Delivering the Paris Agreement? Modelling least cost pathways to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Delivering the Paris Agreement?

Modelling least cost pathways to European energy and climate objectives

European Zero Emission Technology and Innovation Platform

Holistic model including:

• Energy Sources
• Conversion
• Utilisation
• Energy Storage
• CO2 Storage

Includes for the first time:

• Heat
• Energy Intensive

Industries

• Transport
• Power

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The ZEP Market Economics energy system model

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Investment optimizer:

• Invests in Heat,

Transport, Industry and Power assets

• Delivers fleet composition

from 2010 to 2050

• Evaluates CAPEX

Dispatch optimizer:

• Linear programming
• 8760 hours
• Minimizes OPEX & CO2

Fleet composition OPEX & CO2

• Costs
• Efficiency
• Consumption
• Weather

Lowest Cost Pathway to meet CO2 target

Integrated Energy system model

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United Kingdom Netherlands France Spain Greece Switzerland Germany Poland Italy Norway

Modelling across 10 countries (and combined)

Setting the CO2 emissions target base line

• EU 80-95%

Reduction ref 1990

• This model from

2010

• This model is

energy only

• 85% from 2010

to 2050 for Energy is equivalent to 80% ref 1990

• 95% reduction

target overall

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generated electricity (T Wh)

Wind PV Biomass C C S C HP Gas C C C C S C HP C &L C CS C HP Biomass C C S Gas C C C C S C &L C CS Biomass C HP R ecip C HP Gas C C C HP C &L C HP Biomass Gas C C Gas S C C &L Nuclear Hydro R iver Hydro Lakes

Electricity Generation in 10 countries

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With CCS No CCS

• Model chooses dispatchable power to better integrate Solar and Wind
• With CCS, the backup power does not emit CO2
• Growth in demand for electricity, transport and heat

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generated heat (T Wh)

Biomass CCS CHP Gas CC CCS CHP C&L CCS CHP Biomass CHP Recip CHP Gas CC CHP C&L CHP S

• lar heater

E lectric heater Hydrogen heater Biomass heater Heatpump Fuel heater

Generated Heat in 10 Countries

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With CCS No CCS

• For many countries, heat is currently the most important CO2 emitter and, at a system

level, heat can help integration of RES because it can be stored cheaply

• The model chooses replaces simple Gas, Oil and Coal heating with District Heating,

CHP, Heat Pumps, Biomass Solar Thermal and Hydrogen

• Centralised Heat and CO2 capture eliminates almost all emissions from this, the

biggest and most-distributed sector

• Without CCS simple fuel heaters remain in place to 2050 and beyond

Heat Pumps Simple Fuel Heaters Biomass District Heating with CCS

100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mechanical energy (T

Wh)

Fuel cell vehicles Battery vehicles IC Vehicles

Transport in 10 Countries

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With CCS No CCS

• Transport makes distributed emissions. Switching to Electricity and Hydrogen can

centralise emissions sources for CO2 capture, if available

• Only road transport is considered in this model; 75% conversion limit at 2050
• Early adopters: Norway & Switzerland because low CO2 in electricity used

Liquid Fuel Battery Hydrogen

200 400 600 800 1000 2000 3000

Total levelized system costs (b€/y) Total CO2 emissions (MT

CO2/y)

Series2 ALL ALL_C CS

2010 2050 2030

Without CCS With CCS

UK, ES , DE, PL, IT, FR , NL, GR , CH, NO

EU reduction target 80 - 95% ref. 1990

Cost benefit for emissions reduction in 10 countries

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• Fuel savings, efficiency improvements and

technology cost reduction give fairly flat costs curves. No inflation (2010 Euros)

• District Heating and CHP give cost

reductions in early years

• 95% emission reduction can only be

achieved with CCS

• Without CCS emissions in 2050 are 3-4

times higher

• Saving up to 2050 with CCS = more than

1 Trillion Euro for EU as a whole

• Saving 50 Billion Euro per year ongoing

across the 10 countries modelled

• Early investment in CO2 hubs and

clusters has strong business case

Conclusions

• 2050 reduction targets can only be achieved with CCS
• Without CCS, emissions would be 3-4 times higher in 2050
• Value of CCS to EU of 1 Trillion Euros, up until 2050
• CCS worth 50 Billion Euro per year from 2050 onwards (10 countries)
• Future of Energy Intensive Industries in Europe relies on CCS
• Infrastructure investment required for reductions before 2030
• Business case for Member States to invest in Hubs/Clusters (now!)
• CCS facilitates over-achievement against EU renewables targets
• Bioenergy with CCS is key to negative emissions needed for Paris Agreement

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