Crimean Crisis Background: 1954: Crimea is gifted to Ukraine by - - PDF document

Crimean Crisis Background:

1954: Crimea is gifted to Ukraine by Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev 1991: USSR collapses 11/21/13 - President Yanukovych abandons agreement for closer ties to European Union and works to ally more closely with Russia. Over the next several months, protests escalate. Scores are killed, some by government snipers. 2/21/14 - President Yanukovych signs power sharing agreement with opposition 2/22/14 - President Yanukovych disappears; appears

• n television from undisclosed location denouncing

“coup” 2/28/14 - President Yanukovych holds a press conference in Russia insisting he is still president 3/1/14 – Russian parliament approves Russian president Putin’s request for military action to protect Russian interests in Crimea. By the next day, the United States acknowledges that Russia has effective control of Crimea.

3/16/14 – Crimeans vote 97% in favor of declaring independence from Ukraine and seek to join Russian Federation 3/17/14 – EU and US impose travel bans and asset freezes on Russian government officials, oligarchs and

• ne bank and threaten further actions.

3/18/14 – Russia officially annexes Crimea. The international community does not recognize this action.

Goal of Sanctions: Squeeze the economic powers in Russia to pressure Putin to change course, leave Crimea and cease provocations against Ukraine Effect so far: Very early, but the Russian stock market has plunged 13.1% this year (at this time last year, down 5.8%) Russian currency performing extremely poorly versus the dollar Fitch Rating and Standard & Poor downgraded their outlook on Russia’s credit rating from stable to negative. Russia has raised its benchmark interest rate, making domestic borrowing prohibitively expensive and further reducing value of ruble Most financial experts predict a recession for the Russian economy. Visa and MasterCard have agreed to freeze assets under their control and not extend lines of credit to certain Russian officials and citizens.

Why sanctions will work: Russian economy was not very strong in the first place Putin has demonstrated to his domestic audience that he is powerful and can defy the West. He will be content to rest on his laurels Further incursions into Ukraine proper will bring much more widespread sanctions that would cripple Russian economy. Why sanctions will not work: Russian does not care about Western concerns and has successfully engaged in such actions in the past (Hungary – 1956, Czechoslovakia – 1968, Georgia – 2007) The EU relies on Russia for 1/3 of its energy imports. The US and its allies have no intention of engaging in military conflict over Ukraine and Russia knows it.

Prediction: Russia will keep Crimea but not invade the rest of Ukraine (for now…) Sanctions are declared a modest success

Sources: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-23/russia-staring-at- recession-on-sanctions-that-could-get-tougher.html http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-us-business-sanctions- hurt/25305933.html

Targets for Ukraine-Related Sanctions

Information from the U.S. Treasury Department:

Government officials: Individuals designated because they are officials of the Russian government. Although not the basis for the designation, several are also very close advisors to senior Russian government officials. Members of the Inner Circle: Individuals designated because each is controlled by, has acted for or on behalf of, or has provided material or other support to, a senior Russian government official. Companies: Entities designated because they are controlled by, have acted for or on behalf of, or have provided material or other support to, senior Russian government

• fficials.

Sergey V. Aksyonov

Born: Nov. 26, 1972 in Balti, Moldova Position: De facto Prime Minister of Crimea following a disputed Feb. 27 vote in the Crimean parliament.

Evgeni V. Bushmin

Born: Oct. 10, 1958 in Lopatino, Sergachiisky Region, Russia Position: Deputy Speaker

• f

the Federation Council of the Russian Federation; Chairman of the Council of the Federation Budget and Financial Markets Committee Additional information: On March 1, 2014, Bushmin publicly supported the deployment

• f

Russian forces in Ukraine.

Vladimir M. Dzhabarov

Born: Sep. 29, 1952 Position: First Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Additional information: On March 1, 2014, Dzhabarov supported Putin’s appeal regarding the use of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.

Andrei A. Fursenko

Born: July 17, 1949 in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: Aide to Vladimir Putin. Additional information: Fursenko has held a number of positions in the Government of the Russian Federation since 2001, including Minister

• f

Education and Science from 2004 to

• 2012. Although not being designated for

being a member

• f

the Russian leadership’s inner circle, Fursenko first met Putin in 1993 and they remain closely associated.

