8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
FirstGroup plc
Results for the year to 31 March 2020
Wednesday 8 July 2020
FirstGroup plc Results for the year to 31 March 2020 Wednesday 8 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
FirstGroup plc Results for the year to 31 March 2020 Wednesday 8 July 2020 8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020 Matthew Gregory Chief Executive 8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020 2
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Wednesday 8 July 2020
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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Our first priority is the health and safety of our passengers and employees. Beyond providing safe and vital transport links for key workers, we have been supporting our communities by ▪ delivering food supplies to vulnerable families ▪ transporting essential medical supplies and safety kit ▪ donations of food/supplies from our businesses with a catering offer ▪ enabling our sites to be used for local initiatives and fundraising ▪ delivering home schooling and online resources ▪ giving employees time to volunteer for charities and community groups
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Progress made with our plans during the year − Launched sale processes for North American divisions in March, although speed of conclusion affected by coronavirus − Revenue growth and strong bid seasons for First Student and First Transit − First Bus digital transformation and network optimisation; effective partnerships with government − West Coast Partnership rail franchise won; extended GWR to continue transformation of that network − Against this, headwinds included ongoing challenges for Greyhound, hardening of US insurance market and slower pace of cost efficiency progress in First Bus − Despite headwinds, our expectation was for adjusted operating profit to be broadly comparable to prior year until the onset of coronavirus ▪ Significant impact on profit from coronavirus across our markets in 2020 − Swift and comprehensive funding and support across all our divisions from governments and customers demonstrates critical importance of public transportation − Rapid action to protect our ability to deliver vital services and restore capacity: costs, cash, liquidity − Adjusted cash flow ahead of expectations in 2020 and current liquidity of £850m increased since April − Continued uncertainties include fiscal support tapering, duration of social distancing, rate and extent of demand recovery ▪ Local transport services recognised as integral to the restoration of economic growth over time
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020 5
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Change Change ex IFRS 16 impact1 in CCy
Revenue 7,754.6 7,126.9 +8.8% +7.2% Adjusted2
1,108.9 670.3 +65.4% (9.4)%
256.8 314.8 (18.4)% (22.1)%
3.3% 4.4% (110)bps (120)bps
(146.9) (106.6) +37.8%
109.9 208.2 (47.2)% (32.3)%
22.4% 22.4%
82.7 159.8 (48.2)% (33.1)%
6.8p 13.3p (48.9)% (33.3)% Pre-IFRS 16 net cash inflow 98.5 197.3 (50.0)% Net debt3 3,278.1 903.4 n/m
896.2 903.4 (0.8)%
2,381.9
3.0x 1.3x Ring-fenced cash adjusted net debt pre-IFRS16: EBITDA x 2.4x 2.1x
1 Change excluding first time adoption of IFRS 16 (leases) which resulted in a net increase in Adjusted PBT in the period of £6.4m, – see page 41. Change in constant
currency ('CCy') is based on retranslating FY 2019 foreign currency amounts at FY 2020 rates
2 Before other intangible asset amortisation charges and certain other items 3 Net debt is stated excluding accrued bond interest
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Group revenue in constant currency +7.2% or +2.6% excluding the Avanti West Coast franchise that started in December 2019 ▪ Growth in First Student, First Transit and First Rail; Greyhound decrease includes withdrawal from Western Canada and First Bus reflects the poor summer weather in H1 and sales of Manchester depots ▪ £122m revenue impact from coronavirus in final weeks of the year 7,126.9 107.7 7,234.6 84.5 69.7 (56.7) (31.6) 575.3 0.5 7,876.3 (121.7) 7,754.6 Mar 2019 revenue Currency Mar 2019 baseline First Student First Transit Greyhound First Bus First Rail Group items Mar 2020 sub-total Coronaviru s impact Mar 2020 revenue
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ North American divisional trading performances reflect higher self-insurance charges of £29.4m ($36.8m) in total and driver shortage pressures; both being reflected in pricing and investment plans going forward ▪ As noted previously, slower cost efficiency programme progress in First Bus than planned ▪ IFRS 16 effect on adj. op. profit c.£20m less than guided due to accounting treatment of rail provisions ▪ Net coronavirus impact includes drop through of lower revenues partially offset by lower variable costs, limited initial customer and government funding in the period, and start of cost saving actions ▪ Software amortisation of £16.1m (2019: £18.1m) now charged to adjusted operating profit, reflecting evolving market practice 332.9 6.5 (18.1) 321.3 (4.2) (17.1) (12.8) (12.9) 21.2 8.4 303.9 6.4 (53.5) 256.8 Mar 2019
Currency Software amortisation Mar 2019 baseline First Student First Transit Greyhound First Bus First Rail Group items Mar 2020 sub-total IFRS 16 (op leases) Coronavirus impact Mar 2020
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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22-23% tax rate guidance unchanged Rail franchise partners (in SWR and WCP) Includes impact
IFRS 16
£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Reported change Change in CCy Adjusted Operating profit 256.8 314.8 (18.4)% (20.1)% Net finance costs (146.9) (106.6) +37.8% Profit before tax 109.9 208.2 (47.2)% (48.2)% Tax (24.6) (46.6)
22.4% 22.4%
(2.6) (1.8) Attributable profit 82.7 159.8 (48.2)% (49.2)% EPS p 6.8p 13.3p (48.9)% (49.6)%
