COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to May 2020 Working Draft - Key Slides 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 Economic Family Refugees 1
Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs) : Economic, Family and Refugees • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP) : International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) : caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) 2
May 2020 Highlights • Immigration slightly bounced back compared to April save for TRs • PRs: From 4,140 in April to 10,950. May year-to-year decline: Economic -61.9%, Family -76.6%, Refugees -72.0% • Provincial Nominee Program: From 1,295 in April to 2,970. May year-to-year decline: -50.2% • TRs/IMP: Slght decline from 16,695 in April to 15,700. May year-to-year decline: Agreements -53.6%, Canadian Interests -43.3% • TRs/TFWP: Decline 13,335 in April to 9,365. May year-to-year decline: Caregivers -70.1%, Agriculture -3.6%, Other LMIA -41.1% • Students: From 19,040 in April to 30,785. May year-to-year increase: 10.7 percent 3
Permanent Residents 4
Admissions: PRs by Categories - 2018-20 Economic Family Refugees 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 5
Admissions: PRs by Region of Citizenship— 2018-20 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 6
2250 4500 6750 9000 Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program 0 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 7 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4
Admissions PRs Canada Total Year to Year Comparison (monthly) 45% 22.5% 32.7% 28.1% 27.1% 26.1% 24.7% 18.3% 14.8% 14.3% 9.5% 0% -4.1% -6.6% -12.2% -20.9% -21.1% -29.4% -22.5% -66.8% -84.6% -45% -67.5% -90% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 8
Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program Year to year comparison (monthly) 80% 60% 40% 64.7% 57.3% 45.6% 20% 43.2% 43.2% 38.4% 36.8% 25.4% 13.5% 0% -1.6% -18.7% -29.7% -32.4% -32.7% -36.2% -20% -50.2% -71.4% -40% -60% -80% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 9
Admissions PRs Canada Total Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020 17.7% 20% 0% -5.2% -13.1% -20% -40% -60% -61.9% -72% -76.6% -80% Economic Family Refugees May 2020 1st Quarter 10
Admissions PNP Provinces Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020 60% 42.3% 37.2% 40% 25.8% 20% 7.7% 2.9% 0% -20% -18.8% -19.3% -23.1% -27.2% -40% -52% -60% -63.9% -73% -80% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC May 2020 1st Quarter 11
Admissions by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 90% 84.1% 67.5% 45% 22.5% 16.8% 13.8% 12.4% 7.3% 7% 5.3% 0% -1.8% -5.7% -14.6% -22.5% -20.1% -45% -43.1% -49.3% -67.5% -66.7% -72% -73.5% -73.7% -76.9% -90% -87.8% -88.3% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK May 2020 Last Quarter 12
Temporary Residents 13
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 14
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 15
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 16
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total Year to Year Comparison (Monthly) IMP TFWP 70% 52.5% 35% 17.5% 0% -17.5% -35% -52.5% -70% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 17
Temporary Residents by Program Canada Year to Year Comparison by Category—Last Quarter, May 2020 40% 34.6% 20% 1.2% 0% -3.6% -20% -20.4% -21.6% -40% -41.1% -43.3% -51.9% -53.6% -60% -70.1% -80% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA May 2020 1st Quarter 18
IMP by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 50% 24.4% 25% 10.7% 0% -0.4% -0.6% -6.6% -10.3% -12.7% -14.9% -17.3% -25% -21.8% -44.7% -50% -50% -54% -57.8% -75% -78.9% -79.4% -82.2% -90.1% -90.7% -100% -96.7% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK May 2020 Last Quarter 19
TFWP by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 67.5% 51.1% 45% 30.7% 26% 23.2% 22% 21.2% 22.5% 12.8% 0% -2.5% -22.5% -24.6% -25.1% -25.1% -29.9% -37.9% -45% -39.7% -48.6% -54.7% -58% -67.5% -68.4% -75% -81.6% -90% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France May 2020 Last Quarter 20
Study Permits 21
Study Permit Holders—By Level Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 22
Study Permit Holders—By Region Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 23
Study Permit Holders Year to Year Comparison by Province—Last Quarter, May 2020 May 2020 1st Quarter 40.0% 40% 31.6% 30% 24.4% 20% 15.2% 8.0% 10% 0% -3.4% -3.9% -10% -20% -24.3% -30% -27.8% -28.0% -32.2% -34.4% -35.9% -40% -38.8% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 24
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison by Level ( May 2020/2019) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits Number India -15.9% 6,935 China 1.6% 9,130 Korea 14% 1,550 France 40.3% 540 Vietnam 171.7% 2,255 Brazil -20.8% 570 Iran 86.2% 1,145 -28.6% Japan 350 USA 122.6% 590 75.7% 975 Nigeria -45% 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% 25
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits 180% 171.7% 135% 122.6% 86.2% 90% 75.7% 45% 40.3% 14% 1.6% 1.2% 0% -15.9% -18.7% -20.8% -27.7% -27.9% -28.6% -30.4% -30.7% -34.8% -45% -35.6% -36.2% -51.5% -90% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria May 2020 Last Quarter 26
Research Questions • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries? 27
Annex 28
Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% 29
Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 26,540 Jamaica Philippines 35,050 USA 10,200 China 85,100 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 21,910 Philippines Syria 12,045 China 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 11,205 India Nigeria 10,920 UK 7,380 Iran 7,040 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 8,675 USA Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 8,105 UK France 6,175 Korea 940 Philippines 4,075 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 7,250 France UK 5,660 Japan 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 30
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