SLIDE 9 9
17
VIRIDIAN – MARKET DOWNTURN IMPACTS EARNINGS
49.3 33.4 EBIT 69.8 57.6 EBITDA 354.5 451.4 Trading Revenue 2008* 2009 A$m
- Earnings impacted by higher energy related input
costs (first half) and weaker volumes
- Review of business given significant decline in
market conditions since acquisition in 2007
- Key assumptions relate to:
– housing starts – take up rate of energy efficient glass – improved service proposition
– strong market position in glass – favourable sector dynamics (energy efficient glass) – potential for further organisational improvement however; – Viridian not yet fully leveraging its market position – external factors have impacted short term earnings
- DCF valuation leads to non-cash impairment to
goodwill of $280 million (pre-tax) in YEM09
- Medium-term maintainable, through the cycle
earnings, supports valuation
* 9 months of Pilkington, 6 months DMS Dwelling Commencement Forecasts Comparison - Australia (MAT)
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Commencements ('000) Actual May07 Forecast Feb09 Forecast
Source BIS Shrapnel
OUTLOOK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROPERTY SUGAR BUILDING PRODUCTS ALUMINIUM INTRO OUTLOOK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROPERTY SUGAR BUILDING PRODUCTS ALUMINIUM INTRO
18
MEDIUM TO LONGER TERM INFLUENCES ON BUILDING REMAIN POSITIVE
Underlying Demand for Dwellings and Estimated Stock Deficiency
10 20 30 40 50 60 NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT
Dwellings ('000) Underlying Demand Estimated Stock Defficiency
Source BIS Shrapnel; Building Industry Prospects Chartbook Mar 2009
- Continued under-building in
most states leads to significant increase in underlying demand and stock deficiency
affordability from reduced mortgage rates
Governments’ stimulus packages
finance approvals) begin to show signs of early improvement
Housing indicators
25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 37000 39000 41000 43000 45000 Mar‐06 Jun‐06 Sep‐06 Dec‐06 Mar‐07 Jun‐07 Sep‐07 Dec‐07 Mar‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09
Dwellings (quarterly)
15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 23000 24000
Dwelling finance $'000 Dwelling Commencements (LHS) Dwelling Approvals (LHS) Finance Approvals ‐ For new dwellings (RHS)
Source: ABS
OUTLOOK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROPERTY SUGAR BUILDING PRODUCTS ALUMINIUM INTRO OUTLOOK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROPERTY SUGAR BUILDING PRODUCTS ALUMINIUM INTRO