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Greyhound impairments and North American insurance provisions discussed overleaf ▪ Student losses on onerous contracts: charge for unavoidable losses as a result of coronavirus on contracts which have either been lost or were up for bid at the balance sheet date ▪ Fuel over hedge: charge relating to ineffectiveness on fuel hedges as a result of dramatically lower forecast volumes due to coronavirus, (particularly First Bus and First Student) ▪ Restructuring and reorganisation of which a large part relates to externally facilitated Group-wide initiative to achieve systematic and structured cost efficiencies. Also includes legal, professional and other costs associated with the proposed rationalisation of the Group ▪ First Transit legacy pension settlement: relates to a business disposed of in 2013 ▪ Increase in SWR performance bonds due to RPI from £15.0m to £16.1m ▪ Profit on property disposals: principally relating to Greyhound withdrawal from Western Canada and in First Student
£m H1 2020 FY 2020 Amortisation charges (11.8) (4.9) Student losses on onerous contracts
Fuel over hedge
Coronavirus-related adjusting items
Greyhound impairment (124.4) (186.9) North America insurance provisions (59.3) (141.3) Restructuring and reorganisation (15.4) (58.2) Transit legacy pension settlement (4.9) (4.9) Increase in SWR performance bond
Profit on Greyhound property disposals
Profit on Student property disposals
Other non-GAAP adjusting items (204.0) (383.1) Total non-GAAP adjustments (215.8) (409.5)
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Greyhound was impaired by £124.4m ($153.3m) at H1 reflecting updated view of profitability and outlook ▪ Further Greyhound impairment of £62.5m ($77.9m) at year end, largely as a result of an increase in the market rate used to discount the future cash flows of the business
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As at 31 March 2020 £m $m Greyhound CGU valuation 188.7 235.2 Other Greyhound net liabilities, including working capital (61.2) (76.3) Pension deficit (IAS 19 basis) (172.4) (214.8) Self-insurance reserve provision (111.4) (138.8) (156.3) (194.7)
▪ No impairments made to Greyhound’s real estate, reflecting recent valuations in excess of book value ▪ Greyhound £35.3m ($44.0m) EBITDA (post-IFRS 16) over the past twelve months
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Hardening environment for all businesses with US motor claims exposure ▪ Announced last year end an increase in reserve to $533m based on actuaries’ recommendation and a second, independent actuarial review ▪ Since then, claims environment has continued to deteriorate with court judgements that are more punitive and increasingly in favour of plaintiffs in certain regions, and further adverse settlements and developments on a number of aged insurance claims ▪ Therefore as at 31 March 2020: − Our actuaries have increased their reserve range expectation to $551m to $683m with the midpoint increasing by $109m since the start of the year − We have taken the decision to increase the reserve to provide additional protection − Since the start of the year changes in the market-based discount rate for the actuarial calculation has increased the provision required by a further $26m − The total adjusting charge for deterioration in historical claims, including the reduction in the discount rate, is $175m (of which $73m was recorded at the half year), and the reserve now stands at $657m ▪ It is expected that the majority of these claims will be settled over the next five years
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Insurance charge increases are reflected in the adjusted operating profit in these results to reflect this revised environment ▪ Taking a range of actions in response, including: − North American divisions continue to build the higher insurance costs into their bidding processes and hurdle rates for investment − Improvements have been made to claims management and settlement processes during H2 − Group also actively evaluates alternatives to reduce insurance risk and ongoing expense; anticipates extinguishing the self-insurance provision as part of the North American sale processes ▪ Experience of settlements over past three months are broadly at actuarial valuation levels ▪ The Group has a strong safety record and focus on risk management – for example, First Student has achieved four consecutive years of reduced injuries, down 34% over the period ▪ Robust safety management systems maintained throughout the Group with clear focus on compliance with policies, processes and procedures combined with investment in technology and training ▪ In the months since the start of the coronavirus lockdowns, accident statistics are significantly reduced
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪Net cash flow was ahead of expectations 482.6 (261.6) 46.7 (64.6) (7.2) 195.9 90.6 286.5 (39.0) (85.9) (41.4) 120.3 (21.8) 98.5
Road EBITDA Road capex Road disposal proceeds Road insurance and
Road working capital / other Road operating cash flow Rail operating cash flow Operating cash flow Pensions charge in excess of P&L Interest and tax Exceptionals Free cash flow Acquisitions Net cash flow Includes West Coast Partnership working capital inflow of £64m
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
In addition to cost control measures in light of very substantially reduced passenger volumes in each division: ▪ Full capital expenditure programme review − Future commitments on hold and managing existing orders accordingly − Increased utilisation of lease financing where appropriate ▪ Set up commercial paper programme to access UK COVID corporate Finance Facility (CCFF) scheme − Issuer limit of £300m based on credit ratings under the terms of the scheme − On confirmation of eligibility on 24 April, activated £300m issuance to further enhance liquidity ▪ New £250m bank bridge facility for part-refinancing the £350m April 2021 bond put in place; other major liability due in next two years is the CCFF paper currently due in March 2021, which can be rolled over ▪ Agreed supplier financing arrangements of >$100m and £75m in new vehicle leasing facilities ▪ Net pension deficit increased modestly to £313.4m (2019: £307.2m) despite falls in asset values in March, reflecting past efforts to derisk the scheme − The Group recently agreed First Bus triennial valuation on a funding basis as at 1 April 2019 − Overall cash contribution to First Bus pensions reduced by more than £10m for 2021 compared with the previous position; future overall contributions remain broadly in line with recent years
