2018

UEE,hore Dind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: aenmark Vattenfall 2016 2022

T8V J.G :6HWh T8V >.77 :6HWh T8V >.97 :6HWh

0o1rce: Fario1s man1Jact1rers and proNect developers Note: images are ill1strative only

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BI Note: Calc1lated as CWh renewable prod1ction \ CWh cons1mption

R/ 2ro2ortion oE 2oDer 0ener%tion ABB7 – AB>7

8% 17%

US

61% 66%

Canada

88% 81%

Brazil

16% 52%

Italy

14% 36%

Germany

18% 19%

India

15% 27%

China

9% 17%

Japan

8% 20%

Australia 8% 20%

Australia

Wind & solar Other renewables

19% 34%

Spain

5% 33%

UK

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: IEA World Energy <1tlook Note: QRRQ-QRR9 ReJerence, QRSR-QRST New Iolicies 0cenario

Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e ,ol%r in,t%ll%tion,

7/Y ,ol%r :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion

GW 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GW per year

Ynn5%l ,ol%r %ddition,

1,000 2,000 3,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 40 80 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: EIA International Energy <1tlook Note: ReJerence scenario

Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e ,ol%r in,t%ll%tion,

/7Y ,ol%r :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion

GW GW per year

Ynn5%l ,ol%r %ddition,

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Historical 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 40 80 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1,000 2,000 3,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0o1rce: IEA World Energy <1tlook Note: QRRQ-QRR9 ReJerence, QRSR-QRST New Iolicies 0cenario

Glo$%l :5L5l%ti;e Dind in,t%ll%tion,

7/Y Dind :%2%:ity Eore:%,t e;ol5tion

GW 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GW per year

Ynn5%l Dind %ddition,

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: EIA AE<; BNEF

T8 9roZe:ted net iL2ort, oE [4G >997-ABGB

• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Trillion cubic feet

• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Trillion cubic feet 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual

• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Trillion cubic feet 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual

Importer Exporter

2018

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: I_M

9J< net ener0y Eore:%,t,

Note: Excl1des AT0I, HE<a and EaIC 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 TWh 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 TWh 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 TWh 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Historical 8 Historical 9 Historical 10 Historical 11 Historical 12 Historical 13 Historical 14 Historical 15 Historical

AB

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: AEM<

Y5,tr%li%n ele:tri:ity deL%nd

50 100 150 200 250 300 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 TWh 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Historical 50 100 150 200 250 300 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 TWh Historical 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Mtce IEA 2013 IEA 2014 IEA 2015 IEA 2016 IEA 2017 IEA 2018 BNEF 2016 BNEF 2017 BNEF 2018 Historical

0o1rce: IEA; BI; Liebreich Associates

Glo$%l :o%l deL%nd Eore:%,t,

Note: Lsing IEA NI0 scenarios

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Mtce Historical IEA 2013 IEA 2014 IEA 2015 IEA 2016 IEA 2017 IEA 2018 BNEF 2016 BNEF 2017 BNEF 2018 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Mtce Historical IEA 2013 IEA 2014 IEA 2015 IEA 2016 IEA 2017 IEA 2018 BNEF 2016 BNEF 2017 BNEF 2018

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Twitter

9ri:e oE reneD%$le ener0y in 7ndi% The cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal in this country.

Iiy1sh Coyal Minister oJ 0tate Jor Iower, Coal, New & Renewable Energy and Mines, India

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: IEA

Glo$%l in;e,tLent in :o%l ,522ly ABBB – AB>7

50 100 150 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 $ bn (nominal)

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Liebreich Associates; Coalswarm

4et neD :o%l 0ener%tion :%2%:ity ABB6 – AB>8

• 100
• 50

50 100 2006 2010 2015 2018 GW RoW India China Retirements Net additions

AJ

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Bloomberg

Y5,tr%li%

0cott Morrison Irime Minister oJ A1stralia

This is coal U don't be afraid, don't be scared!

