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Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation
August 5, 2011
Revised to reflect final GAAP financials filed on August 8, 2011
Earnings Presentation August 5, 2011 Revised to reflect final GAAP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation August 5, 2011 Revised to reflect final GAAP financials filed on August 8, 2011 1 August 5, 2011 REVISED: August 8, 2011, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
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Revised to reflect final GAAP financials filed on August 8, 2011
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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, ongoing EBITDA, and cash earnings), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’, Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this
place undue reliance on these statements. PNM Resources’, PNM’s, and TNMP’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are
These factors include: Conditions affecting the Company’s ability to access the financial markets and the Company’s or Optim Energy LLC’s (“Optim Energy”) ability to negotiate new credit facilities for those expiring in 2012, including disruptions in the credit markets and actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings, the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory, or contractual restrictions, the impacts of decreases in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense, the recession and its impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers, state and federal regulatory, legislative, and judicial decisions and actions, including the outcomes of PNM’s pending electric rate case and transmission rate case, and appeals of prior regulatory proceedings, the ability of PNM to successfully defend the utilization of a future test year in its electric rate filings with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including PNM’s ability to withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors, the ability of the Company to successfully forecast and manage its operating and capital expenditures, particularly in the context of a future test year rate case with respect to PNM, the ability of PNM and TNMP to recover their costs and earn their allowed returns in their regulated jurisdictions, the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the NMPRC, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters, the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its emergency fuel and purchased power adjustment clause will not be approved by the NMPRC, the risk that PNM may not be able to recover the increased costs of rights-of-way renewals on Native American lands through rates charged to customers, the ongoing risks relating to PNM Resources’ ownership interest in Optim Energy, uncertainties surrounding PNM Resources’ assessments of strategic alternatives for its competitive businesses, FCP Enterprises, Inc. (“First Choice”) and Optim Energy, the risk that Optim Energy requires additional financial sources to expand its generation capacity, or otherwise, but is unable to identify and implement profitable acquisitions or that PNM Resources and ECJV Holdings, LLC will not agree to make additional capital contributions to Optim Energy, state and federal regulation or legislation relating to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, coal combustion byproducts, nitrogen oxide, and other power plant emissions, including the risk that the Company and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements, including possible future requirements to address regional haze regulations and related Best Available Retrofit Technology requirements and concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM and Optim Energy have interests, the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (“PVNGS”), the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Power Plant, and Optim Energy generating units, transmission systems, and distribution systems, which could be negatively affected by major equipment failures, major weather disruptions, disruptions in fuel supply, and other significant
the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns, uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and Optim Energy and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs from customers, uncertainty surrounding the status of PNM’s participation in jointly-owned generation projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2016 and potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects, the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding available transmission capacity may reduce certain PNM transmission rights used to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers resulting in a need to purchase additional transmission capacity, reduce sales of transmission capacity, or operate generation less economically, changes in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (“ERCOT”) protocols, changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice and changes in the retail price of power in ERCOT, the ability of First Choice to attract and retain customers, collections experience, fluctuations in interest rates, weather, water supply, changes in fuel costs, availability of fuel supplies, the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions, seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power, the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage, variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices, volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets, uncertainty regarding the
coverage available for claims made in litigation, changes in applicable accounting principles, and the performance of state, regional, and national economies.
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(1) GAAP results reflect regulatory disallowances associated with final PNM rate case written order.
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PNM TNMP Residential 0.6% 4.5% C&I (including other) 1.8%
Total Retail 1.4% 1.5% Customer Growth 0.5% 0.8% Q2 2011 vs Q2 2010
(1) (2)
Weather-normalized KWh
(3)
(1) Excluding Economy Service customers (2) Excluding Transmission Service (3) Based on end-use consumers
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PNM First Choice Power Optim Energy Other (1) TNMP
(1) Due to rounding
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Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Lower outage costs $0.04 PV Nuclear Decommissioning Trust $0.04 Load growth $0.01 PV3 toll expiration ($0.07) Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Rate relief $0.03 Weather $0.01
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(In millions)
(In millions)
(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy; gains and
losses of Optim Energy are equally shared by the owners.
Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Lower customer prices ($6.0) Favorable weather and higher average customer usage $5.7 Higher marketing costs ($2.6) Other $0.1
Q2 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Twin Oaks contract expiration ($9.1) Length of planned outage ($6.0) Market and fuel prices $1.2
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(In millions, except EPS)
(1) Based on NMPRC written order, issued on August 8, 2011.