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Adjusted cash flow was ahead of our expectations in 2020 ▪ At year end, net debt (ex-IFRS 16) £896.2m (2019: £903.4m), with committed headroom under bank facilities plus free cash: £585.7m (2019: £520.6m) ▪ Liquidity increased since year end; c.£850m in committed undrawn headroom plus free cash at end June ▪ Additional uncommitted facilities include £150m accordion on bank RCF, the supplier financing arrangements of >$100m and £75m in new vehicle leasing facilities ▪ Net debt: EBITDA was 1.4x (2019: 1.3x) on banking covenant test basis (which requires <3.75 times) at year end, or 2.4x adjusted for Rail ring-fenced cash and pre-IFRS 16 (2019: 2.1x) ▪ S&P and Fitch recently reaffirmed BBB- credit ratings, whilst revising outlook to negative from stable ▪ Average maturity of bonds, loan notes and bank facilities is 3.3 years (2019: 4.3 years) ▪ c.70% of net debt denominated in US Dollars; c.50% at fixed interest rates
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Swift and comprehensive funding and support measures for all divisions from governments and customers ▪ Not currently possible to provide guidance for the current financial year given the material uncertainties in many of the Group’s markets − Including how rapidly demand will increase, rate at which current fiscal and support measures are tapered, duration of social distancing measures, timing of schools reopening in North America ▪ However based on current fiscal support from governments, payments from customers and the cost reductions made in response to lower demand: − Group has generated positive adjusted operating profit and positive cash from operations before capital expenditure since the start of the current financial year − Recognising the usual seasonality of First Student over the school summer holidays, we expect this relatively resilient financial performance to persist while these arrangements remain in place ▪ Undrawn committed liquidity increased to £850m reflecting additional funding measures arranged and the cash performance of the Group year to date; ongoing access to various forms of debt financing ▪ Continued fiscal measures are ensuring our critical services play their integral role in the restoration of economies as lockdowns ease
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020 18
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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Division Impact on service provision Volume reduction to low point Volume reduction currently First Student All schools in North America closed, minimal charter work underway 100% ~100% First Transit Varies by sub-segment but service levels fell by 40% on average 40% 35% Greyhound Routes sufficient to maintain national network but lower frequency; mileage down >60% 85% 70% First Bus Mileage initially down 60%, being restored progressively (now down c.20%) with government funding 90% 75% First Rail Weekend service across industry initially agreed with UK government; now being progressively restored 95% 90%
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Proactive steps taken to prioritise cash flow in light of very substantially reduced passenger volumes − Substantial proportion of total workforce in North America and the UK furloughed under the terms of governments’ emergency job retention measures, beginning to return to work as service levels increase − Significant reductions in all non-essential operating and capital expenditures − Headcount reductions in certain areas, particularly where customers have chosen not to support employee retention by maintaining some level of contractual payments − Executive Directors and Board voluntarily reduced salaries and fees by 20% − Salary reductions and deferrals also taken across wider senior management − Also utilising tax payment holidays and other emergency measures that governments have put in place to assist companies during this time ▪ Focus is on protecting the Group for the long term, while ensuring we maintain critical services now and remain well positioned to raise capacity rapidly when appropriate
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Strong bid season in 2019 – net fleet increase to c.43,000 and growth in market share again − 88% retention rate on ‘at risk’ business (96% overall) reflects strong safety and record-breaking customer satisfaction record − New business mainly net share shift from large competitors, some organic/conversion − Price increases continued to cover off cost inflation ▪ Bolt-on M&A – three transactions (850 buses), entry into Special Education segment ▪ Strong school start-up last September despite strength of the US employment market at the time; procurement, operational and maintenance efficiencies partially offset by self-insurance costs ▪ Innovation through proprietary tablet-based driver workflow system ▪ First Student is at the forefront of developments in alternative fuels for school buses – including electric bus trials
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$m Revenue Adj op. profit Mar 2019 2,424.9 227.1 Weather (3.2) 0.1 Pricing above inflation 30.1 30.1 Net growth 23.5 2.7 Management initiatives
Pay above inflation
Insurance
Inflation / FX / Other 53.0 (5.3) Mar 2020 (pre-coronavirus) 2,528.3 222.2 Coronavirus impact (53.4) (16.3) Mar 2020 2,474.9 205.9
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Contractually paid for daily service typically, therefore negotiating with each of c.1,100 school board customers to agree either full or partial payment during shutdown ▪ Reinforced importance of maintaining driver and operational capability for customers during the crisis by mobilizing industry bodies and sector competitors ▪ So far agreed terms with customers representing 74% of bus fleet; expect to recover c.52% of home-to- school revenue anticipated prior to pandemic ▪ Some customers reducing their level of reimbursement to reflect our ability to mitigate certain labour and fuel costs – adjusting for these our effective recovery rate has increased to c.61% ▪ Not currently assuming charter business recovers at same rate as home-to-school services ▪ First Student utilising CARES Act support available for all businesses
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Near-term opportunities ▪ Bolt-on M&A of less robust competitors ▪ Contracts potentially available from more challenged competitors in 2020 bid season ▪ Running additional routes to maintain social distancing (if bus capacity can be found) ▪ Driver recruitment / retention issues likely to ease ▪ Additional outsourcing of vehicle fleets or services ▪ Forefront of alternative fuels in our marketplace
