E CONOMI C DE VE L OPME NT YE AR 1, UNI VE RSI T Y OF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

E CONOMI C DE VE L OPME NT YE AR 1, UNI VE RSI T Y OF WAT E RL OO

ST AT E O F T HE NO RT H

22 JUNE 2018, T HUNDER BAY

Ove rvie w

• I

ntro duc tio n to No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute

• T

he E c o no my of O nta rio’s Northe rn Re g ions

• E

XE RCI SE 1

• BRE

AK

• De mo g ra phic s o f Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn Re g io ns
• E

duc a tio n in Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn Re g io ns

• E

mplo yme nt in Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn Re g io ns

• I

nc o me in Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn Re g io ns

• Mig ra tio n in Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn Re g io ns
• E

XE RCI SE 2

• CONCL

UDE

Onta rio ’ s No rthe rn E c o no mic Re g io ns

Wha t is NPI ?

• “T

hink ta nk”

• I

nde pe nde nt – a utho rs a re fre e fro m inte rfe re nc e fro m e ve ryo ne , inc luding us

• No n-pa rtisa n – we do no t ta ke “side s”
• E

vide nc e b a se d – we c o lle c t, me a sure a nd inte rpre t da ta

• I

N the No rth – we de a l with lo c a l, re g io na l, pro vinc ia l, na tio na l a nd inte rna tio na l issue s fro m a no rthe rn pe rspe c tive

• No t a n a dvo c a c y g ro up

T hre e wa ys YO UR issue g e ts o n

O UR to -do list

• 1. T
• p T

e n No rthe rn I ssue s:

No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute is the ONL Y T hink T a nk in Ca na da tha t se ts its re se a rc h a g e nda b a se d o n fe e db a c k we re c e ive fro m o ur sta ke ho lde rs, a ll 780,000 o f the m. I f yo ur issue is sha re d b y yo ur frie nds a nd ne ig hb o urs, it will like ly g e t o nto o ur to -do list.

• 2. Sing le Windo w o n No rthe rn I

ssue s:

YOU do the wo rk, c o mmissio n the study, a nd yo u se nd it to us fo r re -pub lic a tio n o r disse mina tio n. Big pa rts o f o ur jo b invo lve a vo iding wa ste ful duplic a tio n o f e ffo rt a nd g e tting the wo rd o ut a b o ut wha t ha s a lre a dy b e e n do ne .

• 3. Willing to Pa rtne r – b ut no g ua ra nte e s:

NOT a c o nsulting se rvic e , b ut will pa rtne r – in c a sh, o r in kind – to e xpe dite ne e de d wo rk. We just c a n’ t pro mise yo u will like the a nswe r.

Sa mple Pub lic a tio ns

Sa mple T

• o ls

Mapping the North:

• http://www.northernpolicy.ca/boundarymap
• http://www.northernpolicy.ca/infrastructuremap
• Other Maps of Interest

A QUI CK VI SI T – (ASSUMI NG T E CHNOL OGY WORK S)

NPI .COMMUNI T YACCOUNT S.CA

T HE E CONOMY

T he E c o no mic Ba se

So me GDP Gro wth Amid the F luc tua tio ns

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y (c a nsim ta b le 282-0125), a nd GDP

e stima tio ns (c a nsim T a b le 382-0004)

T he E c o no mic Ba se

…Hiding Sig nific a nt Cha ng e s in I ndustrie s

Pub lic a dministra tio n Othe r se rvic e s Ac c o mmo da tio n a nd fo o d se rvic e s I nfo rma tio n, c ulture a nd re c re a tio n He a lth c a re a nd so c ia l a ssista nc e E duc a tio na l se rvic e s Busine ss, b uilding a nd o the r suppo rt se rvic e s Pro fe ssio na l, sc ie ntific a nd te c hnic a l se rvic e s F ina nc e , insura nc e , re a l e sta te a nd le a sing T ra nspo rta tio n a nd wa re ho using T ra de Ma nufa c turing Co nstruc tio n Utilitie s F

• re stry, fishing , mining , q ua rrying , o il a nd g a s

Ag ric ulture

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000

NORT HE AST

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000

NORT HWE ST

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y (c a nsim ta b le 282-0125), a nd GDP

e stima tio ns (c a nsim T a b le 382-0004)

2001 2016

GDP BY I NDUST RY (2007 CHAI

NE D DOL L ARS, I N MI L L I ONS)

