FULL YEAR RESULTS PRESENTATION
TO 30TH NOVEMBER 2015
FULL YEAR RESULTS TO 30 TH NOVEMBER 2015 PRESENTATION Agenda 1. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
FULL YEAR RESULTS TO 30 TH NOVEMBER 2015 PRESENTATION Agenda 1. Highlights 2. Financial Results 3. Operational Review 4. Outlook Comparative information: 1. During the period we were required to adopt IFRS 10 Consolidated Financial
TO 30TH NOVEMBER 2015
1. Highlights 2. Financial Results 3. Operational Review 4. Outlook
Comparative information: 1. During the period we were required to adopt IFRS 10 Consolidated Financial Statements. This requires that we change the basis of accounting for VSM Estates (Holdings) Ltd from consolidation to equity accounting. Comparative information has been restated accordingly. 2. During the period, further consideration was given to the revenue streams associated with the first two phases of student accommodation at the Bay Campus, Swansea University. It has been concluded that the transaction with M&G for 50% of income associated with this accommodation is more appropriately accounted for as a finance lease arrangement, rather than the sale of 50% of the assets. To reflect this, our 2014 results have been restated. Further detail on restatements is included in the Appendix. Disclaimer
This presentation does not contain or constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any shares in St. Modwen Properties PLC or other securities and should not be relied on for such purposes. This presentation may contain certain forward looking statements. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and
Any forward looking statements made by or on behalf of St. Modwen Properties PLC speak only as of the date they are made and no representation or warranty is given in relation to them, including as to their completeness or accuracy or the basis on which they were prepared. St. Modwen Properties PLC does not undertake to update forward looking statements to reflect any changes in St. Modwen Properties PLC's expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. Statements are made in this presentation about the price and past performance of shares in St. Modwen Properties PLC. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance.
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Financial
(2014: £135m)
325p) and EPRA NAV per share up 30% to 446p (2014: 342p)
£127m to net valuation increase of £202m (2014: £94m)
5.75p per share (2014: 4.6p per share) Operational
− NCGM – unconditional status achieved in H1, now reflected on balance sheet. Procurement of new market gaining momentum marking step forward to vacant possession of first 10 acres − Bay Campus, Swansea University – opened in September 2015 to 917 new students. Next phase opened in January 2016 and third phase started on site bringing total number of rooms to 2,000 by 2017 − Longbridge – 150,000 sq ft Marks & Spencer store and Phase 2 of Town Centre now open and trading
continues to deliver strong flow of profits
to £29m (up 21%) (2014: £24m)
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gain to £202m (2014: £94m)
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6 Year ended 30 November 2015 £m Year ended 30 November 2014 £m
Net Rental Income
38.7 37.1
Property Profits
67.4 51.3
Other Income
4.2 3.6
Overheads
(26.5) (23.2)
Operating Profit
83.8 (+22%) 68.8
Interest
(20.5) (23.1)
Trading Profit
63.3 (+39%) 45.7
Added Value Valuation Gains
38.6 35.9
NCGM Valuation Gain
127.4
35.7 57.6
Other Finance Charges
(6.6) (3.8)
Profit Before All Tax
258.4 (+91%) 135.4
Earnings per share
97.9p 53.8p
NOTE: the above figures are stated on a proportionally consolidated basis, including our share of JVs
total portfolio):
typically covers the running costs of the business
£43m (2014: £41m) and driven by retained developments (Bay Campus for Swansea University and Longbridge Town Centre Phase 2) and new assets (Kirkby Town Centre), adding £9m of annualised net rental income
£58m (2014: £45m)
equivalent yield of 7.7% (2014: 8.9%) on income producing properties
Increasing net rental income and other income £m
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19.3 19.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 38.7 39.0 39.2 40.7 42.9
10 20 30 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 HY FY
38.7 39.0 39.2 40.7 42.9 41.2 42.5 45.7 46.3 47.0
10 20 30 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Income Producing Portfolio Business Running Costs
Coverage of business running costs £m
6 9 24 29 10 5 4 23 19 22 34 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2012 2013 2014 2015
Commercial Swansea University, Bay Campus Housebuilding
51 29 67 38
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pipeline converting into record profits
projects reached:
University opened in September 2015
Longbridge Town Centre
housebuilding profits
£m
E&C=£10m Commercial=£9m
*
*Profits for Swansea University are now recorded both in Development Profits and Revaluations
NCGM
6 19 22 22 17 17
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2013 2014 2015
Active management: Residential land Active management: Income producing and commercial land
£m
Active management valuation increases
£m 9
20 38 20 16
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
Market value gains
127
30 Nov 2015 £m 30 Nov 2014 £m
Property assets
1,265 1,058
Investments in JVs and other assets
232 134
Debtors
112 72
Pensions
1,609 1,264
Net borrowings
(443) (337)
Finance leases
(55) (23)
Trade payable etc.