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Medium-term divisional strategy ▪ Sustainable and resilient returns from our market-leading multi-year contract portfolio in the home-to- school market ▪ Opportunities for organic and M&A-led growth, entry into adjacent markets and provision of complementary services Near-term challenges ▪ Agreeing and implementing start-up requirements of each individual school at appropriate time ▪ Managing social distancing on buses ▪ Charter activity expected to take longer to rebuild
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Ongoing growth from contract wins and organic progress; continuing to win business in existing markets and adapt to evolution of our markets ▪ Bid discipline maintained – 89% ‘at risk’ contract retention rate includes end of two large but underperfoming contracts ▪ Major contracts in Merced, Arlington, San Bernardino, Chicago and at Los Angeles airport ▪ Targeted recruitment and retention actions and back office efficiencies mitigated driver wage inflation ▪ Two legal settlements and higher self-insurance charge affected the margin ▪ Expansion of paratransit partnership with Lyft to four cities and working on similar arrangement with Uber ▪ Continued growth in shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) trials including stackable technology
$m Revenue
profit Mar 2019 1,411.4 64.8 Growth / new business / pricing 53.8 16.3 Pay above inflation
Insurance
Legal settlements
Inflation / FX / other 33.3 (5.6) Mar 2020 (pre-coronavirus) 1,498.5 43.7 Coronavirus impact (10.1) (7.5) March 2020 1,488.4 36.2
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Activity levels vary considerably across the division’s sub-segments; negotiating with those customers (c.65% of divisional revenue) where levels have changed meaningfully ▪ Based on agreed terms to date, we expect to recover equivalent of c.79% of revenue anticipated prior to the outbreak ▪ First Transit utilising CARES Act support available for all businesses ▪ Cost efficiencies and capex focus ▪ Transit authorities and other customers beginning to increase service levels in certain sub-segments (on average from 40% below prior levels to 35% currently) as travel restrictions begin to ease
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Near-term opportunities ▪ Contracts available from more challenged competitors ▪ Social distancing requiring additional paratransit and other trips ▪ Driver recruitment / retention issues likely to ease ▪ “Jaunt” Mobility as a Service (MaaS) offering launched this summer ▪ Increased interest in transition to autonomous and electric vehicles
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Medium-term divisional strategy ▪ Well-established platform to capture long-term growth in evolving transit management markets ▪ Winning MaaS and SAV opportunities and leveraging our partnerships with Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) and others Near-term challenges ▪ Potential for reduced demand ▪ Restoration of full services may take some time, particularly for university and airport shuttle ▪ Diminished willingness to invest in future mobility experiments in the short term ▪ Potential for customer funding pressures due to lower tax revenues
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Marketplace was challenging throughout the year with low-cost airline competition and lower fuel prices ▪ Strong demand in Q1 in southern US border states abruptly slowed to five year low due to change in government immigration policy in Q2 and remained at a low level ▪ Commercial team utilising pricing and targeted mileage reductions to prioritise revenue per mile and increased capacity optimisation ▪ Customer brand perceptions improved over the year, driven by increased punctuality and disciplined fleet investments ▪ Continue to optimise property assets via moves to intermodal sites and rezoning
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$m Revenue
profit Mar 2019 846.7 2.7 Revenue (31.9) (31.9) Cost inflation
Canada closure (36.7) 7.3 Property gains
Management actions (3.7) 18.3 Insurance
Bus and mileage costs
FX / other (0.7) 10.8 Mar 2020 (pre-coronavirus) 773.7 (6.9) Coronavirus impact (7.7) (8.4) Mar 2020 766.0 (15.3)
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ US CARES Act allocated $326m in emergency funds to US states specifically to support continued intercity bus transportation ▪ Given the unique nature of its scale as the only provider of a national network of coach services across 44 US states, Greyhound is expected to be a significant recipient (currently working through with each state) ▪ Greyhound initially reduced services to c.40% of its pre-outbreak timetabled mileage, sufficient to maintain its community-critical national transportation network ▪ Cost efficiencies and capex focus; closely monitoring demand patterns to shape and size future network ▪ Demand-led restoration of capacity underpinned by government support for vital connections provided by Greyhound’s network
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Near-term opportunities ▪ Reshape and optimize networks as demand increases ▪ Breadth of network offering compared to peers ▪ Core travel purpose – visiting friends and family – to recover faster than business trips, for example
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Divisional strategy ▪ Access available intercity bus funding via states ▪ Capture maximum value from our brand and nationwide network ▪ Deliver improved performance potential from revenue, cost and fleet management plans ▪ Continue property rationalisation ▪ Group remains committed to divestment of Greyhound Near-term challenges ▪ Pace of volume recovery and passenger preference ▪ Sustaining network profitability at lower levels of demand ▪ Fuel price vs competition (airlines, private car)
