Earnings Presentation
Quarter ended March 2020
7 May 2020 15:30 GMT
Confidential
Replay 0207 136 9233 0800 032 9687 Replay passcode 70133577#
Earnings Presentation Quarter ended March 2020 Replay Replay - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Earnings Presentation Quarter ended March 2020 Replay Replay passcode 7 May 2020 0207 136 9233 70133577# 0800 032 9687 15:30 GMT Confidential Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by NewDay Cards Limited on behalf of NewDay Group
Quarter ended March 2020
7 May 2020 15:30 GMT
Confidential
Replay 0207 136 9233 0800 032 9687 Replay passcode 70133577#
Confidential 1
This presentation has been prepared by NewDay Cards Limited on behalf of NewDay Group (Jersey) Limited (the “Company”) on a confidential basis solely for information purposes. For the purposes of this notice, the presentation that follows shall mean and include the slides that follow, the oral presentation of the slides by the Company or any person on behalf of the Company, any question and answer sessions that follows the oral presentation, printed copies of this document and any materials distributed at, or in connection with the presentation (collectively, this “Presentation”). By attending the meeting at which this Presentation is made, or by reading this Presentation, you will be deemed to have (i) agreed to the following restrictions and made the following undertakings and (ii) acknowledged that you understand the legal and regulatory sanctions attached to the misuse, disclosure or improper circulation of this Presentation. All financial information contained in this Presentation relates to the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company (and not, except where expressly stated to the case, NewDay BondCo plc). Due to rounding, numbers presented throughout this Presentation may not add up precisely to the totals indicated and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures for the same reason. All non-financial information contained in this Presentation relates to the business, assets and operations
data included in this presentation consists of “non-IFRS financial measures”. These non-IFRS financial measures, as defined by the Company, may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures as presented by other companies, nor should they be considered as an alternative to the historical financial results or
are used by management to assess the Company’s financial position, financial results and liquidity and these types of measures are commonly used by investors, they have important limitations as analytical tools, and you should not consider them in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of the Company’s financial position or results of operations as reported under IFRS. The inclusion of such non-IFRS financial measures in this Presentation or any related presentation should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by the Company, any member of the Group, any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of such information’s portrayal of the financial condition or results of operations of the Company and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. References to Adjusted EBITDA throughout this Presentation are references to “Consolidated EBITDA” as defined in the legal documentation relating to the £425m Senior Secured Notes issued by NewDay BondCo plc on 25 January 2017 (the Senior Secured Debt) and the Super Senior Revolving Credit Facility entered into by the Company on 25 January 2017 (the Revolving Credit Facility) based on IFRS as in force as at 31 March 2020 (or, in respect of periods ending prior to 31 March 2020, IFRS at the relevant time). However, all ratios, baskets and calculations required under the terms of the Senior Secured Debt and Revolving Credit Facility are based on IFRS as in force as at 25 January 2017. As a result, such ratios, baskets and calculations may differ significantly from any ratios or figures which are contained in this
Presentation have been calculated (subject to certain adjustments) in accordance with IFRS as in force as at 31 March 2020 (or, in respect of periods ending prior to 31 March 2020, IFRS at the relevant time). As a result, such figures will differ significantly from the calculation of Consolidated Senior Secured Net Leverage Ratio and Fixed Charge Corporate Debt Coverage Ratio (as defined under the terms of the Senior Secured Debt and Revolving Credit Facility). This Presentation may contain forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this Presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements express the Company’s current expectations and projections relating to their financial condition, results of
limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including words such as “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “can have,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “likely,” “may,” “plan,” “project,” “should,” “target,” “will,” “would” and other words and terms of similar meaning or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Company’s control that could cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from the expected results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which it will
Presentation may become outdated as a result. The information contained in this Presentation should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time and will not be updated to reflect material developments that may occur after the date
Presentation and are subject to change without notice. None of the Company, any member of the Group, any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this Presentation
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1 Business update John Hourican (CEO) 2 Portfolio performance Ian Corfield (CCO) 3 Credit performance Rob Holt (CCCO) 4 Financial results Paul Sheriff (CFO) 5 Q&A
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(Q119: 1.6m)
app downloads to date
(Q119: 67)
Net Promoter Score
Deko acquisition successfully completed
(Q119: £1.3bn)
total spend
Implemented COVID-19 response plan
(Q119: 275k)
new accounts
31 7 (33) (6) (2) (4) Q119 Underlying Performance Macro Debt Sale Payment holidays Q120 83 48 12.7% 6.3% Q119 Q120 RAI RAM COVID-19 impairment impact 48 41 89 11.8% Q120 1,588 1,753 1,754 942 1,160 1,101 81 113 120 2,611 3,026 2,975 Q119 Q419 Q120 UPL Co-brand Own-brand (3) 26 30 56 Q119 Q120 RCF Drawdown (£m) Cash (£m)
Confidential
14% year on year increase in receivables £56m increase in cash during Q120 21% increase in EBITDA (excl. COVID-19 impairment build) RAM reduction primarily due to COVID-19 impairment build
Net (decrease) / increase in cash and cash equivalents* (£m) Closing receivables (£m) Risk adjusted income (£m)
Strong underlying business performance offset by COVID-19 impairment build
4
↑16% ↓2%
£41m COVID-19 impairment impact
*Includes excess cash drawn under VFNs which was repaid during April 2020
Adjusted EBITDA (£m)
48 17 3 (27) (6) (2) Q119 Underlying Macro Debt Sales Payment holiday Q120 1,588 1,754 Q119 Q120
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Ongoing customer engagement in digital offering £3m RAI growth offset by £35m COVID-19 impairment build
New accounts (k)
(Q119: 1.2m) total app downloads
86%
(Q119: 79%) customers registered for e-servicing
Closing receivables (£m)
COVID-19 impairment build has had a £35m impact on RAI
122 118 Q119 Q120 110 124 62 108 Q119 Q120 Total Income (£m) Impairment (£m) RAI:£17m RAI:£48m
↑10%
Stable new account generation and strong receivables growth
£35m COVID-19 impairment build Q120 RAM was 3.8% (Q119: 12.3%) Risk adjusted income (£m)
36 31 2 (6) (1) Q119 Underlying Macro Debt Sales Q120 942 1,101 Q119 Q120
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£2m RAI growth offset by £7m COVID-19 impairment build COVID-19 impairment build has had a £7m impact on RAI Ongoing customer engagement in digital offering
(Q119: 0.4m) total app downloads
55%
(Q119: 43%) customers registered for e-servicing
New accounts (k) Closing receivables (£m) 147 157 Q119 Q120
↑17%
Stable new account generation and strong receivables growth
£7m COVID-19 impairment build RAI:£36m RAI:£31m 47 55 11 24 Q119 Q120 Total Income (£m) Impairment (£m) Q120 RAM was 11.0% (Q119: 14.9%) Risk adjusted income (£m)
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Our digital capabilities have allowed us to implement 100% remote working We continue to service our customers utilising our digital platforms We have provided support to the community via our charity partner We continue to support our retail partners
remotely
majority of systems cloud based
average NPS for the 4 weeks ending 26/04/20
average NES for the 4 weeks ending 26/04/20
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We are monitoring customer trends on a daily basis We have put a number of initiatives in place to support our customers
