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Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Front Cover

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Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

EXPLOITING SIMULATION METHODS TO EVALUATE WHOLE-LIFE COST RISKS

Presentation to SCAF 24 November 2009 Colin Smith – Principal WLC Consultant

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Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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“the Ministry of Defence has a substantially overheated equipment

programme, with too many types of equipment being ordered for too large a range of tasks at too high a specification. This programme is unaffordable on any likely projection of future budgets…….” “……Unfortunately the current system is not able to flush out at an early stage the real costs of this equipment, nor does it make effective prioritisation or rationalisation decisions”

(Review of Acquisition for the Secretary of State for Defence – Gray Report)

Affordability as a function of Planning (1): Why Worry ?

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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► Projects do not have access to limitless funds. This means

that TLCM must consider affordability vs capability from the earliest stages of the lifecycle.

► The MOD must also be able to make informed and justified

decisions regarding capability vs budget.

► The result is that a compromise must be reached between

the available budget ……. and the capability that can be procured and sustained for the required system life-cycle.

Affordability as a function of Planning (1): Designing for Affordability

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Affordability as a function of Planning (2): Designing for Affordability

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Recognising the constraints on WLCM (1): What limits the value of WLCM ?

► WLCM is often limited in value because it must: ► Deliver accurate forecasts of budgeted costs when

the least information is known

► Support trade-off and down-selection of options

when it is not possible or cost-effective to build a system/process in order to evaluate them

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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WLC Decisions Need to be Made Early in the Programme

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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WLCM is Typically Used to Enable Trade-Off Decisions

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Simulation will help to reduce decision costs/time

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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► Simulation Modelling enables evaluation of trade-space

through:

► Handling of complex interactions for defined scenarios and

Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) (e.g.)

► Simple mission reliability/availability ► Multiple or multi-cycle operations ► Variation in fielding approaches and availability of assets on

cost accrual

► End-To-End (E2E) Logistics Support chain evaluation ► Efficiency of specific Maintenance or Production processes ► Evaluation of service provision metrics and performance

achievements

► Through-Life, Cross–Defence Line of Development (DLoD)

influences on the capability

► Through-life cost accrual for WLC modelling ► Sensitivity of DLoD drivers on the system

Simulation Enables Multiple Scenario Modelling

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Simulation Can Evaluate Complex Systems at Low Expense

OEMs PEP Store DSP Store Force HQ

UK MOB

TRANSPORT TO POE JFHQ

LEVEL 1 REPAIR FACILITY

MOVE PEP FORWARD ON DEMAND MOVE DSP FORWARD ON DEMAND

LEVEL 2 REPAIR FACILITY

Vendors Service Suppliers PURPLE GATE WARNING ORDER ISSUED

READINESS REPORTS

APOD/SPOD SEA BRIDGE AIR BRIDGE

FOB

THEATRE HQ/CO Force ES (Battn/Coy) GS Coy FRTs

LADs

BG Deployed PEP DSP In- Theatre Communications link Move to Engage

Move to FOB

A1,A2,B SPARES

SUPPLY/RETURN GPS Store

POTENTIAL SCOPE OF SUPPORT

LEVEL 3/4 REPAIR FACILITY

WFM Storage GENERATE FORCE BALANCE SOSI

UK Support Environment In-Theatre Support

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

► End-To-End Simulation of the

Joint Supply Chain to elicit:

► Supply Chain Inefficiencies ► Potential Resource

Limitations/ Opportunities

► Long Term Ao of

Capabilities

► Support Cost Drivers

Identification

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Enabling rapid understanding of where costs/risks are driven

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

Quickly focus on areas where risks become evident

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More Spares ? Improve Flow ? More Personnel ? Control Usage ?

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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► Generating common understanding of the support chain

as it specifically applies to a project

► Rapidly evaluating multiple scenarios to elicit key drivers

– reducing the time necessary to identify trade-off candidates and options for down-selection

► Reducing the cost of assessing project risk by being able

to represent the system conceptually rather than having to build it in reality to test it. Reducing The Risks Inherent In Project/Program Planning

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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► Affordable TLCM depends upon an evolving assessment

• f cost risk vs capability delivered over time

► Assessment of WLC, as it relates to TLCM, is complex

and difficult to achieve with deterministic methods and models

► Simulation modelling has shown great potential to

deliver a flexible and scalable response to the evident modelling challenges

► Simulation tools, appropriately applied, will stretch the

boundaries of TLCM assessment and help to reduce project cost, performance and timescale risks

Summary

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

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Contents

► Introduction: Affordability as a function of planning ► Recognising the constraints on WLCM ► How simulation can help ► Summary ► Questions

Investment Decision Support through rigorous cost analysis across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs)

Delivering Capability in Defence and Aerospace

Questions ?

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