COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to May 2020 Working Draft - Key - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to May 2020 Working Draft - Key - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to May 2020 Working Draft - Key Slides 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 Economic Family Refugees 1 Programs Examined

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SLIDE 1

COVID-19 Immigration Effects

2018 to May 2020 Working Draft - Key Slides

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Economic Family Refugees

1

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SLIDE 2

Programs Examined

  • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic, Family and Refugees
  • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International

Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses)

  • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP):

caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)

  • Study Permits (international students)

2

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SLIDE 3

May 2020 Highlights

  • Immigration slightly bounced back compared to April save for TRs
  • PRs: From 4,140 in April to 10,950. May year-to-year decline: Economic -61.9%,

Family -76.6%, Refugees -72.0%

  • Provincial Nominee Program: From 1,295 in April to 2,970. May year-to-year decline: -50.2%
  • TRs/IMP: Slght decline from 16,695 in April to 15,700. May year-to-year decline:

Agreements -53.6%, Canadian Interests -43.3%

  • TRs/TFWP: Decline 13,335 in April to 9,365. May year-to-year decline: Caregivers
  • 70.1%, Agriculture -3.6%, Other LMIA -41.1%
  • Students: From 19,040 in April to 30,785. May year-to-year increase: 10.7 percent

3

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SLIDE 4

Permanent Residents

4

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SLIDE 5

Admissions: PRs by Categories - 2018-20

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Economic Family Refugees

5

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SLIDE 6

Admissions: PRs by Region of Citizenship— 2018-20

25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

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SLIDE 7

Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program

2250 4500 6750 9000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

7

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SLIDE 8

Admissions PRs Canada Total

Year to Year Comparison (monthly)

  • 90%
  • 67.5%
  • 45%
  • 22.5%

0% 22.5% 45% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5

  • 66.8%
  • 84.6%
  • 29.4%

28.1% 32.7%

  • 4.1%

9.5% 18.3% 27.1% 24.7% 26.1% 14.3% 14.8%

  • 6.6%
  • 12.2%
  • 21.1%
  • 20.9%

8

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SLIDE 9

Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program

Year to year comparison (monthly)

  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5

  • 50.2%
  • 71.4%
  • 32.7%

45.6% 64.7% 13.5% 43.2% 38.4% 36.8% 57.3% 43.2% 25.4%

  • 1.6%
  • 29.7%
  • 18.7%
  • 36.2%
  • 32.4%

9

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SLIDE 10

Admissions PRs Canada Total

Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020

  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% Economic Family Refugees

  • 13.1%
  • 5.2%

17.7%

  • 72%
  • 76.6%
  • 61.9%

May 2020 1st Quarter

10

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SLIDE 11

Admissions PNP Provinces

Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020

  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 37.2% 42.3% 25.8% 2.9%

  • 18.8%

7.7%

  • 19.3%
  • 27.2%
  • 63.9%
  • 73%
  • 52%
  • 23.1%

May 2020 1st Quarter

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SLIDE 12

Admissions by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

  • 90%
  • 67.5%
  • 45%
  • 22.5%

0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK

12.4%

  • 20.1%

84.1% 5.3% 16.8% 13.8% 7%

  • 1.8%
  • 14.6%

7.3%

  • 43.1%
  • 87.8%
  • 5.7%
  • 73.5%
  • 49.3%
  • 72%
  • 88.3%
  • 66.7%
  • 76.9%
  • 73.7%

May 2020 Last Quarter

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SLIDE 13

Temporary Residents

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SLIDE 14

IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA

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SLIDE 15

IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20

25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania

15

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SLIDE 16

TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20

25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania

16

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SLIDE 17

IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total

Year to Year Comparison (Monthly)

  • 70%
  • 52.5%
  • 35%
  • 17.5%

0% 17.5% 35% 52.5% 70% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5

IMP TFWP

17

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SLIDE 18

Temporary Residents by Program Canada

Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020

  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 34.6%

  • 21.6%
  • 51.9%

1.2%

  • 20.4%
  • 41.1%
  • 3.6%
  • 70.1%
  • 43.3%
  • 53.6%

May 2020 1st Quarter

18

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SLIDE 19

IMP by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

  • 100%
  • 75%
  • 50%
  • 25%

0% 25% 50% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK

  • 21.8%
  • 10.3%
  • 6.6%
  • 14.9%
  • 12.7%
  • 0.6%
  • 0.4%

10.7%

  • 17.3%

24.4%

  • 90.7%
  • 50%
  • 78.9%
  • 96.7%
  • 90.1%
  • 82.2%
  • 54%
  • 79.4%
  • 57.8%
  • 44.7%

May 2020 Last Quarter

19

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SLIDE 20

TFWP by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

  • 90%
  • 67.5%
  • 45%
  • 22.5%

0% 22.5% 45% 67.5%

Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France

26% 22%

  • 2.5%
  • 29.9%

23.2% 21.2%

  • 25.1%

12.8%

  • 39.7%
  • 25.1%
  • 68.4%
  • 37.9%
  • 75%
  • 81.6%
  • 58%
  • 48.6%
  • 54.7%

30.7% 51.1%

  • 24.6%

May 2020 Last Quarter

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SLIDE 21

Study Permits

21

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SLIDE 22

Study Permit Holders—By Level

30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies

22

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SLIDE 23

Study Permit Holders—By Region

25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania

23

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SLIDE 24

Study Permit Holders

Year to Year Comparison by Province—Last Quarter, May 2020

  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC

  • 32.2%
  • 38.8%
  • 27.8%
  • 34.4%
  • 28.0%
  • 3.4%
  • 35.9%

24.4% 31.6% 8.0% 40.0% 15.2%

  • 24.3%
  • 3.9%

May 2020 1st Quarter

24

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SLIDE 25

Study Permit Holders by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison by Level ( May 2020/2019) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits

India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria

  • 45%

0% 45% 90% 135% 180% 75.7% 122.6%

  • 28.6%

86.2%

  • 20.8%

171.7% 40.3% 14% 1.6%

  • 15.9%

Number 6,935 9,130 1,550 540 2,255 570 1,145 350 590 975

25

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SLIDE 26

Study Permit Holders by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits

  • 90%
  • 45%

0% 45% 90% 135% 180% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria

  • 35.6%
  • 18.7%
  • 36.2%
  • 30.4%
  • 30.7%
  • 27.9%
  • 34.8%
  • 27.7%
  • 51.5%

1.2% 75.7% 122.6%

  • 28.6%

86.2%

  • 20.8%

171.7% 40.3% 14% 1.6%

  • 15.9%

May 2020 Last Quarter

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SLIDE 27

Research Questions

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  • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries

were most affected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly?

  • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source

country?

  • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or

tensions with China a factor?

  • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for

which countries?

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SLIDE 28

Annex

28

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SLIDE 29

Top Countries Share of Total (2018)

10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%

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SLIDE 30

Top Countries (2018)

Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870

30