Glencore Interim Results 2012 21 August 2012 Ivan Glasenberg Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Glencore Interim Results 2012 21 August 2012 Ivan Glasenberg Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Glencore Interim Results 2012 21 August 2012 Ivan Glasenberg Chief Executive Officer I 2 H1 2012 Highlights Financial results supported by strong marketing performance Adjusted EBIT $2.5bn, 24% down H1 2012 vs. H1 2011, but up 20%


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Glencore Interim Results 2012

21 August 2012

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

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H1 2012 Highlights

Financial results supported by strong marketing performance Adjusted EBIT $2.5bn, 24% down H1 2012 vs. H1 2011, but up 20% sequentially – Annualised H1 2012 closely tracking FY 2011 result – Marketing EBIT $1.12bn, down 11% on H1 2011. Energy results were below the relatively

strong prior year period, offsetting the stronger performances in metals and agriculture

– Industrial EBIT down 32% to $1.4bn on H1 2011 due to materially lower average metals

  • prices. Sequentially flat EBIT (including associates), but for consolidated operations up some

30% due to strong volume growth, particularly oil

Strong cash flow generation, with funds from operations of $1.9bn, and an Adjusted EBITDA

interest cover in excess of 7.0x

Abundant liquidity with $9.0bn of committed headroom and no material refinancings in the next

12 months

Sector leading growth pipeline remains overall on time and on budget Interim dividend of 5.4 cents per share, an 8% increase over H1 2011 – Reflects confidence in our commodity diversification, the robustness of Marketing, visibility on

  • ur brownfield assets ramp-up and the Group’s strong balance sheet

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I 633 609 688 552 145 350 92 (100) 114 (26) 6 (37) (200) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012

 Solid underlying profitability in marketing against a challenging

economic backdrop Metals and Minerals

 Strong performance driven by increased volumes and robust

premia for physical delivery of key metals

 Improved profitability, 9% year-on-year and 13% sequentially

Energy

 Fewer arbitrage opportunities in energy compared to H1 2011

as a result of reduced volatility in oil and coal markets and weaker freight environment

 Strongly improved profitability vs. H2 2011

Agricultural Products

 Grain and oilseed volumes maintained growth trend in H1

2012, with oilseed volumes, in particular, up substantially versus H1 2011

 Improved market fundamentals in key commodities since May  Profitability improved 24% year-on-year and reversion to profit

sequentially, with cotton issues now firmly behind us.

H1 Financial Performance – Marketing Activities

Agriculture Metals and Minerals Energy Corporate

Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011

(10.9%)

1,251 1,115 660

68.9%

(US$ m) 4

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950 407 399 211 164 345 (17) (22) (11) 660 886 908 (200) 500 1,200 1,900 2,600 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 1,345 777 832 305 266 528 13 10 21 660 908 886 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012

H1 Financial Performance – Industrial Activities

 Core growth projects continue to deliver and remain on track

and within budget Metals and Minerals

 EBIT reduction compared to 2011 primarily driven by the

negative impact of sovereign and macroeconomic concerns

  • n metal prices

 Production performance ahead of schedule at Mutanda, offset

by some ramp-up delays at Katanga and Kazzinc

 Flat sequential performance

Energy

 Substantially improved performance with EBIT up 64% on

2011 driven by first full half year of production from the Aseng

  • il field and to a lesser extent, strong coal volume growth

Agricultural Products

 Results affected by sugar cane harvest delays

Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011

(US$ m)

(32.1%)

2,052 1,393

Agriculture Metals and Minerals Energy Corporate (Including Xstrata)

1,435

(2.9%)

Adjusted EBITDA H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011

(US$ m) 2,571 2,041 1,939

(20.6%) 5.3%

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H1 Operating Performance – Industrial Activities

Metals & Minerals

 Primarily due to lower metal prices, Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $832m, down 38% compared to H1

2011, but up 7% from H2 2011

 Growth strategy to establish high quality, large scale, long life and low cost assets remains on track with

significant future planned growth in own source copper volumes and gold Production from own sources

 Zinc: down 12% to 258kt  Copper: flat at 170kt  Gold: down 4% to 365ktoz (1)

Energy Products

 Substantially improved performance during H1 2012 on the back of the oil E&P operations with 11.0m bbls

produced from Aseng during the period

 Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2012 was $528m, up 73% compared to $305m in H1 2011  Prodeco production up 12% to 7.9mt but lower realised coal prices impacted profitability  Additional contribution from South African coal following the Optimum, Umcebo and Shanduka Coal

transactions

Agricultural Products

 Total production and processing up 9% to 3.0mt  Significant headway with Viterra approvals; only MOFCOM outstanding  Commenced operations at two softseed crushing plants at Usti, Czech Republic and Bodaczow, Poland which

were acquired in late 2011

 Results impacted by Brazilian sugar crop harvest delays

Notes: (1) Includes gold equivalents (silver) at a gold/silver conversion ratio of 1/53.16 and 1/41.09 for H1 2012 and H1 2011 respectively based on average prices.