(189) (180)
Gross liabilities
(687) (540)
Net assets
922 724
Non-controlling interests
(7) (6)
Shareholders’ funds
915 718
NAV per share
414 (+27%) 325p
EPRA NAV per share
446 (+30%) 342p
10
Nov 2014 Nov 2015 NAV per share 325p 414p EPRA NAV per share 342p 446p
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718 43 (47) 67 39 127 36 (11) (57) 915
500 600 700 800 900 1000
At Nov 2014 Net rents & other income Overheads & interest Development profit Value added portfolio NCGM Market valuation movement Dividend Tax / other movements At Nov 2015
£m
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250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Nov 2014 Net rents & other income Overheads & interest Tax & net dividends Working capital & finance leases Acquisitions & development expenditure Disposals Nov 2015 (337) 37 (51) (14) 27 (443)
£m
(370) 265
443
100 200 300 400 500 600
2015 2016 Renewal 2017 Renewal 2018 Renewal 2019 Renewal 2020 Renewal 2021 Renewal
£m
….
HSBC Barclays Retail Bond RBS Convertible Bond Santander
….
JV facilities: KPI £85m (St. Modwen share 50% of £68m drawn) Expires 2019 VSM Uxbridge £30m (St. Modwen share 50% of £30m drawn) Expires 2019
99 100 125 80 100 50
Key ratios: Nov Nov
2015 2014
. maturity (years) 3.6 4.6
. interest rate 3.9% 4.8%
48% 47%
30% 31%
111 Headroom Borrowings
13
Note: adjusted gearing is the ratio of net borrowings (at amortised cost and excluding finance leases) to net assets
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19.3 19.8 19.5 20.1 20.7
38.7 39.0 39.2 40.7 42.9
10 20 30 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Secure net rental and other income
£m
HY FY 39 41 33 31 30
25 50 75 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
See-through LTV
%
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− NCGM – works to market progressing well since going unconditional and advancing towards vacant possession of first 10 acres (Nine Elms Square) and we will explore our options to either sell, joint venture or develop the property during 2016 − Bay Campus, Swansea University – opened in September 2015 to 917 new students with next phase of accommodation opened in January 2016 and to be followed by Phase 3 in September 2017, bringing total number of rooms to 2,000. ‘St. Modwen Student Living’ established − Longbridge – second phase of the Town Centre including 150,000 sq ft Marks & Spencer store and other major national retailers now open
214,000 sq ft for Travis Perkins in Whitley, Coventry and 148,000 sq ft of speculative development in Avonmouth, Bristol (50% now let and sold)
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£m Nov 2014 Additions Reductions Updated Portfolio Nov 2015 Residential Land (46%) Residential Portfolio 553 167 (187) 533 2 17 552 NCGM 3 90
220 Commercial Land (9%) 146 86 (77) 155
152 Income Producing (45%) Industrial 248 22 (14) 256 15 5 276 Retail 220 102
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Residential 33 52
1 20 106 Office 61
46 2
1,264 519 (293) 1,490 36 166 1,692
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development – largest part of business by acreage (3,300 acres vs. land bank of 6,000 acres)
development schemes: Longbridge and Avonmouth
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One of three new depots for DPD (UK) totalling 189,000 sq ft
− Sale of 36 acres of land to Jaguar Land Rover and Travis Perkins at Whitley Business Park Coventry (£25.2m) − 90,000 sq ft of speculative development at Letchworth, 100% occupied and now sold − Development of three delivery depots for DPD (UK), totalling 189,000 sq ft at three St. Modwen sites (Exeter, Liverpool and Stoke-on-Trent), all sold in two separate transactions at yields of 5.0% and 5.3%
Number of schemes sq ft % pre-let/ pre-sold Dev Expen- diture £m GDV £m Movement during year Position at 30/11/14 32 2,045,000 62% 136 259 Sold / transferred to investment properties (10) (855,000) Schemes added to the pipeline 11 400,000 Position at 30/11/15 33 1,590,000 51% 114 213 Analysis of position at 30/11/15 Retail 10 305,000 50% 28 64 Industrial 23 1,285,000 52% 86 149 Total 33 1,590,000 51% 114 213
