Gakuji KURATA Pichnaree Lalitaporn, Minna Guo, Ken Senoo, Naoya - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kyoto University

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Gakuji KURATA

Pichnaree Lalitaporn, Minna Guo, Ken Senoo, Naoya Kuramoto

Kyoto University

19th AIM International Workshop 13th – 14th December, 2013 NIES, Tsukuba, JAPAN

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Model Simulation of PM2.5 during January to March 2013 from China to Japan. Observation and model simulation of severe haze event in June 2013 Development of personal exposure model to estimate the health impact 15years trend analysis of Satellite retrieval NO2 and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) around Asian region. Design of framework to estimate co-benefits, especially for residential sector and urban activities.

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• From January to March 2013, US Embassy in Beijing recorded very high PM2.5

concentration in Beijing. (over 800 μg/m3).

• Also, PM2.5 level at the major cities in China showed Hazardous level (over 250

μg/m3 )

• During this period, relatively high PM2.5 concentration was observed in Japan,

especially western part of Japan.

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

Source: US embassy at Beijing

(μg/m3)

JAN/01 JAN/08 JAN/15 JAN/22 JAN/29 Environmental Standard (75 μg/m3)

Model Simulation of PM2.5 during January to March 2013 from China to Japan.

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Description of Simulation

 Meteorological Model

WRF version 3.4 36km x 36km input Meteorological : NCEP FNL

 Chemical Transport Model

CMAQ version 5.0 Chemical Solver: CB5-Aero4

 Period

20th December 2012 ～ 31st March 2013

 Emission Inventory

Combined Emission : EDGAR 4.2 , GEIA and REAS Reference year of Emission: 2008 (apply no Adjustment)

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2.5

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Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3] Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3] Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3]

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1. Northern China 2. South-East China 3. South-West China 4. Other Asia Contributions from above four area were calculated . Period: 26th January 2013

• 4th February 2013

PM2.5 Black Carbon

PM2.5 concentration (ug/m3)

Other SW-China SE-China N-China Obs at W-Japan Other SW-China SE-China N-China

Contribution (ug/m3)

contribution of Emission from China (Black Carbon)

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 Contribution from Northern China is

large for Korea and Japan.

 However, Contribution from Southen

inland China reach to Japan, periodically.

Northern China Southern inland China Coastal China 8

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(BBC news)

Marina Bay Hotel (Singapore)

Causeway （Malaysia - Singapore） (Alter net)

22 June 21 June

19 June

Observation and model simulation of severe haze event in June 2013

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GRIMM EDM164 PM：0.25μm-34um , 31 ch. 1～2,000,000 particles/L dust mass: 0.1～6,000μg/m3 Time resolution : ～1 min. Meteorology: wind, temperature, precipitation, RH

■～1μm ■1～2.5μm ■2.5～4μm ■4～10μm ■10μm～ 600 500 400 300 200 100

PM2.5 concentrtion [μg/m3]

11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月

Total PM (Nov 2012 – June 2013)

10 June – 24 June Operating under SATREPS project

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 NASA LANCE-FIRMS Database

Location of Forest Fire and estimated fire intensity (Based on Satellite Monitoring) [semi-realtime dataset]

Singapore Johor Fire location during 1 June 2013～ 10 July

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Chemical Component of Biomass Burning at Indonesia

Description of Simulation WRF version 3.4 & CMAQ version 5.0 Grid size: 16km x 16km, Period: June 1st - 30th June 2013 Emission Inventory Anthropogenic and Biogenic EDGAR 4.2 , GEIA and REAS + Forest Fire: NASA LANCE-FIRMS

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Simulation Result ( PM2.5)

20- 23 June 2013 OC Nitrate Major components

Simulation Result

at UTM location

Observation

at UTM campus [μg/m3]

■～1μm ■1～2.5μm ■2.5～4μm ■4～10μm ■10μm～

６００ ４００ ２００ ０

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Source: WHO(2011)

DALYs attributable to household air pollution

Development of personal exposure model to estimate the health impact

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Coal Wood Crop residue Energy consumption in Household (MJ/year/person)

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• With Indoor emission ME A、B、C
• w/o indoor emission ME D

p m

• d

F v C C v F = +

( )

1 ( )

e m p d

S C F vC v F V = + +

Formulation to calculate the concentration.