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400 800 1,200 1,600 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Mopani E&P Prodeco Kazzinc Katanga Mutanda Capex

Organic Growth – Glencore’s Own Production

Cu Equivalent Production Volume and Capex

(100% basis) Approved Expansion Projects: 2012E – 2015E CAGR 18.4% Note: Excludes growth pipeline in agricultural segment, including Viterra

US$ m k MT

Capex for named assets 7

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Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-Up

Katanga Kazzinc

 Gold and silver production from own sources in H1 2012 were higher

than H1 2011 by 13% and 15% respectively

 Reflects the ramp up at Altyntau Kokshetau and an increase in gold

recovered from the lead smelter

– Operational review process (nearing completion) to de-bottleneck

and increase production by H2 2013

 Zinc, lead and copper production from own sources in H1 2012 were

lower than in H1 2011

 New copper smelter remains in ramp-up phase and now operating at

80% of design capacity

– Expected to reach design capacity in H1 2013

233 207 H1 2011 H1 2012 Gold

Own production (ktoz)

43 43 H1 2011 H1 2012 12.5% nil

 Copper produced in metal and concentrate in H1 2012 was 43kt, with

copper metal production increasing by 12% during the H1 2012

 Ore mined and milled increased by 8% and 13% respectively  Copper production flat primarily due to power outages resulting in

equivalent 28 days of lost production

 Phase IV now in process with completion expected on time in 2013.

Replicates proven technology already in use at Mutanda

Copper

Own production (kt)

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I 7,944 7,093 H1 2011 H1 2012 1 2 . %

Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-up

Prodeco E&P Mutanda

38 26 H1 2011 H1 2012

Copper

Own production (kt)

 Completion of additional SX/EW circuits in Q2 2012 resulted in significant

copper cathode ramp up in H1 2012

– Copper cathode production 153% higher than H1 2011 at 36kt  Copper production (metal and in concentrate) up 48%  Feasibility study underway for 100kt sulphide concentrator, expected to be

completed during Q1 2013

 During H1 2012, increased interest in Mutanda from 40% to 60% with an option

to purchase an additional 20% interest in December 2013

– Significant step in stated strategy of merging Mutanda and Kansuki  Mutanda / Kansuki on track to produce 200kt per annum by end 2013  First production from the Aseng field achieved in November 2011 – Gross oil production achieved to the end of H1 2012 was 11.0m bbls, an average daily rate of 61,000 bbls/day  Development of the Alen field in Equatorial Guinea remains on schedule for first production in Q3 2013  Glencore's first operated exploration well, Oak-1x, successfully drilled in the Bolongo licence (Glencore interest: 100%) offshore

Cameroon during May and June. A 13.7 meter oil column was discovered in the main prospect with a total net oil pay of 6.2 meters, which has significantly de-risked the adjacent structures lying at similar depths

 Drilling of further wells planned in the Bolongo licence during 2013 to appraise the Oak discovery and to test the adjacent

structures

 Preliminary estimates of hydrocarbon volumes from the Oak-1x indicate between 16 and 27 million barrels of recoverable oil and

potentially between 38 and 90 million barrels of recoverable oil if the adjacent but untested structures are included

 Total own coal production H1 2012 was 7.9mt, up 12% compared to H1 2011 – Positive result despite heavy rains leading to mud accumulation at the La

Jagua pit

 Largest capital expenditure project currently under way is the construction of

the new direct loading port (Puerto Nuevo)

– Project on schedule and budget and expected to be commissioned in H1

2013

Coal

Own production (kt)

48.4% 9

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Steven Kalmin

Chief Financial Officer

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US$ m H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 % Change vs. H1 2011 % Change vs. H2 2011 Revenue 92,120 94,032 107,957 17% 15% Adjusted EBITDA (1) (3) 3,845 2,619 3,199 (17%) 22% Adjusted EBIT (2) (3) 3,303 2,095 2,508 (24%) 20% Net income attributable to equity holders (3) 2,439 1,621 1,809 (26%) 12% Statutory net income attributable to equity holders 2,474 1,574 2,275 (8%) 45% Funds from operations (FFO) (4) 2,145 1,377 1,930 (10%) 40% 31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 Annualised H1 2012 % Change Total equity (including non-controlling interest) 32,335 34,848 8% Net debt (US$ m) 12,938 14,466 12% FFO to net debt (%) 27.2% 22.9% 26.7%

