Decision Support System CISOA & 3CBG Conference 2014 February 25 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision Support System CISOA & 3CBG Conference 2014 February 25 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision Support System CISOA & 3CBG Conference 2014 February 25 th , 2014 Daniel Lamoree Sr. Systems Analyst/Programmer Mt. San Antonio College dlamoree@mtsac.edu Learning Objectives 1. How Mt. SAC calculates FTES Targets 2. How Mt. SAC

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Decision Support System

Daniel Lamoree

  • Sr. Systems Analyst/Programmer
  • Mt. San Antonio College

dlamoree@mtsac.edu CISOA & 3CBG Conference 2014 February 25th, 2014

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Learning Objectives

  • 1. How Mt. SAC calculates FTES Targets
  • 2. How Mt. SAC decides sections to add or cut
  • 3. How Mt. SAC Deans develop prospective schedules
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  • Mt. SAC Story: Lost FTES
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Scheduling 2014-2015 Overview

— Top-Down Approach

— Get Annual FTES Target — Distribute Annual Target between CR, ENHC_NC, NC

— Grow only Credit? Distribute as before?

— Distribute CR, ENHC_NC, NC among Terms

— Grow Summer (yes, please)? Fall? Winter? Spring?

— Distribute FTES among Divisions . . .

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Annual Targeting

— Example

— Funded FTES for Prior Year = 29371.99 — Growth = 3.5% — Unfunded FTES for Prior Year = 400 — ((29371.99 * 1.035) – 400) = 30000 — CR: 27000 (90%), 2400 ENHC_NC (8%), 600 NC (2%) — 10% Summer; 42% Fall; 8% Winter; 40% Spring — Of 10% Summer: 36.22% HSS; . . .

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Annual Targeting

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Annual Targeting

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Annual Targeting

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Annual Targeting

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Annual Targeting

— Just one catch . . .

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Impossible? Failure?

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Minimizing Spring Uncertainty

— Knowns

— Sections Scheduled for Spring — Scheduled Hours per Section for Spring — Historical Fill Rate for Spring

— Unknowns

— Future Contact Hours (Fill Rate for WSCH/DSCH or PACH)

— Mt. SAC Decision

— Projection

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Projection: Weighted Averages

  • 25%
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 4 3 2 1 1st Most Recent 2nd Most Recent 3rd Most Recent 4th Most Recent

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Does the projection work?

Spring 2012 Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error % W 8432.9192 8312.95 8381.988 69.038 0.824% IW 289.5956 311.02 266.019 45.001 16.916% ID 117.6122 110.82 97.9406 12.8794 13.150% D 374.2581 395.12 340.651 54.469 15.990% LD 33.2027 25.87 28.3751 2.5051 8.829% LW 256.2772 236.96 224.4053 12.5547 5.595% TOTAL 9503.865 9392.74 9339.379 53.361 0.571%

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Does the projection work?

Fall 2012 Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error % W 8980.0658 8939.18 9004.8445 65.6645 0.729% IW 294.9029 323.12 268.3027 54.8173 20.431% ID 146.9111 148.73 123.4596 25.2704 20.469% D 393.9151 385.57 337.1664 48.4036 14.356% LD 29.3333 27.49 29.0263 1.5363 5.293% LW 234.8028 208.51 228.1898 19.6798 8.624% TOTAL 10079.931 10032.6 9990.9893 41.6107 0.416%

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Does the projection work?

Spring 2013 Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error % W 9147.3702 8924.05 8839.0069 85.0431 0.962% IW 320.2368 337.38 290.7746 46.6054 16.028% ID 141.3104 131.81 116.7168 15.0932 12.931% D 426.6003 445.74 359.189 86.551 24.096% LD 27.8053 23.8 26.2312 2.4312 9.268% LW 271.2639 245.29 231.6928 13.5972 5.869% TOTAL 10334.5869 10108.07 9863.6113 244.4587 2.478%

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Does the projection work?

Fall 2013 Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error % W 9444.0141 9523.71 9263.0738 260.6362 2.814% IW 350.3353 418.18 314.465 103.715 32.981% ID 189.386 215.32 162.3545 52.9655 32.623% D 369.7928 397.66 317.5203 80.1397 25.239% LW 93.0252 124.5 83.0736 41.4264 49.867% TOTAL 10446.5534 10679.37 10140.487 538.8828 5.314%

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What happened?

— No variance in pervious years; easy to project when fill rates hover around 100% (after drops and adds) — What now?

— More robust model, an actual predictive model

— Will that help given downward trends? Always 1 year or term behind?

— Maintain Agility

— Reporting via Argos and APEX — Sandboxing via APEX

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APEX

— Highlights

— Oracle’s primary tool for developing Web applications using SQL and PL/SQL — Only requires web browser to develop — No cost option of the Oracle Database

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Reports

— What sections should we add?

— Demand

— 90%+ Fill — Waitlists

— Registration Acceleration

— What sections should we cut?

— Lagging Sections — Registration Acceleration

— What else?

— Room Usage — Excluded CRNs

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Demand 90%+ Fill

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Response?

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Waitlists

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Registration Acceleration

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Lagging Courses

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Lagging Courses

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Room Usage

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Excluded CRNs From 320

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Sandbox

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Future

— Building Predictive Model — Room/Space Efficiency — Reporting Off Sandboxes — Task/Directive Assignment