SLIDE 2 2
Average Annual Percent Change in National Health Expenditures, 1960‐2012
13.1% 11.0% 8.4% 5.5% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 8.5% 9.5% 8.4% 7.1%6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 4.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
1970 1980 1990 93 97 98 99 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2011 2012 2013 Source: Kaiser Family Foundation calculations using NHE data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group, at http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/ (see Historical; National Health Expenditures by type of service and source of funds, CY 1960-2010; file nhe2010.zip).
Is The Decline In Spending Growth The Result Of:‐‐‐‐
A Slow Down In Economic Growth Or Structural Factors Within The Healthcare System
Medicare Actuaries Think Limited Growth Will Return
As a Result of An Expanding Economy and Aging Medicare Recipients
Growth In Yearly Healthcare Spending Actual (2012‐2014) and Projected (2015‐2019)
4.80% 6.20% Annual Growth in Spending 2012‐2014 2015‐2019
Most Growth From Medicare and Medicaid Spending Increases!
Even For Medicare Most of Growth The Result Of More Care for Older Patients
Growth in Health Care Spending By Payer:
Actual 2012‐2014, Projections 2015‐2019
4.8% 6.0% 4.6% 0.3% 2.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.5% 0.5% 3.4% 7.0% 0.8% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Total Health Consumption Expenditures Private Health Insurance Medicare Medicaid Total Health Consumption Expenditures Private Health Insurance Medicare Medicaid
Average Annual % Increase
Source of Funds
Growth in Enrollment Growth in Spending per Enrollee Total Health Consumption Expenditure Growth
5.1% 3.7% 9.7% 5.3% 6.9% 7.1%
2012 ‐ 2014 2015 ‐ 2019
Source: Office of The Actuary, CMA , September 2014.