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unconditional in April 2015
(600 affordable) and 100,000 sq ft of office and retail space
summer 2015
anticipated vacant possession of the first 10 (of 19) acres of surplus land (Nine Elms Square)
develop the property during 2016 as we draw closer to vacant possession
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Nine Elms Square, London Acres Private Units Affordable Density/Acre Land Values £m* Nine Elms Square: 10.2 1,821 94 (5%) 188 616 Nine Elms Gardens/Nine . Elms Grove: 8.5 598 506 (46%) 130 27 Total 18.7 2,419 600 (20%) 161 643
* Valuation based on forecast average sale price of £1,325 per sq ft (H1 2015: £1,333 per sq ft) for private residential sales (source: Jones Lang LaSalle)
£643m, based on static residential sales values but impacted by build cost inflation
discount unwind as we move closer to vacant possession and reduced overage
enabling costs and overage remains unchanged from H1 2015 position
after CGMA market liability of £127m 30 Nov 2015 31 May 2015 £m £m
Current value
643 660
Enabling costs and overage
(203) (220) 440 440
Less enabling costs incurred
(1)
(184)
(184) VSM (NCGM) gain
255
256
127
128 21
Progress to date
2015, Phase 2 accommodation opened January 2016
bringing total number of student rooms to 2,000 and providing continued valuation gains
30/11/15 which will grow to £4.5m by 2017
student accommodation and associated facilities Future phases
Hendrefoilan Campus site
commenced in January 2016 representing development expenditure of £32m
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Swansea University, Bay Campus
and occupied, including Town Centre phases and M&S
increase to £4m per annum
building and 180-bed accommodation for the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine for Defence Infrastructure Organisation
scheme of 175 units in 2016, to add to 360 homes already delivered on site
and Waterloo Housing constructing 72 affordable housing units
The new 150,000 sq ft Marks & Spencer store open and trading
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2015 including: Secured 2015 Units Key targets 2016 Units − New Covent Garden Market, London 3,000 − Wolverton, Milton Keynes 375 − Meon Vale, Warwickshire 550 − Taylors Lane, Worcester 255 − Copthorne, Sussex 500 − Leegate, London 229 − Hendrefoilan, Swansea 300 − Sully, Barry, South Wales 200 − Trentham Manor, Stoke-on-Trent 300 − Locking Parklands, Weston-super-Mare 168 − St. Andrew’s Park, Uxbridge 71 − Hilton Valley, Staffordshire 130
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101 239 562 652 15 158 126 258 315
200 400 600 800 1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Persimmon JV
820 365 259 26
Homes continues to perform well with new sites coming on stream for delivery in 2016
per week
967
Legal completions
(+21%)
Persimmon as JV winds down
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6 8 24 29 10 20 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(e)
£m
Residential profits
Homes Persimmon joint venture TOTAL Completed sites 3
Active sites 13 8 21 Pending 2016 5
£m profits to date 32 36 68 Potential St. Modwen share of future development profits (£m) 103 24 127 TOTAL 135 60 195 Units 3,809 2,420 6,229 Units completed to 30/11/15 861 1,554 2,415
residential development
232 251 279 325 414
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shareholders’ Equity NAV
p per share
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Our expertise in remediation, planning, asset development and construction supports our strategy of securing excellent returns through a focus on long-term significant added value while protecting our assets
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£m % £m
Consistent ratio of rental and other income to
interest Property valuation uplifts through active development Improving delivery of property profits