payment holiday/freezes
We have taken appropriate measures to protect the Group against risk
and have amended certain initial credit limits
proactive credit limit increases offers have been temporarily suspended during lockdown
in line with FCA guidance
11.6% 18.1% 1.1% 5.5% (0.1%) Q119 Charge-offs Covid-19 provision Underlying performance Q120
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110bps increase in charge-off rate vs Q119 (40bps vs FY19) One off DCA exit debt sale favourably impacted Q119 charge-offs
14.4% 15.1% 15.7% 3.6% 4.4% 5.0% 10.3% 11.0% 11.4% Q119 2019 Q120 Own-brand Co-brand Group 10.3% 11.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Q119 One off DCA exit debt sale Insolvencies Underlying performance Q120
Significant increase in impairment rate driven by COVID-19 550bps of impairment rate increase related to COVID-19
16.6% 7.9% 2.3% 11.6% 11.6% 18.1% 15.7% 4.5% 15.6% 4.6% 24.5% 8.3% 6.0%
Q119 2019 Q120 COVID-19 Co-brand Own-brand Group
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12% increase in ECL† during the quarter driven by base macro increase of £73m partially offset by macro uplift reduction of £23m
↑18%
20.7% 22.9% 4.4% 5.7% 14.0% 16.0% 2019 Q120 Own-brand Co-brand Group
200bps increase in coverage rate since year end 140bps of coverage rate increase due to COVID-19
14.0% 16.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2019 Macro Debt Sales Payment holidays Seasonality Q120 COVID-19 impacts
400 473 495 440
200 300 400 500 600 Q419 Q120
Base scenario and sensitivities (£m)
Base scenario Upside Downside 1
Q419 Q120 Base scenario 400 473 Macro uplift 25 2 ECL allowance 425 475
425 33 6 2 9 475
ECL Allowance (£m)
* Max/Min and Average taken over 5 year forecast period
† ECL: Expected Credit Loss
Max/Min* Average* Mar-20 Upside 6.0%/3.9% 4.2% 440 4% Base 6.0%/3.9% 5.1% 473 83% Downside 1 7.4%/3.9% 6.1% 495 12% Downside 2 8.3%/3.9% 7.5% 539 1% ECL (£m) assuming 100% weighting Probability weighting 5Y forward unemployment Average 5Y unemployment in Q120 baseline
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Payment freezes: Key features Payment holidays: Key features
Payment holiday and payment freeze volumes saw an initial spike but are beginning to reduce
0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%
28/02/20
06/03/20
13/03/20
20/03/20
27/03/20
03/04/20
10/04/20
17/04/20
24/04/20
Number of new payment holiday/freezes (% of total card customers)
Payment holidays Payment freezes 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
28/02/20
06/03/20
13/03/20
20/03/20
27/03/20
03/04/20
10/04/20
17/04/20
24/04/20
Volume of new payment holiday/freezes (% of card receivables)
Payment holidays Payment freezes
PH 2% PF 1% Total 3% Cumulative PH 6% PF 4% Total 10% Cumulative
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Diverse funding portfolio with substantial capacity Funding maturity profile spread across multiple years
*undrawn capacity in Q119 includes £30m RCF
Drawn balance sheet debt (£m) 425 425 425 425 1,779 1,883 1,779 1,883 1,425 1,525 461 739 30 30 30 994 786 3,659 3,863 3,659 3,863 Q119 Q120 Q119 Q120 Commitment Drawings Senior Secured Debt Issued bonds VFN RCF Undrawn capacity* Balance sheet debt (£m)
Drawn: £3,077m Drawn: £2,665m
150 275 424 756 703 56 358 326 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Senior Secured Debt Issued bonds Drawn VFN £m 2020 2021 2022 Own-brand 442 599 468 Co-brand 38 433 562 UPL
480 1,113 1,030 OB 2017-1 228 Jul-20 (with 1Y extension option) OB 2018-1 USD 75 Aug-20 (with 1Y extension option) OB 2018-2 USD 121 Dec-20 (with 1Y extension option) VFN 56 Dec-20 (with 1Y extension option) Total 480
All 2020 maturities have 1Y extension
for detail.
Additional £200m VFN capacity secured in April 2020 bringing the total to £986m
74 487 255 44 558 332 637 305 150 50 Q119 Q120 Additional funding secured in April Own-brand Co-brand UPL
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Total Group cash of £264m VFN headroom of £786m with a further £200m added in April Healthy excess spread Advance rates Own-brand
(Q119: 83.9%) Co-brand
(Q119: 90.9%) Group
(Q119: 85.8%) Own-brand
(Q119: 14.3%) Co-brand
(Q119: 12.5%) Group
(Q119: 13.8%)
Excess spread: Key trigger across funding vehicles, broadly defined as debited interest and fee income, less net charge-offs, funding costs and senior servicing fees. Excess spreads shown exclude VFNs and Secondary Funding facilities as they are not directly comparable. Excess spread figures for these facilities are broadly similar with the exception of NP Secondary Funding Facility VFN at c10%
