Didier Ruedin, University of Neuchtel Laura Morales, University of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Didier Ruedin, University of Neuchtel Laura Morales, University of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 20, 2023 220 likes •349 views

Didier Ruedin, University of Neuchtel Laura Morales, University of Leicester Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP), Oxford, 7 th September2012 Specific issue domain: immigration linked to research question Data over time

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SLIDE 1

Didier Ruedin, University of Neuchâtel Laura Morales, University of Leicester Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP), Oxford, 7th September2012

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SLIDE 2
  • Specific issue domain: immigration

– linked to research question

  • Data over time
  • Retrospective
  • Tied to elections
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SLIDE 3
  • Party manifestos: relevant sections

– AT, BE, CH, ES, IE, NL, UK

  • Manual coding: conventional codebook
  • Manual coding: checklist
  • Dictionary coding: Yoshikoder
  • Wordscores: JFreq, Austin in R
  • Pooled expert data: moving average
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SLIDE 4
  • Consistent ranking
  • Manual/Wordscores: anti-immigrant
  • Checklist: pro-immigrant

Expert Manual Checklist Manual 0.82 Checklist 0.78 0.87 Wordscores 0.57 0.65 0.51 Dictionary 0.24 0.31 0.55

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SLIDE 5

FPÖ

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1994 1999 2006

Grüne

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1994 1999 2006

ÖVP

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1994 1999 2006

SPÖ

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1994 1999 2006

Expert – Manual – Checklist – Wordscores

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SLIDE 6
  • Consistent ranking
  • Variation: ≈ 4 points

1995 1999 2002 2006 2008 Manual 0.96 0.83 0.97 0.87 Checklist 1.00 0.91 0.72 0.99 0.95 Dictionary

  • 0.64
  • 0.26

0.38 0.41

  • 0.87

Wordscores 0.99 0.96 0.82 Ref. 0.82

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SLIDE 7

Expert – Manual – Checklist – Wordscores

IU

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1993 2000 2008

PNV

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1993 2000 2008

PP

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1993 2000 2008

PSOE

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1993 2000 2008

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SLIDE 8
  • PP 2011: probably not that extreme
  • Consistent ranking
  • Variation: high, low for IU

1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 Manual 0.71 0.87 0.78 0.70 0.38 Checklist 1.00 0.93 0.93 0.68 0.88 Dictionary 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.31 Wordscores 0.70 0.77 Ref. 0.74

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SLIDE 9

Expert – Manual – Checklist – Wordscores

SVP

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

FDP

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

CVP

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

SPS

Position on Immigration 2 4 6 8 10 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

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SLIDE 10
  • Consistent ranking
  • Variation: ≈ 2 points

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Manual 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.73 Checklist 0.98 0.96 0.90 0.98 1.00 Dictionary

  • 0.04

0.42 0.87 0.19

  • 0.09

Wordscores 0.81 0.92 Ref. 0.93 0.88

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SLIDE 11
  • High correlations

– Manual coding, checklist, Wordscores – Consistent over time

  • Poor performance: automatic dictionary
  • Consistent ranking
  • Lack of mention for specific issues
  • Future: UK & France, reliability, errors