Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres Towns Mean Business - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Ideal Retail Mix” December 2016

Keith Hargest

Hargest Planning Ltd

Shopping as an activity…

‘ “I have heard,” said Defoe, still obviously shocked by the practice, “that some ladies, and these too, persons of good note, have taken their coaches and spent a whole afternoon in Ludgate Street or Covent Garden, only to divert themselves in going from one mercers shop to another, to look upon their fine silks and to rattle and banter the shopkeepers...”’

From Daniel Defoe “The Complete English Tradesman” 1726 (quoted by Lewis Mumford (The City in History)

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Long Term Factors

• Resale Price Maintenance Act 1964
• Increased accessibility and reduce cost of travel

(time and money)

• Internet based retail

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units – Small Centres

Numbers of Retail Units – Medium Town Centres

Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units – Large Town Centres

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Changes to the Retail Mix

• Total numbers of retail goods and retail service

units is broadly constant

• Comparison goods shops declined in numbers
• Retail service units have grown significantly
• Vacancies have, in long term, remained broadly

constant

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Largest City & Town Centres

• Glasgow: decline retail goods units but growth in

services

• Edinburgh: from 1985 decline in retail goods units but

growth in sales area; growth in services

• Aberdeen from 2003: retail goods shops marginal

decline, growth in net sales; growth in service units; vacancies constant

• Dundee: decline in retail goods floorspace (esp

comparison); total numbers of retail goods and service units remained same since 2005

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Retail Expenditure Per Capita - Constant and Actual Prices

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Growth of Internet

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Forecast Growth in Expenditure – Total

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Implications

• Continuation of trends
• Uncertainties – internet growth; Brexit etc
• Continued loss of retail goods shops and

floorspace from small/medium town centres

• Continued growth of retail services – become

principal commercial activity in small- medium town centres

• Larger centres: market concentration here, less

units, but more floorspace and turnover

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Retail Offer – Small/Medium Town Centres

• P rice – difficult to compete
• Q uality – potential to be sensitive to local market
• R ange – difficult to compete
• S ervice – greatest potential for small/medium

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium

Laura McKelvie, Policy and Public Affairs

Small Businesses Make Towns

GET IN TOUCH

T 0141 221 0775 E laura.mckelvie@fsb.org.uk W fsb.org.uk/scot

Presentation Title. A presentation by Fiona Smith for [enter name/company]

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium

Retail, High Streets, and Transformational Change

Presentation to the Cross Party Group on Town Centres Ewan MacDonald-Russell – SRC Head of Policy & External Affairs

Scottish Retail Consortium

Representing 255 brands including:

What’s Happening in Scottish Retail?

• 4.0%
• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 % change year-on year

SCOTLAND 3M ROLLING AVERAGE GROWTH OVER FIVE YEARS

Total Sales LFL sales

• Sales:
• Oct 1.6%
• 3 Month: -1.0 %
• Vacancy Rate:
• Oct 9.2 %
• July 7.5 %
• October Footfall:
• 3 Month: 0.3 %
• 12 Month: -1.4 %

SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Monitor

Source: SRC/Springboard

• 8.0%
• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 % change year-on-year

Footfall

Scotland UK

SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Monitor

Source: SRC/Springboard

7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Vacancy Rate (%)

BRC-Springboard Vacancy Rates

Scotland UK

• Shop prices have fallen for

43 months.

• November SPI: -1.7 %
• Driven by low commodity

prices and fierce competition.

• Underlying pressures could

cause challenges.

• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 % change year-on-year All Items Food Non-food

Shop Price index inflation (Y-o-y changes in prices) Source: BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index

What’s happening to Shop Prices?

• The shift to shopping online continues apace
• Internet sales totalled £43bn in 2015.
• The challenge facing retailers is in investing to

create a seamless multichannel proposition

• On average, people are taking fewer shopping

trips but are prepared to travel further to make it a day out.

• The immediacy of online shopping and the rapid

advancement in supply chain technology means products are easily available at short notice.

• That has led to a decreasing tendency among

shoppers to buy well in advance or to plan for new season or events Online non-food sales now around 22%, 12 month average growth is 10.8%. Online food sales has proved more challenging, so overall online penetration is around

15%.

Online shopping is increasingly being done through mobile phones, rather than desktop. More than 50% of hits

• n retailers’ websites are

from mobile phones.

How are people shopping?

What effect is public policy having?

• Customers spending is crucial for

retailers: Therefore costs to customers are a priority.

• Government Policy is increasing

the cost of people and property:

• Business Rates and the Large

Business Supplement

• Apprenticeship Levy
• Costs of Employment
• Future Issues
• Brexit
• Productivity and Innovation

Final Thoughts

• Retail Industry is going through enormous change
• Trading conditions are very competitive
• Economic challenges ahead in 2017
• High Streets will change significantly as a consequence
• Public policy needs to evolve in response to these pressures

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium

Alexander Nicoll

Corporate Responsibility Director Intu Properties Plc

Shopping Centres: Working Together with Communities and Town Centres

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres

“Towns Mean Business”

18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by:

Scottish Retail Consortium