97 92 86 88 91
20 40 60 80 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
33 48 28 36 166
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
24 29 40 51 67
20 40 60 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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1986:
1986 by Redman Heenan International plc and becomes a publicly listed company
1986 - 1990:
programme based on enterprise zones and industrial schemes
1991:
landowners, local authorities and major companies
1997:
K.S.C (KPI) entered into
2000 - 2003:
and Marconi
2005 - 2010:
centre regeneration schemes
Longbridge, Llanwern, Project MoDEL, Coed Darcy and BP Portfolio
2012:
the proposed redevelopment of New Covent Garden Market
2013:
redevelopment of NCGM
University for first phase of its £450m Bay Campus development
2014:
signed with Swansea University to deliver 538 additional student apartments
regeneration of the NCGM sites
2015:
balance sheet
students
M&S store completed and now trading
2016:
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VSM Estates
under SIC 12 due to our greater share of the risks and rewards
basis of joint control
Swansea University
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revenue streams associated with the first two phases of student accommodation at the Bay Campus development for Swansea University
payments to M&G, it has been concluded that the transaction is more appropriately accounted for as a finance lease arrangement, rather than as the sale of 50% of the assets
a finance lease liability. The previous construction contract accounting recognised in respect of the proportion of the development work performed on these sites that was funded by M&G has been eliminated and replaced by revaluation of the whole site during the course of construction
30 Nov 2014 £m unless otherwise stated Previously reported Restated VSM Movement Swansea Movement Profit before all tax 138.1 135.4 (5.7) 3.0 Basic EPS 52.7 53.8
Property Portfolio 1,258.5 1,264.0 (17.2) 22.7 Net Assets 736.5 724.0 (12.8) 0.3 EPRA NAV per share 344p 342p (2p)
334.1 337.4 (3.3)
338.0 360.0 (3.3) (18.7) Gearing 46% 50% (1%) (3%) Adjusted Gearing 45% 47% (2%)
30% 31% (1%)
30 Nov 2015 £m 30 Nov 2014 £m Rent Roll at Start of Period / Year 45.4 44.7 Acquisitions / (Disposals) 2.4 (0.9) 47.8 43.8 Tenant Vacations (4.0) (4.2) Tenant Administrations (0.2)
1.7 0.5 New Lettings 13.1 5.3 Closing Rent Roll 58.4 45.4 Void Percentage 11% 11% Net Rental Income 38.7 37.1 Other Rental Style Income 4.2 3.6 42.9 40.7 Overheads and Interest 47.0 46.3 % Coverage 91% 88%
% 88 87 88 89 89
20 40 60 80 100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Occupancy rates
38
39
Year ended 30 November 2015 £m Year ended 30 November 2014 £m House- building Land & Comm. Property Total House- building Land & Comm. Property Total Net Rental Income
38.7
37.1 Property Profits 29.1 38.3 67.4 24.4 26.9 51.3 Other Income
4.2
3.6 Overheads (5.2) (21.3) (26.5) (5.0) (18.2) (23.2) Operating Profit 23.9 59.9 83.8 19.4 49.4 68.8 Interest (2.0) (18.5) (20.5) (2.4) (20.7) (23.1) Trading Profit 21.9 41.4 63.3 17.0 28.7 45.7 Added Value Property Valuation Gain 166.0 35.9 Market Property Valuation Movement 35.7 57.6 Other Finance Charges (6.6) (3.8) Profit Before All Tax 258.4(+91%) 135.4
Property portfolio by value £1.7bn
Income producing
£768m
Regenerate, manage planning (currently 26,026 plots with planning recognition) and sell Persimmon JV
NCGM Generate income to cover running costs of business Expertise in managing sites to maximise income Commercial assets awaiting redevelopment, manage planning, develop and sell Now includes Income Producing Residential: PRS & St. Modwen Student Living Regenerate, remediate, manage planning, develop and sell land Flagship projects Practical approach
Residential land
£772m
Commercial land and development
£152m
45% 46% 9%
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Yield Analysis (including Group share of JVs) Equivalent Net initial 30 Nov 2015 30 Nov 2014 30 Nov 2015 30 Nov 2014 Industrial 8.4% 8.8% 7.3% 7.7% Retail 7.6% 8.9% 6.1% 7.1% Residential 5.0% N/A 5.0% N/A Office 8.9% 9.2% 6.6% 7.3% Portfolio 7.7% 8.9% 6.5% 7.4%
