DOME ST I C DE MAND F OR YOUR SE RVI CE S AND ST UDE NT S - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DOME ST I C DE MAND F OR YOUR SE RVI CE S AND ST UDE NT S

CONF E DE RAT I ON COL L E GE – BOARD OF GOVE RNORS

CHARL E S CIRT WIL L , PRE SIDE NT & CE O, NPI

25 NOVE MBE R 2016, T HUNDE R BAY

NW Po pula tio n distrib utio n

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n 2001 and 2011 Ce nsuse s; Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011; an Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T

• ro nto , 2016)

27.9% 23.7% 23.2% 22.5% 22.1% 21.2% 58.9% 60.5% 59.9% 57.7% 51.8% 50.9% 13.2% 15.8% 16.9% 19.9% 26.1% 27.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2011 2015 2020 2030 2041

Distrib utio n o f the po pula tio n b y a g e , No rthwe ste rn Onta rio Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+

F

• re c ast

NW Po pula tio n distrib utio n

So urc e : BakhtiarMo azzami, autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n No rthe rn Ontario ’ s De mo g raphic F

• re c asting Mo de l,

de ve lo pe d b y the autho r. 16.39 19.80 24.45 27.62 19.72 27.46 28.82 31.28 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2013 2020 2030 2041

Pe r c e nt

Pro je c tio ns o f the Ab o rig ina l Po pula tio n’ s Sha re o f the Wo rking -Ag e Po pula tio n, No rthwe ste rn Onta rio , 2013–41

20 to 64 20 to 44

F

• re c ast

Po pula tio n distrib utio n in c o mmunitie s

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

27.1% 22.9% 22.0% 60.1% 59.0% 57.8% 12.8% 18.1% 20.1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2001 2011 2015

Dryde n

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 26.3% 22.7% 21.8% 58.2% 60.6% 59.7% 15.5% 16.7% 18.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2011 2015

K e no ra

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 28.6% 24.6% 23.6% 61.7% 64.5% 63.8% 9.7% 10.9% 12.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2001 2011 2015

Re d L a ke

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 30.9% 26.9% 26.2% 60.7% 63.9% 63.7% 8.5% 9.2% 10.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2011 2015

Sio ux L

• o ko ut

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+

Po pula tio n distrib utio n in c o mmunitie s

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

26.8% 24.8% 23.5% 62.7% 61.5% 61.0% 10.5% 13.6% 15.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2011 2015

Gre e nsto ne

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 31.9% 23.7% 22.2% 63.0% 66.1% 65.6% 5.1% 10.2% 12.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2011 2015

Ma ra tho n

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 25.5% 23.7% 22.8% 56.8% 57.7% 56.9% 17.7% 18.5% 20.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2001 2011 2015

F

• rt F

ra nc e s

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+ 27.6% 22.8% 21.8% 61.7% 61.3% 59.9% 10.7% 15.8% 18.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2001 2011 2015

Wa wa

Po pula tio n le ss tha n 20 Po pula tio n 20 to 64 Po pula tio n 65+

45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y

3085 5045 1590 2500 4130 470 5495 6170 755 940 645 505 115 315 680 70 615 695 185 190 1265 1780 520 680 1990 130 2105 1975 390 265

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

Ma na g e me nt

• c c upa tio ns

Busine ss, fina nc e a nd a dministra tio n

• c c upa tio ns

Na tura l a nd a pplie d sc ie nc e s a nd re la te d

• c c upa tio ns

He a lth

• c c upa tio ns

Oc c upa tio ns in e duc a tio n, la w a nd so c ia l, c o mmunity a nd g o ve rnme nt se rvic e s Oc c upa tio ns in a rt, c ulture , re c re a tio n a nd spo rt Sa le s a nd se rvic e

• c c upa tio ns

T ra de s, tra nspo rt a nd e q uipme nt

• pe ra to rs a nd

re la te d

• c c upa tio ns

Na tura l re so urc e s, a g ric ulture a nd re la te d pro duc tio n

• c c upa tio ns

Oc c upa tio ns in ma nufa c turing a nd utilitie s

Numbe r

• f wor

ke r who will r e ac h 65 by 2031 by distr ic t and oc c upation

T hund e r Ba y Distric t Ra iny Rive r Distric t K e no ra Distric t

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y

45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW

DRYDE N 1,700 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(46.8% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) KE NORA 3,505 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(45.3% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) RE D L AKE 1,085 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(41.7% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) SIOUX L OOKOUT 1,120 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(40.4% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e )

