DOME ST I C DE MAND F OR YOUR SE RVI CE S AND ST UDE NT S CONF E DE RAT I ON COL L E GE – BOARD OF GOVE RNORS CHARL E S CIRT WIL L , PRE SIDE NT & CE O, NPI 25 NOVE MBE R 2016, T HUNDE R BAY
NW Po pula tio n distrib utio n Distrib utio n o f the po pula tio n b y a g e , No rthwe ste rn Onta rio 70% F o re c ast 60% 60.5% 59.9% 58.9% 57.7% 50% 51.8% 50.9% 40% 30% 27.9% 27.8% 26.1% 23.7% 20% 23.2% 22.5% 22.1% 21.2% 19.9% 16.9% 15.8% 10% 13.2% 0% 2001 2011 2015 2020 2030 2041 Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n 2001 and 2011 Ce nsuse s; Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011; an Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T o ro nto , 2016)
NW Po pula tio n distrib utio n Pro je c tio ns o f the Ab o rig ina l Po pula tio n’ s Sha re o f the Wo rking -Ag e Po pula tio n, No rthwe ste rn Onta rio , 2013–41 35 F o re c ast 31.28 28.82 30 27.62 27.46 24.45 25 19.80 19.72 c e nt 20 16.39 Pe r 15 10 5 0 2013 2020 2030 2041 20 to 64 20 to 44 So urc e : BakhtiarMo azzami, autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n No rthe rn Ontario ’ s De mo g raphic F o re c asting Mo de l, de ve lo pe d b y the autho r.
Po pula tio n distrib utio n in c o mmunitie s Sio ux L o o ko ut K e no ra 70% 70% 60% 63.9% 63.7% 60% 60.7% 60.6% 50% 59.7% 58.2% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30.9% 20% 26.9% 26.2% 20% 26.3% 22.7% 21.8% 18.5% 10% 10% 16.7% 15.5% 9.2% 8.5% 10.2% 0% 0% 2001 2011 2015 2001 2011 2015 Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ Dryde n Re d L a ke 80% 80% 60% 60% 64.5% 63.8% 61.7% 60.1% 59.0% 57.8% 40% 40% 20% 20% 28.6% 27.1% 24.6% 23.6% 22.9% 22.0% 20.1% 18.1% 12.7% 12.8% 10.9% 9.7% 0% 0% 2001 2011 2015 2001 2011 2015 Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.
Po pula tio n distrib utio n in c o mmunitie s Gre e nsto ne Ma ra tho n 70% 70% 60% 62.7% 60% 66.1% 65.6% 61.5% 61.0% 63.0% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 31.9% 26.8% 20% 24.8% 20% 23.5% 23.7% 22.2% 10% 15.5% 10% 5.1% 13.6% 10.5% 10.2% 12.1% 0% 0% 2001 2011 2015 2001 2011 2015 Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ F o rt F ra nc e s Wa wa 80% 80% 60% 60% 61.7% 61.3% 59.9% 57.7% 56.8% 56.9% 40% 40% 20% 20% 27.6% 25.5% 23.7% 22.8% 22.8% 21.8% 20.3% 18.5% 17.7% 15.8% 18.2% 10.7% 0% 0% 2001 2011 2015 2001 2011 2015 Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.