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Growth in LFL revenue and commercial revenue per mile through improved customer offering and active network management, partially offset by poor summer 2019 weather vs prior year as reported by peers − As previously indicated, cost efficiency programme savings to offset inflation coming through, but slower than initially planned ▪ Richer data from our digital investments is enhancing network and schedule planning decisions − Mobile app – first major operator to show real- time capacity (incl. wheelchair space) on each bus; implementation fast-tracked in pandemic − Contactless and mobile now >50% commercial ticket revenue (pre-coronavirus, higher since) ▪ Importance of buses to local economies being recognised – growth in central government funding and local partnerships (including clean air agenda) − Committed to operate a zero-emission fleet by 2035; do not plan to purchase any new diesel buses after December 2022
£m Revenue
profit Mar 2019 876.1 65.1 Revenue movements 9.0 9.0 Cost inflation
Management actions (1.3) 4.5 Fuel
Depot disposals (38.5) 2.2 Other (0.8) (1.2) Mar 2020 (pre-coronavirus) 844.5 53.7 Coronavirus (8.6) (7.6) Mar 2020 835.9 46.1
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Initially operated at c.40% of normal capacity to provide for key workers’ transport needs in accordance with an English regional bus-wide funding arrangement with the UK Government ▪ New ‘Restart’ funding announced at end of May to support higher service capacities as lockdown restrictions ease, whilst maintaining social distancing. In June and July respectively, Scotland and Wales committed to further grant packages ▪ Cost efficiencies and capex review; used UK Government’s Job Retention Scheme (JRS) to furlough employees as a condition of the funding agreements with government, but majority are now returning to work as service levels increase ▪ Capacity has recently increased to c.80%, volumes are c.25% of normal but the Restart funding arrangements and commitments to continue paying BSOG, concessionary fares and contract tenders at pre-crisis levels enable First Bus to sustain these levels
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Near-term opportunities ▪ Reshape networks in stimulate and capture demand as it increases post-pandemic ▪ Align services/resources to meet changing passenger needs – e.g. shallower morning and evening peaks ▪ Build on leading position in lower emissions buses to transition to zero-emissions public transport ▪ Supportive national and local government policy agenda for modal shift to public transport
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Medium-term divisional strategy ▪ Manage transition beyond current industry funding support arrangements ▪ Prioritise partnerships with local authorities ▪ Transition to low- and then zero-emissions fleet ▪ Frictionless customer offering to drive growth ▪ Deliver further benefits from cost efficiency programme Near-term challenges ▪ Managing social distancing on buses ▪ Transitioning from current government-assisted funding model as volumes increase ▪ Passenger travel trends uncertain – working from home, online shopping
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Focused on delivering service improvements and other commitments for passengers − GWR implemented largest timetable change in a generation − Fleet upgrades across several franchises ▪ Award of West Coast Partnership and successful mobilisation and rebranding to Avanti West Coast ▪ Awarded GWR Direct Award for additional three years at end of March 2020 ▪ LFL passenger revenue growth +0.2%, passenger volumes (1.3)% ▪ Financial performance driven by GWR and Avanti ▪ Previously reported operational and other challenges in TPE and SWR continued in the year
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ All of the Group’s First Rail franchises are operating under the Emergency Measures Agreements (EMAs) announced by UK government on 23 March 2020: − UK Government has waived all franchise operator’s revenue, cost and contingent capital risk across the industry until (at least) 20 September 2020 − Operators being paid a fixed management fee based on franchise cost base, with the potential for a small performance-based fee ▪ Group’s remaining contingent capital risk for the rail franchises is £294m in cash (see also slide 52). For the duration of the EMAs the Group does not expect any cash requirement to support the rail franchise
▪ Hull Trains open access service currently suspended
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Near-term opportunities ▪ Williams Review outcome / opportunity to reset the industry with a better balance of risk and reward ▪ Supportive national policy agenda for modal shift to public transport ▪ Performance incentive fees
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Medium-term divisional strategy ▪ Deliver enhanced services in accordance with our contractual agreements ▪ Work alongside government and industry partners to shape longer term industry structure, focused on passengers ▪ Seek appropriate balance of risk and reward in any future commitments Near-term challenges ▪ Managing social distancing ▪ Transition out of Emergency Measures Agreements ▪ Passenger travel trends uncertain
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
Remain resolutely committed to and engaged in portfolio rationalisation strategy ▪ No change to Board’s view that sale of these businesses remain best way to unlock material value for all FirstGroup shareholders ▪ Both well-invested long-term contract businesses, market leaders with excellent customer relationships and opportunities for multi-year growth ▪ Formal process to sell First Student and First Transit businesses was launched in March, with receipt of strong interest from a range of potential buyers ▪ In light of the pandemic, the successful conclusion most likely once: − Sufficient clarity on pace and profile of service resumption (incl. schools reopening in North America) − Enabling buyers to have visibility and make an informed assessment of value − Supported by fully functioning leveraged finance markets Significant opportunities ahead for UK businesses to create sustainable value
