Florida Votes 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManus University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
florida votes 2016
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Florida Votes 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManus University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 17, 2023 176 likes •976 views

Florida Votes 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManus University of South Florida, Tampa Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates Election Workshop Orlando, FL January 12, 2017

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Florida Votes 2016

  • Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManus

University of South Florida, Tampa

  • Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs

Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates Election Workshop Orlando, FL January 12, 2017 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

slide-2
SLIDE 2
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Predictions Wrong The view on November 7, 2016

Sabato’s Crystal Ball RealClearPolitics

Clinton: 322 Clinton: 272 Trump: 216 Trump: 266

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Electoral College Result

Trump: 304 Clinton: 227

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Republican share of vote increased heavily In large portions of the country

USA Today, November 9, 2016

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Obama 50.0% Romney 49.1% Turnout: 72% Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7% Turnout: 49% Scott 48.2% Crist 47.1% Turnout: 50% Trump 49.0% Clinton 47.8% Turnout: 74%

Gubernatorial Presidential

1%!

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Florida: Premier Battleground State

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Media Market Definitions

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Clinton Underperformed Obama in Every Media Market but Miami

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Clinton improved DEM margin in 2 markets, Trump improved REP margin in 8 markets

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Voter Turnout Up in Seven Media Markets; Down in Three

slide-13
SLIDE 13
slide-14
SLIDE 14

Trump Carried the I-4 Corridor by a Comfortable Margin

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Who Voted and How?

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Clinton’s private emails ‘bothered’ 2/3 of FL voters

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Trump’s treatment of women ‘bothered’ 2/3 of FL voters

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-19
SLIDE 19

After initial doubts, both candidates held on to their party bases; Independents broke for Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Highest Third-Party Candidate Support

Demographics:

  • Younger than 40
  • Men more than women
  • Independents
  • Religiously unaffiliated (‘secular’)

Candidate Qualities:

  • See both candidates unfavorably
  • Believe that neither candidate is honest,

qualified, or has the right temperament

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Female vote more divided than projected

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Gender Gap: FL

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Hispanics & Blacks larger share of electorate, but less cohesive than in 2012

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Diversity within the Hispanic vote: Cuban vote leaned Trump, 26% of Other Latinos go for Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Younger voters less solidly for Clinton than Obama in ‘08 or ‘12

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Religion in Florida (Pew)

Religious Group U.S. Florida (%) (%) Christian 71 70 Evangelical Protestants 25 24 Mainline Protestants 15 14 Historically Black Protestants 7 8 Catholic 21 21 Non-Christian Faiths 6 6 Jewish 2 3 Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, other <1 <1 Unaffiliated (“no religion,” secular) 23 24

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Christian voters supported Trump; Other religions and ‘seculars’ went for Clinton

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Rural and Suburban vote critical to Trump Victory

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Urban-Suburban-Rural Split

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Top Election Issues

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Economy and Terrorism Topping Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race

Issue % Extremely/Very Important – The Economy 92 – Employment and Jobs 89 – Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87 – Education 86 – Healthcare and ACA 83

Gallup Poll, May 18-22, 2016, of 1,530 U.S. adults. Margin of error ±3%

Issue % Very Important – The Economy 84 – Terrorism 80 – Foreign Policy 75 – Health Care 74 – Gun Policy 72 – Immigration 70

Survey date: June 15-26, 2016

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Economy and Terrorism Topped FL Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-37
SLIDE 37

A Look at Florida Incomes

  • Median Salary in Florida: $28,236
  • Average Salary in Florida: $39,099
  • 65% of Florida workers earn less than

the average salary

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Florida’s Shrinking Middle Class

Change, Average Share of Class 2009-2014 Income Households

Upper +8.1% $118,847 18.9% Middle

  • 3.5% $39,275

49.1% Lower +1.1% $12,098 32.0%

slide-39
SLIDE 39
slide-40
SLIDE 40

FL Voters who feel financially stagnant

  • r worse off sided with Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Most FL voters have negative opinion of condition of national economy, 2/3 sided with Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Americans Distrustful of Govt.

slide-43
SLIDE 43

73% of FL voters have negative view

  • f federal government; most voted

for Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Nearly half of FL voters believe Obamacare ‘went too far,’ 77% voted for Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Racial equity views differ for Clinton and Trump supporters

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Clinton and Trump supporters differ on views

  • f fairness of criminal justice system

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Most FL voters believe climate change is a serious problem; huge partisan differences

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Direction of the Country

slide-49
SLIDE 49

FL voters split on Obama’s performance as President; huge partisan differences in voting

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Plurality of FL voters looking for change

  • verwhelmingly supported Trump

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Candidate Qualities & Campaign Approaches

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Slogans Matter!

slide-54
SLIDE 54

Campaign Organization: Conventional Wisdom Shattered?

  • Campaign offices across state
  • Visits: when, where, how many
  • TV ads vs. GOTV efforts
slide-55
SLIDE 55
slide-56
SLIDE 56

Two Approaches to Voter Mobilization: Top-Down or Bottom-Up?

slide-57
SLIDE 57

NBC News, November 13, 2016

slide-58
SLIDE 58

Too much Clinton reliance on TV ads?

FL Congressman Alcee Hastings, September 2, 2016: “To date, the Clinton campaign has spent $22.3 million on television [in Florida] – $22.3 million. You give me and… [the county DECs around the state] $22 million and I’ll produce more votes for you than a damn television ad.”

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Florida TV ad spending

slide-60
SLIDE 60

Top 10 National Media Markets for Presidential TV Advertising

  • Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, FL
  • Cleveland-Akron, OH
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Philadelphia, PA
  • Columbus, OH
  • Boston, MA
  • West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce, FL
  • Denver, CO

Media Market Amount

$26.9 million $22.3 million $16.6 million $16.3 million $13.8 million $13.3 million $11.3 million $10.8 million $ 9.7 million $ 8.8 million

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Polling consistently gave a false narrative of an assured Clinton victory

slide-62
SLIDE 62

Florida Pre-Election Polls: A Wild Ride!

Trump Actual: 49.0 Clinton Actual: 47.8

slide-63
SLIDE 63

USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES

sunshinestatesurvey.org

slide-64
SLIDE 64
slide-65
SLIDE 65
slide-66
SLIDE 66
slide-67
SLIDE 67
slide-68
SLIDE 68
slide-69
SLIDE 69
slide-70
SLIDE 70
slide-71
SLIDE 71

Gallup, latest survey conducted October 25-26, 2016

slide-72
SLIDE 72

Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN

slide-73
SLIDE 73
slide-74
SLIDE 74

The Four “2’s” of 2016

  • Too long
  • Too negative
  • Too expensive
  • Too divisive
slide-75
SLIDE 75

Turnout Higher in All Elections in 2016

slide-76
SLIDE 76

Florida Picks Winners!

slide-77
SLIDE 77

Looking Ahead

  • Major activities

Constitutional Revision Commission – Open primary – Nonpartisan Supervisors Constitutional Amendment Drives— Felon Voting Rights

  • Challenges

– Online registration – Competitive gubernatorial race (both parties) – U.S. Senate race (Nelson seat) – Millennials – Organizing & mobilizing

slide-78
SLIDE 78
slide-79
SLIDE 79

CONGRATS FLORIDA SUPERVISORS

No Recount Here!