Key Financial Highlights

Notes: (1) Adjusted EBITDA is revenue less cost of goods sold, less selling and administrative expenses, plus share of income from associates and joint controlled entities, plus dividend income, plus depreciation and amortisation. (2) Adjusted EBIT is Adjusted EBITDA less depreciation and amortisation. (3) Pre significant items. (4) FFO is Operating cash flow before working capital changes less net interest paid, less tax paid, plus dividends received from associates.

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31.12.2011 30.06.2012 Annualised H1 2012 Gross debt $28.0bn $29.3bn Net funding $26.7bn $27.8bn Net debt $12.9bn $14.5bn Adjusted current ratio 1.53x 1.48x FFO to net debt 27.2% 22.9% 26.7% Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.00x 2.49x 2.26x Adjusted EBITDA to net interest 7.63x 7.09x

Robust Balance Sheet(1)

 Robust balance sheet with $9bn of committed liquidity

headroom

 No material refinancings in the next 12 months –

Liquidity spread across more than 100 banks globally

 Strong cashflow coverage ratios: –

FFO to net debt at 22.9% (26.7% on annualised first half results) vs. 27.2% in 2011

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.49x (2.26x on annualised first half results) vs. 2.0x in 2011

 Further working capital release expected in H2 2012  S&P and Moody’s investment grade credit ratings

targeted: currently BBB (watch positive) and Baa2 (review with direction uncertain) respectively

 Adjusted current ratio healthy at 1.48x vs. 1.53x in 2011  Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $32m, representing 0.1% of

shareholders’ equity

Notes: (1) All definitions as per H1 2012 results release.

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I 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ BB- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ratings evolution versus key peers

S&P rating

  • Xstrata $5.9bn rights

issue in March 2009

  • Glencore $10bn IPO

in May 2011, with $7.5 bn primary proceeds

  • Rio Tinto’s $38bn

acquisition of Alcan in July 2007

  • Rio Tinto’s $14.8bn

rights issues in June and July 2009

Consistently Solid Credit Profile Across the Cycle

Glencore Xstrata Anglo American Rio Tinto Noble Group Cargill ADM

 Business model proven to

be highly cash flow resilient across the cycle since first public credit rating in 1997

 Marketing debt usage is

fundamentally different to that associated with industrial activities. Short working capital turnover (36 days) with price and credit routinely hedged and title to funded underlying inventories retained

 Recent all-in funding

costs of <2.5% reflects these features from a lender perspective

 Marketing is itself

financed conservatively with average 2 year facilities funding 36 days working capital cycle

Resilient diversified business model, cash-like nature of RMI, low capital intensive nature of business and lower effective tax rate enable Glencore to maintain a strong credit rating (currently BBB, positive watch) despite variations in certain headline credit metrics

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Net Debt (US$ bn)

History of Stable Credit Ratios

FFO/Net Debt (x)

Note: (1) Reflects receipt of IPO proceeds (1)

11.5 10.4 10.2 13.6 14.8 8.3 12.9 14.5 31.6% 20.9% 22.9% 20.3% 22.6% 49.6% 27.2% 22.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 FY 2008 H1 2009 FY 2009 H1 2010 FY 2010 H1 2011 FY 2011 H1 2012 14

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H1 2012 vs. H2 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets

(US$ m) 1,393 1,646 (253) 83 (144) 30 1,435 (93) 307 28 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 H2 2011 Adj. EBIT Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other Adjusted EBIT pre associate income Associate Income H1 2012 Adj. EBIT

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H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets

1,393 1,707 (314) 45 (129) 38 2,052 (571) 575 (303) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 H1 2011 Adj. EBIT Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other Adjusted EBIT pre associate income Associate Income H1 2012 Adj. EBIT (US$ m)

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1,547 1,655 901 690 635 766 633 609 688 666 184 266 552 145 350 299 119 540 92 (100) 114 153 (200) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 Average H1 2010 to H1 2012

Metals Energy Agriculture Average 2008-2012

938 1,277 1,152 1,118 Average 2008-2012: 1,150 1,572 654

Marketing Profitability H1 2012 in Perspective

(US$ m)

Adjusted HY EBIT(1) (2)

Note: (1) No split available for H1 2008 to H2 2009 (2) Excludes corporate costs in 2010-2012

