SLIDE 1 See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324661297
Executive Development Lecture Series - Leadership Scenarios. Updated 2018 (Presentation Slides)
Article in SSRN Electronic Journal · January 2018
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3129670
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SLIDE 2 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129670
Executive Development
Facilitators: Professor David McKie and Dr Tom Cockburn MBA Programme Leadership Scenarios updated 2018
SLIDE 3 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129670
Leadership & scenarios
Kouzes and Posner (1997) see the future as ‘the domain of leaders’ (p. xxv) but it is everyone’s business and central to all levels
- f organising through:
- 1. Conscious routing of conversation in time
- 2. Exploring scenarios to avoid linear
projections of business as usual
- 3. Preparing emotionally and practically for
uncertainty and dynamic complexity
David McKie and Tom Cockburn 2
SLIDE 4
Leadership is domain of the future (1)
Routing in time: Three domains Past = Domain of description Necessary but minimise and direct forward in time Present = Domain of action Say why you’re here; what you are doing Future = Domain of possibility and surprise What might lie ahead
SLIDE 5 Leadership is domain of the future (2)
Explore new possibilities
‘What if . . .’ Crowdsource input: Ask as many people as possible, Listen to what they say… then ask again in a different way to get specific answers as in Smith & Cockburn (2016)*
If you had an extra $1 million how
would you change your section?
What would you do with an extra $50K
SLIDE 6 Relating to the future
After what ifs
State new ‘informed’ personal
possibility: ‘I think it’s possible to . . .’ ‘I believe we can . . .’
Check support for consensus and joint
commitment: ‘We will become leaders in . . .’
‘This organisation is capable of . . .’
SLIDE 7
Looking ahead
In Leadership for the 21st Century Rost (1993) characterises the 20th industrial leadership paradigm as: rationalistic, technocratic, linear, quantitative, and scientific in language and methodology Scenarios allow for less linear, less positivistic, and more creative future projections through images, options, and emergent narratives of dynamic possibilities
SLIDE 8
Doing the Kahn can: A brief history of scenarios
Types of future narrative Associated with Herman Kahn: Founder- director of a freewheeling think tank called the Hudson Institute Designed in story form to assist people in creatively pushing through mental blocks to consider ‘unthinkable’ futures
SLIDE 9
Scenarios (2)
One aim to reduce uncertainty and surprise E.g. Fall of Berlin Wall & World Trade Center bombing seemed improbable and 9/11 unthinkable Kahn’s trademark slogan was ‘thinking the unthinkable’ One of his examples was nuclear war (as, he argued, a clearheaded way of avoiding it).
SLIDE 10
Scenarios (3)
Term scenario from screenwriter Leo Rosten after watching scenario-planning by physicists Rosten adapted Hollywood usage where a scenario is an outline of a future movie Kahn liked this association with the fictional and playful rather than with more narrowly predictive forecasts.
SLIDE 11
Scenarios (4)
Kahn’s willingness to hypothesise without censorship led to spectacular misses (artificial moons to light large areas of the earth at night) And telling hits (personal computers and superconductivity). He gained fame as the first guru to alert US leaders about the need to watch Japan.
SLIDE 12
Scenarios (5)—activity 1
Small group exercise: Groundwork for generating a scenario 1) Work out the 3 key questions you’d like answered about the year 2030 2) Work out the 3 key questions you’d like answered about telecommunications in the year 2030 3) Work out who you´d ask these questions
SLIDE 13
Scenarios help us:
1) Understand the basic themes and central ideas of diverse topics 2) Abandon narrow, linear thinking and adopt wider perspectives 3) Develop alternative ways of interpreting the present 4) See beyond the current range of vision 5) Can add surprise or disruptive factors
SLIDE 14
Scenarios may help us:
5) Connect seemingly unrelated developments through narratives 6) Build more imaginative and integrated frameworks 7) Engage with uncertainty in a comprehensive, practical and systematic fashion 8) Acknowledge emotional investments and sustain ongoing strategic conversations
SLIDE 15 Can scenarios cope with environmental complexity?
