Final Preferred Alternatives for the 2021-2022 Biennial Harvest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Final Preferred Alternatives for the 2021-2022 Biennial Harvest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 27, 2023 508 likes •837 views

Agenda Item G.4.a Supplemental GMT Presentation 1 April 2020 Final Preferred Alternatives for the 2021-2022 Biennial Harvest Specifications Goals for FPA on Harvest Specifications today 1. Default Harvest Control Rules 2. Alternative

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Final Preferred Alternatives for the 2021-2022 Biennial Harvest Specifications

Agenda Item G.4.a Supplemental GMT Presentation 1 April 2020

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SLIDE 2

Goals for today

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FPA on Harvest Specifications

  • 1. Default Harvest Control Rules
  • 2. Alternative Harvest Specifications
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SLIDE 3

Default HCRs include:

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Overfishing limit Sigma and P* (OFL -> ABC) Acceptable biological catch Annual catch limit Stock category

Tables 2-2 (2021) & 2-3 (2022) in Supplemental REVISED Attachment 1

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SLIDE 4

Default HCRs include:

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For some species the ACLs resulting from the default HCRs are outside of the range

  • f impacts projected in the

2015-2016 EIS. For these species additional information is available in the analytical document.

Species with ACLs outside the range previously analyzed

Big Skate Bocaccio S of 40° 10’ N. lat. Cabezon (CA) California Scorpionfish Canary Rockfish Chilipepper S

  • f 40° 10’ N.

lat. Cowcod (40° 10′ - 34° 24′ N. lat.)* English Sole Lingcod N of 40° 10’ N. lat. Lingcod S of 40° 10’ N. lat. Pacific Cod Pacific Ocean Perch Petrale Sole* Shortbelly Rockfish* Starry Flounder Widow Rockfish

* indicates species with alternative harvest control rules also being considered

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SLIDE 5

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Default HCRs

GMT recommendation: adopt default HCRs for all stocks, Except:

  • 1. Cowcod south of 40° 10′ N. lat.
  • 2. Oregon black rockfish
  • 3. Petrale sole
  • 4. Sablefish
  • 5. Shortbelly rockfish

Tables 2-2 (2021) & 2-3 (2022) in Supplemental REVISED Attachment 1

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SLIDE 6

Goals for today

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FPA on Harvest Specifications

  • 1. Default Harvest Control Rules
  • 2. Alternative Harvest Specifications
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SLIDE 7

Alternative Harvest Specifications

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  • 1. Cowcod south of 40°10′ N. lat.
  • 2. Oregon black rockfish
  • 3. Petrale sole
  • 5. Shortbelly rockfish
  • 4. Sablefish

Tables 2-1 in Supplemental Revised Attachment 1

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SLIDE 8
  • 1. Cowcod, south
  • f 40° 10′ N. lat.

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs = 98 mt (2021) & 96 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.40

ACLs = 84 mt (2021) & 82 mt (2022)

Alternative 2: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.30

ACLs = 61 mt (2021) & 58 mt (2022)

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SLIDE 9
  • 1. Cowcod, south
  • f 40° 10′ N. lat.

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs = 98 mt (2021) & 96 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.40

ACLs = 84 mt (2021) & 82 mt (2022)

Alternative 2: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.30

ACLs = 61 mt (2021) & 58 mt (2022)

GMT Recommendation: Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.40

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SLIDE 10
  • 2. Oregon Black

Rockfish

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No Action: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs = 479 mt (2021) & 474 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = “Case-by-case” ABC, set at 2020 ACL

ACLs = 512 mt (2021 & 2022)

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SLIDE 11
  • 2. Oregon Black

Rockfish

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No Action: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs = 479 mt (2021) & 474 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = “Case-by-case” ABC, set at 2020 ACL

ACLs = 512 mt (2021 & 2022)

GMT Recommendation: Alternative 1: ACL = “Case-by-case” ABC, ACLs = 2020 ACL

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SLIDE 12
  • 3. Petrale Sole

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs= 4,115 mt (2021) & 3,660 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.40

ACLs= 3,843 mt (2021) & 3,455 mt (2022)

Alternative 2: “Stair-step ACLs”

ACLs = 3,600 mt (2021 & 2022)

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SLIDE 13
  • 3. Petrale Sole

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.45

ACLs= 4,115 mt (2021) & 3,660 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.40

ACLs= 3,843 mt (2021) & 3,455 mt (2022)

Alternative 2: “Stair-step ACLs”

ACLs = 3,600 mt (2021 & 2022)

GMT Recommendation: No Action: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

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SLIDE 14
  • 4. Sablefish

(Coastwide)

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.40

ABC = 8,208 mt (2021) & 7,811 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

ABC = 8,791 mt (2021) & 8,375 mt (2022)

apportionment north and south of 36° N. lat. on next slide

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SLIDE 15
  • 4. Sablefish

(Coastwide)

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No Action: ACL= ABC, P* = 0.40

ABC = 8,208 mt (2021) & 7,811 mt (2022)

Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

ABC = 8,791 mt (2021) & 8,375 mt (2022)

GMT Recommendation: Alternative 1: ACL = ABC, P* = 0.45

apportionment north and south of 36° N. lat. on next slide

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SLIDE 16
  • 4. Sablefish

Apportionment north & south of 36° N. lat.

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Method 1: Long-term apportionment;

73.6% north & 26.4% south

Method 2: 5-year avg. apportionment;

78.4% north & 21.6% south

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SLIDE 17
  • 4. Sablefish

Apportionment north & south of 36° N. lat.