GDP b y Go o ds-Pro duc ing I ndustry(Cha ine d 2007 Do lla rs x1,000,000)

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e

Surve y (Ca nsim T a b le 282-0125), a nd GDP e stima tio ns (382-0004)

No rthe a st No rthwe st

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AGRI CUL T URE

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

F ORE ST RY, F I SHI NG, MI NI NG, QUARRYI NG, OI L AND GAS

200 400 600 800 1000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

UT I L I T I E S

500 1000 1500 2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CONST RUCT I ON

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MANUF ACT URI NG

GDP b y Se rvic e -Pro duc ing I ndustry (Cha ine d 2007 Do lla rs x1,000,000) (1)

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y (Ca nsim T

a b le 282-0125), a nd GDP e stima tio ns (382-0004)

No rthe a st No rthwe st

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

T RADE (WHOL E SAL E & RE T AI L )

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

T RANSPORT AT I ON & WARE HOUSI NG

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

F I NANCE , I NSURANCE , RE AL E ST AT E & L E ASI NG

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PROF E SSI ONAL , SCI E NT I F I C & T E CHNI CAL SE RVI CE S

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

I NF ORMAT I ON, CUL T URE & RE CRE AT I ON

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HE AL T H CARE & SOCI AL ASSI ST ANCE

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

E DUCAT I ONAL SE RVI CE S

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BUSI NE SS, BUI L DI NG & OT HE R SUPPORT SE RVI CE S

GDP b y Se rvic e -Pro duc ing I ndustry (Cha ine d 2007 Do lla rs x1,000,000) (2)

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y (Ca nsim T

a b le 282-0125), a nd GDP e stima tio ns (382-0004)

No rthe a st No rthwe st

GDP b y Se rvic e -Pro duc ing I ndustry (Cha ine d 2007 Do lla rs x1,000,000) (3)

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y (Ca nsim T

a b le 282-0125), a nd GDP e stima tio ns (382-0004)

No rthe a st No rthwe st

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

ACCOMMODAT I ON & F OOD SE RVI CE S

100 200 300 400 500 600

OT HE R SE RVI CE S

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

PUBL I C ADMI NI ST RAT I ON

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

Gro wth in the T

• ta l Numb e r o f Busine sse s

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Busine ss Co unts.

6.2% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 4.1% 1.9% 0.8% 1.2% 8.4% 3.8% 2.9% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2012-2013 2013-2014 2015-2016 2016-2017

YE AR-OVE R-YE AR CHANGE I N NUMBE R OF BUSI NE SSE S (JUNE OF E ACH YE AR*)

No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio

*As the me tho do lo g y to c o lle c t da ta fo r Busine ss Co unts c ha ng e d g re a tly in De c e mb e r 2014, it is no t po ssib le to c a lc ula te the ye a r-o ve r-ye a r c ha ng e fo r June 2014- June 2015, a nd re a de rs sho uld a na lyze this da ta with c a utio n.

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

Gro wth in E ve ry Distric t in the T

• ta l Numb e r o f Busine sse s

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Busine ss Co unts.

6,610 4,203 1,090 1,628 12,094 2,709 5,814 7,351 10,587 1,745 4,195 6,710 4,395 1,148 1,633 12,341 2,717 5,858 7,450 10,789 1,777 4,292 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

NUMBE R OF BUSI NE SSE S BY DI ST RI CT (JUNE OF E ACH YE AR)

2015 2017

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

A De c re a sing Numb e r o f Ba nkruptc ie s

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n I ndustry Ca na da , Offic e o f the Supe rinte nde nt o f Ba nkruptc y.

155 156 151 101 59 39 39 29 42 50 10 59 51 41 43 20 22 14 15 11 9 12 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NUMBE R OF BUSI NE SS BANK RUPT CI E S

No rthe a st No rthwe st

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

Mo re I nve stme nt in I nstitutio na l Building s, le ss in Co mme rc ia l tha n Onta rio

DI ST RI BUT I ON BY T YPE S OF NON-RE SI DE NT I AL BUI L DI NG PE RMI T S (VAL UE ), AVE RAGE OVE R T HE 2000-2016 PE RI OD

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume r Pric e I nde x

40.6% 29.0% 47.2% 22.3% 20.9% 21.6% 37.1% 50.0% 31.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio Co mme rc ia l I ndustria l I nstitutio na l

