E Folibl6 tublic PMr Prdkl Recop of August Finclnciql Forecost* E - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Finoncicl I Forecqst Updote

October 22,20.l 9

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Foliêbl6 tublic PôMr Prdklã

Recop of August Finclnciql Forecost*

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July

Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome

Oct t 2.9%

ß2

ro6

$o.7M $9.9M 1O1

124

$ro.9M $9.6M

Oct r

2.4%

113

$rz.8M

129

$6.7M

129

$ro.tM

Oct t

Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome

2.97"

$o.4M $ro.rM

$tt.zM

5oth

2020

5oth

2021

5oth

2022

5oth

2O23

Description

2019

MTM

Significqnt U ncertoinly August

95

97

1o^4

lower end of plonning torgets

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*Forecast details located ín the Appendix to this presentation

October Forecost U pdqtes

N et Power Cost

NPC lncreas e from August to October

ln millions

August October lncreose

Í9o.7 $9t.3

$o.ó

$Bt.s $8t.8

$0.3 $80.9

$gt.2

$0.3

$Bt.ó

$92.7

$t.l

$94.0 $83.8 ($0.2) $418.7 $c2o.g Summory of lncreo¡e

July/Augusl NPC Actuqls

Morket Condilions

Totol

$0.óM

$t.5M

$2.t M

,[Ê ercentile

eors ot 50th

• ll

Forecq sl

20t9

2020

2021

2022 2023

Tolol

October Forecost U pd otes

r

• o lncorporates 2o2o Preliminary Budget
• o Updates to 2o1gi
• o Revenues (íncorporates YTD actuals)
• o Expenses (incorporates YTD actuals)
• o Capital - Estimating $3M cash flow zo19 carryover to 2ozo
• o Either costs not incurred, or incurred but not yet paid
• oAffects DCOH at end of zorg only
• o Does not change overall multi-year forecast
• o Uncertaínties remain
• o Winter Temperature
• o Future water years
• o Future unknown capítal needs

EETNN

• fl.lt.0 ß

October Finoncio I Forecost*

5oth

2021

5oth

2O23

Descríption

2O19 MTM

Significqnl U ncertointy

5oth

2020

Soth

2022 July

August

Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome Proiected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome

Oct t 2.9%

1o2

I o6

1o1

124

$o.7M $9.9M $ro.gM $9.6M

Oct t 2.9%

97

$o.4M

Oct t Oct t

2.4%

95

$tt.zM

129

$6.7M

129

$to.rM

1c.4

$ro,tM

113

$rz.8M

2,9%

$o.3nn $9.8M

$tz.zM

114

125

M $ro.zM

$tt.6

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October

Apr t 2.9%

93

105

gg Lower end of plonning lorgels

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*Forecast details located in the Appendix to this presentation

October Forecqst U pd otes

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• o N et Power Costs
• o Two scenaríos presented with October update
• o 2o2o at 5oth percentile
• o gB1.BM
• o 2o2o at z5th percentile (amount included in zozo Budget)
• o gB4.oM

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October Finoncio I Forecost*

2O2O:50th v. 25'h Percentile for Net Power Costs

Apr t 2.9% MTM 2O19 5oth

2020

5oth

2O23

DescriptÍon Significont Uncerloinly

5oth

2022

5oth

2021

October October

Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome

Oct t 2.9%

105

$o.3M 99 $g.gM

93

$'lz.zM

114

$rt.6M

125

$to.zM

Oct t 2.9%

105

$o.3M

93

$7.6M 9o $r3.3M

115

$r3.rM

130

$n.7M

Apr t 4.1%

Descriptíon

MTM 2O19 z5th

2020

5oth

2021

5oth 20^22 5oth

2O23

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*Forecast details located in the Appendix to this presentation

Sensitivity Ancllysis

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n What if some of the variables change?

n Staff has created 3 different scenarios

tr Net Revenue reductions

tr AII years presented at 5oth percentile

Scenqrio

2019 2020

2021

2022 2023

Totol t

2 3

$0.25M $0.5M $0.75¡n $1.0M $2.0M $3.oM

$t.oM

$2.0M $3.0M $1.0M $2.0M $3.0M $1.0M $2.0M $3.0M $4.25M $8.5M

$ I 2.75M

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Sens¡t¡vity Anolysis Scenorios*

MTM 2O19 5oth

2020

5oth

2021

5oth

2022

5oth

2O23

DescrÍption Significqnl Uncerlointy

Scenario t

($q.zSM Total)

Scenario z

($8.sM Total)

Scenario 3

($tz.ZSM Total)

Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net Income Projected Rate lncrease

Days Cash on Hand

Net lncome

Oct t 2.9%

104

$o.oM

Oct t 2.9%

103

$(o.znn)

Oct 1

2.9% 103

g6 $8.8M

Oct t 2.9%

94 $8.7M

Apr r 2.9%

95

$9.7M

Apr t 4.3%

9o $rz.5M

Apr t 2.9% 91

$r3.7M

Apr t 2.9%

9o $tz.7M

r6

$r3.rM

131

$rr.7M

113

',lZ6

$rz.3M $1o.9

112

124

$tz.rM $ro.7M

$(o.sM)

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*Forecast details located in the Appendix to this presentation

Discussion

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End of Presentotion

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