Climate Change effects on hydropower plants in the Upper Danube - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change effects on hydropower plants in the Upper Danube watershed F. Koch 1 , H. Bach 2 , A. Reiter 1 & W. Mauser 1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing WG of the BMBF-project GLOWA-Danube 1 Department of Geography, University of Munich

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 1

Climate Change effects on hydropower plants in the Upper Danube watershed

F. Koch1, H. Bach2, A. Reiter1 & W. Mauser1

Hydrology and Remote Sensing WG of the BMBF-project GLOWA-Danube

1 Department of Geography, University of Munich (LMU), Germany 2 VISTA Remote Sensing in Geosciences GmbH, Munich, Germany

M S W F

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 2

A Regional Scale River Basin

Upper Danube Basin:

Area: 77.000 km²
Population: 11 Mio.
Elevation Gradient: 3.600 m

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 3

Routing

runoff concentration
ground water flow
lake retention
reservoir management
water transfers

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 4

Hydropower Plants

maximum capacity > 5 MW ~ 120 runoff-river power plants ~ 20 reservoir hydropower plants

runoff-river power plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir hydropower plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 5

Hydropower Module

Capacity: P = η * ρ * Q * g * H [kW] runoff-river power plant reservoir hydropower plant Parameters: hydraulic height, maximum capacity, maximum turbine discharge, efficiency

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 6

Hydropower generation vs. discharge

Example: runoff-river power plant Vohburg, Danube (1995)

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 7

Validation hydropower generation

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 8

GLOWA-Danube climate scenarios

Selection 1: climate trends Selection 2: climate variants REMO regional Extrapolation Baseline 5 warm winters 5 hot summers 5 dry years IPCC regional MM5 regional 16 different climate scenarios

x =

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 9

Development of hydropower generation in the Upper Danube watershed

Baseline: 2011 – 2035:

1,8%

2036 – 2060:

11,3%

5 dry years: 2021 – 2025:

17,1%

REMO regional x

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 10

Regional differences

Reduction of hydro- power generation [%] 2036 – 2060

Reference time period: 1971 – 2000

Iller Inn Lech Isar Danube Salzach climate scenario: REMO regional – Baseline

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 11

Conclusions

Hydropower generation is expected to decrease in the

next decades

Strong influence of dry years
Regional differences based on future low-flow

conditions and the snow & ice storage

Changes of the runoff regime will also influence the

inter-annual hydropower generation

Development, analysis and evaluation of scenarios

and adaption strategies in cooperation with Stakeholders, e.g. hydropower plant operators

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 12

Thank you very much for your attention!

http://www.christianengl.de/Schlegeisspeicher.jpg

www.glowa-danube.de www.vista-geo.de

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 13

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 14

Hydropower Plants

maximum capacity > 5 MW ~ 120 runoff-river power plants ~ 20 reservoir hydropower plants

runoff-river power plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir hydropower plant hydropower generation [GWh] reservoir

runoff-river power plants

hydropower generation

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 15

Validation runoff

400 800 1200 1600 2000 1.8.95 15.8.95 29.8.95 12.9.95 26.9.95 10.10.95 24.10.95 7.11.95

discharge [m³/s]

Hofkirchen Dillingen hourly discharge

---- measured
---- simulated

Slope R² NSC Hofkirchen 1.11 0.87 0.81 Dillingen 1.13 0.84 0.72 daily average runoff, based on the time period 1971-2003 (Mauser & Bach 2009)

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 16

Low-flow conditions

2036 – 2060

Reference time period: 1971 – 2000

 more drastic  less drastic

Development of the low-flow situation [%]

climate scenario: REMO regional – Baseline

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21.09.2010 Hydropredict 2010, Prague 17

Seasonal development

discharge maximum is shifted from summer to spring smoother annual hydrograph Influence on inter-annual hydropower generation

Discharge (outlet Achleiten) precipitation

climate scenario: REMO regional – Baseline

discharge [m³/s] precipitation [mm]