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8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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▪ Group has taken rapid action to respond to the coronavirus pandemic ▪ £850m in liquidity has increased since year end, supported by positive cash from operations in Q1 ▪ Significant uncertainties remain, but the importance of public transport has never been more clearly demonstrated ▪ Additional funding and support needs to continue to ensure our services are able to play their integral role in the restoration of economies as we move towards a post-pandemic situation ▪ Committed to and engaged in portfolio rationalisation strategy – confident that sales of the North American divisions remain the best way to unlock value for all FirstGroup shareholders ▪ Long term fundamentals are sound; public transport has a pivotal role to play in supporting vibrant local economies and the transition to a zero-carbon world
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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1 Adjusted operating profit less capital grant amortisation plus depreciation 2 Before other intangible amortisation charges and certain other items
£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Change Revenue 7,754.6 7,126.9 +8.8% EBITDA1 1,108.9 670.3 +65.4% EBITDA margin % 14.3% 9.4% +490bps Operating profit2 256.8 314.8 (18.4)% Operating profit margin % 3.3% 4.4% (110)bps Net finance costs (146.9) (106.6) +37.8% Profit before tax2 109.9 208.2 (47.2)% Non-GAAP adjustments (409.5) (306.1) n/m Loss before tax (299.6) (97.9) n/m Tax (25.0) (10.1) n/m Loss after tax (324.6) (108.0) n/m Basic EPS p (27.0)p (5.5)p n/m Adjusted EPS p 6.8p 13.3p (48.9)%
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
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1 Before other intangible amortisation charges and certain other items 2 US Dollar amounts include Canadian Dollars converted at the exchange rates prevailing in either period
Revenue Change in CCy Operating profit1 Change in CCy Operating margin1 Change in CCy Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2019
£m First Student 1,940.4 1,845.9 +2.2% 158.8 171.2 (9.4)% 8.2% 9.3% (100)bps First Transit 1,171.4 1,075.8 +5.6% 28.3 49.3 (44.7)% 2.4% 4.6% (220)bps Greyhound 603.2 645.1 (9.4)% (11.6) 2.6 n/m (1.9)% 0.4% (240)bps First Bus 835.9 876.1 (4.6)% 46.1 65.1 (29.2)% 5.5% 7.4% (190)bps Group items 17.8 17.3 +2.9% (33.7) (42.2) (20.1)% Road divisions 4,568.7 4,460.2 0.0% 187.9 246.0 (25.6)% 4.1% 5.5% (140)bps First Rail 3,185.9 2,666.7 +19.5% 68.9 68.8 +0.1% 2.2% 2.6% (40)bps Total Group 7,754.6 7,126.9 +7.2% 256.8 314.8 (20.1)% 3.3% 4.4% (110)bps $m2 First Student 2,474.9 2,424.9 205.9 227.1 8.3% 9.4% First Transit 1,488.4 1,411.4 36.2 64.8 2.4% 4.6% Greyhound 766.0 846.7 (15.3) 2.7 (2.0)% 0.3% North America 4,729.3 4,683.0 226.8 294.6 4.8% 6.3%
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ IFRS 16 effect on adj. op profit less than previously expected due to accounting treatment of rail provisions ▪ As expected, IFRS 16 has a significant impact on headline credit ratios – headline net debt:EBITDA was 3.0x (2019: 1.3x) – however, Group’s key banking covenants are calculated under ‘frozen accounting standards’; on which basis net debt: EBITDA was 1.4x (2019: 1.3x) ▪ Net debt adjusted for Rail ring-fenced cash and IFRS 16 leases: EBITDA was 2.4x (2019: 2.1x) ▪ IFRS 16 has no impact on underlying cash flow; however presentation of cash flow changes ▪ As at 30 March 2020, £2.5bn of leased assets were recognised as Right Of Use assets on the balance
£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Under IAS17 IFRS 16 effect Under IFRS 16 Under IAS 17 Adjusted EBITDA 619.2 +489.7 1,108.9 670.3 Operating profit 250.4 +6.4 256.8 314.8 Net finance costs (106.7) (40.2) (146.9) (106.6) PBT 143.7 (33.8) 109.9 208.2 EPS 9.0p (2.2)p 6.8p 13.3p Net debt 896.2 +2,381.9 3,278.1 903.4
41
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
42
▪ Approximately 90% of the right of use leases recognised are in the Rail division (principally rolling stock), remainder being leased properties, PCVs and other leased assets in the Road divisions − RoU assets capitalised at 31 March 2020 include £1,922m in Rail, £96m in First Student, £60m in First Bus and £40m in Greyhound ▪ This is reflected in the relative effect on depreciation and operating costs in the Rail division compared with the rest of the Group:
1 Adjusted operating profit less capital grant amortisation plus depreciation 2 Before other intangible asset amortisation charges and certain other items
Adjusted2 operating profit Road divisions 180.6 +7.3 187.9 246.0 First Rail 69.8 (0.9) 68.9 68.8 Total Group 250.4 +6.4 256.8 314.8 £m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Under IAS17 IFRS 16 effect Under IFRS 16 Under IAS 17 EBITDA1 Road divisions 482.7 +87.6 570.3 542.9 First Rail 136.5 +402.1 538.6 127.4 Total Group 619.2 +489.7 1,108.9 670.3
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
43
1 Adjusted operating profit less capital grant amortisation plus depreciation 2 Before other intangible asset amortisation charges and certain other items
£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Under IAS17 IFRS 16 effect Under IFRS 16 Under IAS 17 EBITDA1 First Student 350.2 +37.4 387.6 352.3 First Transit 51.3 +11.6 62.9 71.4 Greyhound 15.7 +19.6 35.3 38.6 First Bus 95.9 +17.3 113.2 119.7 Group items (30.4) +1.7 (28.7) (39.1) Road divisions 482.7 +87.6 570.3 542.9 First Rail 136.5 +402.1 538.6 127.4 Total Group 619.2 +489.7 1,108.9 670.3 £m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Under IAS17 IFRS 16 effect Under IFRS 16 Under IAS 17 Adjusted operating profit2 First Student 158.0 +0.8 158.8 171.2 First Transit 28.1 +0.2 28.3 49.3 Greyhound (16.3) +4.7 (11.6) 2.6 First Bus 44.6 +1.5 46.1 65.1 Group items (33.8) +0.1 (33.7) (42.2) Road divisions 180.6 +7.3 187.9 246.0 First Rail 69.8 (0.9) 68.9 68.8 Total Group 250.4 +6.4 256.8 314.8
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
44
▪ Rail is cash generative, with profit after tax equating to dividends available for the Group, albeit with some phasing of the funds flows ▪ First Rail “capital expenditure” is typically matched by franchise receipts, capital grants or other funding from third parties, agreed in advance of franchise start
Net Rail cash inflow £m
Cash from trading Rail operating profit 70 Depreciation 115 Third party grant amortisation (50) Franchise payment capital amortisation (51) 14 84 Capital expenditure cash flows In-year capex spend (115) Franchise payment capital receipts 27 Third party capital grant receipts 21 Net capital receipts (67) Working capital/other 10 Franchise Inflow 64 Net rail cash inflow for 2019/20 91
Ring-fenced cash £m