VFN headroom (£m) 50 56 24 46 106 162 181 264 Q119 Q120 Cash (£m) Excess cash from VFNs (£m) Restricted cash (£m)
1 8 9 9 Q119 Q120 CCMS Strategic Change Spend (including VCP)
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530bps decrease in cost-income ratio Ongoing reduction in servicing costs as % average receivables Continued investment in digital capability
(Q119: 39%) Customers registered for e-statements
(Q119: 53%) Customers registered for e-servicing
Change costs (£m) Cost-income ratio
VCP: Value Creation Plan – business-wide review highlighting areas for accelerated investment CCMS: Project costs associated with CCMS implementation
159 184 34.6% 29.3% 55 54 Q119 Q120 Income Costs Cost-income ratio 23 25 3.6% 3.3% Q119 Q120 Servicing Costs Servicing costs / average receivables
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Total income
(Q119: £159m)
Strong income growth driven by increased receivables
Impairment rate
(Q119: 11.6%)
Impairment rate increase driven by the impacts of COVID-19
Adjusted EBITDA
(Q119: £31m)
EBITDA reduction driven by the significant increase in impairment
Adjusted EBITDA (excl. COVID-19)
(Q119: £31m)
21% underlying EBITDA increase year
£m Q119 Q120 2019 LTM Q120 Interest income 160 185 674 699 Cost of funds (15) (16) (64) (65) Fee and commission income 15 15 66 67 Total income 159 184 676 701 Impairment (76) (136) (318) (379) Risk-adjusted income 83 48 358 323 Servicing costs (23) (25) (95) (97) Change costs (5) (9) (25) (29) Value Creation Plan implementation costs (4)
(9) Marketing and partner payments (16) (13) (60) (58) Collection fees 7 8 29 30 Contribution 42 9 194 161 Salaries, benefits and overheads (14) (15) (59) (60) Add back: depreciation and amortisation 2 2 9 9 Adjusted EBITDA 31 (4) 144 110 Adjusted EBITDA (excl. COVID-19 impairment) 31 37 144 151 Average gross receivables 2,607 3,007 2,752 2,843 Gross interest and fee yield (%) 26.7% 26.6% 26.9% 26.9% Impairment (%) 11.6% 18.1% 11.6% 13.3% RAM (%) 12.7% 6.3% 13.0% 11.3% EBITDA leverage 1.9x 2.3x EBITDA leverage (excl. excess cash from VFNs) 2.0x 2.7x EBITDA interest cover 4.5x 3.4x
£m Q119 Q120 2019 LTM Q120 Adjusted EBITDA 31 (4) 144 110 Change in impairment provision 11 50 18 57 Adjusted EBITDA excl. provision 42 46 163 167 Change in working capital* (10) (29) (7) (27) One-off House of Fraser payment** (15)
(3) (1) (15) (13) Capital expenditure (2) (3) (10) (11) Tax paid (2) (6) (10) (15) FCF available for growth and debt service 10 6 106 102 (Increase)/decrease in gross receivables 6 43 (423) (386) Net financing cash flow (7) 1 367 375 FCF available for Senior Secured Debt interest 10 50 50 90 Drawdown of RCF
Repayment of shareholder loan ‡
Debt service - cash payments (13) (13) (32) (32) Net (decrease) / increase in cash and cash equivalents (3) 56 18 77
Confidential 16 *£(21m) of working capital movement relates to timing of net spend/(repayment) balances waiting to be transferred from a banking partner over the period end. This was larger than normal due to a reduction in spend towards the end of March (COVID-19 impacted) relative to the balance between spend and payments at the end of December 2019. **Year on year cash flow is impacted by the payment for in-store House of Fraser customer spend relating to the period 10/08/18 to 05/03/19 that was settled post novation of the contract to Sports Direct in Q119. £15m of this payment related to customer spend from 10/08/18 to 31/12/18
‡ Payment to the Group’s immediate parent company, Nemean
MidCo Limited, which was used by Nemean MidCo Limited to fund its purchase, and other related costs, of a controlling stake in Pay4Later Limited (trading as Deko)
† As at Q120, excess cash from VFN drawdowns was £46m
(Q419: £13m). This was repaid during April
Q120 cash bridge
46 50 (29) (10) (1) 33 10 Adjusted EBITDA excl. provision Working capital Capex/Tax PPI Excess cash from VFNs Movement in receivables FCF available for Senior Secured Debt interest
†
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includes the interest charge and other costs associated with the issuance and servicing of Senior Secured Notes and the Revolving Credit Facility
assets arising on the Acquisition: represents a write- down of the carrying value of the Group’s retail relationship with Laura Ashley following its administration
