[PPT] - Exploring Complex Adaptive Systems Dr Niki Jobson, Dstl, UK Dr Anne PowerPoint Presentation

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Exploring Complex Adaptive Systems

Dr Niki Jobson, Dstl, UK Dr Anne‐Marie Grisogono, DSTO, Australia TTCP Joint Systems and Analysis Group, AG 14

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Complex operational environment

Simple cause– effect models fail The ‘rules’ keep changing Actions have unintended consequences Coherent behaviour, uncertain of causes

From The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007 – 2036, Third Edition From The Comprehensive Approach, Joint Discussion Note 4/05

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New problems require new approaches

biological sciences information sciences cognitive sciences

rganisational

sciences evolutionary economics physical sciences maths & computing social sciences

Complex Systems Science

Design and management principles for CAS Methodologies, guidelines, tools and techniques Understand fundamental processes in CAS Causality and influenceability in CAS

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Ansgar Walker, http://www.Wikimedia.org

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May have many kinds

f elements/agents,

elements can be distinguishable by functions or specialisations Elements can interact in relatively simple ways (linear & non-linear) Open system: exist in, & interact with a context: exchange information, energy, materials Patterns interact higher

rder patterns

Coherent dynamic behaviours dynamic patterns emerge Leading to seemingly chaotic behaviour Interdependent propagation of effects small changes in initial parameters can have “large” effects Hierarchical or nested multi-scale structure Systems

Complex Systems

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Complex Adaptive Systems

Additional property of adaptivity:
structure and behaviour of the system changes over time in a

way which tends to increase its ‘success’ or ability to thrive

Natural living systems, ‘engineered’ systems and socio‐

technical systems

Systems

Complex Systems

CAS

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Emergence, scope and scale (1)

From http://www.commons.wikimedia.org

Emergence is coupled to scope Emergence is coupled to scope …. and scale …. and scale

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Emergence, scope and scale (2)

Studying either macrostate or microstate in isolation is

not adequate

Requires a multi‐scale approach
Need to establish which aspects of the microstate are relevant to

the key emergent properties/behaviours at macrostate

Iterative analysis, combine top down and bottom up

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Complexity and scale

Based on Bar-Yam Y., Complexity of Military Conflict: Multi-scale Complex Systems Analysis of Littoral Warfare, NECSI, 2003

System Complexity

(no. poss independent behaviours)

Scale of behaviour

Fine scale Coarse scale

When the independence of the parts is reduced, the scale of behaviour is increased When the independence of the parts is reduced, the scale of behaviour is increased Coherent agents Coordinated agents Independent agents

http://www.FreeFoto.com

Trade off between large scale behaviour and fine scale complexity Trade off between large scale behaviour and fine scale complexity

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Complexity and scale in organisations (1)

Different mission have different requirements
Vary in complexity and scale
Successful force:
Able to achieve many tasks across the range of scales through

matching its organisational complexity to the task

Making appropriate trade‐offs between complexity and scale

System Complexity Scale of behaviour

Fine scale Coarse scale

Coalition forces Insurgents

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Complexity and scale in organisations (2)

Response to solving complex problems has been to centralise

control and assign individual responsibility

Individuals have a limited ability to deal with complexity
Many of today’s complex problems are beyond the ability of a single

person to cope with

Hierarchies are limited by the ability of the commander to deal with

complex environment

Best suited to delivery of large scale effect
Distribute complexity of the task among many individuals
Network structure can have a much greater level of complexity than its

individual elements

Greater the number and independence of force elements the more

effective a force is at high complexity missions

Local coordination produces local emergent collective behaviour
Distributed control is not a panacea
Need to determine what the correct balance is for specific mission

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Complex environments – the need to adapt

We need to:

rapidly decide, as situations develop, what is to be done, how, who

with, & how to measure success

maintain effectiveness under unpredictable and rapidly evolving

conditions, retaining ability to raise additional tasks as needed

to rapidly assemble tailored, diverse, multi-disciplinary teams and get

them operational and effective Planning for all eventualities becomes impossible on any reasonable scale of time, system size, or effort

Ability to adapt appropriately is fundamental to success

Requiring:

investment in the capability to adapt to the unexpected
generation of capabilities that have the capacity to respond effectively to

new and unforeseen challenges

moving away from planning and optimising for highly probable events

with a predetermined response

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System

context

System assesses whether change was desirable; keeps or discards change

Outcome of selection encoded in system memory selection Context changes System and context interact System changes

(triggered by outcome

f interaction)

System and context interact System senses

utcome of “new”

interaction variation sense change sense feedback adopt/discard Concept of fitness

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Counter insurgent conflict ecosystem

Coalition forces Coalition OGDs

International Media

NGOs

National government

Criminal cells Legitimate businesses

Local government

National police National forces Illegitimate business Terrorists National Media Private security co. Local population Ethnic groups Tribal groups Clans Tribal fighters Foreign fighters Refugees Warlords Religious groups Political groups Militia

……. operating at multiple scales Multiple cooperating and competing groups

Hypothetical boundaries for purpose of analysis

Based on Kilcullen D., Counterinsurgency Redux, Small Wars Journal, http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/kilcullen1.pdf

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Unbounded system; local & global networks & interdependencies

Coalition forces Coalition OGDs International Media NGOs National government Criminals Legitimate businesses Local government National police National forces Illegitimate business Terrorists National Media Private security co. Foreign fighters Local population Ethnic groups Tribal groups Clans Tribal fighters Refugees Warlords Religious groups Political groups Militia

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Open system

Coalition forces Coalition OGDs

International Media

NGOs

National government

Criminals

Legitimate businesses Local government

National police National forces

Illegitimate business

Terrorist National Media

Private security co.

Local population Ethnic groups Tribal groups Clans Tribal fighters Foreign fighters Refugees Warlords Religious groups Resources Support Training Opposition O p p

s

i t i

n

Political groups Militia Constraints Ideology R e s

u

r c e s O p p

s