Estimated key impact and outcome indicators for NSP 2021-2025 24th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Estimated key impact and outcome indicators for NSP 2021-2025 24th October 2019 3 rd NSP Consultation Meeting Country population 2014-2025 Description 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual population 0.88% 0.89% 0.89% 0.88% 0.88% 0.87%

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Estimated key impact and

utcome indicators for

NSP 2021-2025

24th October 2019 3rd NSP Consultation Meeting

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Country population 2014-2025

Description 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual population growth rate 0.88% 0.89% 0.89% 0.88% 0.88% 0.87% Country population 51,991,031 52,450,516 52,916,691 53,387,948 53,862,731 54,339,766 54,817,919 Description 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Annual population growth rate 0.86% 0.84% 0.83% 0.82% 0.80% Country population 55,294,979 55,770,232 56,242,997 56,712,559 57,178,110 Data source: Thematic report on population projections (volume 4F), Department of Population, Ministry of labour, Immigration and Population (medium projection)

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TB situation in Myanmar (1990–2018)

922 525 506 489 473 438 404 384 381 377 373 369 365 361 358 338 133 51 48 48 49 53 49 47 51 39 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1990 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Per 100,000 population

Prevalence rate per 100,000 population Incidence rate per 100,000 population Mortality rate per 100,000 population Data source – Global TB report 2019 (draft)

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TB incidence and mortality rate in Myanmar (2015-2025)

391 4.8% [VALUE] 4.8% [VALUE] 4.8% [VALUE] 5% [VALUE] 6% [VALUE] 7% [VALUE] 8% [VALUE] 9% [VALUE] 10% [VALUE] 10% [VALUE] 57 115 [VALUE] 12% [VALUE] 12% [VALUE] 12% [VALUE] 13% [VALUE] 13% [VALUE] 13% [VALUE] 14% [VALUE] 14% [VALUE] 14% [VALUE] 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Per 100,000 population

Incidence rate per 100,000 population (with % of annual reduction) Mortality rate per 100,000 population (with % of annual reduction) 51% reduction of TB incidence rate in 2025 compared to 2015 75% reduction of TB mortality rate in 2025 compared to 2015 Data source – backward calculation based on results of 2017-2018 nationwide TB prevalence survey

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Comparison between TB incidence rate and case notification rate (2015-2025)

391 373 355 338 321 302 280 258 235 211 190 268 264 247 253 257 247 239 227 214 199 185 67% 70% 69% 76% 79% 81% 84% 87% 90% 93% 96% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Per 100,000 population

Incidence rate per 100,000 population case notification rate per 100,000 population TB treatment coverage % 3% increase in TB treatment coverage Data source – TB surveillance data

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Trend of TB case notification (2015-2025)

208629 200177 191876 184290 176627 167490 157121 145794 133797 121423 110178 140700 139625 132025 136039 139535 135667 131982 126841 120417 112923 105770 48825 51416 49550 53481 55085 56738 58440 60193 61999 63859 65775 35% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Number of TB cases

Estimated TB cases (all forms) Notified TB cases (all forms) Notified TB cases (bacteriologically confirmed) % of BC cases among notified cases Data source – TB surveillance data

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Trend of treatment success rate of TB cases (2015-2025)

95% 96% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 86% 87% 87% 88% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 83% 80% 80% 79% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 70% 71% 72% 71% 75% 75% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Treatment success rate (Childhood TB) Treatment success rate (all forms of TB) Treatment success rate (DR-TB) Treatment success rate (TB/HIV coinfected cases) Data source – TB surveillance data

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Trend of case fatality rate of TB cases (2015-2025)

13% 13% 14% 16% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15.1% 16.1% 15.9% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0.6% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 case fatality rate (DR-TB) case fatality rate (TB/HIV coinfected cases) case fatality rate (all forms of TB) case fatality rate (Childhood TB) Data source – TB surveillance data

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5028 5750 5041 4885 4818 4588 4318 4017 3693 3355 3045 2793 3213 3197 3479 3614 3578 3497 3374 3213 3019 2893 56% 56% 63% 71.2% 75% 78% 81% 84% 87% 90% 95% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Number of DR-TB cases

Estimated DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Notifed DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) case detection coverage of DR-TB among estimated cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Case detection coverage of DR-TB among estimated bacteriologically confirmed DR- TB cases (2015-2025)

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2793 3213 3197 3479 3614 3578 3497 3374 3213 3019 2893 2217 2558 2691 2802 2963 2970 2938 2868 2763 2627 2604 79.4% 79.6% 84.2% 80.5% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 90% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 1000 2000 3000 4000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Number of DR-TB cases

Notifed DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Treated DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Treatment coverage of DR-TB among notified cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Treatment coverage of DR-TB among notified DR-TB cases (2015-2025)

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Number of notified and treated preXDR and XDR-TB cases (2015-2018)

20 53 41 146 10 7 122 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2016 2017 2018 notified preXDR cases treated preXDR cases 19 16 28 35 10 8 9 29 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2016 2017 2018 notified XDR cases treated XDR cases Data source – TB surveillance data and laboratory data

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Trend of XDR-TB cases (2015-2025)

19 16 28 35 58 57 56 54 51 48 46 10 8 9 29 40 40 39 38 36 34 32 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Number of XDR TB cases

Total notified XDR cases Total treated XDR cases Data source – TB surveillance data

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Proportion of childhood TB cases (2015- 2025)

40% 44% 46% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 25% 23% 22% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Proportion of under 5 among all childhood TB cases Proportion of childhood TB among all TB cases Data source – TB surveillance data

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TB/HIV collaborative activities (2015-2025)

72.4% 80.1% 83.3% 88.2% 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 65% 83% 90% 91% 92% 94% 96% 98% 98% 98% 98% 38.3% 58.0% 62.7% 71.0% 74% 77% 80% 83% 86% 89% 90% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % of TB/HIV coinfected cases receiving CPT % of registerd TB cases tested for HIV % of TB/HIV coinfected cases receiving ART Data source – TB surveillance data

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Prevalence of HIV among TB patients (2015-2025)

Data source – TB surveillance data and HSS data 10.3% 10.8% 9.8% 11.1% 9.2% 10.4% 9.9% 9.7% 9.2% 8.5% 8.5% 9.3% 8.7% 9.5% 8.6% 8.5% 5.7% 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 HIV prevalence among new TB patients (HSS survey) HIV prevalence among all TB patients with known HIV status HIV prevalence among all registered TB patients