• 28.2%
• 22.9%
• 1.2%
• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CUMUL AT E D GROWT H OF NON-RE SI DE NT I AL BUI L DI NG PE RMI T S VAL UE (I N 2016 DOL L ARS)

No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

Ne g a tive Gro wth in the Va lue o f No n-Re side ntia l Building Pe rmits

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume r Pric e I nde x

I nve stme nt a nd Busine ss Attra c tio n

Ne g a tive Gro wth in the Va lue o f No n-Re side ntia l Building Pe rmits

Co mme rc ia l I ndustria l I nstitutio na l VAL UE OF NON-RE SI DE NT I AL BUI L DI NG PE RMI T BY T YPE (I N 2016 DOL L ARS, I N MI L L I ONS)

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

NORT HE AST

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

NORT HWE ST

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume r Pric e I nde x

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000

GRE AT E R SUDBURY

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000

MANI T OUL I N DI ST RI CT

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

PARRY SOUND DI ST RI CT

Va lue o f No n-Re side ntia l Building Pe rmits (I n 2016 Do lla rs x1,000) (1)

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume rPric e I nde x

Co mme rc ia l I ndustria l I nstitutio na l

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000

NI PI SSI NG DI ST RI CT

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000

T I MI SK AMI NG DI ST RI CT

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000

SUDBURY DI ST RI CT

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

COCHRANE DI ST RI CT

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

AL GOMA DI ST RI CT

Va lue o f No n-Re side ntia l Building Pe rmits (I n 2016 Do lla rs x1,000) (2)

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume rPric e I nde x

Co mme rc ia l I ndustria l I nstitutio na l

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000

K E NORA DI ST RI CT

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000

RAI NY RI VE R DI ST RI CT

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000

T HUNDE R BAY DI ST RI CT

Va lue o f No n-Re side ntia l Building Pe rmits (I n 2016 Do lla rs x1,000) (3)

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , I nve stme nt a nd Ca pita l Sto c k Divisio n, a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume rPric e I nde x

Co mme rc ia l I ndustria l I nstitutio na l

E XE RCI SE NUMBE R ONE

DE MOGRAPHI CS

Nipissing , -2.0% T imiska ming , -14.7% Co c hra ne , -14.5% Alg o ma , -9.1% T hunde r Ba y, -7.3% Ra iny Rive r, -13.2% Onta rio , 25.1%

• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

CUMUL AT I VE POPUL AT I ON GROWT H SI NCE 1996 BY DI ST RI CT

De mo g ra phic s

Ne g a tive Po pula tio n Gro wth in So me Distric ts…

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio n b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, Va rio us Ye a rs.

Pa rry So und, 7.3% Ma nito ulin, 16.1% Sudb ury, -15.4% Gre a te r Sudb ury, -1.5% K e no ra , 3.5% Onta rio , 25.1%

• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

CUMUL AT I VEPOPUL AT I ON GROWT H SI NCE 1996 BY DI ST RI CT

De mo g ra phic s

… But Po sitive Gro wth in Othe rs

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio n b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, Va rio us Ye a rs.

29.9% 40.0% 34.9% 37.3% 27.3% 31.4% 28.5% 34.1% 30.2% 31.6% 30.2% 24.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

POPUL AT I ON 65 YE ARS OL D AND OVE R AS A PE RCE NT AGE OF T HE T OT AL POPUL AT I ON

1996 2016 2036

De mo g ra phic s

An Ag ing Po pula tio n in E ve ry Distric t

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio n b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, va rio us ye a rs, a nd Onta rio Ministry o f F ina nc e s Po pula tio n Pro je c tio ns

De mo g ra phic s

Yo ung a nd Gro wing I ndig e no us Po pula tio n…

So urc e : Autho r’ s e stima te s b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da ’ s 2006 Ce nsus Mic ro da ta file (Mo a zza mi & Cuddy Distric t re po rts) No rthe a st, 27.2% No rthwe st, 38.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

CUMUL AT E D GROWT H OF T HE I NDI GE NOUS POPUL AT I ON - PROJE CT I ONS

De mo g ra phic s

… T ha t Will Re pre se nt a n I nc re a sing Sha re o f the L a b o ur F

• rc e

So urc e : Autho r’ s e stima te s b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da ’ s 2006 Ce nsus Mic ro da ta file (Mo a zza mi & Cuddy Distric t re po rts) 10.8% 22.8% 27.4% 11.6% 11.7% 39.7% 10.3% 6.3% 8.1% 14.6% 4.5% 16.2% 37.3% 37.4% 15.4% 17.9% 53.7% 12.0% 7.4% 9.7% 22.1% 6.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

