Future G HG and Air-pollutant emission range consistent with the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Chan Park, Dong Kun Lee, Jin Han Park, M i Jin Lee, Tae Yong Jung, Yongwon M o, Junghyun W oo 14 Nov., 2015

Future G HG and Air-pollutant emission range consistent with the SSP in East Asia region

21th AIM International W orkshop, NIES

• Hot-spot area of climate change
• South Korea's climate change laws
• Framework Act on Low Carbon G reen G rowth / 2010
• Act on the allocation and trade of greenhouse gas emissions rights / 2012
• Act on the Creation and Facilitation of Use of Smart G rids / 2011

Cat atego gory Area ea Cur urrent nt (1986 1986- 2005) 2005) M id id ter erm (2046 2046- 2065 2065) Long

• ng t

term (2081 2081- 2100) 2100) Average age tem emper erature (℃) Korea ea pe peni nins nsul ula 11. 11.3 +2. 2.3 (+3. 3.3) 3) +3. 3.0 (+5. 5.9) 9) East st Asi sia

• +1.

1.9

• +2.

2.4

• Globa
• bal
• +1.

1.4 (+2. 2.0) 0) +1. 1.8 (+3. 3.7) Precip ipit itatio ion Korea ea pe peni nins nsul ula 1144. 1144.5 +13% 13% +21% 21% +20% 20% (+18% 18%) East st Asi sia +7% 7%

S

• urce: CM IP5 results based on RCP4.5

( ) means RCP8.5 result

• "No Regrets" Approach to Decision-M aking against climate change
• Characterizing Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change and impact
• Integrated assessment modelling coupled with Regional characteristic
• To develop an integrated evaluation system for climate policy by interconnecting emission

inventory, integrated assessment models (emission and impact), and climate models

M odelling (LLG HG , SLCP) Socio-economic scenario Cost

Hanaoka Hu et al., 2013 manicbeancounter

Regional emission scenario (based on SSP, RCP) Regional Climate scenario Regional Air- Quality scenario Climate/air-quality Policy Assumptions M itigation cost Adaptation cost M itigation + Adaptation cost Supported Decision- M aking

OFF/ON Line Coupling

Climate Model Air Quality Model Air Quality Model Climate Model

Global Scale Regional Scale Regional Scale Global Scale OFF/ON Line Coupling Downscaling Downscaling

NIER/SNU-

ICAMS

OFF/ON Line Coupling

WRF CMAQ CCSM GEOS-Chem

Theme 1 (Today topic)

So Socio-eco conomic c Par aram am. CC CC-AQ P Polic licy & T e T ech.

ME S S A S S AGE –Chi hina na AIM –Ko Korea AIM -J ap apan an

Fut utur ure ene nergy gy us use/Fue uel us use/non non- en ener ergy ac activities es

KU KU-E P S E P S

CREA EATE/ E/CAPS PSS (Asi sian bas asey eyear ear EI EI) EC ECLIPS PSE E (Fut utur ure Proj

• jection
• n

F actor f r for A r Asia) ) GAIN INS-Globa

• bal

(No Non-Asi sian bas asey eyear ear EI EI)

Mosaic EI EI (Glo lobal l bas asey eyear ear EI EI) RC RCP 4 4.5 (Fut utur ure Proj

• jection
• n

F actor

• r f

for

• r non

non-Asi sia) Fut utur ure Proj

• jection
• n

F a F actor (China/ a/Korea/ ea/Jap apan)

• En

End-of

• f-pi

pipe pe cont

• ntrol
• l meas

easures es

S M S MOKE

• As

i s ia

GEO EOS-Ch Chem- Read eady F Future E e EIs

(Globa

• bal,

0. 0.5 5 deg eg gr gridde dded, d, M Mont

• nthl

hly, spec eciat ated ed)

CM CMAQ- Read eady Fut utur ure E EIs

(Regi giona

• nal,

54km km/18km km gr gridde dded, d, H Hour

• urly,

spec eciat ated ed)

• To Present emission scenarios of Long-lived G HG (LLG HG ) and Short lived

Climate Pollutant (SLCP) (East Asia region) for climate modeling

• Time
• 2010 - 2100
• Base Year : 2010, Target Year : 2030, 2050, 2100
• Sectors
• Fuel combustion (Residential sector, Commercial sector, Transport sector,

Industry sector (Steel, Cement, Other industries))

• Industrial process, Agriculture, Waste (Residential sector, Commercial sector,

Industry sector), Fuel mining, Others

• Data
• Population, G DP : OECD, IIASA, National Statistics
• M itigation policy : National policy, Suggested policy from research
• Technology : AIM Enduse[G LOBAL], G AINS-China
• Discount rate: 5%
• Energy price: W orld Energy Outlook
• Emission factor: IPCC guideline
• Climate scenario : RCP8.5, RCP4.5

Low emission Scenario High emission Scenario

Including mitigation policies

BAU emission Scenario

• Population
• G DP

Hanaoka

• M odel: AIM Enduse G lobal

Hanaoka., 2015

SG- China Message

• China

CREATE inventory Air Pollutants CO2 Emissions

SSP Scenarios

Message model input Energy demand by sector

Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

SO2

NOx P M2. 5 V OC

• G lobal : ECLIPSE version 5
• Regional : CREATE (NIER-KU)
• Korea : CAPSS (NIER)

• Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 10, CO, BC,

TSP, VOC, NH3)

• Sector’s Contribution to G HG :

(2010) Building 21% , Transport16% , Industry 63% (2100) Building (13-18)% , Transport (26-28)% , Industry (56-59)%

• Sector’s Contribution to Air-pollutant :

(2010) Building 6% , Transport 63% , Industry 31% (2100) Building (8-11)% , Transport (55-66)% , Industry (26-33)%

• Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, BC)
• Sector’s Contribution to G HG :

(2010) Building 20% , Transport 24% , Industry 56% (2100) Building (17-25)% , Transport (7-32)% , Industry (51-68)%

• Sector’s Contribution to Air-pollutant :

(2010) Building 2% , Transport 82% , Industry 31% (2100) Building (1-2)% , Transport (74-93)% , Industry (6-23)%

High BaU Low

CO2 G t

• Emission inventory :

G HG (CO2, CH4), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 2.5, CO, BC)

Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

SO2

NOx VOC CO

Gg/yr

PM 2.5 CH4 Low High BaU Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

NOx VOC

Emission Contribution of Asia in 2010 Emission Contribution of East Asia in 2010 55% 60% 41% 44% 43% 32% 63% 59% 70% 55% 77% 46%

+ C O, C H4 divided by 5 * C O 2 unit: P g/y r

Emission G AP

Thank you

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