A6

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Mark Lyons\Cetty Images

Tr5L2 di0, :o%l

July 201S Everybody was saying, well, you won’t get any mining jobs. We picked up 4T,000 mining jobs

Honald Tr1mp L0 Iresident

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

G%, 2l%y, %n iL2ort%nt role= $5t in:re%,in0ly Eor Elexi$ility only

• 120
• 80
• 40

40 80 120 2017-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 China India Rest of APAC Americas Europe ME & Africa ROW

• 1,200
• 800
• 400

400 800 1,200 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 Δ generation (TWh) Coal Gas

7n:reLent%l :h%n0e in 0%, :on,5L2tion 7n:reLent%l :h%n0e in 0ener%tion

A9

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MtCO2 Improved electricity productivity New non-fossil generation Coal-to-gas switching CO2 MtCO2 Historical Pro rata to GDP growth 0o1rce: EIA; Liebreich Associates; FREH

T8 ele:tri:ity .UA eLi,,ion, >99B – AB>7

Note: QRSZ Jig1res are estimates; new non-Jossil generation incl1des n1clear 1prates 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MtCO2 Coal-to-gas switching New non-fossil generation Improved electricity productivity Historical Pro rata to GDP growth 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MtCO2 Coal-to-gas switching New non-fossil generation Improved electricity productivity Historical Pro rata to GDP growth

2017

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

7ndi% .hin% T.8.

45:le%r ;,. non-hydro reneD%$le 0ener%tion in ,ele:ted :o5ntrie, >99B – AB>7

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 % electricity generation Nuclear Non-hydro renewables

0o1rce: BI; Liebreich Associates

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 % electricity generation 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 % electricity generation 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 % electricity generation

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Lomborg.com

Wind %nd ,ol%r %re not t%Hin0 o;er the Dorld Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8P of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4P of global energy

BNørn Lomborg visiting proJessor at the Copenhagen B1siness 0chool Iresident oJ the Copenhagen Consens1s Center 4 Febr1ary QRST

GG

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Lawrence Livermore National Lab

8%nHey Eor the T.8. in AB>6

68R oE 2riL%ry ener0y i, D%,ted] ]%lLo,t %ll

• E it EroL

:o%l= oil= 0%, %nd n5:le%r

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

200 400 600 800 Mtoe 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 TWh

9riL%ry ener0y /le:tri:ity

9riL%ry ener0y= Ein%l :on,5L2tion %nd ele:tri:ity 0ener%tion

67R D%,te he%t

Nuclear Hydro Nuclear Hydro 0o1rce: IEA WE<QRST; Liebreich Associates

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

!"#$ !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ %#& %#& %#& %#& '($ '($ )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 3(45 3(45 3(45 6"$#- 6"$#- 78 978 :78 ;78 <78 =778 >2?097=@0)A6 A-(B#-C024,-DC >2?0)A6097=@ 2$,+.-(+(.C >2?0)A6097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C E)2F0)2'097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C

0o1rce: BNEF NE< QRST; IEA WE< QRST; Liebreich Associates

Wind %nd ,ol%r :ontri$5tion to 0lo$%l 2oDer 0ener%tion

By 2040 20 to 39P of power globally will be from variable sources

G9R 6R AAR >R

!"#$ !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ %#& %#& %#& %#& '($ '($ )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 3(45 3(45 3(45 6"$#- 6"$#- 78 978 :78 ;78 <78 =778 >2?097=@0)A6 A-(B#-C024,-DC >2?0)A6097=@ 2$,+.-(+(.C >2?0)A6097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C E)2F0)2'097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ %#& %#& %#& %#& '($ '($ )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 3(45 3(45 3(45 6"$#- 6"$#- 78 978 :78 ;78 <78 =778 >2?097=@0)A6 A-(B#-C024,-DC >2?0)A6097=@ 2$,+.-(+(.C >2?0)A6097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C E)2F0)2'097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ !"#$ %#& %#& %#& %#& '($ '($ )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- )*+$,#- './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 './,-012 3(45 3(45 3(45 6"$#- 6"$#- 78 978 :78 ;78 <78 =778 >2?097=@0)A6 A-(B#-C024,-DC >2?0)A6097=@ 2$,+.-(+(.C >2?0)A6097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C E)2F0)2'097:7 2$,+.-(+(.C

