COVID-19 PUBLIC AFFAIRS ADVOCACY TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COVID-19 PUBLIC AFFAIRS ADVOCACY

TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC. THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 2020

Moderator and Presenters

Don Moors Prin incipal

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Scott t Munnoch Senio ior Counsel Cait itlin Drouillard Senio ior Consu sultant Bria ian Klu lunder Senio ior Counsel

TSA Consultants

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Agenda

I. I. Context xt II. II. Federal Measu sures and Parli liamentary ry Update III.

• III. Provincial Measu

sures IV

• IV. Mediu

ium-Term Poli licy Outlo tlook V. V. Long-Term Poli licy Im Implicati tions

• VI. Public Affair

irs Outlo tlook and Str trategy

• VII. Questi

tions s and Answers

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Context – COVID-19 (Global)

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▪Unprecedented economic and so soci ciocultural disr isrupti tion ▪As s of f April il 9: ➢More th than 1.5 .5 mill illion cases s in in more th than 200 countr tries and territ itories. ➢More th than 90,0 ,057 death ths s and more th than 340,6 ,630 fu full ll recoveries.

Context – COVID-19 (Domestic)

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▪As s of f April il 9:

• 19,7

,791 cases and 462 death ths. ▪Provincial states of f emergency: Non-esse sential workplaces, sc schools clo close sed. ▪Borders s clo closed, exce cept t for cr criti itical tr

• trade. In

Inter- provi vincial tr travel disc iscouraged. ▪Self lf-isolati tion ordered by public health auth thoriti ties.

Context – Government Responses

▪‘Whole-of

• f-government’

resp sponses focu cusse sed on: ➢Lim imiti ting sp spread of f th the vir virus ➢Scaling up healthcare se sect ctor capacity ty; and ➢Managing economic fall llout. ▪Governments s are committed to ‘whatever is necessary’.

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Federal Financial Assistance

On March ch 25, , Parli liament t enacted $82 bill illion worth th of f COVID ID-19 19-related fin financial ass ssistance. Progr grams in include: :

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Canada Emergency Response Benefit Progr gram Pending Legi gislation: : 10% Wage Subsidy Loans and Tax Deferrals for Businesses Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy

Federal Liquidity Measures

Bank of f Canada ▪Key in interest rate cu cut t to 0.2 .25%. ▪Quantitative easing until til economic recovery ry “well underway”. ▪Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility and Standing Term Liq iquidity ty Faci cility ty enacted. Offi fice of f th the Superintendent t of f Fin inancial In Insti titu tuti tions ▪Lowered mandatory capital “buffer” for banks, to in increase le lending capacity by over $300 bill illion (t (temporary ry). ). ▪Th The Bank of f Canada to re-assess economic

• utlo

tlook in in th the upcoming weeks s

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Federal – Private Sector Collaboration

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Pla lan to Mobili ilize In Industry try to fig fight t COVID ID-19 19

• ffers fu

funding to combat COVID ID-19, th through a call to act ction for manufactu turers and all ll su suppliers. In Industry try-support t and R&D progr grams s re re-focussed: ▪Str trategic In Innovation Fund: Will ill fast-tr track fu funding for proje jects aim imed at t tr treating or cu curin ing COVID ID- 19. 19. ▪Th The Natio tional Research Council of f Canada: : Will ill partn tner with ith post- se secondary ry educati tion in insti titu tuti tions and SMEs s on R&D.

Federal Parliament Update

▪Parli liament t is is rece cessed unti til April il 20, , but t wil ill be recalled so soon to pass ss le legislation for th the Canada Emergency Wage Subsi sidy. ▪House se of f Commons Fin inance and Health th Committees s are meeti ting to monitor th the Government’s pandemic resp sponse. ▪Federal Budget t date is is

• unknown. Th

The Government t is is re re-draft fting Budget t 2020 for th the COVID ID-19 context xt.

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Ontario Measures

Sprin ing Economic and Fis iscal Update focu cusse sed on COVID ID-19: 19:

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▪Most t tax fili filing deadlines ext xtended until til Augu gust t 31. ▪Employer Health th Tax exempti tion in increased fr from $490,0 ,000 to $1 mill illion for 2020. ▪Workplace Safety ty and In Insu surance Board payments s deferred up to six six month ths. ▪Creation of f a new Regional Opportu tunities s In Investm tment t Tax Credit. t.

Ontario Measures

The ‘Ontario Together’ fu funds publi lic-private collaborati tion on COVID ID- 19. 19. ▪$50 mill illion to help lp busi sinesses provi vide so solu luti tions s or manufactu ture medical su supplies. ▪Creation of f Ontario Jo Jobs and Recovery ry Committee

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Alberta Measures

▪Coll llection of f corporate in income tax deferred until til Augu gust 31. ▪Workers’ Compensation Board premiums deferred until til 2021. . Government to pay 50% of f 2020 premiums for SMEs. s. ▪‘Bits its and Pie ieces’ program invites companies and non-profits ts to provi vide su supplies to combat t COVID ID- 19. 19. ▪Economic Recovery ry Panel to generate poli licy pla lan.