Can scenarios be enhanced by applying the Snowden framework in parallel as the scenarios are being developed?
Snowden framework, 2012
SLIDE 16
Global scenarios for 2030 1) Market world:
Economic reform and technological innovation fuel rapid growth Developing regions are integrated into the global economy Global market brings modern techniques and products to virtually all countries. Result is widespread prosperity, peace and stability…but not without a ´shadow side´ such as widening gap between rich and poor though this is often neglected
SLIDE 17
Global scenarios 2) Fortress world:
Pessimistic vision based on failure of market-led growth to address social wrongs, rising inequality and environmental crises Believes unconstrained markets and new leaders will exacerbate these problems Sees accelerating destruction of environmental and social fabric on which growth depends Predicts enclaves of prosperity coexisting with widening misery and desperation
SLIDE 18
Global scenarios 3) Transformed world:
Visionary future of radical social and political change (incl. values and cultural norms). Sees power more widely shared and grass roots influence rise in new style of governance in business and society Believes new arrangements will improve society in terms of social & political equality, happiness and wellbeing as well as better protecting the environment
SLIDE 19
Back to the future: South African scenarios in 2004
1) Ostrich: Government does not face realities 2) Lame Duck: Protracted transition like bird with a broken wing unable to take off properly 3) Icarus: Popular elected govt. tries to achieve too much too quickly and burns in global economic sun 4) Flight of the Flamingoes: Take off slowly, fly high, & fly together
SLIDE 20
Scenario alignments from Canada
Four government roundtable scenarios: 1) Starship Enterprise; 2) Titanic; 3) HMS Bounty; and 4) Windjammer See ‘How to build scenarios’ at: www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
SLIDE 21
New Zealand Foresight Scenarios: 1) Possum in the Glare
New Zealand is caught like a possum in the glare of the oncoming future. But possums are hardy creatures, and New Zealand muddles along by: a) finding new markets for traditional agricultural products b) combating falling prices with new production technologies. . . .
SLIDE 22
2) Shark Roaming Alone
After economic difficulty, New Zealand has adapted quickly to keep up with the changes of the early 21st Century. Rapid uptake of new technology and the Internet, and the success of the entrepreneurial approach, have made us a highly individualised society of sharks. . . .
SLIDE 23 3) Nga Kahikatea: Reaching New Heights
World interest in NZ’s social change over the first decade of the 21st Century. What marks New Zealand out from other countries is a strong and widely shared sense
- f purpose a national intent.
A nation of kahikatea, standing together.
SLIDE 24 Exercise
Compare and contrast the scenarios for South
Africa, Canada and New Zealand.
In 2017 how accurate the scenarios for each
country?
What are the surprise factors e.g. Trump
election in US? Jacob Zuma still leading S. Africa? Pregnant PM of NZ? Trudeau as global statesman leading a weak economy? Impact of Brexit on UK and EU ? Syrian war and ISIS? Refugees and migration?
SLIDE 25
Your futures
How is your organisation prepared for different futures? How is the VUCA environment tackled? Is the Snowden framework useful for generating scenarios? What imagery would you use to describe your company’s scenarios?
SLIDE 26 References
Cockburn, T and Smith P.A.C. (2018). Vuca and the Power
- f Emergence Teams, in D.Dalcher (Ed.), The Evolution of
Project Management Practice, Routledge: UK. Smith, P & Cockburn, T. (2016). Developing and Leading Emergence Teams, Routledge, UK Smith, P and Cockburn, T. (Eds.) (2014). Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies on Leadership in Global Business, PA, USA: IGI Global Smith, P and Cockburn, T (2013) Dynamic Leadership Models for Global Business: Enhancing Digitally Connected Environments, PA, USA: IGI Global
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