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y *Be c a use Ma ra tho n wa s suppre sse d in the 2011 NHS, Ce nsus 2006 da ta wa s use d inste a d

45,310 wo rke rs will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031 in the NW

GRE E NST ONE 1,060 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(50.1% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) MARAT HON* 1,515 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2036

(68% o f to ta l 2006 wo rkfo rc e ) F ORTF RANCE S 1,530 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(42.1% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e ) WAWA 640 wo rke rs

will re a c h re tire me nt a g e b y 2031

(43% o f to ta l 2011 wo rkfo rc e )

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y

Re tire me nts fo r se le c te d o c c upa tio ns in NW e xc e pt T hunde r Ba y CMA

Motor ve hic le and tr ansit dr ive r s 350 re tire me nts b y 2021 940 Re tire me nts b y 2031 Cle ane r s 385 re tire me nts b y 2021 1015 Re tire me nts b y 2031 Offic e administr ative assistants - ge ne r al, le gal and me dic al 195 re tire me nts b y 2021 505 Re tire me nts b y 2031 Par apr

• fe ssional oc c upations in le gal,

soc ial, c ommunity and e duc ation se r vic e s 300 re tire me nts b y 2021 775 Re tire me nts b y 2031

So urc e : Autho r’ s c a lc ula tio ns b a se d o n Sta tistic s Ca na da , 2011 Na tio na l Ho use ho ld Surve y

Re tire me nts fo r se le c te d o c c upa tio ns in NW e xc e pt T hunde r Ba y CMA

Compute r and infor mation syste ms pr

• fe ssionals

110 re tire me nts b y 2031

(88% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e )

Pr

• fe ssional and T

e c hnic al oc c upations in libr ar ie s, public ar c hive s, muse ums and ar t galle r ie s 160 re tire me nts b y 2031

(97% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e )

F inanc e , insur anc e and r e late d busine ss administr ative oc c upations 365 re tire me nts b y 2031

(71% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e )

Mac hining, me tal for ming, shaping and e r e c ting tr ade s 175 re tire me nts b y 2031

(62% o f to ta l wo rkfo rc e )

Jo b Va c a nc ie s in No rthwe ste rn Onta rio

So urc e s: Jarro d Sundmark, “L ab o ur Marke t Alig nme nt: E duc atio n in the No rth”, No rthe rn Po lic y I nstitute , using Statistic s Canada Jo b Vac anc y and Wag e s Surve y, and CUDO/Co lle g e s pro vide d data; Statistic s Canada Natio nal Ho use ho ld Surve y 2011.

T

• ta l Va c a nc ie s, Numb e r o f Re tire me nts b y 2031 a nd Gra dua te s b y Oc c upa tio n

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Ma na g e me nt o c c upa tio ns Busine ss, fina nc e a nd a dministra tio n o c c upa tio ns Na tura l a nd a pplie d sc ie nc e s a nd re la te d o c c upa tio ns He a lth o c c upa tio ns Oc c upa tio ns in e duc a tio n, la w a nd so c ia l, c o mmunity a nd g o ve rnme nt se rvic e s Oc c upa tio ns in a rt, c ulture , re c re a tio n a nd spo rt Sa le s a nd se rvic e o c c upa tio ns T ra de s, tra nspo rt a nd e q uipme nt o pe ra to rs a nd re la te d

• c c upa tio ns

Na tura l re so urc e s, a g ric ulture a nd re la te d pro duc tio n

• c c upa tio ns

Oc c upa tio ns in ma nufa c turing a nd utilitie s Numb e r o f wo rke r who will re a c h 65 b y 2031 T