I NDI GE NOUS SHARE OF T HE T OT AL L ABOUR F ORCE

• PROJE

CT I ONS

2013 2031

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n Ha s Be e n De c re a sing in Mo st o f the No rthe rn Distric ts…

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, va rio us ye a rs

Nipissing , -10.0% T imiska ming , -15.7% Co c hra ne , -14.5% Alg o ma , -25.0% T hunde r Ba y, -24.6% Ra iny Rive r, -31.9% K e no ra , -22.8% Onta rio , 10.0%

• 35%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 2001 2006 2011 2016

CUMUL AT I VE GROWT H OF T HE F RANCOPHONE POPUL AT I ON, BY DI ST RI CT (1)

Pa rry So und, 13.6% Ma nito ulin, 48.1% Sudb ury, -27.9% Gre a te r Sudb ury,

• 3.5%

Onta rio , 10.0%

• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2001 2006 2011 2016

CUMUL AT I VE GROWT H OF T HE F RANCOPHONE POPUL AT I ON, BY DI ST RI CT (2)

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n

… But in Pa rry So und a nd Ma nito ulin Distric ts

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, va rio us ye a rs

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n

T he F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n is Olde r T ha n the Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, 2016 42% 38% 32% 31% 29% 29% 26% 25% 25% 22% 21% 19% 25% 19% 24% 14% 22% 27% 20% 19% 22% 18% 17% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

PROPORT I ON OF POPUL AT I ON OVE R 65 YE ARS OL D, 2016

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

E DUCAT I ON & SK I L L S

E duc a tio n a nd Skills

L

• we r Huma n Ca pita l I

nde x tha n Onta rio , b ut I ne q ua litie s Be twe e n Po pula tio n Gro ups E xist

So urc e : Cuddy & Mo a zza mi, 2016, No rthe rn Pro je c tio ns – Huma n Ca pita l Se rie (No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute )

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

HUMAN CAPI T AL I NDE X, 2011

T

• ta l Po pula tio n

I mmig ra nts F ra nc o pho ne s I ndig e no us Pe o ple

(Co mpariso n pe nding fo r 2016 data)

I mmig ra nt Po pula tio n

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho usho ld Surve y *Data no t displaye d fo r S udbury as data is suppre sse d fo r this distric t due to the lo w numbe r o f immigrants **I mmigrant he re re fe rs to pe rso ns who c ame to Canada fro m abro ad in the last 5 ye ars

73.5% 91.7% 80.0% 87.9% 63.6% 68.8% 72.9% 79.5% 83.3% 50.0% 73.3% 61.6% 55.9% 60.4% 64.4% 53.6% 55.9% 59.9% 61.7% 55.7% 52.4% 64.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Nipissing Pa rry So und Ma nito ulin Gre a te r Sudb ury T imiska ming Co c hra ne Alg o ma T hunde r Ba y Ra iny Rive r K e no ra Onta rio

AT T AI NME NT OF A POST SE CONDARY CE RT I F I CAT E , DI PL OMA OR DE GRE E F OR T HE POPUL AT I ON AGE S 25-64, 2011

I mmig ra nts T

• ta l Po pula tio n

I n the 11 no rthe rn distric ts, a hig he r pe rc e nta g e o f immig ra nts ho ld a po stse c o nda ry c e rtific a te , diplo ma , o r de g re e tha n the to ta l po pula tio n a nd the Onta rio a ve ra g e .

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n

I n K e no ra a nd Pa rry-So und Distric t, a L a rg e r Pro po rtio n o f the F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n Ha s a Po st-Se c o nda ry E duc a tio n T ha n the Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PE RCE NT AGE OF T HE 25-64 YE ARS OL D POPUL AT I ON WI T H POST

• SE

CONDARY E DUCAT I ON, 2011

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

T HE L ABOUR MARK E T

Pro po rtio n o f full-time jo b s inc re a se d in No rthe rn Onta rio

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da . T a b le 282-0123 - L a b o ur fo rc e surve y e stima te s (L F S), a nnua l

79.0% 80.6% 78.7% 79.1% 82.2% 81.0% 72% 73% 74% 75% 76% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