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PNM $0.62 - $0.67 TNMP $0.27 - $0.29
First Choice Power $0.28 - $0.35 Optim Energy(2) ($0.22) – ($0.19)
(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive (2) PNMR Share 50%
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power plant availability
Power by achieving customer growth and increasing retention
position generation assets to capitalize as market conditions improve
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* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council
2011 & 2012 Outage Schedule 69.9% 79.7% 79.0% 82.4% 73.9% 85.6%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Coal 90% Nuclear 92%
Unit Duration (days) Time Period 1 50 Q1 - Q2 2011 4 13 Q2 2011 2 47 Q1 2012 3 47 Q1 - Q2 2012 5 24 Q2 2011 4 13 Q4 2011 5 13 Q4 2012 2 44 Q2 2011 1 45 Q4 2011 3 44 Q2 2012 2 44 Q3 - Q4 2012 San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
(Coal) (Nuclear) (Coal)
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95.0% 95.4% 89.8% 86.0% 99.9%
Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4
Q2 2010 Q2 2011
0.0% (1) Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Lignite 90% Combined Cycle 92%
(1) On March 11, 2011, the Cedar Bayou 4 facility was forced into an unplanned outage due to a mechanical failure.
* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council.
(Lignite) (Combined-Cycle) (Combined-Cycle)
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Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 June 30, 2011 GAAP Net Earnings (12.7) $ (30.9) $ Interest expense 4.0 8.0 Income tax 0.1 0.1 Depreciation and amortization expense 13.1 24.7 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedges (5.9) (2.6) Purchase accounting amortizations 5.3 11.5 Ongoing Optim Energy EBITDA 3.9 10.8 50 percent of Ongoing EBITDA (PNMR share) 2.0 $ 5.4 $ (in millions)
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A-5 $135 $123 $115 $120 $121 $111 $111 $107 $101 $106 $88 $17 $16 $18 $17 $17
$12 $13 $12 $11 $9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(In millions)
T&D PNM Generation PNM Renewables Other (Primarily IT) TNMP Advanced Metering System
$363 $263 $252 $249 $253
(1)
(1) Unanimously approved by the PUCT on July 8, 2011
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U.S.
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Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat Patrick Lyons Chairman District 2 2014 Republican Jerome Block Vice Chairman District 3 2012 Democrat Theresa Becenti-Aguilar District 4 2014 Democrat Ben Hall District 5 2014 Republican
NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas
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PNM Retail Current Rates March 31, 2008 $1.5B(2) 50% 10.5% Implied N/A Written Order Rates June 30, 2010 $1.8B 51.28% 10% $72.1M PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates(3)
$171.0M 49.4% 12.25% $11.1M TNMP Current Retail Rates March 31, 2010 $448.2M 45% 10.125% $10.3M Increase Test Period (1) Allowed Equity Ratio Rate Base ROE
(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Excludes PNM South (formerly TNMP-New Mexico) rate base (3) Rates implemented June 1, 2011, subject to refund pending final order by FERC
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(1) Excludes debt from affiliate.
Tables may not appear visually accurate due to rounding.
Dec 31, Jun 30,
2010 2011
(In millions)
Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)
PNM 1,055.7 $ 1,055.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.7 PNMR 199.8 199.8 Consolidated 1,565.8 $ 1,566.2 $
Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1)
PNM 1,245.7 $ 1,328.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.7 PNMR 231.8 230.8 Consolidated 1,787.8 $ 1,870.2 $
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A-12 PNM Resources (1) PNM Separate TNMP Separate PNM Resources Consolidated (In millions) Financing Capacity: Revolving credit facility $ 542.0 $ 386.0 $ 75.0 $ 1,003.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0
Total Capacity 547.0 386.0 75.0 1,008.0 Short-term debt & LOC balances 91.9 327.2 0.3 429.4 Remaining availability 455.1 58.8 74.7 578.6 Invested cash 10.3 10.7
Available Liquidity as of 8/2/11 $ 465.4 $ 69.5 $ 74.7 $ 599.6 As of 8/2/11:
(1) Includes First Choice Power (2) On Aug. 15, 2011, the PNMR facility will be reduced by $25M. On Aug. 17, 2011, the PNM facility will be reduced by $18M.
(2)
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S&P PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 Outlook: Stable
S&P BBB- Outlook: Stable Moody's Baa1 Outlook: Stable
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Coal Unit PNM Share Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers
San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X Four Corners Unit 4 97.5 X X Four Corners Unit 5 97.5 X X
(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M
environmental upgrade.
(2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental
upgrade.
Coal Unit Total Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers
Twin Oaks Unit 1 152 X X Twin Oaks Unit 2 153 X X
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Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments
San Juan Generating Station Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) ~$345M - $460M EPA approved plan on Aug. 5, PNM to appeal decision Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) ~$36M Filed with EPA Region 6 on June 24 Mercury Rules None to minimal Plant already at 91% Clean Water Act - 316(b) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Clean Air Act – Regional Haze ~$69M APS in negotiations with EPA Mercury Rules (MACT) Slight exposure APS evaluating options Clean Water Act – 316(b) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance Palo Verde Clean Water Act – 316(b) None to minimal Closed system
Estimated Compliance Costs (Optim 100%) Comments
Optim Energy Mercury Rules (Twin Oaks) Minimal $1M in capital Clean Water Act – 316(b) (Cedar Bayou 4) Slight exposure Evaluating options CSPR (Twin Oaks) ~$2M - $6M May need to purchase more limestone and ammonia
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