Earnings Presentation August 5, 2011 Revised to reflect final GAAP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Earnings Presentation August 5, 2011 Revised to reflect final GAAP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation August 5, 2011 Revised to reflect final GAAP financials filed on August 8, 2011 1 August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act


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SLIDE 1

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

1

Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation

August 5, 2011

Revised to reflect final GAAP financials filed on August 8, 2011

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SLIDE 2

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

2

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, ongoing EBITDA, and cash earnings), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’, Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this

  • information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to

place undue reliance on these statements. PNM Resources’, PNM’s, and TNMP’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are

  • ften beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

These factors include: Conditions affecting the Company’s ability to access the financial markets and the Company’s or Optim Energy LLC’s (“Optim Energy”) ability to negotiate new credit facilities for those expiring in 2012, including disruptions in the credit markets and actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings, the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory, or contractual restrictions, the impacts of decreases in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense, the recession and its impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers, state and federal regulatory, legislative, and judicial decisions and actions, including the outcomes of PNM’s pending electric rate case and transmission rate case, and appeals of prior regulatory proceedings, the ability of PNM to successfully defend the utilization of a future test year in its electric rate filings with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including PNM’s ability to withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors, the ability of the Company to successfully forecast and manage its operating and capital expenditures, particularly in the context of a future test year rate case with respect to PNM, the ability of PNM and TNMP to recover their costs and earn their allowed returns in their regulated jurisdictions, the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the NMPRC, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters, the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its emergency fuel and purchased power adjustment clause will not be approved by the NMPRC, the risk that PNM may not be able to recover the increased costs of rights-of-way renewals on Native American lands through rates charged to customers, the ongoing risks relating to PNM Resources’ ownership interest in Optim Energy, uncertainties surrounding PNM Resources’ assessments of strategic alternatives for its competitive businesses, FCP Enterprises, Inc. (“First Choice”) and Optim Energy, the risk that Optim Energy requires additional financial sources to expand its generation capacity, or otherwise, but is unable to identify and implement profitable acquisitions or that PNM Resources and ECJV Holdings, LLC will not agree to make additional capital contributions to Optim Energy, state and federal regulation or legislation relating to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, coal combustion byproducts, nitrogen oxide, and other power plant emissions, including the risk that the Company and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements, including possible future requirements to address regional haze regulations and related Best Available Retrofit Technology requirements and concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM and Optim Energy have interests, the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (“PVNGS”), the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Power Plant, and Optim Energy generating units, transmission systems, and distribution systems, which could be negatively affected by major equipment failures, major weather disruptions, disruptions in fuel supply, and other significant

  • perational issues, financial and operational risks at PVNGS relating to the regulatory review and actions in response to the events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan,

the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns, uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and Optim Energy and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs from customers, uncertainty surrounding the status of PNM’s participation in jointly-owned generation projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2016 and potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects, the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding available transmission capacity may reduce certain PNM transmission rights used to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers resulting in a need to purchase additional transmission capacity, reduce sales of transmission capacity, or operate generation less economically, changes in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (“ERCOT”) protocols, changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice and changes in the retail price of power in ERCOT, the ability of First Choice to attract and retain customers, collections experience, fluctuations in interest rates, weather, water supply, changes in fuel costs, availability of fuel supplies, the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions, seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power, the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage, variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices, volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets, uncertainty regarding the

  • ngoing validity of government programs for emission allowances, changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry, the outcome of legal proceedings, the extent of insurance

coverage available for claims made in litigation, changes in applicable accounting principles, and the performance of state, regional, and national economies.

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SLIDE 3

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

3

Opening Remarks & Overview

Pat Vincent-Collawn

President and CEO

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SLIDE 4

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

4

Second Quarter Financial Highlights

Q2 2011 Q2 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2010 Ongoing EPS: $0.20 $0.21 $0.24 $0.27 GAAP EPS: $0.04(1) $0.25 $0.22(1) $0.16

 Regulated utilities ongoing EPS improves vs. 2010  First Choice Power performance strong, but as expected lower in 2011  Optim impacted by low-price ERCOT market  2011 consolidated earnings guidance range affirmed

(1) GAAP results reflect regulatory disallowances associated with final PNM rate case written order.

