Future Danube Model H2020|Insurance model review meeting, London - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Danube Model H2020|Insurance model review meeting, London - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Danube Model H2020|Insurance model review meeting, London Martin Drews Kai Schrter, Max Steinhausen, Stefan Ldtke, Viktor Rzer, Heidi Kreibich Michel Wortmann, Fred Hattermann November, 13, 2018 H2020 Insurance project

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Future Danube Model

Kai Schröter, Max Steinhausen, Stefan Lüdtke, Viktor Rözer, Heidi Kreibich

November, 13, 2018

H2020|Insurance model review meeting, London

Michel Wortmann, Fred Hattermann Martin Drews

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2 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

H2020 Insurance – project background

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3 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

CORDEX- EU IMAGE

  • Multisite, multivariate

stochastic weather generator

  • Imperial College London

SWIM

  • Hydrological model
  • PIK Potsdam

CaMa Flood

  • Hydraulic model
  • PIK Potsdam

BN- FLEMOps

  • Probabilistic flood loss model
  • GFZ Potsdam
  • GCM-RCM climate

model simulations MIKE flood Partners:

  • OASIS LMF
  • Genillard & Co
  • Pannon Pro
  • Uni. Novi Sad
  • Insurance sector
  • Pluvial flood model

for selected cities

  • DTU Copenhagen

Model chain

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4 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

OASIS LMF enabled

Event Hazard Vulnerability Damage Bin Dictionary Vulnerability Dictionary Intensity Bin Dictionary Exposure (Item) Area Peril Dictionary

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5 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Generation of stochastic meteorological event sets

  • 4 regional climate

models (CORDEX-EU)

  • 2 climate scenarios

(RCP-4.5 & 8.5)

  • Historical reference

climate (1971-2000), current climate (2006-35) and two future periods (2020- 49, 2070-99)

2006-2035

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6 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • 1. Fluvial flood

hazard modelling

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7 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

CORDEX- EU IMAGE

  • Multisite, multivariate

stochastic weather generator

  • Imperial College London

SWIM

  • Hydrological model
  • PIK Potsdam

CaMa Flood

  • Hydraulic model
  • PIK Potsdam

BN- FLEMOps

  • Probabilistic flood loss model
  • GFZ Potsdam
  • GCM-RCM climate

model simulations MIKE flood

  • Pluvial flood model
  • DTU Copenhagen

Model chain

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8 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model domain

SWIM hydrological model

Area 8x105 km2 Validation stations 44 Subbasins 13‘778 Hydrotopes 186‘296

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9 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model calibration and validation

  • Observations at 44

gauging stations

  • Multi-objective,

evolutionary Pareto

  • ptimisation
  • Variable observation

data availability

  • Historic events
  • Catchment ET

compared to MODIS

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10 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model validation

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11 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Changes from reference period until 2006-2035

Future reoccurrence of the 100-year flood

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12 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

W B Z

r

D

f

D L

c

A

f

A

r

S

f

S

f

S

c

A

f

A

River Channel Floodplain

High resolutio DEM’s height aoe rier hael ad siulated ater depth aoe rier hael Water depth above river channel (FLDDPH) DEM’s height aove river hannel FLDDIF

CaMa Flood hydrodynamic modelling

High resolutio DEM’s height aoe rier hael ad siulated ater depth aoe rier hael DEM’s height aove river hannel FLDDIF

  • Global semi-distributed hydrodynamic model
  • Here adapted to predefined, high-resolution

subbasins of the hydrological model

  • Efficient computation at larger domains and

stochastic event sets

  • Driven by daily runoff
  • Shallow water momentum equation

approximated to a local inertial form

  • 1.5D results are imposed on a high-res DEM
  • Considerable preprocessing of elevation data

necessary to fit them to assumptions

Yamazaki et al., 2012; 2014

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13 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Simulation without levees

Bavaria, Germany, 2006

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14 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Simulation with levees

Bavaria, Germany, 2006

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15 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Schröter, K. et al. Flood inundation depth maps Danube catchment. (2017). doi:10.5880/GFZ.5.4.2017.003

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16 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • 2. Pluvial flood

hazard modelling

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17 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

CORDEX- EU IMAGE

  • Multisite, multivariate

stochastic weather generator

  • Imperial College London

SWIM

  • Hydrological model
  • PIK Potsdam

CaMa Flood

  • Hydraulic model
  • PIK Potsdam

BN- FLEMOps

  • Probabilistic flood loss model
  • GFZ Potsdam
  • GCM-RCM climate

model simulations MIKE flood

  • Pluvial flood model
  • DTU Copenhagen

Model chain

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18 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • 2D urban-scale flood model (MIKE by DHI)
  • EU-DEM (25-m) Digital Elevation Model (or finer)
  • Urban land cover based on high resolution remote sensing estimates (e.g.

