Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference 30 January, 2020 Todays - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference

30 January, 2020

JOHAN MENCKEL CEO

Since: 2012 Gränges since: 2004

OSKAR HELLSTRÖM CFO

Since: 2011

2

Today’s presenters

Fourth quarter 2019 Strong growth platform established in a weaker quarter

3

○ Execution on growth strategy

– Acquisition of Aluminium Konin – Expansion of Huntingdon facility completed

○ Continued soft market conditions ○ Reduced sales volume and operating profit

– Sales volume declined by 11% – Adjusted operating profit SEK 144 million

○ Strong cash generation

– Adj. cash flow before financing SEK 191 million

○ Increased dividend

– Dividend proposed at SEK 3.40 per share

4

○ Acquisition of Aluminium Konin for

SEK 2.3 billion, or 6.9x EBITDA

○ New capabilities, new market niches,

and realization of synergies

○ 100 ktonnes capacity available as of

closing and additional 40 ktonnes available from 2022

○ Completion subject to customary

approval from competition authorities

○ Closing expected in Q2 2020

The acquisition of Aluminium Konin will add capabilities and strengthen Gränges’ positions in new niche markets

Aluminium Konin Konin, Poland

5

Expansion of Huntingdon facility completed – good progress for Newport and Finspång projects

5

Newport, AR Huntingdon, TN Finspång, Sweden Newport

○ To be completed in 2020 ○ Investment of USD 26

million in upgrading mills and equipment

○ 20 ktonnes capacity for light

gauge foil available by end

• f 2020

Finspång

○ To be completed in 2021 ○ Investment of SEK 400

million to improve site logistics and environmental footprint

○ 20 ktonnes of new capacity

from 2022 Huntingdon

○ Completed in Q4 2019 ○ Investment of USD 110

million to add capacity and capabilities

○ 40 ktonnes of new capacity

is being ramped up during 2020

Light vehicle production decreased by 5% while HVAC shipments increased by 2% in the fourth quarter

6

End market production growth (YoY)

Source: Automotive light vehicle production - IHS Automotive, December 2019 HVAC unit shipments - AHRI, January 2020

End market Automotive HVAC Region Global Asia Europe Americas Americas Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Full year 2020

• 5%
• 3%
• 8%
• 2%

+2% +4%

• 1%

+3%

• 5%
• 8%
• 6%

±0%

• 6%

±0%

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Sales volume decreased by 11% in the fourth quarter due to lower market demand and customer destocking

Gränges sales volume (ktonnes)

Automotive HVAC & Other

Asia Europe Americas Gränges Group

8.5 6.9 43.8 39.1 52.2 46.0 2018 2019 19.9 20.4 2018 2019 43.7 38.8 43.8 39.1 87.4 77.9 2018 2019 15.3 11.5 2018 2019 ○ Increased sales volume for automotive materials primarily driven by increased demand from Chinese customers ○ Decreased demand for automotive materials due to lower vehicle production and continued destocking ○ Significant customer destocking activities for both automotive and HVAC materials before the end of the year ○ Automotive sales decreased by 11% ○ HVAC & Other sales decreased by 11%

• 25%
• 12%
• 11%

+2%

Full year 2019 performance reflects challenging market conditions and material expansion investments

Target: above market Growth

• 7%

1

Target: 15–20% ROCE

11.7%

Target: 1.0–2.0 times Net debt over adjusted EBITDA

2.6

Target: 30–50%

• f net profit

Dividend

SEK

3.40

2

43%

(1) Sales volume growth in 2019 (2) The Board of Director’s proposal for the 2020 Annual General Meeting 8

Good progress within sustainability in 2019

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○ Implementation of Gränges’ sustainability

framework, with clear long-term targets

○ Member of the Aluminium Stewardship

Initiative (ASI) and certification of the Shanghai site

○ Good progress on sustainability priorities:

– Improved safety accident rate – Increased share of recycled aluminium – Reduced carbon emissions from purchased materials – Intensified development of broader and more sustainable customer offerings

10

Lower sales volume and adjusted operating profit for fourth quarter and full year 2019

Sales volume and adjusted operating profit

209 362 371 463 541 687 933 1005 866 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 100 200 300 400 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales volume (ktonnes) Sales volume Adjusted operating profit 2.5 1.4 3.2 1.8 1 2 3 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Adjusted operating profit per tonne (kSEK) Gränges Group Automotive HVAC & Other

Adjusted operating profit per tonne

Adjusted operating profit (SEK million)

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Financial overview – fourth quarter 2019

SEK million Q4 January - December 2019 2018 Change 2019 2018 Change Sales volume (ktonnes) 77.9 87.4

• 10.9%

347.3 375.0

• 7.4%

Net sales 2,682 3,074

• 12.7%

11,978 12,910

• 7.2%

Adjusted operating profit1 144 191

• 24.5%

866 1,005

• 13.8%

Adjusted operating margin (%) 5.4 6.2

• 0.8 ppt

7.2 7.8

• 0.6 ppt

Adjusted operating profit per tonne (kSEK) 1.9 2.2

• 0.3

2.5 2.7

• 0.2

Operating profit 115 191

• 40.1%

836 940

• 11.1%

Profit for the period 47 149

• 68.1%

600 688

• 12.8%

Earnings per share2 (SEK) 0.63 1.97

• 1.34

7.95 9.11

• 1.16
• Adj. cash flow before financing activities3

191 316

• 40%

1,048 977 7.3% Return on capital employed, R12 (%) 11.7 16.5

• 4.8 ppt

Net debt / adjusted EBITDA, R12 2.6 1.8

(1) Adjusted for items affecting comparability (2) Diluted (3) Adjusted for expansion investments and acquisitions

• 3,606

269 84

• 64
• 98
• 123

73

• 3,465
• 4,000
• 3,500
• 3,000
• 2,500
• 2,000

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Net debt reduced to SEK 3.5 billion in the fourth quarter

Change in net debt

Net debt 30 Sep 2019 Adjusted EBITDA Change in working capital Other

• perating

items Maintenance investments Expansion investments & acquisitions FX &

• ther

Net debt 31 Dec 2019

Net debt over adjusted R12 EBITDA

SEK million Adjusted cash flow before financing SEK 191 million 2.7 2.6

Note: Net Debt over adjusted R12 EBITDA excluding impact from IFRS 16 Leases (31 Dec, 2019) = 2.5

Continued strong cash generation in 2019

Adjusted operating profit to cash flow before financing conversion1

Adjusted operating profit and cash flow before financing (SEK million) 111% 121% 129% 112% 81% 70% 100% 121% 0% 50% 100% 150% 500 1000 1500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Cash conversion (%) Cash flow before financing1 Cash conversion Adjusted operating profit

(1) Cash flow before financing activities excluding cash flow from non-maintenance investments and acquisitions. 13

Outlook - first quarter 2020

○ IHS estimates that global light vehicle production

will decrease by 5% in the first quarter

○ Gränges expects the sales volume to decline by

low single digits in the first quarter – Low-double digit decline for automotive materials on global level – Mid to high-single digit growth for HVAC & Other materials in Americas

○ End-market mix change expected to have a

negative impact on profitability

○ Outbreak of coronavirus in China may pose a

downside risk to the outlook

14 Source: IHS Automotive, December 2019

Summary - fourth quarter 2019

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○ Execution on growth strategy ○ Continued soft market conditions ○ Reduced sales volume and operating profit ○ Strong cash generation ○ Increased dividend

Q&A

Johan Menckel, CEO Oskar Hellström, CFO