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: CAI0< <A0I0; CILC; L0 Iower; CE0A; BNEF

/;ol;in0 ,tr5:t5re oE 2oDer ,522ly

California

^ir,t DeeH oE <%y AB>A _%:t5%l` ^ir,t DeeH oE <%y AB>7 _%:t5%l`

! " # $ % &! &" &# ! &! "! '! #! (! $! )! %! & "

*+,-./01.23

452,- 6178 93./:5,8 ;3<,78

^ir,t DeeH oE <%y ABGB _Lodelled`

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

/;ol;in0 ,tr5:t5re oE 2oDer ,522ly

Northern Europe

9%,t – ,5LLer 9%,t – Dinter

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

.5rrent – ,5LLer .5rrent – Dinter

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

^5t5re – ,5LLer ^5t5re – Dinter

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

• 30.0
• 10.0

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

B%l%n:in0 the 0rid

• 77. .U4T74TUT8

BY[Y4.74G

• 777. .U4TRU[[74G

^R/QT/4.c

• 7. 9[Y4474G ^UR

/dTR/</8

Months to weeks aays to hours Minutes to seconds

9oDer to 0%, 95L2ed ,tor%0e YLLoni% fA ^lyDheel, .oL2re,,ed %ir BioL%,,6$io 0%, /le:tri: ;ehi:le, eeL%nd re,2on,e

ei0iti,%tion

Gr%;ity ,y,teL, BioE5el B%tterie, ^loD $%tterie, 8ol%r .89 7nter:onne:tor, 8L%rt he%tin0 g :oolin0 8e%,on%l therL%l ,tor%0e

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of vehicles will be electric Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Tesla; Hetroit Electric, co1rtesy oJ EFA0H

The E5t5re oE tr%n,2ort%tion – /F,

Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they're within reach of the average family. The Washington Iost, S9Sc

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

100 200 300 400 500 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 thousand sold 100 200 300 400 500 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 20122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 thousand sold 100 200 300 400 500 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2012 20132014 2015 2016 2017 2018 thousand sold

Y9Y. /</Y Y</R

Q5%rterly /F ,%le, $y re0ion Q> AB>A – Q? AB>8

.YGR 86R .YGR 6AR .YGR J?R

0o1rce: BNEF

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF EF< QRST

Ynn5%l 0lo$%l li0ht d5ty ;ehi:le ,%le, Glo$%l li0ht d5ty ;ehi:le Eleet

B4/^ ele:tri: ;ehi:le o5tlooH to AB?B

3% 28% 55%

30 60 90 120 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 million vehicles

1% 9% 33%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 million vehicles on road

3% 28% 55%

30 60 90 120 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 million vehicles PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of sales

1% 9% 33%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 million vehicles on road PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of fleet

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rces: BNEF; BI; Exxon Mobil; <IEC; IEA

Glo$%l /F Eleet Eore:%,t, $y ;%rio5,

• r0%ni,%tion, – AB>8

Notes: IEA val1es are base case. ExxonMobil and IEA Jorecasts prior to QRST incl1de BEFs, IHEFs and FCFs; all other Jorecasts incl1de N1st BEFs and IHEFs.

200 400 600 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Million EVs BNEF – 2016 BP – 2016 BP – 2017 BP – 2018 ExxonMobil – 2016 ExxonMobil – 2017 ExxonMobil – 2018 OPEC – 2016 OPEC – 2017 OPEC – 2018 IEA – 2016 IEA – 2017 BNEF – 2017 BNEF – 2018 200 400 600 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Million EVs BNEF BP OPEC IEA ExxonMobil 2016 2017

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

10 100 1,000 10,000 100 10,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) €/MWh (real 2018) 2018 1985

8ol%r – le%rnin0 r%te A8.JR Wind – le%rnin0 r%te >JR B%tterie, – le%rnin0 r%te ABR

/x2erien:e :5r;e,

0o1rce: BNEF

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 1,000 1,000,000 $/W (real 2018) 1976 Cumulative capacity (MW) 2018

10 100 1,000 10,000 1 1,000 1,000,000 Cumulative production (MWh) $/MWh (real 2018)

