Climate Change effects on hydropower plants in the Upper Danube watershed F. Koch 1 , H. Bach 2 , A. Reiter 1 & W. Mauser 1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing WG of the BMBF-project GLOWA-Danube 1 Department of Geography, University of Munich (LMU), Germany 2 VISTA Remote Sensing in Geosciences GmbH, Munich, Germany M S W F Hydropredict 2010, Prague 1 21.09.2010
A Regional Scale River Basin Upper Danube Basin: • Area: 77 .000 km² • Population: 11 Mio. • Elevation Gradient: 3.600 m Hydropredict 2010, Prague 2 21.09.2010
Routing • runoff concentration • ground water flow • lake retention • reservoir management • water transfers Hydropredict 2010, Prague 3 21.09.2010
Hydropower Plants maximum capacity > 5 MW ~ 120 runoff-river power plants ~ 20 reservoir hydropower plants runoff-river power plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir hydropower plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir Hydropredict 2010, Prague 4 21.09.2010
Hydropower Module Capacity: P = η * ρ * Q * g * H [kW] runoff-river power plant reservoir hydropower plant Parameters: hydraulic height, maximum capacity, maximum turbine discharge, efficiency Hydropredict 2010, Prague 5 21.09.2010
Hydropower generation vs. discharge Example: runoff-river power plant Vohburg, Danube (1995) Hydropredict 2010, Prague 6 21.09.2010
Validation hydropower generation Hydropredict 2010, Prague 7 21.09.2010
GLOWA-Danube climate scenarios Selection 1: Selection 2: climate trends climate variants Baseline IPCC regional 16 different REMO regional 5 warm winters x = climate scenarios MM5 regional 5 hot summers Extrapolation 5 dry years Hydropredict 2010, Prague 8 21.09.2010
Development of hydropower generation in the Upper Danube watershed 2011 – 2035: Baseline: - 1,8% REMO 2036 – 2060: - 11,3% regional x 2021 – 2025: 5 dry years: - 17,1% Hydropredict 2010, Prague 9 21.09.2010
Regional differences 2036 – 2060 Reduction of hydro- Reference power generation [%] time period: 1971 – 2000 Danube Isar Iller Lech Salzach Inn climate scenario: REMO regional – Baseline Hydropredict 2010, Prague 10 21.09.2010
Conclusions • Hydropower generation is expected to decrease in the next decades • Strong influence of dry years • Regional differences based on future low-flow conditions and the snow & ice storage • Changes of the runoff regime will also influence the inter-annual hydropower generation • Development, analysis and evaluation of scenarios and adaption strategies in cooperation with Stakeholders, e.g. hydropower plant operators Hydropredict 2010, Prague 11 21.09.2010
Thank you very much for your attention! www.glowa-danube.de www.vista-geo.de http://www.christianengl.de/Schlegeisspeicher.jpg Hydropredict 2010, Prague 12 21.09.2010
Hydropredict 2010, Prague 13 21.09.2010
Hydropower Plants maximum capacity > 5 MW hydropower generation runoff-river ~ 120 runoff-river power plants power plants ~ 20 reservoir hydropower plants runoff-river power plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir hydropower plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir Hydropredict 2010, Prague 14 21.09.2010
Validation runoff 2000 R² hourly discharge Slope NSC Hofkirchen 1.11 0.87 0.81 ----- measured Dillingen 1.13 0.84 0.72 1600 ----- simulated daily average runoff, based on the time period 1971-2003 (Mauser & Bach 2009) discharge [m³/s] 1200 800 Hofkirchen 400 Dillingen 0 1.8.95 15.8.95 29.8.95 12.9.95 26.9.95 10.10.95 24.10.95 7.11.95 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 15 21.09.2010
Low-flow conditions 2036 – 2060 Development of the Reference low-flow situation [%] time period: 1971 – 2000 more drastic less drastic climate scenario: REMO regional – Baseline Hydropredict 2010, Prague 16 21.09.2010
Seasonal development Discharge (outlet Achleiten) precipitation precipitation [mm] discharge [m³/s] discharge maximum is shifted from summer to spring climate scenario: smoother annual hydrograph REMO regional – Baseline Influence on inter-annual hydropower generation Hydropredict 2010, Prague 17 21.09.2010
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