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SLIDE 5

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

5

PNM TNMP Residential 0.6% 4.5% C&I (including other) 1.8%

  • 1.3%

Total Retail 1.4% 1.5% Customer Growth 0.5% 0.8% Q2 2011 vs Q2 2010

(1) (2)

Weather-normalized KWh

(3)

Load Growth

Load continues to trend upward

Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth

(1) Excluding Economy Service customers (2) Excluding Transmission Service (3) Based on end-use consumers

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SLIDE 6

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

6

Regulatory Update

 PNM rate case written order

  • Increases annual base revenues by $72.1M
  • Eliminates phase-in approach
  • Eliminates $20M capital additions rider in 2013
  • Resets “stay out” period to July 2013
  • Subject to agreement by parties to stipulation

 TNMP AMS case

  • Stipulation approved, rider to be in effect August 11
  • $0.01 incremental EPS annually

Committed to making progress toward

  • ur goal of earning allowed ROE
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SLIDE 7

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

7

Competitive Businesses First Choice Power

  • Strong commercial sales
  • New marketing programs to expand residential and

commercial portfolios

  • Residential customer count up nearly 2%

Optim Energy

  • Mitigating low-priced market with good plant performance

at Twin Oaks and Cogen; alternative fuel burn at Twin Oaks

  • Continued focus on cost-control, liquidity management

and cash flow

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SLIDE 8

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

8

Financial Overview

Chuck Eldred

Executive Vice President & CFO

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SLIDE 9

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

9

Q2 2011 Financial Summary (Ongoing)

Ongoing EPS down $0.01 from Q2 2010

$0.21 $0.20 $0.04 $0.02 ($0.02) ($0.04) ($0.01) Q2 2010 Q2 2011

Ongoing EPS

PNM First Choice Power Optim Energy Other (1) TNMP

(1) Due to rounding

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SLIDE 10

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

10

Regulated Businesses: Q2 2011 EPS (Ongoing)

PNM Electric TNMP

Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Lower outage costs $0.04 PV Nuclear Decommissioning Trust $0.04 Load growth $0.01 PV3 toll expiration ($0.07) Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Rate relief $0.03 Weather $0.01

$0.12 $0.14 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 $0.04 $0.08 Q2 2010 Q2 2011

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SLIDE 11

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

11

First Choice Power

(In millions)

Optim Energy(1) (100%)

(In millions)

Competitive Businesses: Q2 2011 EBITDA (Ongoing)

(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy; gains and

losses of Optim Energy are equally shared by the owners.

Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Lower customer prices ($6.0) Favorable weather and higher average customer usage $5.7 Higher marketing costs ($2.6) Other $0.1

$17.3 $14.5 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 $17.8 $3.9 Q2 2010 Q2 2011

Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Twin Oaks contract expiration ($9.1) Length of planned outage ($6.0) Market and fuel prices $1.2

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SLIDE 12

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

12

Rate Case – PNM Ongoing Earnings Impact

(In millions, except EPS)

Mid-Aug. thru Dec.

2011E 2012E Revenues $31 $72 After-tax $19 $43 EPS impact $0.20 $0.47 Incremental EPS $0.20 $0.27

(1) Based on NMPRC written order, issued on August 8, 2011.