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Developable acres 2015 2014 2013 Retail 344 342 337 Industrial and Commercial 2,923 2,935 2,997 Residential 2,021 1,954 1,893 Not yet specified 724 642 716 Total developable 6,012 5,873 5,943
Land bank ownership Development timescales
JV 8%
Wholly
68%
Development agreement 24% Within 5 years 15% Within 5-10 years 20%
10+ years 65%
Under management £330m Under management
£343m SMH £53m
Residential land bank
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30 Nov 2015 30 Nov 2014 Acres Plots Acres Plots With planning recognition − Allocated in local plan or similar 107 1,963 92 1,789 − Resolution to grant 123 1,736 397 5,395 − Outline permission 1,104 19,829 891 14,680 − Detailed permission 161 2,498 144 2,022 1,495 26,026 1,524 23,886 No planning recognition
186 2,236 167 2,042
340 4,254 263 2,862 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL LAND 2,021 32,516 1,954 28,790
NOTE: Includes 100% of JVs
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£m unless otherwise stated 30 Nov 2011 30 Nov 2012 30 Nov* 2013 30 Nov* 2014 30 Nov 2015 Rental and other income 38.7 39.0 39.2 40.7 42.9 Property profits 23.8 29.0 37.7 51.3 67.4 Overheads (16.7) (18.6) (20.2) (23.2) (26.5) Interest (23.0) (23.9) (25.1) (23.1) (20.5) Trading profit (before revaluation movements) 22.8 25.5 31.6 45.7 63.3 Net property portfolio (exc. assets under finance leases) 1,102.5 1,098.2 1,124.6 1,244.0 1,638.5 See-through net borrowings 431.6 448.7 367.9 380.2 489.3 See-through LTV 39% 41% 33% 31% 30% Net assets 476.0 513.7 616.6 724.0 921.5 44 £m unless otherwise stated
* Restated
£m* Alstom Group UK Ltd 4.0 Swansea University 2.5 Shanghai Automotive 1.7 Marks & Spencer 1.5 Knorr Bremse SFS 1.5 Paragon Automotive Services Ltd 1.4 Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery Ltd 1.0 Beko PLC 1.0 Arlington Fleet and Retail Group 1.0 Wireless Data Services 0.9 Blue Diamond (UK) Ltd 0.6
* Gross annual rent before minority interest or joint venture accounting
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result of management actions and initiatives e.g.
remediation milestones and improving lease terms
(at amortised cost and excluding finance leases) to net assets
and other income to operating costs
value of property after construction
to-market of derivative financial instruments and
share of joint ventures and associates)
interest
and controlled by the Group together with joint ventures and associates
finance leases at amortised cost) less cash and cash equivalents
less cash and cash equivalents
less non-recoverable property costs for the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates)
(ERV) attributable to vacant units as a proportion
ventures and associates). ERV is determined by the Group’s external valuers
Administrative expenses plus net finance costs (excluding the mark-to-market of derivative financial instruments and other non-cash items) for the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates)
generated from the operating assets of the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates)
profits and other income for the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates)
arrangement with Persimmon to develop residential units on agreed sites within the St. Modwen land bank
inventories of the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates) comprising income producing properties together with residential and commercial land
deduction of net realisable value provisions) plus gains on disposals of investments/ investment properties for the Group (including its share of joint ventures and associates)
lease term to the first tenant break
net borrowings to the property portfolio on a proportional consolidated basis (including Group share of joint venture and associates)
costs
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