2010 2018

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF EF< QRST

T8 Ledi5L B/F 2ri:e $re%HdoDn= ,h%re oE $%ttery :o,t, %nd 7./ 2ri:e

!"# $%# $&# '%# '!# '&# &(# &)# * + &* &+ '* '+ $* $+ !* !+ +* '*&) '*&( '*'* '*'' '*'! '*') '*'( '*$* '*&(,-,./01234567, 84//9:; <1=9:/:4>5 ?90>@A9 BCD '&# '*')

Ynsubsidised sticker price crossover with ICEs 202T g 2030

$%# '*&(

,h%re oE $%ttery :o,t, %nd 7./ 2ri:e

Ynsubsidised TCO crossover with ICEs 201S g 2024

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

8h%n0h%i= .hin%

Image: Michael Liebreich

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

eelhi= 7ndi%

Image: Newsclick India

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

9%ri,= ^r%n:e

Image: H€NNI$\Creative Commons

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

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Image: HHRCA

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

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Image: MaNadahonda; Il1me Labs

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Flickr

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: _assen Todorov\National Ceographic

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

! "!#!!! $!!#!!! $"!#!!! %&'()*+,-&(*. /)-0(()1*2'1)()-& +&31&-&'*454678/()'' 9:;0:0<0*=.>! ?):@&*?,A&3 60:1,(:*B)A0@)<,3 6&CD'*6. %,E,<)*6):-*/3D0'&3 F&G01(&'*',(- ! "!#!!! $!!#!!! $"!#!!! %&'()*+,-&(*. +&/0&-&'*121()'' +&/0&-&'*34156*1()'' 5&78'*36 9+:*.*6&/;&' 9+:*"*6&/;&' <=>;=;?;*@"! A8-;*AB 9+:*B*6&/;&' C&D;0(&'*',(- ! "!#!!! $!!#!!! $"!#!!! %&'()*+,-&(*. +&/0&-&'*.12()'' 3&45'*3. 6+7*8*.&/9&' :,/'0;&*:)<)=&/) 6+7*>*.&/9&' ?&<&'9'*?@! A)B5)/*CA D5-9*DE F&;90(&'*',(-

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0o1rce: Cleantechnica; Liebreich Associates; B1siness Insider

JJ

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

ey,on ele:tri: :%r 2rototy2ej

Image: Cg; Royal College oJ Art

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF EF< QRST

95$li: /F :h%r0in0 2oint, in,t%lled 0lo$%lly ABB8 – AB>8

200 400 600 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Thousand outlets Others Japan U.S. Europe China

.YGR 6AR

J7

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr

/5ro2e T.8. .hin%

7L2%:t oE /F, on 2oDer deL%nd

200 400 600 800 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs 200 400 600 800 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs 200 400 600 800 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + EV 200 400 600 800 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + EV 200 400 600 800 2015 2030 2040 2050 TWh/yr EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs

Note: EF demand incl1des light d1ty vehicles only; E1rope and L0 EFs are S9% oJ the Jleet by QR4R; Chinese EFs are QT% oJ LHF Jleet by QR4R Source: BNEF NEO 2018; Liebreich Associates

J8

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Fario1s, BNEF

82ot 2ri:e oE ,ol%r-0r%de ,ili:on= ye%r ABBB – ^e$r5%ry AB>8

Notes: Ann1al data QRRR-RZ Jrom vario1s ind1stry so1rces. Hata November QRRZ–May QRR9 based on a 3-point moving average oJ act1al spot deals. Consistent monthly data collection 1sing the 0pot Irice Index began in May QRR9.

100 200 300 400 500 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 $/kg

J9

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Antaike InJormation Hevelopment Co., Bloomberg; Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; BNEF

.hin% 8h%n0h%i .o$%lt Y,i% [ithi5L fydroxide

.o$%lt %nd lithi5L 2ri:e,

Note: Hata 1p to Feb QRS9

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $/metric ton 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $/metric ton

6B

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

B%ttery ele:tri: ;ehi:le, ^5el :ell ;ehi:le,

Glo$%l B/F ;,. ^.F ,%le,

250 500 750 1,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Thousand units 250 500 750 1000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Thousand units

6>

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Tesla; Toyota; 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates

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fydro0en E5el :ell ;, $%ttery ;ehi:le,

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Te,l% <odel G

V?9=BBB

6A

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Tesla; Toyota; 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates

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fydro0en E5el :ell ;, $%ttery ;ehi:le,

Toyot% <ir%i

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Te,l% <odel G

V?9=BBB

6G

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Tesla; Toyota; 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates

Te,l% <odel G

fydro0en E5el :ell ;, $%ttery ;ehi:le,

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.5r$ Dei0htK >=7GB H0 >=8JB H0 R%n0eK G>B Lile, G>A Lile, ReE5el tiLe= LotorD%yK JB Lin5te, – ABB Lile, >B Lin5te, – GBB Lile, eri;e tr%in Lo;in0 2%rt,K >7 k ABB Wind-to-Dheel eEEi:ien:yK k 6>R l GA R 9ri:eK V?9=BBB VJ7=JBB ReE5el tiLe= hoLeK > Lin5te 46Y

Te,l% <odel G

V?9=BBB

6?

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Tesla; Toyota; 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates

Te,l% <odel G

fydro0en E5el :ell ;, $%ttery ;ehi:le,

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.5r$ Dei0htK >=7GB H0 >=8JB H0 R%n0eK G>B Lile, G>A Lile, ReE5el tiLe= LotorD%yK JB Lin5te, – ABB Lile, >B Lin5te, – GBB Lile, eri;e tr%in Lo;in0 2%rt,K >7 k ABB Wind-to-Dheel eEEi:ien:yK k 6>R l GA R 9ri:eK V?9=BBB VJ7=JBB ReE5el tiLe= hoLeK > Lin5te 46Y

Te,l% <odel G

V?9=BBB

6J

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Tesla; Toyota; 0o1rce: Liebreich Associates

Te,l% <odel G

fydro0en E5el :ell ;, $%ttery ;ehi:le,

Toyot% <ir%i

.5r$ Dei0htK >=7GB H0 >=8JB H0 R%n0eK G>B Lile, G>A Lile, ReE5el tiLe= LotorD%yK JB Lin5te, – ABB Lile, >B Lin5te, – GBB Lile, eri;e tr%in Lo;in0 2%rt,K >7 k ABB Wind-to-Dheel eEEi:ien:yK k 6>R l GA R 9ri:eK V?9=BBB VJ7=JBB ReE5el tiLe= hoLeK > Lin5te 46Y

Te,l% <odel G

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66

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri: – $5,e,

Images: Thomas _o1ley; BjH; Iroterra

67

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri: – :oLLer:i%l ;ehi:le,

Images: Tesla; 0tarship Technologies; Ehang; k1n1m; Haimler; Hpost; LI0\Arrival Images: Tesla; 0tarship

68

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri: – A g G Dheeler,

Images: Toyota; <mastar ; aalkhoJJ; _etson; Harley Havidson

69

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: Ion EX1ipment

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri:

7B

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: AlJ aare Aesobo; aongsberg; Enercon

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri: – ,hi2,

7>

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

4ot Z5,t :%r, 0oin0 ele:tri:

Images: Iipistrel; Ehang; Lili1m; Airb1s; k1n1m; NA0A

7A

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF; Liebreich Associates

.5L5l%ti;e oil di,2l%:eLent $y ele:tri: ;ehi:le,

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mbpd Diesel (light vehicles) Gasoline (light vehicles) Diesel (buses) Gasoline (2 & 3 wheelers)

7G

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

/5ro2e%n oil L%Zor, 2oDer ,e:tor Lo;e,= AB>> – AB>8

/F :h%r0in0 Gener%tion

0o1rce: BNEF; Companies

Tr%din0 %nd ret%ilin0 Te:hnolo0y

7?

