EMPOWERING MACHINE LEARNING SOLVING THE FORECASTING DILEMMA Tom - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EMPOWERING MACHINE LEARNING SOLVING THE FORECASTING DILEMMA Tom Stanek & Jonathan Prantner 2

Tom Stanek Jonathan Prantner President Chief Analytics Officer 3

Leading applied artificial intelligence and data science company from Ann Arbor, MI Services and solutions • Leading Domo implementation and consulting firm • Custom artificial intelligence kick-start program • RXA Studio • Media Optimization • Voice of Customer • Workforce Optimization Over 70 different customers across North America, Europe, and Asia. 2019 Domo Innovative Partner of the Year 4

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS Solve Provide Domo 6

The Forecasting Dilemma Now what?

WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT ARE SALES WILL BE NEXT QUARTER 8

SALES ARE FORECASTED TO BE BELOW BUDGET... 9

…WHY? 10

…AND HOW CAN WE CHANGE THEM? 11

Sales Decomposition A Primer

WHAT IS A SALES DECOMPOSITION Market Mix Models decompose sales Volume Decomposition Due-to Analysis 13

MARKETING MIX FORECASTING Forecasting Sales using: Sales • Inventory • Pricing • Marketing • External Influences • 14

USE A PREDICTION MODEL TO DECOMPOSE SALES 15

USE A PREDICTION MODEL TO DECOMPOSE SALES Predict with the overall model Isolate each variable – Set the variable equal to zero – Predict with the reduced model – Calculate difference Scale each component to the total GET THE CODE AT: https://rxa.io/Domo 16

DEPLOYING IN DOMO 17

DUE TO ANALYSIS 18

DOMO GETS THE RIGHT INFORMATION INTO THE DECSION MAKERS HANDS 19

MARKETING MANAGER What Matters to Them: Media Performance • Optimization • Web Traffic • ROI • Sales • 20

MARKETING MANAGER What They Can Control: Budgets • Schedules • Mix • Strategy • 21

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 22

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 23

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 24

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 25

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 26

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 27

MARKETING MANAGER VIEW 28

PRODUCTION MANAGER What Matters to Them: Inventory • Costs • Workforce • Demand • Sales • 29

PRODUCTION MANAGER What They Can Control: Inventory • Suppliers • Production Calendar • 30

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 31

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 32

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 33

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 34

External Influences

WHY CONTROL DATA Accounts for external pressures Improves forecast Provides context 36

SIMPLE WITH DOMO 37

EXTERNAL PRESSURES Unemployment Interest rates Construction Weather Consumer Confidence 38

IMPROVES FORECAST Without Proper Control Data With Ready Signal Control Data Control data can significantly improve accuracy of models, but is often underutilized based on required effort and knowledge. 39

DOES A 60-DEGREE DAY MEAN FEWER MOTORCYCLE SALES? 40

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 43

PRODUCTION MANAGER VIEW 44

EXECUTIVE TEAM What Matters to Them: Sales • Profitability • Growth • 45

EXECUTIVE TEAM What They Can Control: Strategy • Resources • Budgets • Competitive Positioning • 46

EXECUTIVE TEAM VIEW 47

EXECUTIVE TEAM VIEW 48

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS Solve Provide Domo 49

THANK YOU & join us at our virtual booth!