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South African Coal

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South African Coal Overview

A portfolio of high quality long life assets

Entity Glencore Effective Ownership % Reserves and Resources Total Annual Saleable Production Annual Export Production Annual Domestic Production Optimum Coal 64.13%(1) 1,200mt 14.2mt 6.8mt 7.4mt Shanduka Coal 49.99% 300mt 6mt 0.8mt 5.2mt Umcebo Mining 43.66% 1,000mt 7.1mt 0.3mt 6.8mt Total Controlled 2,500mt 27.3mt 7.9mt 19.4mt Entity Glencore Effective Ownership % Reserves and Resources(2) Total Annual Saleable Production Annual Export Production Annual Domestic Production Kangra Coal 15% 1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt Total Non- Controlled 1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt

 Glencore has developed a significant portfolio of coal assets in South Africa since the incorporation of Shanduka Coal in 2005  Recent acquisitions of Umcebo, Optimum and Kangra have increased aggregated saleable production to > 30mt p.a.  Glencore controlled entities have a combined Richards Bay Coal Terminal export allocation of 9.9mt; Kangra has 1.8mt  Glencore has management control of Optimum, Shanduka Coal and Umcebo  Glencore’s 15% interest in Kangra Coal is via an indirect interest through its 49.99% shareholding in Shanduka Coal, which in

turn has a 30% interest in Kangra

Glencore controlled entities Non - Glencore controlled entities Summary

Notes: (1) Glencore effective ownership as at 30 June 2012 was 63% (2) The reserve and resource statement for Kangra is currently being completed. The number included is an estimate based on the work that has been done to date

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South African Coal Projects

Strong pipeline of high quality projects

 In addition, the following projects are currently being investigated and are expected to be developed over time – Belfast (Umcebo) – resource of c.114mt – Hendrina (Umcebo) – resource of c.374mt – Leslie (Umcebo) – resource of c.250mt, contiguous to the Springboklaagte project and may be fast tracked – Overvaal (Optimum) – resources of c.189mt – Vlakfontein (Optimum) – resources of c.41mt

Development projects Long lead projects

Project (1) Entity Estimated Start Up Expected Annual ROM Production Primary Market Life of Mine Capital Expenditure (Estimated) Employees – Operational (Estimated) Wonderfontein (2) Umcebo From 2012 3.6mt Export +- 20 Years R1bn 600 Koornfontein 4 Seam Optimum From 2013 3mt Eskom +- 12 Years R700m 250 Springboklaagte Shanduka / Umcebo (50/50) From 2015 3.6mt Export +- 12 Years R1.2bn 500 Argent Shanduka From 2015 2mt Export / Eskom +- 12 Years R400m 250 TNC Optimum From 2015 3.5mt Export +- 11 Years R900m 300 Remhoogte Optimum From 2016 4mt Export +- 16 Years R2bn 1,000 Schoonoord Optimum From 2015 1.3mt Export +- 15 Years R500m 150 Kusipongo Kangra From 2015 4mt Export +- 20 Years R1.2bn 1,000

Notes: (1) All projects are 100% owned except for the Wonderfontein project which is 50% owned by Umcebo, however it has management control of the project (2) The Wonderfontein project is in early development stage; all other projects are going through the feasibility process

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South African Coal Overview

Geographical Map

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 Eskom’s contracted coal is decreasing as its existing contracts come to an end  Currently constructing 2 new power stations: – Kusile (4,800MW) – construction continuing, completion expected by 2018 with the first 800MW expected to

start in December 2015

– Medupi (4,800MW) – construction continuing, expected to start producing electricity in H2 2013  The combination of expiring contracts and the new power stations means that Eskom’s un-contracted tonnage

increases significantly to as much as 40mt in 2018

Eskom

Opportunities in South Africa

  • 1. Eskom Coal Shortfall

Source: Dan Marokane McCloskey Presentation – 27.01.2012

Graph based on a 50 year

  • perational lifespan with
  • nly 5 stations assumed

in operation after 2040 Total uncommitted requirement of ~40Mtpa as early as 2018 MT per annum (million)

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Opportunities in South Africa

  • 2. Transnet Freight Rail Expansion

 Current rail capacity for Richards Bay exports expected to be c. 70mt for FY 2012  Plans approved to increase capacity to 81mt per annum by 2014  Transnet plans to expand rail capacity to 110mt and new exporters will be accommodated above the current port

capacity of 91mt

– The increased capacity could add significant value to the Group given its current RBCT shareholding