Sergey Glazyev

Born: Jan. 1, 1961 in Zaporozhye, Ukraine Position: Presidential Advisor to Vladimir Putin

Alexei Gromov

Born: 1960 in Zagorsk, Russia Position: First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office; First Deputy Head

• f

Presidential Administration; First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff

Sergei Ivanov

Born: Jan. 31, 1953 in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: Chief

• f

Staff

• f

the Presidential Executive Office

Victor P. Ivanov

Born: May 12, 1950 in Novgorod, Russia Position: Director of the Federal Drug Control Service

• f

the Russian Federation; Member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Additional information: Ivanov has served in a number of other government positions prior to that; he was Assistant to the President

• f

the Russian Federation from 2004 to 2008; and Deputy Chief of the Administration of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2004. Ivanov joined the KGB in 1977 and eventually rose to become the Deputy Director of the Federal Security Service. Ivanov is a close ally of Putin and served alongside Putin as the chief of staff of the St. Petersburg Mayor’s office in 1994 when Putin was first deputy head of the city’s administration.

Andrei Klishas

Born: Nov. 9, 1972 in Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk, Russia Position: Chairman

• f

the Russian Federation Council Committee

• n

Constitutional Law, Judicial and Legal Affairs and the Development of Civil Society

Vladimir A. Konstantinov

Born: Nov. 9, 1972 in Crimea, Ukraine Position: Unavailable

Vladimir I. Kozhin

Born: Feb. 28, 1959 in Troitsk, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia Position: Head of Administration under the President of the Russian Federation Additional information: Kozhin was appointed the Head of Administration under the President of the Russian Federation by Putin on Jan. 21, 2000. He has served continuously in that position until the present time. Kohzin is responsible for overseeing a staff of 60,000, over a hundred enterprises and institutions including the Kremlin and several other government buildings, and

• ver four thousand vehicles. Kohzin’s

positions have been variously referred to as Head of Administration, Head of the Presidential Affairs Office, Head of the Presidential Business Management Directorate of the Russian Federation, and head of the Presidential Property Management Directorate.

Valentina I. Matviyenko

Born: Apr. 7, 1949 in Shepetovka, Khmelnitsky, Ukraine Position: Federation Council Speaker; Chairman of the Russian Federation Council

Viktor Medvedchuk

Born: Aug. 7, 1954 in Pochyot, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia Position: Unavailable

Yelena B. Mizulina

Born: Dec. 9, 1954 in Bui, Kostroma, Russia Position: State Duma Deputy; Chairman of the State Duma Committee

• n Family, Women and Children

Sergei M. Mironov

Born: Feb. 14, 1953 in Pushkin, St. Petersburg, Russia Position: Member of the Council of the State Duma; Leader of "A Just Russia Party"; Member of the State Duma Committee on Housing Policy and Housing and Communal Services

Sergey Y. Naryshkin

Born: Oct. 27, 1954 in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: Unavailable Additional information: Naryshkin has been the Chairman of the Government Duma of the Federal Gathering of the Russian Federation since December

• 2011. Additionally, he is a member of

the National Security Council of the Russian Federation and of the United Russia party.

Viktor A. Ozerov

Born: Jan. 5, 1958 in Abakan, Khakassia, Russia Position: Chairman of the Security and Defense Federation Council of the Russian Federation Additional information: On March 1, 2014, Ozerov supported Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appeal regarding the use of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.

Oleg E. Panteleev

Born: July 21, 1952 in Zhitnikovskoe, Kurgan Region, Russia Position: First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Parliamentary Issues Additional information: On March 1, 2014, Panteleev publicly supported the deployment

• f

Russian forces in Ukraine.

