Heritag ge Foundat tion The Risks of th he Reset: W Why Wash ington Mu ust Watch I Its Step Wi ith Moscow w Octob ber 25, 201 11 G arry Kaspa arov: Why Vladimir Putin Is Im mmune to t the Americ can Reset T Thank you fo or inviting m me to attend th his importan nt event here e at the Herit tage Founda ation today. M My thanks to Speaker Boe ehner and all l the other p articipants f for their inter rest and thei ir comment ts. F or a little int troduction o f myself, the ere’s one fac ct from my b biography th at is always omitted. Many here m might not be e aware that I I myself am from the De eep South, ri ight next to Georgia. [SLIDE: M AP OF USS SR] For more inf formation: ht ttp://theothe errussia.org – mgreengard@ @theotherru ussia.org
O Of course, I’m m referring t to the Deep S South of the Soviet Unio on! That’s m my hometown n of Baku, Az zerbaijan, wh here I was b orn in 1963, , next to wha at is now the e Republic o f Georgia. O Of course mu uch has chan nged since th hen. There ar re no more C Communists in the Repub ublic of Georg gia – much li ike there are no more De emocrats in t the state of G Georgia. And d Georgia is as good a pl lace as any t to begin my talk on the P Putin regime e’s immunity y to America a’s attempts at a reset. Ge orgia is curr rently under great pressu ure from the US and othe ers to allow R Russia to joi in the Worl d Trade Org ganization, d despite two la arge pieces o of Georgian sovereign te erritory bein g occupied d by Russian forces. [SLI IDE: MAP O OF GEORGI IA AND OC CCUPIED T TERRITORIE ES] Many in the m M media and ev ven some go overnments r refer to Abkh hazia and So outh Ossetia a as “disputed d territories,” ” not occupi ied, ignoring g the fact the ey were taken n by military y force. Ofte en this is the e same medi ia that refers to parts of P Palestine as “occupied” by Israel. D espite heavy y pressure from Putin’s s Russia, Ge eorgia has re mained stau unchly pro-de emocratic an nd pro-weste ern, For more inf formation: ht ttp://theothe errussia.org – mgreengard@ @theotherru ussia.org
and yet it appears that getting Russia into the WTO is of greater importance to this US administration that protecting the rights and territory of an ally. Putin’s administration has been quick to boast of this success, celebrating how they kept Georgia and Ukraine out of NATO. WTO membership will be another feather in this cap. Putin is making no concessions on Georgia and so far, his belief that doing business with Russia will trump protecting Georgia seems well founded. Even when a series of terror bombings in Tbilisi were tied to Russian intelligence, Hillary Clinton only politely hinted at this atrocity, at least in public. This is just the sort of display of weakness, a fear of public confrontation, that feeds the sense of impunity that has empowered dictators throughout history. The American “reset” policy with Russia began right after the Russian-Georgian war, spitting on the deal negotiated by Sarkozy and giving a clear indication of the Obama administration’s priorities in the region. I have no qualms about using that word, “dictator” when referring to Vladimir Putin, and nor should anyone else at this point. What has been clear to the Russian opposition for a decade should now be clear to any casual observer. Putin has no intention of ever giving up power. That Russia has these spectacles they call elections does not change anything. To make it clear, I have a picture here of a Russian polling station, updated again for the upcoming election. [SLIDE: CARTOON OF BALLOT BOXES, ONE TITLED “PUTIN” WITH “MEDVEDEV” SCRATCHED OUT AND THE OTHER BOX TITLED “SHREDDER”] For more information: http://theotherrussia.org – mgreengard@theotherrussia.org
Y You can see t they keep up pdating the b box on the le eft, while the e one on the right never changes. Here in the US your ele ections have fixed rules a and unpredic ctable result s. In Russia we have unp predictable ru ules and fixe ed results! No new politi N ical parties h have been re egistered in R Russia since 2004. Putin n’s United Ru ussia controls e every step o f the process s: registratio on of parties, , finances, ca ampaigning, , the media, and, of course e, the countin ng. With eve ery avenue o of political op pposition sh hut down, the e regime has s turned to o closing off every form of public pro otest as well l. In our mar rches, we are e frequently outnumb ered by riot police ten to o one. Putin understands s force, and m makes an ov verwhelming g show of f force whene ever he has th he chance. [S SLIDE: PHO OTOS FROM M RUSSIAN N STREET PROTES STS AND PO OLICE ACT TIONS] For more inf formation: ht ttp://theothe errussia.org – mgreengard@ @theotherru ussia.org
We are proud W d that all the force used in n all of these e protests wa as on the sid de of the poli ice. We have been entirel ly peaceful, with not eve en a broken w windows, no o burned car rs. In n Moscow an nd St. Peters sburg in part ticular, the v voice of the o opposition is s rarely if ev ver allowed a at all in publ lic. Last wee ek, Medvede ev spoke at th he Moscow State Unive ersity journal lism departme ent, the famo ous zhurfak . Except Med dvedev did n not speak to U University s students ther e. The 300 members of f the audienc ce had all bee en brought in n from outsi ide groups lo oyal to the Kremlin while the ac ctual student s were no al lowed to att end. Three s students, thre ee brave girl ls, who did t try to get int to the event w were detaine ed. This sort t of circus is very much a along the lin nes of the return n to Soviet m methodologie es mentioned d by Speake er Boehner in n his remark ks. These pol licies are prom moted both in nternally and d externally. A And please do on’t tell me about Putin’ ’s supposed p popularity in n Russia as a a way of diminish ing his oppr ession of the e Russian pe eople. How d do you know w? Not long ago, Hosni Mubarak k enjoyed 90 % approval in last Decem mber’s elect tions. Qadda afi was proba ably near 10 00%! The high h price of oil allows Putin n to make pa ayoffs and to o increase th he budget for r internal sec curity For more inf formation: ht ttp://theothe errussia.org – mgreengard@ @theotherru ussia.org
forces and propaganda, even while the economic infrastructure collapses. If you must do business with Putin’s Russia, that is business. But do not provide him with democratic credentials. The systematic destruction of Russia’s nascent democracy by Putin has increased its pace in recent years. This acceleration took place as soon as Putin realized he would face no real opposition in the West, no matter how many journalists were killed, how many activists were jailed, how many times gas to Europe was shut off. Here in the West there is a tragic assumption that dictators follow the same political logic as exists in democracies. In return, Putin’s mentality has always been that democracy in the West is just another form of control, a successful model of keeping people in line. That is, he doesn’t believe it is really about the power of the people or representation, but that the object is to make people think they have a voice, which makes them easier to control. And you know what? Putin now thinks he has been proven correct! Every time America and other western leaders betray their founding principles it confirms Putin’s belief that everything has a price, that everything is negotiable, that democracy and human rights are just chips on the table along with gas rights, trade treaties, and weapons agreements. Political freedom is for sale, just like the former German chancellor he hired to work for Gazprom, or the 10% of Facebook now owned by Russian oligarchs, or the New Jersey Nets. Putin is happy to trade some small chips, things he doesn’t really care about, as long as he concedes nothing on the things that really matter to him and his allies. He gives you something in Afghanistan and maybe you do not complain about rigged elections. He gets what he wants, and he doesn’t have to worry about getting Congressional approval. (Not to give your administration any ideas.) Putin was a KGB lieutenant-colonel and you can view his regime’s history as a series of case files. [SLIDE: PUTIN AND SET OF CASE FILES LABELED: OPERATIONS MEDVEDEV; RESET; YUKOS, KADYROV, MAGNITSKY] For more information: http://theotherrussia.org – mgreengard@theotherrussia.org
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