F UL L

• T

I ME E MPL OYME NT AS A PE RCE NT AGE OF T OT AL E MPL OYME NT

No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio

A Brig ht Spo t: Yo uth E mplo yme nt Ra te s

30 35 40 45 50 55

YOUT H E MPL OYME NT RAT E (%) (15 T O 19 YE ARS)

55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75

YOUT H E MPL OYME NT RAT E (%) (20 T O 24 YE ARS)

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y, c usto m ta b ula tio n

No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio

Hig he r pa rtic ipa tio n a nd e mplo yme nt ra te in the No rthwe st

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da . T a b le 282-0123 - L a b o ur fo rc e surve y e stima te s (L F S), a nnua l 65.2% 62.5% 60.5% 58.5% 67.3% 65.0% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%

PART I CI PAT I ON RAT E

60.4% 58.2% 55.5% 54.3% 63.0% 60.7% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

E MPL OYME NT RAT E

No rthe a st No rthwe st Onta rio

Sta b le o r I nc re a sing Pa rtic ipa tion Ra te in Gre a te r Sudb ury, Ra iny Rive r & K e no ra , Ma nito ulin, Sudb ury & T imiska ming Distric ts

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y, 2 ye a rs

mo ving a ve ra g e , c usto m ta b ula tio n

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%

ST ABL E OR I NCRE ASI NG

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%

DE CRE ASI NG

PART I CI PAT I ON RAT E BY DI ST RI CT

Ma nito ulin, Sudb ury, & T imiska ming Distric ts Sudb ury Re g io na l Munic ipa lity Co c hra ne Distric t Ra iny Rive r & K e no ra Distric ts Onta rio Alg o ma Distric t T hunde r Ba y Distric t Nipissing Distric t

Sta b le o r I nc re a sing Em ploym e nt Ra te in Gre a te r Sudb ury, Ra iny Rive r & K e no ra , Ma nito ulin, Sudb ury & T imiska ming Distric ts

E MPL OYME NT RAT E BY DI ST RI CT

Ma nito ulin, Sudb ury, & T imiska ming Distric ts Sudb ury Re g io na l Munic ipa lity Co c hra ne Distric t Ra iny Rive r & K e no ra Distric ts Onta rio Alg o ma Distric t T hunde r Ba y Distric t Nipissing Distric t

45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

DE CRE ASI NG

45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

ST ABL E OR I NCRE ASI NG

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , L a b o ur F

• rc e Surve y, 2 ye a rs

mo ving a ve ra g e , c usto m ta b ula tio n

52% 51% 57% 53% 46% 45% 50% 53% 44% 47% 48% 45% 50% 51% 58% 55% 49% 51% 56% 60% 51% 55% 57% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

E MPL OYME NT RAT E OF T HE I NDI GE NOUS POPUL AT I ON COMPARE D T O T HAT OFT HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011

I ndig e no us Po pula tio n Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

I ndig e no us E mplo yme nt Ra te

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n

BEL O W ABO VE

56% 56% 59% 50% 54% 56% 48% 48% 54% 50% 44% 36% 55% 56% 60% 51% 56% 58% 50% 51% 57% 55% 51% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

E MPL OYME NT RAT E OF F RANCOPHONE S COMPARE D T O T HAT OF T HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011 F ra nc o pho ne s Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

F ra nc o pho ne E mplo yme nt Ra te

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n

BEL O W ABO VE

I mmig ra nt E mplo yme nt Ra te

*Da ta fo r Sudb ury Distric t wa s no t a va ila b le So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n 69% 67% 66% 59% 54% 54% 52% 46% 40% 32% 57% 55% 56% 55% 60% 58% 51% 51% 49% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% K e no ra Ra iny Rive r T hunde r Ba y Nipissing Onta rio Gre a te r Sudb ury Alg o ma T imiska ming Ma nito ulin Pa rry So und

E MPL OYME NT RAT E OF I MMI GRANT S COMPARE D T O T HAT OF T HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011

I mmig ra nts Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

BEL O W ABO VE

I NCOME

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000

ME DI AN I NCOME (I N 2016 DOL L ARS) BY DI ST RI CT

2006 2016

I nc o me

T he Me dia n I nc o me I nc re a se d Sinc e 2006 in E ve ry Distric t

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Ce nsus, Va rio us Ye a rs; a nd Ba nk o f Ca na da , Co nsume r Pric e I nde x