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Quebec Measures

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▪ PACT CTE: Acc ccess ss to $50,0 ,000 to $500,0 ,000 for busin siness. ▪ Emergency aid id for SMEs: s: Acc ccess s to a maxim imum of f $50,0 ,000 per busi siness. ▪ PACME: Up to $100,0 ,000 for emplo loyers to admin inister sk skil ills tr train ining onli line. ▪ Panier ble leu: : Buy lo local pla latf tform. ▪ Cabinet economic recovery ry sq squad cr created.

British Columbia Measures

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$5 bill illion COVID ID-19 Act ction Pla lan: ▪ Employer health th tax payments ts deferred until til September 30 for

• rganizations with

ith a payroll over $500,0 ,000/y /year. ▪ Most t tax payment t deadlines ext xtended until til September 30. ▪ In Incr crease se of f provi vincial carbon tax and PST T regi gistr trati tions on e- commerce dela layed. ▪ $1.5 .5 bill illion allo llocated for lo long-term economic recovery ry – in informed by Economic Recovery ry Task Force.

Medium-Term Outlook: Sector-Specific Aid

▪Th The Federal Government t has s sig signaled in intention to provi vide se sect ctor-specific aid id to se sele lect t se sect ctors: ➢Air irli lines ➢Tourism and hosp spitality ➢Chariti ties ➢Natu tural reso source extr xtraction ▪Th The Government t has s waiv ived lease payments for Canada’s air irports s fr from March ch 2020 – December 2020.

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Medium-Term Policy Outlook

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Can anadia ian Governments ar are vi viewing th the cris risis on

• n a

a 3 3 - 6 6 month ti timelin ine, dependin ing on

• n th

the extent of

• f

th the glo global l an and domestic ic sp spread of

• f COVID-19:

19: ▪ Federal l Government Op Operatio ions Centre modelli ling su suggested th that at t lea least so some of

• f th

the measures to

• figh

fight COVID-19 wil ill l remain in in in pla lace until il Ju July ly. Lo Lookin ing ah ahead, stakehold lders must con

• nsid

ider: ➢ Current Federal programs ar are desig igned for

• r a

a fou

• ur-month ti

timeli line. ➢ The fisc fiscal fir firepower of

• f th

the Provinces is is lim limit ited – can an th they su sustain cr cris isis is le levels ls of

• f healt

lthcare an and economic su support sp spendin ing? ➢ Lon Long-term for

• rmat of
• f Par

arli liaments: : The Federal l Go Government is is exp xplo lorin ing vi virtual l Parli liamentary ry sit

• sittings. The Unit

ited Kin ingdom an and ot

• ther ju

juri risdictio ions alr already develo loping vi virtual l sit sittin ings. ➢ Im Impact of

• f th

the U.S .S. Presidentia ial Ele lection:

• Postponed pri

rimarie ies an and loo loomin ing battle le over mail il-in voting; ; an and

• Dif

Differing glob global l role

• le pla

layed by U.S .S. in in pot

• tential

l Tru rump an and Bid iden Presid idencies.

Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19 19

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Soci cio-economic poli licies im implemented durin ing cr cris ises are hard to roll ll back: ▪ Employment t In Insu surance: Im Implemented in in resp sponse to th the Great Depression. Became permanent t and progr gressively generous s over tim time. ▪ Income taxes: Introduced to fund Canada’s WWI effort, became a permanent source of Federal revenue.

Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19 19

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What is ‘the EI’ of COVID-19? 19? ▪ Expect t press ssure for CEWS and CERB to become permanent: t: ➢ Spain in in intends to im implement a univ iversal basi sic in income in in resp sponse to COVID ID-19. 19. ➢ Germany in intr troduced a CEWS-sty tyle progr gram durin ing th the 2008/0 /09 fin financial cr cris isis s and made it it permanent t aft fterw rwards. s. ▪ Mobil ilization of f th the priv ivate se sector by government t to meet t th the ch challenges of f COVID ID-19 could be applied to oth ther iss issues – e.g.

• g. cli

climate ch change or sm smart t cit cities.

Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19 19

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Glo lobalization and In International Trade ▪Glo lobal competi tition for medical equip ipment durin ing th the pandemic has s sh shaken Canadian le leaders. ▪Expect t stock ckpiling su supplies s for fu futu ture pandemics. ▪Expect t lo longer-term emphasis on domesti tic manufactu turing of f cr criti itical goods – fr from agr gri- food, to energy, to medicines. ▪Expect t renewed debate about t str tronger domestic in infr frastr tructu ture and su supply ch chains – e.g.