Opening ring-fenced cash 525 Working capital 118 Net capital receipts (67) PCS/AFC 10 Franchise Inflow (AWC) 64 Other (38) 87 Closing ring-fenced cash 612
Capital payments offset by capital receipts Temporary timing benefit, to reverse in future years AWC Franchise inflow
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
45
Net Rail cash inflow £m
Cash from trading Rail operating profit 327 Depreciation 413 Third party grant amortisation (128) Franchise payment capital amortisation (227) 58 385 Capital expenditure cash flows Cumulative capex spend (483) Franchise payment capital receipts 319 Third party capital grant receipts 137 Net capital receipts (27) Working capital/other 114 End of franchise outflows (28) Start of franchise inflows 153 125 Net rail cash inflow for 2015/20 597
Ring-fenced cash £m
Opening ring-fenced cash 196 Working capital 93 Net capital receipts (27) PCS/AFC (SWR £49.0m, TPE £42.5m) 112 End of franchise outflows (28) Start of franchise inflows 153 Other 113 416 Closing ring-fenced cash 612
Capital payments offset by capital receipts; Outflows: First ScotRail £(18)m, FCC £(3)m Inflows: SWR £89m, AWC £64m
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
46
Year to 31 March UK North America 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Annual volume (barrels 'm)
1.3m 1.5m 1.4m 0.8m 1.2m 1.4m
% hedged
65% 39% 4% 58% 20% 5%
Crude rate ($/barrel)
$64.42 $65.59 $61.72 $63.26 $65.35 $60.15
Diesel rate ($/barrel)
$77.43 $77.69 $73.40 $79.04 $80.98 $76.04
Equivalent cost per litre
36.1p 36.5p 35.0p 49.7c 50.9c 47.8c ▪ Prices include crude and refining cost but exclude delivery margins, duty, taxes and BSOG ▪ Equivalent cost per litre reflects FX hedges placed at $1.35, $1.34 and $1.32 : £1.00 in 2020/21 to 2022/23 ▪ North America annual volume excludes c.2.1m barrels provided by customers or protected by contract escalators First Bus First Rail First Student First Transit Greyhound Total
Annual volume (barrels 'm)
0.6m 0.7m 0.5m 0.1m 0.2m 2.1m
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
47
31 Mar 2020 31 Mar 2019 Closing rate for the balance sheet US$ $1.25 $1.30 Closing rate for the balance sheet CAN$ $1.74 $1.74 ▪ Lower US Dollar compared to prior period balance sheet date: Year to 31 Mar 2020 Year to 31 Mar 2019 Effective rate US$ earnings $1.29 $1.32 Effective rate CAN$ earnings $1.72 $1.74 ▪ Lower US Dollar compared to prior period effective rate: ▪ "Certain” and "highly probable" foreign currency transaction exposures may be hedged at the time the exposure arises for up to two years at specified levels, or longer if there is a very high degree of certainty. The Group does not hedge the translation of earnings into the Group reporting currency (pounds Sterling), but accepts that reported Group earnings will fluctuate as exchange rates against pounds Sterling fluctuate for the currencies in which the company does business. During the year, the net cash generated in each currency may be converted by Group Treasury into pounds Sterling by way of spot transactions in
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
48
Net finance costs, £m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Bonds 56.3 59.9 Bank borrowings 19.6 14.0 Loan notes 1.2 1.1 Senior unsecured loan notes 9.2 8.9 Finance lease interest1 42.6 2.7 Notional interest on long term provisions 12.0 14.6 Notional interest on pensions 8.7 8.1 Investment income (2.7) (2.7) Net finance costs 146.9 106.6 Taxation, £m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Current tax (0.5) (8.2) Deferred tax (24.5) (1.9) Tax (charge)/credit (25.0) (10.1) Tax paid (2.9) (7.5) Tax rate on adjusted profit before tax % 22.4% 22.4%
1 Post IFRS 16, the comparative number under IAS 17 is 2.4.
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
49
1 Adjusted operating profit less capital grant amortisation plus depreciation 2 US Dollar amounts include Canadian Dollars converted at the exchange rates prevailing in either year
Revenue EBITDA1 EBITDA margin1 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 £m First Student 1,940.4 1,845.9 387.6 352.3 20.0% 19.1% First Transit 1,171.4 1,075.8 62.9 71.4 5.4% 6.6% Greyhound 603.2 645.1 35.3 38.6 5.9% 6.0% First Bus 835.9 876.1 113.2 119.7 13.5% 13.7% Group items 17.8 17.3 (28.7) (39.1) Road divisions 4,568.7 4,460.2 570.3 542.9 12.5% 12.2% First Rail 3,185.9 2,666.7 538.6 127.4 16.9% 4.8% Total Group 7,754.6 7,126.9 1,108.9 670.3 14.3% 9.4% $m2 First Student 2,474.9 2,424.9 496.7 464.5 20.1% 19.2% First Transit 1,488.4 1,411.4 80.0 93.8 5.4% 6.6% Greyhound 766.0 846.7 44.0 49.9 5.7% 5.9% North America 4,729.3 4,683.0 620.7 608.2 13.1% 13.0%
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Disciplined investments principally in vehicle fleet continued during the year ▪ Leases with a capital value of £560.9m entered into in the Road Divisions in the period
50
£m Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Passenger carrying vehicles (PCV) 371.3 408.2 IT including transformation & software 8.4 10.6 Equipment 26.4 25.4 Facilities and depot development 10.6 12.6 Acquisitions 27.3 2.3 Road divisions capital investment 444.0 459.1 First Rail 123.1 112.0 Total capital investment 567.1 571.1 Net creditor movement (90.7) (11.5) Funded by operating lease (77.3) (127.1) Gross cash capex 399.1 432.5
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
51
£m Cash Fixed asset/Software additions (including acquisitions) Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 First Student1 193.0 232.3 256.8 257.8 First Transit 18.8 32.2 16.7 27.3 Greyhound 38.8 31.7 44.1 28.0 First Bus 30.1 25.1 46.3 17.9 First Rail 115.7 110.2 123.1 112.0 Group items 2.7 1.0 2.8 1.0 Total 399.1 432.5 489.8 444.0 ▪ In addition, during the year we entered into leases for passenger carrying vehicles and other assets with capital values in First Bus of £6.3m, First Student of £75.1m, Greyhound of £21.3m and First Transit of £13.8m (2019: First Bus £61.9m, First Student £27.0m, Greyhound £34.8m and First Transit £3.4m) ▪ First Rail during the year entered into leases with a discounted present value of £1,719.8m being mainly for rolling stock ▪ Cash capex shown inclusive of £21.8m acquisitions
1 March 2019 includes £2.3m cash and £2.2m fixed asset/software additions for the acquisition of CG Pearson Bus Lines, an Ontario-
based provider of school and charter transportation services.