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

ME DI AN I NCOME OF T HE I NDI GE NOUS POPUL AT I ON COMPARE D T O T HAT OF T HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011

I ndig e no us po pula tio n Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

I nc o me

I ndig e no us Po pula tio n

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 ME DI AN I NCOME OF F RANCOPHONE S COMPARE D T O T HAT OF T HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011 F ra nc o pho ne s Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

I nc o me

F ra nc o pho ne Po pula tio n

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n

BEL O W ABO VE

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

ME DI AN I NCOME OF I MMI GRANT S COMPARE D T O T HAT OF T HE OVE RAL L POPUL AT I ON, 2011

I mmig ra nts Ove ra ll Po pula tio n

I nc o me

I mmig ra nt Po pula tio n

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011, c usto m ta b ula tio n

MI GRAT I ON

Mo re Pe o ple L e a ving No rthe rn Onta rio tha n Co ming to the Re g io n

So urc e : Sta tistic s Ca na da . T a b le 051-0060 - Co mpo ne nts

• f po pula tio n g ro wth b y e c o no mic re g io n; a nd a utho r’ s

c a lc ula tio ns.

2001/ 2002 2002/ 2003 2003/ 2004 2004/ 2005 2005/ 2006 2006/ 2007 2007/ 2008 2008/ 2009 2009/ 2010 2010/ 2011 2011/ 2012 2012/ 2013 2013/ 2014 2014/ 2015 2015/ 2016

NORT HE AST

• 4500
• 4000
• 3500
• 3000
• 2500
• 2000
• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000 2001/ 2002 2002/ 2003 2003/ 2004 2004/ 2005 2005/ 2006 2006/ 2007 2007/ 2008 2008/ 2009 2009/ 2010 2010/ 2011 2011/ 2012 2012/ 2013 2013/ 2014 2014/ 2015 2015/ 2016

NORT HWE ST

I ntra pro vinc ia l Ne t Mig ra tio n I nte rpro vinc ia l Ne t Mig ra tio n I nte rna tio na l Ne t Mig ra tio n Ne t Mig ra tio n

NE T MI GRAT I ON AND MI GRAT I ON COMPONE NT S

Mig ra tio n (20-29 Ag e Gro up)

• 3000
• 2500
• 2000
• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000

• 1400
• 1200
• 1000
• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200

Ne t I nte rpro vinc ia l Mig ra tio n Ne t I nte rna tio na l Mig ra tio n Ne t I ntra pro vinc ia l Mig ra tio n Ne t Mig ra tio n

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Co mpo ne nts o f po pula tio n g ro wth b y e c o no mic re g io n, se x a nd a g e g ro up, T a b le 0051-0060

NORT HWE ST NORT HE AST

Mig ra tio n (30-64 Ag e Gro up)

Ne t I nte rpro vinc ia l Mig ra tio n Ne t I nte rna tio na l Mig ra tio n Ne t I ntra pro vinc ia l Mig ra tio n Ne t Mig ra tio n

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Co mpo ne nts o f po pula tio n g ro wth b y e c o no mic re g io n, se x a nd a g e g ro up, T a b le 0051-0060

NORT HWE ST NORT HE AST

• 1000
• 500

500 1000 1500 2000

• 1400
• 1200
• 1000
• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200

Numb e r o f I mmig ra nts pe r Ca pita pe r 10,000 Pe o ple , b y Distric t

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

COCHRANE

2 4 6 8 10 12

NI PI SSI NG

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

MANI T OUL I N

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

GRE AT E R SUDBURY

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Co mpo ne nts o f po pula tio n g ro wth b y c e nsus divisio n, se x a nd a g e g ro up fo r the pe rio d fro m July 1 to June 30, T a b le 0051-0063

Numb e r o f I mmig ra nts pe r Ca pita pe r 10,000 Pe o ple , b y Distric t

5 10 15 20

PARRY SOUND

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

SUDBURY

2 4 6 8 10

T I MI SK AMI NG

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

RAI NY RI VE R

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Co mpo ne nts o f po pula tio n g ro wth b y c e nsus divisio n, se x a nd a g e g ro up fo r the pe rio d fro m July 1 to June 30, T a b le 0051-0063

