Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys Vice President, Edmonton Economic Development Corporation Outline The Fundamental Issues Oil Sands as Driver Immigration Migration Employment Trends

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Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006

Prepared By:

Myron Borys Vice President, Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 2

Outline

  • The Fundamental Issues

– Oil Sands as Driver – Immigration – Migration – Employment Trends

  • Possible Solutions
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The Labour Issue – a Snapshot

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 4

Current Labour Market

  • Alberta’s economy has been one of the strongest in

Canada and continues to strengthen.

  • By 2015, it is forecast that 400,000 new jobs will be

created, but only 300,000 new workers are expected to enter the labour market leaving a shortfall of 100,000 workers.

  • In 2005, Alberta had:

the lowest unemployment rate: 3.9% the highest participation rate: 72.8% the highest employment rate: 69.9%

People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 5

Future Alberta Labour Challenges

  • Aging population

– Baby boomers retiring by 2010 – By 2026, 20% of the population will be over 65

  • Declining population growth

– In the past decade, fertility rates are 1.7 well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

  • New jobs require higher skills and education

– 60% of Alberta jobs will require a post-secondary education.

  • Greater competition for labour
  • from other provinces and globally
  • Decreasing participation rates

– If 2005 trend continues it will exacerbate job shortages

People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 6

Projected GDP Growth Edmonton

Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 2.7% 8.1% 4.2% 1.2% 7.0% 3.1% 3.6% 2.8% 4.3% 5.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 f 2 7 f 2 8 f 2 9 f 2 1 f Annual Growth Rate

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Fundamental Issue #1: The Oil Sands

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 8

Oilsands Related Employment Growth – Edmonton CMA

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Total Employment

Pre Post Pre-trend Post-trend

"Declaration of Opportunity" Signed for Oilsands D l t J 77,400

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 9

Oilsands Capital Expenditures Will Continue …

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 In m illio n s

Proposed & Committed Expenditures Probability Adjusted Expenditures

Source: Alberta Economic Development, September 2004

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Fundamental Issue #2: Low Immigration to Edmonton

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 11

International Immigration

  • According to Statistics Canada between July 1, 2003 and June

30, 2004:

– 239,116 immigrants entered Canada – 17,071 immigrants entered Alberta

  • 4813 immigrants came to Edmonton in 2003, only 30 % of

immigrants to Alberta.(Citizenship & Immigration Canada)

  • Recent immigrants to Edmonton had an employment rate of

76.1 % and their unemployment rate was 5.9 %.

(City of Edmonton, March 2005)

  • 60% of immigrants do not find employment in their area
  • f expertise.

(AHRE)

There is a real opportunity to attract more immigrants, and get them productive sooner through recognition of professional designations. There is a real opportunity to attract more immigrants, and get them productive sooner through recognition of professional designations.

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Fundamental Issue #3: Migration from other Provinces

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 13

Unemployment Rate Edmonton and Canada

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f Edmonton Canada

The unemployment rate in Canada has declined substantially increasing the challenge of attracting migrants from other provinces. The unemployment rate in Canada has declined substantially increasing the challenge of attracting migrants from other provinces.

Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 14

Alberta Population Growth

Alberta Alberta’ ’s Population Growth Components s Population Growth Components – – (1991

(1991 – – 2004) 2004)

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 1991- 1992 1992- 1993 1993- 1994 1994- 1995 1995- 1996 1996- 1997 1997- 1998 1998- 1999 1999- 2000 2000- 2001 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2003- 2004 Period

Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Net International

Note:These statistics do not include individuals from the Temporary Foreign Worker Program

People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 15

Albertans migrate 5 Times more than Quebecers per capita

Total Inter-Provincial Migration Per Capita

Albera, B.C., Ontario and Quebec

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Movements Per Thousand Population Quebec Ontario Alberta British Columbia

5X

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Fundamental Issue #4: Employment and Participation Rates

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 17

Employment Growth

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006f 2008f 2010f

StatCan CBOC

Required?!

Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table 282-0053; The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 18

Summary of 2005 Labour Force Changes

(Thousands)

Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.6% Participation Rate 72.7% 70.7%

2004 2005 Change in 2005 from 2004

Working age population 801.5 816.3

14.8

Labour Force 583 577.4

  • 5.8

Employment 555.1 551.1

  • 4.0

Full-time 457.8 450.6

  • 7.2

Part-time 97.4 100.5 3.2 Unemployed 27.8 26.3

  • 1.5

Not in workforce 218.5 238.9

20.3 Indicates that the Edmonton market is at full employment

Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review, 2004; Statistics Canada, Monthly Labour Force Data, 2005

Employment

≠

Jobs Employment

≠

Jobs

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 19

Participation Rates

60.00% 62.00% 64.00% 66.00% 68.00% 70.00% 72.00% 74.00% 76.00% 2005

  • Mar. 2006

Canada AB Edmonton Calgary

Why are people in Edmonton taking themselves

  • ut of the workforce????

Why are people in Edmonton taking themselves

  • ut of the workforce????
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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 20

Possible Employment Scenario?

  • 60,000
  • 50,000
  • 40,000
  • 30,000
  • 20,000
  • 10,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oilsands Related Other Actual

A 30,000 decline in employment as a result of a curtailment of

  • ilsands construction would

increase unemployment by about 5%

Construction – Cyclical Industry! Need to Diversify!

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 21

Edmonton Employment Change

  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 Thousands

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Big Thinking Needed to Address these Issues

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 23

EWC Initiatives

Communication

  • On-line Labour Market Information – Feb

2006

  • Labour Attraction Website targetting

migrants and immigrants – May 2006

  • Labour Attraction Magazine – Sept 2006
  • Monthly Electronic Labour Market News –

March 2006 Aboriginal People

  • Aboriginal Forum - March 16, 2006

Migrants

  • Migrant study to explain high movement

in and out of Edmonton

  • Secondary immigrant recruitment

campaign targeting Toronto and Vancouver

  • Cooperative recruiting by groups of

employers targeting similar employees Apprentices

  • Train Journeymen to better mentor

apprentices and increase apprentice retention

  • Pre-employment Training for apprentices

to make them work-ready Immigrants

  • Hold Foreign Worker Readiness Seminars
  • Targeted Immigration Missions
  • City of Edmonton Immigrant Council
  • International Student Retention Campaign

Secondary School Students

  • Parent Presentations (March – May 2006
  • Students In-Site Program to showcase

real workplaces to students

  • Career Influencers Communication

Process

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 24

Labour Market Initiatives

Labour Issue Focus Marketing Edmonton Focus

City of Edmonton Brand/Marketing $480K EEDC Skilled Labour Initiatives $250K Media Plan GAP: New Focused Labour Attraction Marketing Initiatives < $1M GAP?: $5M/Year Image Campaign Low High High

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www.edmonton.com

May 11, 2006 Footer Page 25

Strategic Opportunities

  • 1. Productivity Improvements
  • Reduce labour dependence – AUTOMATE!
  • Outsourcing a good option?
  • 2. Increase international migration
  • Attract more people
  • Make them productive sooner
  • 3. Increase intra-provincial in migration
  • Attract more Canadians
  • 4. Decrease intra-provincial out migration
  • Stop the churn!