Assumes Mid-Aug. implementation of rates(1)

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SLIDE 13

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

13

2011 Guidance (Ongoing)

$0.80 Consolidated EPS(1) $0.92

Regulated $0.89 - $0.96

PNM $0.62 - $0.67 TNMP $0.27 - $0.29

Competitive $0.06 - $0.16

First Choice Power $0.28 - $0.35 Optim Energy(2) ($0.22) – ($0.19)

Corp/Other ($0.17) - ($0.15)

(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive (2) PNMR Share 50%

Ongoing EBITDA

  • First Choice Power: $43M - $53M
  • Optim Energy (100%): $20M - $30M

Cash Earnings

  • Consolidated PNM Resources: $365M - $390M
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SLIDE 14

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

14

Key Strategic Goals and Checklist

Earn Authorized Return on Our Regulated Businesses Return to Solid Investment Grade Credit Ratings at PNMR

 Achieve successful outcomes in:

  • PNM retail rate case
  • PNM FERC transmission rate case
  • TNMP AMS case

 Maintain strong electric reliability and

power plant availability

 Control O&M and capital costs

Maximize the Value of Our Competitive Businesses

 Maintain profitability of First Choice

Power by achieving customer growth and increasing retention

 Conserve Optim Energy cash and

position generation assets to capitalize as market conditions improve

 Become fully investment grade at:

  • PNM
  • TNMP
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SLIDE 15

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011

15

Questions & Answers

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SLIDE 16

Appendix

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SLIDE 17

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-2

PNM Plant EAF and Outages

* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council

2011 & 2012 Outage Schedule 69.9% 79.7% 79.0% 82.4% 73.9% 85.6%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Coal 90% Nuclear 92%

Unit Duration (days) Time Period 1 50 Q1 - Q2 2011 4 13 Q2 2011 2 47 Q1 2012 3 47 Q1 - Q2 2012 5 24 Q2 2011 4 13 Q4 2011 5 13 Q4 2012 2 44 Q2 2011 1 45 Q4 2011 3 44 Q2 2012 2 44 Q3 - Q4 2012 San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

(Coal) (Nuclear) (Coal)

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SLIDE 18

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-3

Optim Energy Plant Availability

95.0% 95.4% 89.8% 86.0% 99.9%

Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4

Q2 2010 Q2 2011

0.0% (1) Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Lignite 90% Combined Cycle 92%

(1) On March 11, 2011, the Cedar Bayou 4 facility was forced into an unplanned outage due to a mechanical failure.

* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council.

(Lignite) (Combined-Cycle) (Combined-Cycle)

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SLIDE 19

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-4

Optim Energy EBITDA

Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 June 30, 2011 GAAP Net Earnings (12.7) $ (30.9) $ Interest expense 4.0 8.0 Income tax 0.1 0.1 Depreciation and amortization expense 13.1 24.7 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedges (5.9) (2.6) Purchase accounting amortizations 5.3 11.5 Ongoing Optim Energy EBITDA 3.9 10.8 50 percent of Ongoing EBITDA (PNMR share) 2.0 $ 5.4 $ (in millions)

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SLIDE 20

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-5 $135 $123 $115 $120 $121 $111 $111 $107 $101 $106 $88 $17 $16 $18 $17 $17

$12 $13 $12 $11 $9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(In millions)

T&D PNM Generation PNM Renewables Other (Primarily IT) TNMP Advanced Metering System

$363 $263 $252 $249 $253

(1)

PNMR 5-Year Capital Plan as of Q2 2011

(1) Unanimously approved by the PUCT on July 8, 2011

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SLIDE 21

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-6

Unemployment Rates

U.S.

6.8% 8.2% 9.2% NM TX US

June 2011, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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SLIDE 22

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-7

Regulatory Information

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SLIDE 23

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-8

NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat Patrick Lyons Chairman District 2 2014 Republican Jerome Block Vice Chairman District 3 2012 Democrat Theresa Becenti-Aguilar District 4 2014 Democrat Ben Hall District 5 2014 Republican

NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas

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SLIDE 24

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-9

Utility Rate Base and Return

PNM Retail Current Rates March 31, 2008 $1.5B(2) 50% 10.5% Implied N/A Written Order Rates June 30, 2010 $1.8B 51.28% 10% $72.1M PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates(3)

  • Dec. 31, 2011

$171.0M 49.4% 12.25% $11.1M TNMP Current Retail Rates March 31, 2010 $448.2M 45% 10.125% $10.3M Increase Test Period (1) Allowed Equity Ratio Rate Base ROE

(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Excludes PNM South (formerly TNMP-New Mexico) rate base (3) Rates implemented June 1, 2011, subject to refund pending final order by FERC

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SLIDE 25

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-10

Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics

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SLIDE 26

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-11

Selected Balance Sheet Information

(1) Excludes debt from affiliate.