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
52
▪ PCS and performance bond (A+D) combined represent the maximum committed funding obligations accruing to the Parent in respect of franchise losses or non-performance over their contract lives. The maximum remaining cash exposure, if the DfT were to return all TOCs to the original franchise terms following the EMA expiry on 20 September 2020 without any rebasing, is therefore the Contingent Capital relating to PCS and Performance Bonds less the £91.5m of funding that has already been provided to the TOCs (F), or £294.2m − GWR’s PCS and performance bond is excluded from this calculation as the new Direct Award signed in March 2020 makes provision for a revenue rebasing exercise for GWR as required ▪ Monies that cash-collateralise the season ticket bonds are part of the First Rail ring-fenced cash. Ring-fenced cash in First Customer Contact (FCC) is TOC’s cash held for passenger compensation
31 March 2020, £m GWR TPE SWR 70% share AWC 70% share FCC Total First Rail commitments Parent company support (PCS) and AFC total commitment A 10.0 168.8 82.2 92.4 n/a 353.4
B 5.0 84.4 30.6 35.7 n/a 155.7
C 5.0 84.4 30.6 35.7 n/a 155.7 Performance bond (non-cash) D 10.0 17.1 11.2 14.0 n/a 52.3 Season ticket bond (cash collateralised) E 34.1 3.0 52.4 5.9 n/a 95.4 Amount of PCS/AFC already committed to TOC F
(49.0)
(91.5) Total First Rail bonds (C+D+E) 49.1 104.5 94.2 55.6 n/a 303.5 Group maximum remaining cash exposure (A+D+F) n/a 143.4 44.4 106.4 n/a 294.2 First Rail ring-fenced cash Ring-fenced cash as at 31 March 2020 265.6 49.8 244.9 50.4 1.3 611.9
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
53
▪ Broadly flat net pension deficit reflects actions taken to derisk the scheme and improved investment strategy £m Accounting position as at 31 March 2020 31 March 2019 Assets Liabilities Offsets Accounting surplus/(deficit) Accounting surplus/(deficit) First Bus scheme 1,201.3 (1,347.1)
(209.0) Group scheme 153.2 (120.4)
26.6 First Bus LGPS schemes 1,221.7 (984.7) (216.5)* 20.4 42.7 UK (ex-Rail) total 2,576.2 (2,452.2) (216.5) (92.6) (139.7) First Rail schemes 2,796.2 (4,245.5) 1,447.0 (2.3) (3.1) North America schemes 417.6 (636.1)
(164.4) Total Group DB schemes 5,790.0 (7,333.8) 1,230.4 (313.4) (307.2) ▪ The Trustee and Company are in the final stages of agreeing an updated long-term funding plan for the First UK Bus Pension Scheme. Central to this plan is reducing the level of asset risk. The 2019 funding valuation for the LGPS in England was completed during the year, and it showed an improvement in funding position compared to the previous valuation. This has allowed the Company to stop paying additional contributions to the Fund from the end of the 2020-21 financial year, and also enabled the Company to agree a significant level of asset de-risking during the financial year. As a result, overall cash requirements remain broadly in line with recent experience and the risk of continued cash requirements in the longer term is reduced ▪ First Bus and Group schemes benefit from FirstGroup plc funding guarantees. First Bus and Group schemes closed to future accrual, two Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS) closed to new members
* Irrecoverable surplus
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
54
1 Service costs excluding interest for defined benefit schemes
£m Deficit Cash contributions P&L charge1 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2018 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2018 Mar 2020 Mar 2019 Mar 2018 North America (218.5) (164.4) (162.7) 20.6 27.2 17.6 8.7 11.1 10.3 First Bus (92.6) (139.7) (108.4) 37.8 43.1 62.4 10.7 34.8 21.5 First Rail (2.3) (3.1) (2.6) 45.6 38.6 31.5 45.7 38.7 31.8 Total (313.4) (307.2) (273.7) 104.0 108.9 111.5 65.1 84.6 63.6
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
▪ Net debt: EBITDA was 1.4x (2019: 1.3x) on banking covenant test basis (which requires <3.75 times) at year end, or 2.4x adjusted for Rail ring-fenced cash and pre-IFRS 16 (2019: 2.1x) ▪ Net debt (ex-IFRS 16 operating leases) £896.2m (2019: £903.4m) at year end, with committed headroom under bank facilities plus free cash: £585.7m (2019: £520.6m). Group also has £150m accordion on bank RCF and other uncommitted undrawn facilities ▪ Undrawn committed liquidity has increased to £850m as at end June, reflecting additional funding measures arranged and the cash performance of the Group in the first quarter of FY21 ▪ The Group’s three bonds outstanding have no financial covenants ▪ S&P and Fitch recently reaffirmed BBB- credit ratings, whilst revising outlook to negative from stable ▪ Average maturity of bonds, loan notes and bank facilities is 3.3 years (2019: 4.3 years) ▪ c.70% of net debt denominated in US Dollars; c.50% at fixed interest rates
55
£0m £100m £200m £300m £400m H1 '21 H2 '21 H1 '22 H2 '22 H1 '23 H2 '23 H1 '24 H2 '24 H1 '25 H2 '25 H1 '26 H2 '26 H1 '27 H2 '27 H1 '28 H2 '28 Lease finance Bonds Loan notes Private placement notes Bilateral term loan Drawings under RCF
1 The April 2021 bond has been swapped to floating rates and hence has a lower effective rate net of these swaps
£350m 8.75% Apr 2021 bond1 £325m 5.25% Nov 2022 bond £200m 6.875% Sept 2024 bond
8 July 2020 FirstGroup results for the year to 31 March 2020
56
Certain statements included or incorporated by reference within this presentation may constitute “forward looking statements" in respect of FirstGroup plc's operations, performance, prospects and/or financial condition. Such statements are based on our current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events
also based on numerous assumptions regarding our present and future strategy and the environment in which we operate, which may not
statements we may make. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser. Nothing contained in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes
FirstGroup plc makes no recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in shares of FirstGroup plc or in any other securities or investments whatsoever and you should neither rely nor act upon, directly or indirectly, any of the information contained in this presentation in respect of any such investment activity.