GCFA Presentation for SEJ Conference PRESENTATION TITLE Sub Title/Author/Presenter March 9, 2020
2019 Apportionments & PRESENTATION TITLE Collection Rate Trends Sub Title/Author/Presenter
Jurisdictional Apportionments – World Service Fund World Ser rld Service F ice Fund Collection Rat nd Collection Rate T Trends ends 100.0% 100.0% 95.0% 95.0% 91.2% 92.1% 92.1% 90.9% 91.2% 90.9% 91.3% 91.3% 90.2% 90.2% 90.0% 90.0% 89.4% 89.4% 89.9% 89.9% 90.0% 90.0% 88.2% 88.2% 88.3% 88.3% 86.5% 86.5% 86.5% 86.5% 86.9% 86.9% 85.0% 85.0% 84.2% 84.2% 83.9% 83.9% 80.0% 80.0% 75.0% 75.0% 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019
Jurisdictional Apportionments – General Administration Fund General A General Administration F ministration Fund Collection Rat nd Collection Rate T Trends ends 100.0% 100.0% 95.0% 95.0% 91.7% 91.7% 89.6% 89.6% 89.6% 88.9% 89.6% 88.9% 90.0% 90.0% 89.5% 89.5% 88.3% 88.3% 87.4% 87.4% 88.0% 88.0% 87.0% 87.0% 84.8% 84.8% 85.0% 85.0% 86.0% 86.0% 84.2% 84.2% 84.2% 84.2% 83.9% 83.9% 81.5% 81.5% 80.0% 80.0% 75.0% 75.0% 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019
Jurisdictional Apportionments – Episcopal Fund Epis iscopal F copal Fund C nd Collection Rat llection Rate T Trends ends 100.0% 100.0% 95.0% 95.0% 93.2% 93.2% 93.3% 93.3% 93.6% 93.6% 93.4% 93.4% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 91.6% 91.6% 92.0% 92.0% 91.6% 91.6% 89.2% 89.2% 90.0% 90.0% 89.9% 89.9% 90.4% 90.4% 89.1% 89.1% 87.8% 87.8% 86.8% 86.8% 85.0% 85.0% 80.0% 80.0% 75.0% 75.0% 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019
2021-2024 Quadrennial Budget PRESENTATION TITLE Sub Title/Author/Presenter Key Steps and Timeline
2021 - 2024 Budget Key Steps & Timeline • Mar March 20 h 2017 – GCFA forms The Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce • No November 20 mber 2017 – GCFA & The Connectional Table approve the “Guiding Principles” that are to be the basis for establishing the budget for 2021-2024.
2021 - 2024 Budget Guiding Principles 1. Build a budget that reflects the Church’s missional priorities and outcomes as “discerned and articulated” by the Connectional Table in consultation with the Council of Bishops. 2. Present the budget to General Conference in a narrative format that reflects the Church’s missional priorities and outcomes. The presentation addresses the compelling missional results, and the essential partnerships among the General Conference, the General Agencies and the Annual Conferences.
2021 - 2024 Budget Guiding Principles 3. The budget will be built considering economic and related inputs from the following : • Economic Advisory Committee assumptions and projections • Apportionment Sustainability Task Force report • Reserves Task Force report 4. Since 1996, the base percentage has declined quadrennium to quadrennium by approximately 10%, except for the current quadrennium. The budget will continue this long-term trend.
2021 - 2024 Budget Guiding Principles 5. Historical allocation of the WSF to the agencies as well as the level of funding for the Black College Fund, Ministerial Education Fund, Africa University Fund and the Interdenominational Cooperation Fund will not be assumed. The allocation will be made based in part on the following: • The Church’s missional priorities • Levels of reserves • Evaluations • Demonstrated commitment to administrative and program efficiencies and partnerships
Apportionment Sustainability Task Force Mar March 20 h 2017 • GCFA forms The Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce Member Membership ship • 5 Jurisdictional Bishops (1 from each Jurisdiction) • 5 Clergy (1 from each Jurisdiction) • 5 Lay Persons (1 from each Jurisdiction) Pur Purpose ose • Looks at the structure and impact of the requested giving that supports ministry across the denomination. April 20 April 2018 18 = Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce submits its report and recommendations to GCFA.
Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce Recommendation: commendation: We believe a new future of The United Methodist Church must be built on a renewed local church foundation. Theref Therefore, w ore, we recommen recommend a reducti a reduction in general n in general Chur Church ch appor apportionm ionment suppor nt support of 25% of 25% by reducing the base per reducing the base percent entage. ge. A 25% reduction: Causes us to imagine and dream about what the church of the 21st century • is all about. • Creates a more flexible and nimble system and ushers in a new paradigm. • Recalibrates the connection and encourages collaboration at the general Church level. 29
Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce Recommendation: commendation: Ministries supported by general Church apportioned funds would recalibrate by identifying reductions to budgets. The The per percentage of reductions ma entage of reductions may no y not necessarily be spread e t necessarily be spread evenly enly over all General er all General Chur Church F ch Funds or General A nds or General Agencies. encies. 30
Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce Recommendation: commendation: The i-factor does not represent the United Methodists in the pews but rather the economic conditions in the area. We recommend the Economic Advisory Team review and assess the effectiveness of the i-factor as a just method of economic adjustment, and make any necessary recommendations to the Budget Advisory Team. 32
Jurisdictional Apportionment Formula 2017-2020 A = E x (P + i) A = E x (P + i) A = Apportionments E = Net Expenditures (Expenses less Benevolent Giving, Capital Expenditures, Debt Payments, or a portion of Apportioned Giving P = Base Percentage (of net expenditures) approved by General Conference i = Local Economic Adjustment
Jurisdictional Apportionment Formula 2021-2024 EA EAC R C Recom commended and GCF ended and GCFA Boar Board Appr d Approved Eliminat Elimination of ion of “i-f “i-fact actor” fr r” from Appor om Apportionme ionment F t Formula rmula A = E x P A = E x P A = Apportionments E = Net Expenditures (Expenses less Benevolent Giving, Capital Expenditures, Debt Payments, or a portion of Apportioned Giving P = Base Percentage (of net expenditures) approved by General Conference
2021 - 2024 Budget Key Steps & Timeline • Ma May 20 y 2018 – The Economic Advisory Committee of GCFA makes initial report to GCFA regarding the projections of local church net expenditures and general church collection rates as they relate to the 2021-2024 apportionments. • August 20 gust 2018 – GCFA reviews reports and recommendations from both the Apportionment Sustainability Taskforce and the Economic Advisory Committee. It approves an 18% reduction of the Base Percentage used to calculate Apportionments
Economic Advisory Committee (EAC) Commit mmittee M ee Member ersh ship ip • 5 Economists Financial Experts from Wespath and Merrill Lynch • • 2 Annual Conference Treasurers • District Superintendent • Clergy • Connectional Table Member Purpose Purpose To provide expert analysis and forecasts for use by those who will present the proposed general Church budget to General Conference each quadrennium. To Report upon the economic state of the United Methodist Church, its local churches, annual • conferences, and denominational agencies. • To encourage and conduct research that aids in the understanding of the economics of the United Methodist Church • To provide economic predictions necessary for the establishment of the quadrennial budget for the denomination
Economic Advisory Committee Methodology used for projections The Economic Advisory Committee utilized the following methodology in its projections: • Structured Projection Method – Incorporates macroeconomic variables as well as changes in local church statistics. Factors considered: • U.S. Gross Domestic Product projections • Inflation projections • Worship Attendance trends and projections • Local church total and net expenditure trends General Church collection rate trends •
Jurisdictional Attendance Trends 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ‐ 1.0% ‐ 1.0% ‐ 1.6% ‐ 1.8% ‐ 1.9% ‐ 2.1% ‐ 2.2% ‐ 2.0% ‐ 2.4% ‐ 2.6% ‐ 2.9% ‐ 3.3% ‐ 3.0% ‐ 3.8% ‐ 3.7% ‐ 4.0% ‐ 4.20% ‐ 4.70% ‐ 5.0% ‐ 5.1% ‐ 5.5% Attendance Actual Attendance EAC Proj. ‐ 6.0%
Net Expenditures in Billions 4.80 4.62 4.62 4.61 4.60 4.57 4.60 4.55 4.52 4.51 4.48 4.46 4.46 4.45 4.40 4.23 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ‐ 2021 Proj.
Base Percentage Trends 6.00% 5.41% 5.50% 4.95% 5.00% 4.37% 4.50% 3.97% 4.00% 3.56% 3.50% 3.31% 3.29% 3.00% 2.70% 2.50% 2.00% '93 ‐ '96 '97 ‐ '00 '01 ‐ '04 '05 ‐ '08 '09 ‐ '12 '13 ‐ '16 '17 ‐ '20 '21 ‐ '24
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