for Sustainable Development arnulf gruebler@iiasa.ac.at IIT Bombay, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Technological Innovations for Sustainable Development arnulf gruebler@iiasa.ac.at IIT Bombay, January 22, 2018 101 of Technological Change Technological change is a process involving multiple steps and feedbacks Uncertainty pervasive at

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Technological Innovations for Sustainable Development

arnulf gruebler@iiasa.ac.at IIT Bombay, January 22, 2018

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101 of Technological Change

  • Technological change is a process involving

multiple steps and feedbacks

  • Uncertainty pervasive at all stages of tech life cycle
  • Technology = combination of disembodied and embodied
  • knowledge. Embodied TC only via (costly) investments.

Learning by technology users AND producers

  • Technology System = Hardware + Software + “Orgware”
  • Significant costs downstream “R” (research):

Development dominates “R&D”, Deployment investments dominate R&DD

  • “Value” of technology increases downstream also:

Value of patent < private RoR < social RoR of innovation

RoR = Rate of Return = Return on Investment

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The “black box” of Technology

Basic R&D Applied R&D Demon- stration Niche markets Diffusion

Product / Technology Push Market / Demand Pull

Learning feedbacks

Public Sector Private Sector

Disembodied Technology (Knowledge) Embodied Technology (plant, equipment,..)

funding funding

incentives, standards, regulation, subsidies, taxes investments, knowledge and market spillovers

Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

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ETIS – Energy Technology Innovation Systems

Grubler, A., F. Aguayo, K. Gallagher, M. Hekkert, K. Jiang, L. Mytelka, L. Neij, G. Nemet and C. Wilson: 2012, Chapter 24 - Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS). In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1665-1744.

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ETIS – Innovation Inputs – Outputs - Outcomes

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Innovations for Sustainable Development

  • Equitable access & benefits:

Harnessing “granularity”

  • “Dematerialization”: Digitalization, ITC

convergence, sharing economy

  • Efficiency of resource use
  • Towards zero emissions
  • A Roadmap to SD:

The Low Energy Demand (LED) Scenario

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20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 Cumulative percent of global access/owenership Cumulative percent of global population/households

Access to Technologies & Services

(Lorenz Curves)

Technologies & Infrastructures

cell phones 2014 radios 2000 bicycles 2014 automobiles 2013 piped water 2012 electricity 2005 broadband 2014

Granularity Equity

0.11 0.21

2014

0.17 0.43 0.77 0.89 0.88

2000

0.58 GDP

PPP & MER

piped water 2012 electricity 2005 broadband 2014

Source: Zimm & Grubler (in preparation)

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lumpy large unit size high unit cost indivisible high risk granular small unit size low unit cost modular low risk

Technology Unit Size

Source: Grubler ESA class material

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y =

  • 0.02ln(x)

+ 0.0822 R² = 0.33179

  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 De-scaled Learning Rate (Cumula ve Number

  • f

Units) Average Unit Size (MW)

'De-scaled' Learning Rates (per doubling

  • f

cumula ve numbers

  • f

units)

Healey, S. (2015). Separating Economies of Scale and Learning Effects in Technology Cost Improvements. IR-15-009. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

smaller units

  • > more units
  • > more
  • pportunities to

experiment

  • > more

learning

Granularity Benefits 2

Higher Learning with Smaller Unit Scale After Accounting for Economies of Scale

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5 Watt 2.2 Watt

449 Watt

Power consumption 72 Watt Stand-by

=

Resource Impact of ICT Convergence: ex. Energy Hardware to Software/”Orgware” Convergence

Source: Grubler et al, 2018 (submitted)

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Efficiency Cascade of Resource Use (Production AND Consumption): <10%!

Example Energy (all uses, exergy efficiency) and Water (irrigated agriculture & food) Water Crop Food Diet

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World – Primary Energy Substitution

Traditional Biomass Δt = -140 yrs Coal Δt = +140 yrs Modern Energy Carriers Δt = +70 yrs Δt = -70 yrs

Source: updated (BP, 2016) from www.EnergyPrimer.org

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World – Primary Energy Substitution

Traditional Biomass Δt = -140 yrs Coal Δt = +140 yrs Modern Energy Carriers Δt = +70 yrs

Begin of energy policy focus: Frozen structural change Source: updated (BP, 2016) from www.EnergyPrimer.org

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Transitions in Primary Energy Inputs:

Fractional Shares C→ H → e Frontier : India C 25% : 52% e 30% : 6%

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

USA India China India China USA India China USA

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% Shares of Carbon → Hydrogen → Electrons

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

USA USA USA China China China India India India

Transitions in Energy Outputs (Useful Energy)

% UE delivered by C → H → e Frontier : India C 25% : 43% e 30% : 26%

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Integration of SDGs via Goal 12 (“Efficiency”) Addresses 12 SDGs

Responsible Consumption & Production: End poverty, reduce overconsumption, minimize waste, and environmental impacts

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quality

  • f life

urbanisation novel energy services information innovation end-user roles

granularity decentralised service provision rapid transformation use value from services digitalisation

  • f daily life

LED scenario

  • uter circle =
  • bservable drivers
  • f long-term change

the Low Energy Demand (LED) Scenario inner circle = additional elements in scenario narrative

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LED Highlights

  • Higher levels of energy services

than even GEA High

  • Assuring “decent standards of living” for all

(well above access and poverty thresholds)

  • (technological & service) efficiency driven “Peak” Energy
  • Lowest demand scenario (<250 EJ FE by 2050) ever

published

  • End-use transformations (efficiency, electrification) drive

upstream decarbonization

  • Stays below 1.5 with no negative emission technologies
  • Significant SDG synergies (>6 SDGs)
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TNT Web Resources

Data:

  • Scenario DBs (with ENE):

IIASA GGI, GEA, IPCC-RCPs-SSPs

…..http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ggi/GgiDb ..http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb

  • Energy & CO2 inventories & uncertainties

…...http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Energy_Carbon_DataBase

  • Historical energy & development

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/PFUDB.en.html

  • Historical technology data

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~gruebler/data.htm http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Scaling_Dynamics_of_Energy_Technologies

Innovation Case Studies:

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/CaseStudy_home.en.html

Models:

  • LSM Technological Growth & Substitution

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Software/LSM2