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of vehicles will be electric Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

7J

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: Liebreich Associates; IEA

World Ge9= Ein%l ener0y %nd ener0y inten,ity $y AB?B

Note: Lsing IEA New Iolicies 0cenario

! "! #!! #"! $!! $"! %&' ()*+,-.*./01 ()*+,-.*./012%&' 3*4.5.4-6$!#7-8-#!!9 $!#7 $!:! ! "! #!! #"! $!! $"! %&' ()*+,-.*./01 ()*+,-.*./012%&' 3*4.5.4-6$!#7-8-#!!9 $!#7 $!:! ! "! #!! #"! $!! $"! %&' ()*+,-.*./01 ()*+,-.*./012%&' 3*4.5.4-6$!#7-8-#!!9 $!#7 $!:!

The Dorld 5,e, % third le,, ener0y 2er 5nit oE Ge9 $y AB?B

76

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

AB?BK Wel:oLe to the Three-Third World

1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of vehicles will be electric Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

77

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh

T.h. eenL%rH GerL%ny 82%in T.8. _%;er%0e` Y5,tr%li%

Re,identi%l ele:tri:ity 2ri:e, $y :o,t ,e0Lent

0o1rce: EIA; AEMC; E1rostat; BNEF; Liebreich Associates Note: A1stralian data excl1des the carbon price repealed in QRS4. EL data only available 1ntil HS QRST. <ther incl1des taxes, levies and FiTs.

100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh 100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh 100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh 100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh 100 200 300 400 2009 2018 €/MWh Uther 4etDorH :o,t, /le:tri:ity ,522ly

78

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

/;ol;in0 ,tr5:t5re oE 2oDer ,522ly

Germany

9%,t – ,5LLer 9%,t – Dinter

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

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• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

^5t5re – ,5LLer ^5t5re – Dinter

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

• 30.0
• 10.0

79

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

^5t5re 2oDer ,522ly

• 30.0
• 10.0

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

Winter 85LLer

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

[oD :%r$on 0ener%tion

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

^lexi$le 0ener%tion

= = + +

Tot%l 0ener%tion

8B

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

^5t5re 2oDer ,522ly

• 30.0
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• 40
• 20

• 40
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Winter 85LLer

• 40
• 20

• 40
• 20

[oD :%r$on 0ener%tion

• 40
• 20

• 40
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^lexi$le 0ener%tion

= = + +

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8>

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF

The E5t5re oE 2oDer L%rHet re05l%tion

.%2%:ity L%rHet 7nter:onne:tion, .5rt%ilLent

U2tion BK eeL%nd-[ed

78)4,90:;< =0,>6*9?@)116A BCD)481:E/48,6AF0*8

U2tion YK .%2%:ity L%rHet,

• .entr%l 2l%nnin0 litep
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8A

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

0o1rce: BNEF; Liebreich Associates

ei0iti,%tion oE inEr%,tr5:t5re

T$iq5ito5, YrtiEi:i%l intelli0en:e %nd L%:hine le%rnin0 T$iq5ito5, 2ro:e,,in0 %nd ,tor%0e _:lo5d to netDorH ed0e` T$iq5ito5, :hi2, %nd ,en,or, T$iq5ito5, :oLL5ni:%tion, T$iq5ito5, Blo:H:h%in _di,tri$5ted led0er, %nd ,L%rt :ontr%:t,`

8G

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Image: LNFCCC

9%ri, The world must achieve greenhouse gas neutrality some time in the second half of the century

Iaris Agreement Hecember QRSc

8?

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

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0o1rce: Liebreich Associates; <FF A0; BI; IEA Note: jTH r1ns 1p to 0ep QRST

^roL l JR to ?BR ;ehi:le, Dith 2l50,K 6 ye%r, ^roL l JR to ?BR [/e indoor,K 6 ye%r, ^roL ?BR to rJR 0ener%tionK 6 ye%r,

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14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

!" #!" $!" %!" &!" '((! #!!! #!'! #!#! #!)! #!$! #!*!

0o1rce: BNEF NE< QRST; IEA WE< QRSZ; Liebreich Associates

/Li,,ion, inten,ity oE 2oDer 0ener%tion /le:tri:ity ,h%re in Ein%l ener0y

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86

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons

Beyond the Three-Third World

Shipping/air/freight Chemicals Energy access Heat Agriculture Manufacturing

87

14 March 2019

LIEBREICH Associates

@mliebreich Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019

michael@liebreichassociates.com www.liebreich.com @mliebreich

Thanks!