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

AL GOMA

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

T HUNDE R BAY

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

K E NORA

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

ONT ARI O

Numb e r o f I mmig ra nts pe r Ca pita pe r 10,000 Pe o ple , b y Distric t

So urc e : Autho r's c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , Co mpo ne nts o f po pula tio n g ro wth b y c e nsus divisio n, se x a nd a g e g ro up fo r the pe rio d fro m July 1 to June 30, T a b le 0051-0063

E duc a tio n a nd Skills

No t E no ug h Wo rke rs to Re pla c e T ho se Who Will Re tire

So urc e s: Ja rro d Sundma rk, “L a b o urMa rke t Alig nme nt: E duc a tio n in the No rth” No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute , b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da Jo b Va c a nc ie s a nd Wa g e s Surve y, a nd CUDO/ da ta pro vide d b y Co lle g e s; Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011. 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Oc c upa tio ns in e duc a tio n, la w & so c ia l, c o mmunity & g o ve rnme nt se rvic e s He a lth o c c upa tio ns Na tura l & a pplie d sc ie nc e s & re la te d o c c upa tio ns Oc c upa tio ns in a rt, c ulture , re c re a tio n & spo rt Busine ss, fina nc e & a dministra tio n o c c upa tio ns Oc c upa tio ns in ma nufa c turing & utilitie s Na tura l re so urc e s, a g ric ulture & re la te d pro duc tio n

• c c upa tio ns

T ra de s, tra nspo rt & e q uipme nt o pe ra to rs & re la te d

• c c upa tio ns

Ma na g e me nt o c c upa tio ns Sa le s & se rvic e o c c upa tio ns

JOB VACANCI E S I N NO RT

HEAST ERN O NT ARIO, NUMBE

R OF WORK E RS RE ACHI NG RE T I RE ME NT AGE BY 2021 AND GRADUAT E S BY OCCUPAT I ON

Numb e r o f wo rke r who will re a c h 65 b y 2021 T

• ta l Numb e r o f Gra dua te s, 2014

Numb e r o f Va c a nc ie s, 2015

O VER SUPPL Y UNDER SUPPL Y

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Oc c upa tio ns in e duc a tio n, la w & so c ia l, c o mmunity & g o ve rnme nt se rvic e s Na tura l & a pplie d sc ie nc e s & re la te d o c c upa tio ns He a lth o c c upa tio ns Oc c upa tio ns in a rt, c ulture , re c re a tio n & spo rt Oc c upa tio ns in ma nufa c turing & utilitie s Na tura l re so urc e s, a g ric ulture & re la te d pro duc tio n

• c c upa tio ns

Busine ss, fina nc e & a dministra tio n o c c upa tio ns Ma na g e me nt o c c upa tio ns T ra de s, tra nspo rt & e q uipme nt o pe ra to rs & re la te d

• c c upa tio ns

Sa le s & se rvic e o c c upa tio ns

JOB VACANCI E S I N NO RT

HWEST ERN O NT ARIO, NUMBE

R OF WORK E RS RE ACHI NG RE T I RE ME NT AGE BY 2021 AND GRADUAT E S BY OCCUPAT I ON

Numb e r o f wo rke r who will re a c h 65 b y 2021 T

• ta l Numb e r o f Gra dua te s, 2014

Numb e r o f Va c a nc ie s, 2015

E duc a tio n a nd Skills

No t E no ug h Wo rke rs to Re pla c e T ho se Who Will Re tire

So urc e s: Ja rro d Sundma rk, “L a b o urMa rke t Alig nme nt: E duc a tio n in the No rth” No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute , b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da Jo b Va c a nc ie s a nd Wa g e s Surve y, a nd CUDO/ da ta pro vide d b y Co lle g e s; Sta tistic s Ca na da , Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y, 2011.

O VER SUPPL Y UNDER SUPPL Y

62 62

De mo g ra phic T re nds in No rthe rn Onta rio Ne wc o me rs ne e de d b y E c o no mic Re g io n

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da e stima te s fo r 2015, a nd Onta rio Ministry o f F ina nc e po pula tio n pro je c tio ns – Spring 2016 2,921 354

• 1000

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Re q uire d Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - No rthwe st

Ne t Annua l Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 1 Ne t Annua l Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 2 Ave ra g e Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 1 Ave ra g e Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 2

4,153 734

• 2000
• 1000

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Re q uire d Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - No rthe a st

Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 1 Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 2 Ave ra g e Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 1 Ave ra g e Annua l Ne t Mig ra tio n - T a rg e t 2

E XE RCI SE NUMBE R T WO

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