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Method 1: Long-term apportionment;

73.6% north & 26.4% south

Method 2: 5-year avg. apportionment;

78.4% north & 21.6% south

GMT Recommendation: Method 2: 5-year avg.

note: may be re-evaluated every biennium, if desired

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SLIDE 18
  • 5. Shortbelly

Rockfish

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No Action: P* = 0.40; ACL = 500 mt Alternative 1: P* = 0.40; ACL = 3,000 mt Alternative 2: Ecosystem Component Species

No ACLs specified

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SLIDE 19
  • 5. Shortbelly

Rockfish

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No Action: P* = 0.40; ACL = 500 mt Alternative 1: P* = 0.40; ACL = 3,000 mt Alternative 2: Ecosystem Component Species

No ACLs specified

GMT Recommendation: Alternative 1: P* = 0.40; ACL = 3,000 mt

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SLIDE 20

Goals for today

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FPA on Harvest Specifications

  • 1. Default Harvest Control Rules
  • 2. Alternative Harvest Specifications

Questions?

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SLIDE 21

Back-up slides from March check-in:

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Alt. Description Summary No Action 500 mt ACL Likely to constrain fisheries

  • Alt. 1 (PPA)

3,000 mt ACL Extra cushion for fisheries Stock thriving - supports robust forage base Other prey abundant (e.g, anchovy)

  • Alt. 2

EC species ACLs more incentive to reduce bycatch EC species do not have harvest specifications

Shortbelly Rockfish:

Analysis provides support for Alt 1 PPA (same as 2020 ACL)

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SLIDE 23

Oregon Black Rockfish (in complex with OR blue/deacon)

Analysis provides support for higher Alt 1 ABCs and ACLs

Alt. Description No Action ACL = ABC P*0.45

  • 512 mt ABC in 2020
  • 479 mt in 2021
  • 474 mt in 2022
  • Alt. 1

(PPA) Case-by-case ABC

  • Stay at 512 mt for 2021-22
  • Revert to using P* in 2023+

Similar long-term bio. impacts:

  • ABCs, output, depletion
  • Stock stays above 54% depletion

Alt 1 (PPA) Impacts:

  • Stabilizes fisheries in 2021-22
  • More time for ODFW to conduct new

survey for 2023 assessment

Trade-off with Alt 1:

  • Reverts back to P*0.45 after 2022
  • 5 mt ACL difference

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SLIDE 24

Cowcod South of 40°10’:

Alt 1 PPA accommodates ACT range of 40-60 mt

Alt. Description No Action ACL = ABC P*0.45 (98 mt in 2021)

  • Alt. 1 (PPA)

ACL = ABC P*0.40 (87 mt in 2021)

  • Alt. 2

ACL = ABC P*0.30 (69 mt in 2021)

Stock rebuilt and higher ACLs

  • Baseline: 10 mt ACL and 6 mt ACT
  • SQ 36% trawl and 64% non-trawl
  • All provide more opportunity

Focus on more precautionary ACTs:

  • For assessment uncertainty
  • ACT range = 40-60 mt
  • Alt 2 cannot support 60 mt ACT

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SLIDE 25

Petrale Sole: GMT previously recommended precaution

Alt. Description No Action ACL = ABC P*0.45

  • Alt. 1 (PPA)

ACL = ABC P*0.40

  • Alt. 2

“Stair-step ACLs” (constant each biennium; decline over time)

  • Council wanted precaution w/

“overestimate” from 2019 update assessment

  • Both Alt 1 and 2 equally

precautionary and provide same long-term $ benefits

  • Alt 1 = more benefits in 2021-22
  • Alt 2 = more spread out later

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SLIDE 26

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Petrale Sole: GMT is now supporting No Action for FPA

  • New 2019 survey estimate is

higher (received 1 week ago)

  • Concerns with 2019 update

assessment reduced

  • Now support NA because

provides more benefit

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SLIDE 27

Sablefish: 4 ACL options

4 Options Coastwide ABC Alt. ACL Apportionment Method % N 36 % S 36 No Action Method 1 NA: P*0.40 1: Long-term avg 73.6% 26.4% No Action Method 2 2: 5-year avg 78.4% 21.5% Alt 1 Method 1 1: P*0.45 1: Long-term avg 73.6% 26.4% Alt 1 Method 2 (PPA) 2: 5-year avg 78.4% 21.5%

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Sablefish ABCs: main focus

Higher catch not expected to negatively impact stock vs lower catch Alt 1 (P*0.45) is 550-600 mt higher

  • Similar biological impacts for both
  • Stays near target, even under low state
  • More frequent assessments could be used to

conservatively manage stock

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SLIDE 29

Sablefish: 2 ACL apportionment methods

Method 1: long-term avg (73.% N + 26.4%S) Method 2: 5-year-avg (78.4% N + 21.5% S) SSC guidance:

  • policy call; can consider economics
  • Neither method poses biological risk
  • Method 2 better if basing off trawl survey distributions

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Sablefish N 36° Lat.

  • +851 mt in 2021 & +817 mt in 2022
  • ~$3.0 million total ex-vessel revenue gain per year

○

+$1.1 million IFQ

○

+$0.5 million DTL

○

+$1.1 million primary “tier”

○

+$0.3 million tribal Impacts with Alt 1 Method 2 (PPA):

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Sablefish S 36° Lat.

Reasons for constant catches:

  • Attainments are low
  • Neither sector expected to

be constrained in 2021-22

  • Lack of processing

infrastructure a hindrance and CCAs Can re-evaluate in future

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Sablefish S 36° Lat.

Same expected impacts for all options:

  • ~$3.4 million ex-vessel total per year
  • ~$3.2 million DTL
  • ~$0.2 million IFQ

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