• Outdoor ME E

m

• C

C =

1

m p

• d

Se C F vC v F V   = +   +  

Single-Compartment Mass Balance Model under steady-state assumption

: 微環境 における大気汚染物質濃度(μg/m3) : 屋外大気汚染物質濃度(μg/m3) : 浸透率(-) : 換気回数(1/hr) : 除去率(1/hr) : 一時間当たり燃料消費量(KJ/hr) : 排出係数(μg/KJ) : 部屋の体積(m3)

Pollutant concentration at micro environment (m) (μg/m3) Penetration Factor (-) Pollutant concentration at Outdoor (μg/m3) Air Exchange Rate (1/hr) Deposition rate (1/hr) Energy consumption (KJ/hr) Emission Factor (μg/KJ) Volume of Micro Environment(m3)

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Beijing Tia ianjin in He Hebe bei Shanxi Inner… Liaoning Jilin ilin Heilon… Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shand… Hena enan Hubei Hunan Guang… Guangxi Hai ainan an Chong… Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Tibe ibet Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

Rural

Average PM2.5 exposure (Upper: Urban Lower: Rural)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1-4・ 5-14・ 15-19・EMP 15-19・UEM 20-24・UEM 20-24・EMP 25-29・UEM 25-29・EMP 30-34・UEM 30-34・EMP 35-39・UEM 35-39・EMP 40-44・UEM 40-44・EMP 45-49・UEM 45-49・EMP 50-54・UEM 50-54・EMP 55-59・UEM 55-59・EMP 60-64・UEM 60-64・EMP 65-69・UEM 65-69・EMP 70-74・UEM 70-74・EMP 1-4・ 5-14・ 15-19・EMP 15-19・UEM 20-24・UEM 20-24・EMP 25-29・UEM 25-29・EMP 30-34・UEM 30-34・EMP 35-39・UEM 35-39・EMP 40-44・UEM 40-44・EMP 45-49・UEM 45-49・EMP 50-54・UEM 50-54・EMP 55-59・UEM 55-59・EMP 60-64・UEM 60-64・EMP 65-69・UEM 65-69・EMP 70-74・UEM 70-74・EMP

Rural

ME-E(L)(Outdoor-Low) ME-E(M)(Outdoor-Mid) ME-E(H)(Outdoor-High) ME-D(Indoor-w/o-emission) ME-C(Indoor-Lighting) ME-B(Indoor-Heating) ME-A(Indoor-Cooking)

Male Female

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15years trend analysis of Satellite retrieval NO2 and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) around Asian region.

10 20 30 40 50 1995 2000 2005 2010

Trend at Beijing

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1995 2000 2005 2010

Trend at Remote area

2 4 6 8 10 12 1995 2000 2005 2010

Trend at Bangkok

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19 To quantify the co-benefit of LCS countermeasure to reduction of health impact of air pollution

Downscaling Emission Inventory (Regional) GCM CM Output Landuse Terrain

ArcGIS WRF

Emission Mesh data Meteo. Field Calculated Concentration

LCS policies

Health Impact

Boundary Condition

Emission inventory (Mesh data) Meteorological Model Chemical Transport Model

CM CMAQ

Time variation (Annual, Daily)

Co-benefit Analysis

Death Disease

Impact Assessment

Exposure

Outdoor

Micro Environment

Indoor

Design of framework to estimate co-benefits, especially for residential sector and urban activities.

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Shindell et al., (2012)

Reduction by CO2 measure. Additional Reduction by CH4 + BC measure.

• Health Impact of SLCP(expecially PM2.5 and Ozone) is very large.
• At the same time, SLCP contribute global radiative forcing.
• Recently, It is said that the rapid reduction of CH4 and BC can reduce the

temperature increase around 0.5 ℃ soon after the reduction.

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Bond et. al., JGR (2012)

Open Burning Industrial Residential

• Most BC-rich source emit OC
• simultaneously. So, net radiative

forcing by such source negative.

• Reduction of BC-rich source enhances

global warming.

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 Further development of emission estimation method for

residential sector. (Collect additional data for energy consumption and cooking and heating equipment)

 Development of urban pollution model which can

manage roadside high concentration to improve personal exposure model.

 Future estimation under BaU case and LCS scenarios.  Validation of the model and historical health impact.

Thank you for your attention.