costs to be refunded, net of third party contributions to customers following an operational incident which arose due to NewDay receiving incomplete information from a third party
value adjustments on the Group’s acquired portfolios and debt issued
amortisation of the intangible assets recognised on the acquisition of the Group by funds advised by Cinven and CVC in January 2017
£m Q119 Q120 2019 LTM Q120 Adjusted EBITDA 31 (4) 144 110 Senior Secured Debt interest and related costs (8) (9) (34) (34) Impairment of retail partner relationships intangible assets arising on the Acquisition
Customer refund provision
Fair value unwind
Depreciation and amortisation including amortisation of Acquisition intangibles (15) (15) (60) (61) Statutory (LBT)/PBT 7 (32) 50 11
Own-brand income statement Co-brand income statement UPL income statement £m £m £m Interest income 110 124 Interest income 47 56 Interest income 3 6 Cost of funds (10) (10) Cost of funds (5) (6) Cost of funds (1) (1) Fee and commission income 10 10 Fee and commission income 4 5 Fee and commission income
110 124 Total income 47 55 Total income 2 5 Impairment (62) (108) Impairment (11) (24) Impairment (3) (5) Risk-adjusted income 48 17 Risk-adjusted income 36 31 Risk-adjusted income (1) (0) Servicing costs (10) (11) Servicing costs (13) (13) Servicing costs (0) (0) Change costs (3) (5) Change costs (2) (3) Change costs (0) (1) Value Creation Plan implementation costs (2)
implementation costs (2)
implementation costs (0)
(5) (3) Marketing costs (10) (10) Marketing costs (0) (0) Collection fees 5 5 Collection fees 3 3 Collection fees
33 2 Contribution 11 8 Contribution (2) (2) Average gross receivables 1,576 1,755 Average gross receivables 958 1,134 Average gross receivables 73 118 Gross interest and fee yield (%) 30.4% 30.5% Gross interest and fee yield (%) 21.3% 21.5% Gross interest and fee yield (%) 17.5% 18.7% Impairment (%) 15.7% 24.5% Impairment (%) 4.5% 8.3% Impairment (%) 18.1% 17.0% RAM (%) 12.3% 3.8% RAM (%) 14.9% 11.0% RAM (%) (6.0)% (0.7)% Q119 Q120 Q119 Q120 Q119 Q120
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£m Q119 Q120 2019 Gross receivables 2,611 2,975 3,026 Impairment provision (418) (475) (425) Other 93 117 109 Net receivables 2,286 2,617 2,710 Restricted cash 50 56 54 Cash 131 208 152 Intangible assets 302 250 266 Goodwill 280 280 280 Other assets 111 105 81 Total assets 3,159 3,516 3,542 Asset-backed term debt 1,778 1,885 1,865 Variable funding notes 462 740 740 Senior Secured Debt 430 460 435 PPI provision 22 9 10 Other provisions 11 7 11 Other liabilities* 91 58 86 Total liabilities 2,794 3,159 3,147 Net assets 365 357 396
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Own-brand and Co-brand open books
introduced £396m of intangible assets, primarily relating to the customer and retailer relationships, the brand, trade names and intellectual property. The carrying value of these assets was £233m at Mar-20
issued by the Own-brand and Co-brand master trust structures
the five VFNs across the Group
the RCF (£30m)
*Other liabilities includes capitalised debt funding fees
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was predominantly driven by reduced EBITDA
£m Q119 Q120 2019 LTM Q120 Adjusted EBITDA 31 (4) 144 110 Senior Secured Debt 425 455 425 455 Cash (131) (208) (152) (208) Net corporate Senior Secured Debt 294 247 273 247 EBITDA leverage 1.9x 2.3x EBITDA leverage (excl. excess cash from VFNs) 2.0x 2.7x Senior corporate interest expense 32 32 EBITDA interest cover 4.5x 3.4x
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ABS: Asset-backed security Adjusted EBITDA: Earnings before Senior Secured Debt interest (and related costs), tax, depreciation and amortisation Advance rate: (ABS + VFN drawn debt)/Gross receivables CCMS: Credit Card Market Study ECL: Expected Credit Loss Excess spread: Key trigger across funding vehicles, broadly defined as debited interest and fee income, less net charge-offs, funding costs and senior servicing fees FCF: Free cash flow NP Secondary Funding Facility: NewDay Partnership Secondary Funding Facility RAI: Risk-adjusted income RAM: Risk-adjusted margin RCF: Revolving credit facility UPL: Unsecured Personal Loans VCP: Value Creation Plan – business-wide review highlighting areas for accelerated investment VFN: Variable funding note
Investor Relations Team investor.relations@newday.co.uk