Tables may not appear visually accurate due to rounding.

Dec 31, Jun 30,

2010 2011

(In millions)

Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)

PNM 1,055.7 $ 1,055.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.7 PNMR 199.8 199.8 Consolidated 1,565.8 $ 1,566.2 $

Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1)

PNM 1,245.7 $ 1,328.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.7 PNMR 231.8 230.8 Consolidated 1,787.8 $ 1,870.2 $

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SLIDE 27

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-12 PNM Resources (1) PNM Separate TNMP Separate PNM Resources Consolidated (In millions) Financing Capacity: Revolving credit facility $ 542.0 $ 386.0 $ 75.0 $ 1,003.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0

  • 5.0

Total Capacity 547.0 386.0 75.0 1,008.0 Short-term debt & LOC balances 91.9 327.2 0.3 429.4 Remaining availability 455.1 58.8 74.7 578.6 Invested cash 10.3 10.7

  • 21.0

Available Liquidity as of 8/2/11 $ 465.4 $ 69.5 $ 74.7 $ 599.6 As of 8/2/11:

Liquidity as of August 2, 2011

(1) Includes First Choice Power (2) On Aug. 15, 2011, the PNMR facility will be reduced by $25M. On Aug. 17, 2011, the PNM facility will be reduced by $18M.

(2)

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SLIDE 28

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-13

Credit Ratings

Senior Unsecured Debt

S&P PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 Outlook: Stable

TNMP First Mortgage Bonds

S&P BBB- Outlook: Stable Moody's Baa1 Outlook: Stable

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SLIDE 29

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-14

Environmental Compliance

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SLIDE 30

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

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Environmental Control Equipment at Coal Units

PNM

Coal Unit PNM Share Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers

San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X Four Corners Unit 4 97.5 X X Four Corners Unit 5 97.5 X X

(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M

environmental upgrade.

(2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental

upgrade.

Optim Energy

Coal Unit Total Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers

Twin Oaks Unit 1 152 X X Twin Oaks Unit 2 153 X X

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SLIDE 31

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-16

Impact of Proposed Environmental Regulation

Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments

San Juan Generating Station Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) ~$345M - $460M EPA approved plan on Aug. 5, PNM to appeal decision Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) ~$36M Filed with EPA Region 6 on June 24 Mercury Rules None to minimal Plant already at 91% Clean Water Act - 316(b) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Clean Air Act – Regional Haze ~$69M APS in negotiations with EPA Mercury Rules (MACT) Slight exposure APS evaluating options Clean Water Act – 316(b) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance Palo Verde Clean Water Act – 316(b) None to minimal Closed system

Estimated Compliance Costs (Optim 100%) Comments

Optim Energy Mercury Rules (Twin Oaks) Minimal $1M in capital Clean Water Act – 316(b) (Cedar Bayou 4) Slight exposure Evaluating options CSPR (Twin Oaks) ~$2M - $6M May need to purchase more limestone and ammonia

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SLIDE 32

August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011

A-17

 Before August 15, 2011

  • Gina Jacobi, Director of IR
  • 505-241-2211; Gina.Jacobi@pnmresources.com

 After August 15, 2011

  • Lisa Eden, Assistant Treasurer and Director of IR
  • 505-241-2691; Elisabeth.Eden@pnmresources.com

 Financial Media Contact:

  • Frederick Bermudez
  • 505-241-4831; Frederick.Bermudez@pnmresources.com

Investor Relations Contacts