Dmitry O. Rogozin

Born: Dec. 21, 1963 in Moscow, Russia Position: Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation

Nikolai I. Ryzhkov

Born: Sept. 28, 1929 in Duleevka, Donetsk Region, Ukraine Position: Senator in the Russian Upper House of Parliament; Member of the Committee for Federal Issues, Regional Politics and the North of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Additional information: Ryzhkov publicly supported the deployment of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Igor D. Sergun

Born: March 28, 1957 Position: Lieutenant General; Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff; Deputy Chief of the General Staff; Head of Russia’s military intelligence service

Leonid E. Slutsky

Born: Jan. 4, 1968 Position: State Duma Deputy; Chairman of the Committee on Affairs of the Commonwealth

• f Independent

States; First Deputy Chairman of the Committee

• n

International Affairs; Chairman of the Russian World Fund Administration

Vladislav Y. Surkov

Born: Sept. 21, 1964 in Solntsevo, Lipetsk, Russia Position: Presidential Aide to Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr B. Totoonov

Born: March 3, 1957 in Ordzhonikidze, North Ossetia, Russia Position: Member of the Committee on Culture, Science, and Information, Federation Council of the Russian Federation Additional information: On March 1, 2014, Totoonov publicly supported the deployment

• f

Russian forces in Ukraine.

Vladimir Yakunin

Born: June 30, 1948 in Vladimir Oblast, Russia Position: Chairman of the board of the Russian state-owned company Russian Additional information: Yakunin is being designated because of his official position in the Russian government, but he is also a close confidant of Putin. Yakunin regularly consults with Putin on issues regarding the Russian Railways company. In addition, Yakunin accompanies Putin on many domestic and international visits. Yakunin met Putin while both were working in St.

• Petersburg. Yakunin decided to create a

business center in the city and contacted Putin for his support. In addition, Yakunin became a member of the board

• f

the Baltic Maritime Steamship Company

• n

Putin’s

• instructions. Yakunin and Putin were

also neighbors in the elite dacha community on the shore of Lake Komsomolsk and they served as cofounders

• f

the Ozero Dacha Cooperative in November 1996.

Sergei V. Zheleznyak

Born: July 30, 1970 in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation

Yuri V. Kovalchuk

Born: July 25, 1951 in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: None Position: Kovalchuk is the largest single shareholder of Bank Rossiya and is also the personal banker for senior

• fficials of the Russian Federation

including Putin. Kovalchuk is a close advisor to President Putin and has been referred to as one of his “cashiers,” according to the U.S> Treasury Department.

Arkady and Boris Rotenberg

Born: Dec. 15, 1951 and Jan. 3, 1957, in St. Petersburg, Russia Position: None Additional information: Arkady and Boris Rotenberg have provided support to Putin’s pet projects by receiving and executing high price contracts for the Sochi Olympic Games and state- controlled Gazprom. They have made billions of dollars in contracts for Gazprom and the Sochi Winter Olympics awarded to them by Putin. Both brothers have amassed enormous amounts of wealth during the years of Putin’s rule in Russia. The Rotenberg brothers received approximately $7 billion in contracts for the Sochi Olympic Games and their personal wealth has increased by $2.5 billion in the last two years alone.

Gennady N. Timchenko

Born: Nov. 9, 1952 in Leninakan, Armenia Position: None Additional information: Timchenko is

• ne of the founders of Gunvor, one of

the world’s largest independent commodity trading companies involved in the

• il

and energy markets. Timchenko’s activities in the energy sector have been directly linked to Putin. Putin has investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

Viktor Y. Yanukovych

Born: July 9, 1950 in Yenakiyeve, Donetsk Region, Ukraine Position: Former President of Ukraine

Bank Rossiya

Headquarters: 2 Liter A Pl. Rastrelli, St. Petersburg, Russia Website: www.abr.ru Additional information: Bank Rossiya is the personal bank for senior officials

• f

the Russian Federation. Bank Russia’s shareholders include members

• f Putin’s inner circle associated with

the Ozero Dacha Cooperative, a housing community in which they live. Bank Rossiya is also controlled by Kovalchuk, designated today. Bank Rossiya is ranked as the 17th largest bank in Russia with assets

• f

approximately $10 billion, and it maintains numerous correspondent relationships with banks in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. The bank reports providing a wide range of retail and corporate services, many of which relate to the oil, gas, and energy sectors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014- 03-20/0bama-puts-new-sanctions-on-russian-

• fficials.html