• g. tele

lecommunicati tions s and tr transportati tion in infr frastructu ture.

Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19 19

Defi ficits ts and Debt t Servi vicing

• Estim

timated $5 tr trill illion in in fis fiscal reli lief pack ckages for COVID ID-19 worldwide, la largely fu funded by debt. t.

• OECD estim

timates reducti tion in in gr gross ss domestic product in in th the G7 of f 20 to 30%.

• Federal defi

ficit t estim timated to be $184 bill illion in in 2020/2 /21 – th that t is is 8.5 .5% of f Canadian GDP – with ith th the potenti tial to go much ch high igher as s fu furth ther stim timulus measures s announced.

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2020

Lessons From Canada’s Recent Past

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Post t – SARS Cris risis: ▪Public Health th Agency of f Canada / / Chie ief f Medical Offi ficer of f Health th established. ▪Federal, Provi vincial, Territorial Publi lic Health Response Pla lan for Bio iolo logical Events cr created. ▪Ontario la launched an Advi visory ry Committee

• n SARS,

, le leading cr creati tion of f a new public health th agency. Post t – 2008 Fisc iscal Crisi isis: ▪Two-year fis fiscal stim timulus pack ckage ce centr tred on in infr frastructu ture development t – in including th the Home Renovation Tax Credit it. ▪Bail ilout t of f General Motors. s. ▪In Incr crease sed regu gulati tion of f th the fin financial se sector. ▪Demand for natu tural reso sources and house sehold debt t greatly aid ided recovery ry.

Applying Lessons From Canada’s Recent Past

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Post t – COVID ID in in Canada: ▪Sign ignifi ficant t stim timulus sp spending to boost t th the economy, sp specifi fic focu cus s on SMEs s and in infr frastructu ture. ▪Key in industry ry bailouts ts durin ing and aft fter th the pandemic. ▪Role le of f consumer sp spending and glo lobal pric ice

• f

f oil il wil ill be in instr trumental in in economic recovery ry. ▪Parli liamentary ry and oth ther Commit ittees stu tudy and make recommendations for fu futu ture in infectious dise isease pandemics.

Return to Normal?

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Tru rudeau Govern rnment Mandates ▪Expect t a post-pandemic Cabinet sh shuffle and new mandate le letters. ▪Post-Election 2019 prio ioriti ties are on hold ld, (e (e.g.

• g. pharmacare,

, reconciliati tion) ) many may no lo longer be affordable. ▪Is Is th the cu current t mandate defi fined so sole lely by th the resp sponse to COVID ID-19? 19? Min inority ty Parli liament ▪Post t pandemic-debate wil ill be about continued sp spending to bols lster th the economy vs. s. reducing defi ficit/ t/debt. t. ▪ Min inority Lib iberal government t must t broker oppositi tion vie views. ▪Min inority ty contr trol of f th the House

• f

f Commons means Oppositi tion wil ill control th the revi view of f government t performance durin ing th the cr cris isis s and in infl fluence th the post t cr cris isis poli licies. s. CPC PC Lea eadership and Next xt Ele lection ▪Conse serv rvati tive le leadership race ce may be on hold ld for month ths – dynamic of f th the race ce could ch change once ce re-started. ▪How does s a new Leader sh shape th the post t COVID ID debate

Public Affairs Outlook

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▪Governments s will ill remain focu cussed on pandemic resp sponse and economic recovery ry for th the forese seeable fu futu ture ▪All ll non-pandemic-related file files s will ill be vie viewed as secondary, as governments maintain ‘all

• f government’ approaches to COVID-19.

19. ▪Governments s open to disc iscussion about t how th the pandemic is is im impacting organizations

• ver th

the sh short, t, mediu ium, and lo long term. ▪Advocacy efforts s at t th this is tim time sh should be tie tied to th the pandemic or economic recovery. ▪Pla lan for a gr gradual, staged retu turn to a NEW NORMAL, L, with ith fir first t stages starti ting la late sp sprin ing.

Public Affairs Strategy

Communicati ting with ith governments ts today: ▪Th Thin ink outs tside of f th the box – all ll iss issues must t be se seen th through pandemic and recovery le lens. ▪Usin sing vir virtu tual outle tlets s to communicate with ith poli licymakers wil ill be normalized durin ing and post- pandemic. ▪Ask “how can we help governments manage this crisis?”

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Pla Planning for r th the e fu futu ture: e: ▪Tie any ‘ask’ of governments to economic recovery ry. ▪Look for opportunities to su submit your iss issues to governments ts th through pre-budget t consu sultati tions and dir irect t advocacy over su summer and fall ll 2020. ▪Begi gin considering advocacy approach for 2021 and beyond now. . Economic and fis fiscal la landscape ch changed for forese seeable fu futu ture – won’t be able to revi visit t cu current t str trategy in in fall ll or 2021.