• ta l Gra dua te s 2014

Ave ra g e Va c a nc y 2015

Summa ry

• Po pula tio n in De c line
• Cre a ting I

NCRE ASE D de ma nd fo r SK I L L E D T RADE S

• Co lle g e c a n he lp fig ht the de c line
• I

n so do ing c a n he lp itse lf

• T

hink L OCAL

• T

hink JOBS T HAT ARE HE RE

• Solution? (im)MIGRAT

ION

12

Hig h Ra te s o f Se c o nda ry Mig ra tio n

So urc e : Mic ha e l Ha a n Re po rt o n se c o nda ry mig ra tio n

Afte r 10 ye a rs o ve r 40% o f immig ra nts who la nde d in Onta rio in 2001 ha d mo ve d munic ipa litie s Appro xima te ly 90% o f tha t mo ve me nt wa s in Onta rio . 40% o f skille d ne wc o me rs sa y tha t the y a re willing to c o nside r re lo c a tio n to sma ll/ rura l to wns—Attra c ting I mmig ra nts to Onta rio ’ s No n-Urb a n Co mmunitie s

13

Whe re a re se c o nda ry immig ra nts c o ming fro m?

So urc e : No rthe rn Ontario I mmig ratio n Re po rt, 2015

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Numb e r o f Mig ra nts CA/ CMA

Mig ra nts T

• No rthe rn Onta rio b y Pre vio us CA/ CMA

2007-2012

50 100 150 200 250

Numb e r o f Mig ra nts Pre vio us CA/ CMA

Mig ra nts to No rthe a ste rn Onta rio Ba se d o n Pre vio us CA/ CMA 2007-2012

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Numb e r o f Mig ra nts Pre vio us CA/ CMA

Mig ra nts to No rthwe ste rn Onta rio Ba se d o n Pre vio us CA/ CMA 2007-2012

So urc e : No rthe rn Ontario I mmig ratio n Re po rt, 2015 So urc e : No rthe rn Ontario I mmig ratio n Re po rt, 2015

14

Pre se nc e o f frie nds a nd fa mily 59% Jo b pro spe c ts 14% E duc a tio n pro spe c ts 5% L ife style 5% Ho using 4% Othe r 13%

Prima ry Re a so n fo r Cho o sing De stina tio n (CMAs)

So urc e : L

• ng itud ina l Surve y o f Immig ra nts to Ca na d a , 2001.

Pre se nc e

• f frie nds

a nd fa mily 36% Jo b pro spe c ts 32% E duc a tio n pro spe c ts 12% L ife style 6% Busine ss Pro spe c ts 6% Othe r 8%

Prima ry Re a so n fo r Cho o sing De stina tio n (Outside T MV)

So urc e : L

• ng itud ina l Surve y o f Immig ra nts to Ca na d a , 2001.

15

Ca rving o ut a pie c e o f the PNP: Mo rde n’ s e xa mple (the MCDI I )

• Mo rde n is a sma ll to wn in Ma nito b a with a po pula tio n o f

a ppro xima te ly 8000

• T

he y suc c e ssfully e sta b lishe d a lo c a l immig ra tio n pro g ra m unde r the MPNP whic h a llo ws the m to se le c t 50 fa milie s a ye a r to immig ra te to Mo rde n

• Munic ipa lity sc re e ns pe o ple fo r the PNP
• Co nditio ns
• Ha ve to do a n e xplo ra to ry visit—1 we e k lo ng whe re the y g e t to e xplo re

life style , e mplo yme nt, he a lth a nd ho using o ptio ns

• Ha ve no c o nne c tio n to o the r pa rts o f Ca na da
• Re sults: tre me ndo us po pula tio n g ro wth a nd the y’ re a b le to fill

lo c a l e mplo yme nt ne e ds a nd g ro w

16

L e sso ns fro m Mo rde n

• Co mmunity ne e ds to b e re c e ptive
• Jo b s ne e d to e xist
• Mo rde n is uniq ue to the MPNP pro g ra m, OI

NP wo uld ha ve to b e mo difie d b e fo re a simila r pro g ra m c o uld b e e sta b lishe d

• Co mmunity ne e ds to ha ve a g o o d re la tio nship with the

PNP a dministra to rs

17

T he Wa y F

• rwa rd?