RBCT Exports Swazilink

 Transnet confirmed plans to invest ZAR17bn on building a Swazilink railway line  Proposed line will increase rail capacity for both general freight and coal exports and will be the biggest rail project

undertaken in Southern Africa since 1976

 A new ZAR3.7bn single line covering 146km through Swaziland will be built by Transnet and investments of

ZAR8.6bn will be made to upgrade and strengthen about 600km of existing railways

 The line is expected to take as much as 15mt of general freight cargo off the Richards Bay coal line and free up

capacity for coal moving to Richards Bay

– Could lead to an increase in Richards Bay coal capacity to c.100mt by 2020

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Agricultural Products

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Acquisition of Viterra

  • Transaction was announced on 20

March 2012, with component sales to Agrium and Richardson of c. CAD2.6bn already agreed

  • Glencore estimated net outflow of

approximately CAD3.5bn to be further reduced via various non-core Viterra assets identified for likely disposal

  • On 29 May 2012, Viterra shareholders

approved the acquisition

  • Almost all regulatory approvals have

been received, including Canadian and Australian competition and foreign investment clearances

  • Approval of MOFCOM (China) is still

pending

  • Post Merger Integration teams

prepared for closing

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I Russia 15% Canada 13% Australia 15% EU-27 12% Other 26% USA 19% USA 2% Australia 17% Ukraine 9% Russia 1% Other 2% Canada 69% Ukraine 18% Argentina 17% Russia 17% EU-27 16% Canada 6% Other 6% Australia 20%

Wheat (140 million MT) World Exports by Country(1) Barley (17 million MT) World Exports by Country(1) Canola (12 million MT) World Exports by Country(1) Africa Rest of Asia Malaysia Indonesia Japan

Viterra has origination assets in key geographic markets, in particular Australia & Canada

United States

Note: (1) Source: USDA, FAS, PSD. 2011/2012 estimated exports

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Importance of Canadian and Australian agri-markets

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AUSTRALIA 109 Grain Silos SOUTH AUSTRALIA 8 Port Terminals EASTERN CANADA 4 Port Terminals WESTERN CANADA 63 Grain Silos 3 Port Terminals 8 Specialty Crop Facilities 2 Processing Facilities

Viterra Export Terminal Capacity Viterra Grain Handling Assets Existing Glencore Agriculture Assets

Diversified geographic mix in agricultural products segment

SOUTH AMERICA Farming Grain Silos Oilseed Processing Biodiesel Procurement Business Port Terminals EU / FSU Farming Grain Silos Port Terminals Oilseed Processing Biodiesel Procurement Business AUSTRALIA Farming Procurement Business Malt processing

Complementary asset portfolios

CHINA 49% JV Canola Oilseed Processing

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U.S. 3 Specialty Crop Facilities Durum Milling Pasta processing Summary of Global Assets Acquired from Viterra North America Australia/NZ Total Acquired Grain Silos 63 109 172 Specialty Crop Facilities 11

  • 11

Port Terminals 7 8 15 Processing Facilities 4 8 (incl. 1 China JV) 12

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48 48 302 376 22 17 33 252 2 274 26 100 200 300 400 500 B e g i n S t

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US Soy Supply & Demand (Crop Year 2012/13)

Projections as at August 2012 Projections as at May 2012

Source: USDA

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Development in US Product Balance from May to August 2012

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

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Concluding Remarks and Outlook

Overall Industrial Marketing

 Solid underlying profitability in Marketing, with metals particularly strong – Strong performances from copper and aluminium  Highlights strength of our highly diversified business model – Underpinned by strong relationships with customers, suppliers and finance providers  Performance heavily impacted by weaker average prices for key metals produced  Positives from our delivery of growth projects including oil E&P, Kazzinc, Mutanda, Prodeco and South African

coal

– Continue to work hard to overcome short term production impacts at Katanga  Strong performance at the Aseng oilfield is particularly pleasing and expected to continue into the second half  Confident that we can deliver strong production growth over the next twelve months  Despite economic headwinds across Europe, US and China, Glencore delivered a healthy financial performance

with net income, pre-significant items, of $1.8bn

 The first half of 2012 also saw a number of material corporate events announced – Recommended merger of equals with Xstrata announced on 7 February (subject to shareholder vote on 7

September and other regulatory approvals)

– Acquisition of Viterra announced on 20 March (subject to Chinese MOFCOM regulatory approval)  Other highlights included – The purchase of a majority stake in Mutanda – Acquisition of Vale’s European manganese operations and associated marketing agreements  Glencore’s diversified business model underpins the respectable performance against an uncertain

macroeconomic picture and weaker commodity price environment

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Q & A

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