45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW Numbe r of wor ke r who will r e ac h 65 by 2031 by distr ic t and oc c upation 10,000 9,000 8,000 1975 2105 7,000 695 1780 6,000 1990 615 505 5,000 680 1265 4,000 645 680 6170 3,000 5495 315 5045 4130 2,000 520 115 3085 265 390 2500 1,000 190 130 185 1590 70 940 755 470 0 Ma na g e me nt Busine ss, fina nc e Na tura l a nd He a lth Oc c upa tio ns in Oc c upa tio ns in Sa le s a nd se rvic e T ra de s, tra nspo rt Na tura l Oc c upa tio ns in o c c upa tio ns a nd a pplie d sc ie nc e s o c c upa tio ns e duc a tio n, la w a rt, c ulture , o c c upa tio ns a nd e q uipme nt re so urc e s, ma nufa c turing a dministra tio n a nd re la te d a nd so c ia l, re c re a tio n a nd o pe ra to rs a nd a g ric ulture a nd a nd utilitie s o c c upa tio ns o c c upa tio ns c o mmunity a nd spo rt re la te d re la te d g o ve rnme nt o c c upa tio ns pro duc tio n se rvic e s o c c upa tio ns T hund e r Ba y Distric t Ra iny Rive r Distric t K e no ra Distric t So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y
45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW DRYDE N KE NORA 1,700 wo rke rs 3,505 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 (46.8% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) (45.3% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) RE D L AKE SIOUX L OOKOUT 1,085 wo rke rs 1,120 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 (41.7% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) (40.4% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y
45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW GRE E NST ONE MARAT HON* 1,060 wo rke rs 1,515 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2036 (50.1% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) (68% o f to ta l 2006 wo rkfo rc e ) F ORTF RANCE S WAWA 1,530 wo rke rs 640 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 (42.1% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) (43% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y *Be c a use Ma ra tho n wa s suppre sse d in the 2011 NHS, Ce nsus 2006 da ta wa s use d inste a d
Re tire me nts fo r se le c te d o c c upa tio ns in NW e xc e pt T hunde r Ba y CMA Par apr ofe ssional oc c upations in le gal, Cle ane r s soc ial, c ommunity and e duc ation se r vic e s 385 re tire me nts b y 2021 300 re tire me nts b y 2021 1015 Re tire me nts b y 2031 775 Re tire me nts b y 2031 Offic e administr ative assistants - ge ne r al, Motor ve hic le and tr ansit dr ive r s le gal and me dic al 350 re tire me nts b y 2021 195 re tire me nts b y 2021 940 Re tire me nts b y 2031 505 Re tire me nts b y 2031 So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y
Re tire me nts fo r se le c te d o c c upa tio ns in NW e xc e pt T hunde r Ba y CMA F inanc e , insur anc e and r e late d busine ss Compute r and infor mation syste ms administr ative oc c upations pr ofe ssionals 365 re tire me nts b y 2031 110 re tire me nts b y 2031 ( 71% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e ) ( 88% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e ) Mac hining, me tal for ming, shaping and e r e c ting Pr ofe ssional and T e c hnic al oc c upations in libr ar ie s, tr ade s public ar c hive s, muse ums and ar t galle r ie s 175 re tire me nts b y 2031 160 re tire me nts b y 2031 ( 62% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e ) ( 97% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e ) So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y
Jo b Va c a nc ie s in No rthwe ste rn Onta rio T o ta l Va c a nc ie s, Numb e r o f Re tire me nts b y 2031 a nd Gra dua te s b y Oc c upa tio n Oc c upa tio ns in ma nufa c turing a nd utilitie s Na tura l re so urc e s, a g ric ulture a nd re la te d pro duc tio n o c c upa tio ns T ra de s, tra nspo rt a nd e q uipme nt o pe ra to rs a nd re la te d o c c upa tio ns Sa le s a nd se rvic e o c c upa tio ns Oc c upa tio ns in a rt, c ulture , re c re a tio n a nd spo rt Oc c upa tio ns in e duc a tio n, la w a nd so c ia l, c o mmunity a nd g o ve rnme nt se rvic e s He a lth o c c upa tio ns Na tura l a nd a pplie d sc ie nc e s a nd re la te d o c c upa tio ns Busine ss, fina nc e a nd a dministra tio n o c c upa tio ns Ma na g e me nt o c c upa tio ns 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Numb e r o f wo rke r who will re a c h 65 b y 2031 T o ta l Gra dua te s 2014 Ave ra g e Va c a nc y 2015 So urc e s: Jarro d Sundmark, “L ab o ur Marke t Alig nme nt: E duc atio n in the No rth”, No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute , using Statistic s Canada Jo b Vac anc y and Wag e s Surve y, and CUDO/Co lle g e s pro vide d data; Statistic s Canada Natio nal Ho use ho ld Surve y 2011.
Summa ry • Po pula tio n in De c line • Cre a ting I NCRE ASE D de ma nd fo r SK I L L E D T RADE S • Co lle g e c a n he lp fig ht the de c line • I n so do ing c a n he lp itse lf • T hink L OCAL • T hink JOBS T HAT ARE HE RE • Solution? (im)MIGRAT ION 12
Hig h Ra te s o f Se c o nda ry Mig ra tio n Afte r 10 ye a rs o ve r 40% o f immig ra nts who la nde d in Onta rio in 2001 ha d mo ve d munic ipa litie s Appro xima te ly 90% o f tha t mo ve me nt wa s in Onta rio . 40% o f skille d ne wc o me rs sa y tha t the y a re willing to c o nside r re lo c a tio n to sma ll/ rura l to wns—Attra c ting I mmig ra nts to Onta rio ’ s No n-Urb a n Co mmunitie s So urc e : Mic ha e l Ha a n Re po rt o n se c o nda ry mig ra tio n 13
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