18

• Ste p 1 – Co ntinue to inve st in pe o ple who a re he re
• I

ndig e no us pe o ple s a nd une mplo ye d/ unde re mplo ye d – ne e d the ir BUY I N

• Ste p 2 -Re g io na l I

mmig ra nt No mine e Pro g ra m

• Ste p 3 – Unde rsta nding o ur mig ra tio n ma rke t
• the GT

A

• Ste p 4 – Re a c h Out – b e c re a tive
• Build fro m “study no rth” a nd “sta y no rth” to “c o me

no rth”

T ha nk yo u. Me rc i. Miig we tc h. www.no rthe rnpo lic y.c a

E XT RA SL I DE S

Po pula tio n - Distric ts

So urc e : Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

246,503 239,087 123,763 116,064 157,034 148,729 22,943 20,047 66,526 70,311 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

NW Alg o ma Distric t T hunde r Ba y Distric t Ra iny Rive r Distric t K e no ra Distric t

Po pula tio n - Co mmunitie s

So urc e : Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

8511 7941 5870 4781 16449 16023 4581 3368 8646 7810 4386 4859 5524 5222 3800 2932 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Dryd e n Gre e nsto ne K e no ra Ma ra tho n F

• rt F

ra nc e s Re d L a ke Sio ux L

• o ko ut

Wa wa

Po pula tio n Pro je c tio ns

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Ontario , Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T

• ro nto , 2016) and Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al

Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

• 22.84%
• 15.32%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0%

Ho st Co mmunitie s in Alg o ma Distric t - Co nfe de ra tio n Co lle g e

Wa wa Alg o ma Distric t

F

• re c ast

• 18.55%
• 26.48%
• 4.48%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0%

Ho st Co mmunitie s in T hunde r Ba y Distric t - Co nfe de ra tio n Co lle g e

Gre e nsto ne Ma ra tho n T hund e r Ba y Distric t

Po pula tio n Pro je c tio ns

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Ontario , Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T

• ro nto , 2016) and Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al

Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

F

• re c ast

• 9.67%
• 23.55%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0%

Ho st Co mmunitie s in Ra iny Rive r - Co nfe de ra tio n Co lle g e

F

• rt F

ra nc e s Ra iny Rive r Distric t

Po pula tio n Pro je c tio ns

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Ontario , Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T

• ro nto , 2016) and Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al

Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

F

• re c ast

F

• re c ast
• 6.70%
• 2.59%

10.78%

• 5.47%

12.15%

• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Ho st Co mmunitie s in K e no ra Distric t - Co nfe de ra tio n Co lle g e

Dryd e n K e no ra Re d L a ke Sio ux L

• o ko ut

K e no ra Distric t

Po pula tio n Pro je c tio ns

So urc e s: Autho r’ s c alc ulatio ns b ase d o n Ontario , Ministry o f F inanc e , “Ontario Po pulatio n Pro je c tio ns, 2013-2041” (T

• ro nto , 2016) and Statistic s Canada, annual e stimate s o f po pulatio n b ase d o n the Standard Ge o g raphic al

Classific atio n (SGC) 2011.

Sc ho o l E nro lme nt

So urc e : Ministry o f E duc atio n, as re po rte d b y sc ho o ls in the Ontario Sc ho o l I nfo rmatio n Syste m (OnSI S)

872 741 1241 1248 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2006-20072007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-20132013-2014

Dryde n

1248 1017 1159 1703 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

K e no ra

356 304 336 315 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2006-20072007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-20132013-2014

Re d L a ke

447 481 672 697 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

Sio ux L

• o ko ut

E le me nta ry Sc ho o ls Se c o nda ry Sc ho o ls

Sc ho o l E nro lme nt

So urc e : Ministry o f E duc atio n, as re po rte d b y sc ho o ls in the Ontario Sc ho o l I nfo rmatio n Syste m (OnSI S)

386 261 703 610 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006-20072007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-20132013-2014

Gre e nsto ne

465 397 394 223 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

Ma ra tho n

1032 854 1243 1167 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2006-20072007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-20132013-2014

F

• rt F

ra nc e s

304 189 461 332 100 200 300 400 500

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

Wa wa E le me nta ry Sc ho o ls Se c o nda ry Sc ho o ls