Sentinel-2)

  • Infiltration based on international soil data base
  • Conceptual simulation of urban drainage system
  • Rainfall events modelled by “Chicago” design storms (IDF)
  • Climate projections based on output from Climate Module

Pluvial hazard model - methodology

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19 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • MIKE flood model
  • Inputs: precipitation, DEM, infiltration,

land cover

  • Conceptual urban drainage system
  • Urban surface from remote sensing

2D Model setup

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20 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Urban surface from remote sensing

Kaspersen et al. 2017

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21 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • Historical rain: 23 May 2017
  • Current climate: RP2, RP10, RP20,

RP50, RP100

  • Validation carried out in

collaboration with Tibor Racz from Budapest Sewage Works

  • Results are available from Oasis

Hub Validation of Budapest model

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22 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Budapest model domain

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  • The infiltration is modelled as

constant in time and varying in space

  • The infiltration capacity in each

pixel depends on the soil characteristics, the slope and the impervious surface fraction

Infiltration from pervious surfaces

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24 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • Design criteria in Budapest:
  • 10-100-year rainfall event (main pipes)
  • 1-4-year rainfall event (smaller pipes)
  • Issues with man-holes being blocked may reduce capacity
  • Calibrating for a 2-year rainfall event (low end)
  • Varying the local sewer capacities from 0 to 3000 mm/day (125 mm/hour/pixel)
  • Varies with the fraction of imperviousness
  • Surface water cannot flow into the river due to the flood defences – only

via the drainage system

Conceptual drainage system model

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25 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Cloudburst in Budapest 23rd May 2017

Limited flooding in the city centre

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26 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Cloudburst in Budapest 23rd May 2017

The station ZSIG measured the highest amount of rainfall (73mm) – which is more than a 2-yr event (43mm), but less than a 100yr event (123mm).

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 26 51 76 101 126 151 176 201 226 251 276 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY [µm/s] TIME [minutes]

CDS 2 year Return Period

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27 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Simulations for Budapest (present climate)

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Details: 100-year event

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29 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Details: 100-year event

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30 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • 2a. Fluvial flood

loss model

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31 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

CORDEX- EU IMAGE

  • Multisite, multivariate

stochastic weather generator

  • Imperial College London

SWIM

  • Hydrological model
  • PIK Potsdam

CaMa Flood

  • Hydraulic model
  • PIK Potsdam

BN- FLEMOps

  • Probabilistic flood loss model
  • GFZ Potsdam
  • GCM-RCM climate

model simulations

Fluvial and pluvial flood model chain

MIKE flood

  • Pluvial flood model
  • DTU Copenhagen
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32 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

The Bayesian Network – Flood Loss Estimation Model for the private sector

  • Multi-variable
  • Probabilistic
  • For the private sector (buildings)
  • Transferable in location and scale
  • Predictions also with incomplete data

Model features & structure

BN-FLEMOps

Flood characteristics Resistance characteristics

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33 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Probabilistic loss estimation

Node probability tables

Flood characteristics Resistance characteristics

Water depth class P(wd) 1 0.0 2 0.0 3 0.0 4 0.0 5 0.0 6 0.0 7 1.0 8 0.0 9 0.0 10 0.0 Relative loss class P(wd, rloss) 1 0.001 2 0.005 3 0.013 4 0.022 5 0.034 6 0.156 7 0.683 8 0.051 9 0.025 10 0.010

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34 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model data sources

European proxies

  • Building footprint
  • Building location

Open Building Maps

  • Flood experience
  • Flood events of the

past 25 years

DFO Catalogue

  • Water depth
  • Return period
  • Duration

Hydraulic Model

  • European Asset

Map

  • Assets per land use

class

Asset Values

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35 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model data sources

European proxies

Building area Flood experience Assets

Case studies for validation

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36 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model validation

Comparison with reported loss Caldogno Lech Mulde Reported loss (Mio €) 7.5 1.9 240 Simulated loss (Mio €) 9.5 7.8 136 Lech (AT) Mulde (DE) Caldogno (IT) Simulations Reported loss Total loss in Euro Cumulative probability

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37 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

  • 2b. Pluvial flood

loss model

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38 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model structure

Bayesian zero-inflated beta regression model Zero-loss

wd: Relative water level in the building [cm] d: Flood duration [h] con: Contamination of flood water [Y/N] dam: Probability of monetary damage (latent variable) pr1: Knowledge about flood hazard [Y/N] bt1: Single-family home [Y/N] hs: Members in the household

  • Multi-variable
  • Probabilistic
  • For the private sector (buildings)
  • Transferable in location and scale
  • Predictions also with incomplete

data

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39 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Model data sources

Focus areas FDM

  • Building location
  • Building type

Open Building Maps

  • Contamination
  • Household size
  • Precaution

Not yet available

  • Water depth
  • Duration (>10cm

inundation depth)

Hydraulic Model

  • European Asset

Map

  • Assets per building

Asset Values

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40 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Budapest

Absolute Loss: 100 year flood

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41 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

https://floodloss-monitor.limequery.org/512174?lang=hu

Data collection

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42 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

https://floodloss-monitor.limequery.org/512174?lang=hu

Data collection

Survey active since 09/2018 43 surveys (39 partial / 4 total)

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43 A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co

Outlook

  • 1.5 years left for feedback and improvements
  • Full implementation in OASIS LMF
  • Continuous validation with insurance
  • All model outputs available on OASIS Hub
  • So far only subsets available
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Get in touch

PIK Potsdam: wortmann@pik-potsdam.de, hattermann@pik-potsdam.de GFZ Potsdam: kai.schroeter@gfz-potsdam.de, max.steinhausen@gfz-potsdamd.de DTU Copenhagen: mard@dtu.dk Publication: Hattermann et al. 2018. Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model. Climate Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001 Oasis-HUB: https://oasishub.co/organization/gfz-potsdam https://oasishub.co/organization/pik